• Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for October 17th on 06:09

    October 17, 2011 /

    These are my links for October 17th from 06:09 to 20:39:

  • Occupy Protests,  Occupy Wall Street

    Occupying Wall Street Energy Primarily a “LEFT” Coast Affair

    October 17, 2011 /

    Nate Silver of the New York Times has this analysis.

    The nascent movement known as Occupy Wall Street had its largest single day of protests on Saturday. And a funny thing happened: most of the action was far from Wall Street itself.

    No, I don’t mean at Zuccotti Park — which is not, technically, on Wall Street. Nor do I mean Times Square — all of 19 minutes away from Wall Street on the ‘C’ train — where large crowds of protesters gathered on Saturday.

    Instead I mean Europe, where crowds in cities like Rome, Barcelona and Madrid were estimated at 200,000 to 500,000 per city (more, probably, than the protests in the United States combined). And I mean California and other parts of the western United States, where crowds were proportionately much larger than in the Northeast or elsewhere in the country.

    Leaving aside Europe, where the Occupy protests merged, not always seamlessly, with those sponsored by left-wing groups, the distribution of protests throughout the United States may reveal something about the political orientation of the protesters.

    Yep, from the West – where there is higher unemployment as well.

    Read it all.

  • CA-24,  Elton Gallegly,  Tony Strickland

    CA-24: Rep Elton Gallegly Third Quarter Fundraising Report Reveals $800K Cash on Hand

    October 17, 2011 /

    California Congressional District 24

    Third quarter fundraising reports are out and Rep. Elton Gallegly, my Congressman, reports over $823 K cash on hand.

    • Contributions: $229,221
    • Expenditures: $157,407
    • Cash on Hand: $823,988
    • Debt: $0

    Here are possible candidates, who may indeed challenge the long-time Republican incumbent.

    • Steve Bennett – Ventura County Supervisor (D), Ventura
    • Richard Francis – Former Ventura City Councilman (D)
    • David Pollock – Moorpark City councilman (D)
    • David Cruz Thayne – Westlake Village Businessman, tennis coach

    Here is the poop on the district:

    Gallegly saw his home drawn into Buck McKeon’s district, but he has represented Ventura County for years. With the additional of Democratic coastal communities in Ventura County added to this district and a resurgence of Democrats in the county this district is very competitive. Gallegly has been rumored to be retiring and this district may just push him over the edge. Democrats have 6-point registration advantage, Obama won this district by 16-points, but Brown lost it by 1-point. GOP state Senator Tony Strickland is looking at running here, though the district is competitive, there are no term limits.

    With this fundraising activity, Gallegly is not laying down or looking like a retirement is imminent. He is active in GOP circles in the district and is home most weekends. Elton would either have to live just outside the district or move a few miles to be within the CA-24 borders.

    However, he is widely know throughout Ventura County, having represented most of the CA-24 for decades.

    I look for Elton to run for re-election, barring any health problems. If he doesn’t, look for California State Senator Tony Strickland to enter the race.

  • Marijuana,  Polling

    Poll Watch: 50% Favor Legalization of Marijuana

    October 17, 2011 /


    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    A record-high 50% of Americans now say the use of marijuana should be made legal, up from 46% last year. Forty-six percent say marijuana use should remain illegal.

    When Gallup first asked about legalizing marijuana, in 1969, 12% of Americans favored it, while 84% were opposed. Support remained in the mid-20s in Gallup measures from the late 1970s to the mid-1990s, but has crept up since, passing 30% in 2000 and 40% in 2009 before reaching the 50% level in this year’s Oct. 6-9 annual Crime survey.

    According to the National Institute on Drug Abuse, “Marijuana is the most commonly abused illicit drug in the United States.” The National Survey on Drug Use and Health in 2009 found that “16.7 million Americans aged 12 or older used marijuana at least once in the month prior to being surveyed, an increase over the rates reported in all years between 2002 and 2008.”

    It has been made essentially legal here in California with the medicinal marijuana laws and the decriminalizing of personal possession. If you are caught tomorrow here with a small amount, you will be guilty of an infraction and have to pay a $100 fine.

    Over the weekend, it was announced the California Medical Association called for the legalization of marijuana.

    Eventually, in a generation or two, pot may be legalized, but like alcohol and tobacco there are problems with the drug. The voting public will have to weigh the negative effects of the inebriation versus the benefits of the high.

    Here is a chart of the polling demograhics:

  • Election 2012,  Electoral College,  President 2012

    President 2012: Obama Targets a Few Key States

    October 17, 2011 /

    The 2008 Presidential Electoral College Results

    Well, DUH.

    In addition to his bus trip this week through North Carolina and Virginia, the Wall Street Journal notes President Obama will “will visit another key region, the Mountain West, next week, where Hispanic voters helped put Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico in the president’s column in 2008.”

    “The focus on both regions is meant to give the president multiple routes to victory and to reduce his dependence on Ohio and Florida, the giant electoral prizes that have long defined presidential politics. The Obama campaign still plans to fight for both, but its climb has become steeper, as polls show that many working-class white voters have soured on the president.”

    ” “A campaign official noted that if Mr. Obama were to win all the states Democrat John Kerry took in 2004, he would claim an Electoral College majority in 2012 if he could win both North Carolina and Virginia, or one of those states plus Colorado and Nevada. Democrats won none of those states in 2000 or 2004, but Mr. Obama won all four in 2008.”

    Just look at the Electoral College map.

    President Obama will have a difficult time winning in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina, according to recent polls. Nevada will also be a stretch for Obama (the economy has been devastated there), particularly if Mitt Romney is the GOP nominee.

    Colorado is doable for the President, but if he loses all of the rest, he is toast.

    If Nevada, in the below map, goes to Obama then the race would be a 269 vs. 269 tie and the House of Representatives would decide who the next President is (likely GOP).


    You can go over here and run the numbers and scenarios.

  • Polling,  Unemployment Rate

    Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Rate Decreases Sharply in Early October to 8.3% – But…..

    October 17, 2011 /


    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 8.3% in mid-October — down sharply from 8.7% at the end of September and 9.2% at the end of August. A year ago, Gallup’s U.S. unemployment rate stood at 10.0%. While seasonal hiring patterns may explain some of this improvement, the drop suggests the government could report an October unemployment rate of less than 9.0%.

    And, underemployment is down sharply.

    Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is thus at 17.5% in mid-October, down sharply from 18.3% at the end of September — and its lowest measurement of the year.

    The Chart.

    But, Gallup polling is not the government and they issue their poll with caveats.

    Gallup’s mid-month U.S. unemployment report covers the same period the government uses to collect data for its October unemployment report, which will be released on the first Friday in November. As a result, Gallup’s data lead the government’s report by several weeks. Modeling based on statistical comparisons of Gallup’s unemployment and job creation data to the government’s seasonally adjusted data over time suggests that the Bureau of Labor Statistics could report an October unemployment rate of less than 9.0%.

    The sharp drop in Gallup’s unemployment and underemployment rates may partly result from seasonal factors. Halloween has become the third-largest sales season for many retailers, who are likely increasing their staffing accordingly. In addition, some stores may have been minimally staffed and are beginning early to add employees for the holidays. The surge on Wall Street during early October may also have provided some relief for business owners as they evaluate the prospects of the U.S. economy and their potential sales. Whatever the reasons, Gallup’s Job Creation Index tends to confirm this improvement in the job market because it has been near its highs for the year in early October.

    Of course, the precipitous and counterintuitive nature of this sharp improvement in the U.S. job market, as measured by Gallup over the past couple of weeks, means it could be something of an aberration that will dissipate during the weeks ahead. It might even have been missed if not for Gallup’s Daily tracking. But for now, this job market improvement appears real — and, in turn, that implies the Main Street economy may be somewhat stronger than Wall Street generally perceives.

    So, while this is good news about the American economy it may be too soon to cheer and may be short-lived at that.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for October 14th through October 17th

    October 17, 2011 /

    These are my links for October 14th through October 17th:

  • Twitter

    @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-10-17

    October 17, 2011 /

    Powered by Twitter Tools