• Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Nevada Poll Watch: Romney 46% Vs. Obama 46%

    October 27, 2011 /
    Barack Obama continues to suffer from the Nevada blues. Only 44% of voters there approve of him to 53% disapproving and he ties Mitt Romney in a state that he won by 12 points in 2008. Along with New Hampshire, Nevada is probably the swing state where Obama has fallen the furthest.

    There are two main things causing Obama problems in the Silver State. He’s under water with independents, at 42/53.  And he’s lost a lot of support with Democrats, only 78% of whom approve of him with 17% disapproving. He’s also at 6/94 with Republicans, but that’s pretty much par for the course. His hopes for any meaningful amount of crossover support faded a long time ago. While Obama’s in good standing with Hispanics and African Americans in the state, he’s at a woeful 36/61 with white voters, mirroring his trouble with them nationally.

    As unpopular as Obama is, there’s only one Republican who can catch up with him in the state and that’s Mitt Romney. They tie at 46%. Romney has an unusual amount of appeal to Nevada Democrats- 27% of them have a favorable opinion of him and 13% say they would vote for him in a hypothetical match up with Obama. That’s what sets him apart from the rest of the GOP field.

    Obama leads the rest of the Republicans, but he doesn’t match his 2008 margin of victory against any of them. He’s up 49-46 against both Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich, 47-43 against Ron Paul, and 49-41 against Michele Bachmann. Paul is actually the only one of the Republicans who leads Obama among independents, 45-43.
    Here is a summary:
    • 49% Obama (D), 41% Bachmann (R)
    • 49% Obama (D), 46% Cain (R)
    • 49% Obama (D), 46% Gingrich (R)
    • 47% Obama (D), 43% Paul (R)
    • 51% Obama (D), 41% Perry (R)
    • 46% Obama (D), 46% Romney (R)
    Nevada is a key battleground state that the GOP needs to win the Presidency next year. There are scenarios where the entire Presidential race depends upon how Nevada votes.

    Look for intense television and direct mail advertising by both sides in Nevada. But, are there that many voters that can be persuaded?

    Well, both parties will try and spend $ millions.

  • Dan Lungren,  E-Verify,  Save America's Food and Economy

    Save America’s Food and Economy Conference Call with Rep. Dan Lungren

    October 27, 2011 /
    Carol Chandler discusses her experiences and the need for a strong, stable, farming workforce.

    I was on a conference call earlier this afternoon with Craig Regelbrugge of SAFE (Save America’s Food and Economy) and California Representative Dan Lungren. The issue of the call is protecting America’s agricultural labor force in light of E-Verify and specifically HR-2164.

    Here is their fact sheet page.

    Current bill – H.R.2164 – “The Legal Workforce Act”

    Summary, status and full text of legislation currently under consideration in Congress which mandates use of E-Verify by all employers in the United States. The bill was introduced on June 14, 2011 by Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX).

    Background –
    What is E-Verify?

    A government primer on the Internet-based employee eligibility system managed by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

    Background –
    E-Verify Wiki

    Overview of E-Verify and its history, including references to federal and state government application.

    Past proposals, AgJOBS –
    S. 1038

    Senate version of AgJOBS compromise legislation introduced by Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ).

    Past proposals, AgJOBS – H.R. 2412

    House version of AgJOBS compromise legislation introduced by Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA).

    Analysis –
    ”Silent Raids” & E-Verify immigration enforcement are destroying U.S. farms

    Commentary by Amherst College Copeland Fellow and migrant farm worker expert Daniel Altshuler examines the impact E-Verify, as it currently stands, is having on America’s farms.

    Research & Analysis – “Why Domestic Agriculture Needs New, Workable Farm Labor Alternatives Now”

    Key messages from the National Council of Agricultural Employers (NCAE) 2010 Survey of H-2A Employers.

    Research – The Census of Agriculture

    Every five years, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service releases a detailed census on the state of American agriculture.

    Research – USDA Economic Research Service

    The economic and policy analysis division of the USDA. Access to information and data on the U.S. agricultural industry.

    And, Rep. Dan Lungren discussed his new legislation to work as a companion bill to HR-2164. A link to its summary is here.

    So, why SAFE and why is Big AG (like the Western Growers Association) afraid of E-Verify?

    Well, obviously, a large majority (maybe as much of 80%) of their agricultural labor is comprised of migrant illegal immigrants (probably most from Mexico). With a successful E-Verify program, they would lose all of their field workers, crops would not be harvested, cattle raised, milk gathered and their businesses would fail.

    In the meantime, Americans would need to eat and would simply import fruit, vegetables and meat from other countries, like South American and China. America’s food supply would be outsourced as America’s farmlands lay fallow.

    So, what does SAFE propose?

    A guest worker program on the scale of a million plus workers a year. But, a program under the control of the United States Department of Agriculture. This is the essence of Rep Lungren’s bill.

    We have a dilemma here.

    America needs E-Verify to remove the “jobs magnet” for illegal immigration. However, America needs labor to harvest its food supply.

    This proposal appears to be a suitable, temporary compromise. American agriculture needs to find better and more efficient methods to develop and harvest their crops in a less labor intense method.

    America’s farmers and dairymen should NO LONGER be dependent upon foreign workers to conduct business. Our national security demands it.

    Stay tuned, as I will have more later…..

  • Occupy Protests,  Occupy Wall Street

    Occupy Oakland’s Amazon.com Wishlist

    October 27, 2011 /

    No, I am not making this up.

    The Occupy Wall Street protesters who have had the run of Oakland’s streets lately have an Amazon.com Wishlist.

    Really… and it is here.

    Guess they need these goods for their general strike, which they have called on November 2nd.

    After Occupy Oakland protesters reconvened at Frank Ogawa Plaza Wednesday night and voted to organize a city-wide general strike on November 2, a jubilant crowd poured out into the city streets, dancing and cheering.

    But their attempts to head across the bay to join the Occupy San Francisco group were thwarted by BART officers, who shut down the 12th Street BART entrance as protesters–including those towing a giant stereo system on wheels–tried to make their way into the station. For about ten minutes, protesters chanted “Police brutality!” and “This is what democracy looks like!” at the BART officers before moving on to the 14th Street and Broadway intersection.

    The crowd then massed itself into an impromptu march that took protesters past the Glenn E. Dyer detention facility at 7th Street and Washington, then back up Broadway, and then down to San Pablo Avenue near the Greyhound bus station, where they waved to security guards to come join them and passing cars honked in support. They passed West Grand and then circled back towards downtown.

    Police officers, some in riot gear, were stationed near the jail as well as at 12th Street between Broadway and Franklin, and at San Pablo and West Grand, but officers did not interact with the marchers. When a few protesters stopped to face the officers or take their pictures, other marchers chided them, crying “Get back in the march!” and “Do not provoke!”

    The marchers played music as they went, dancing to hits by the Jackson 5 and Missy Elliot, forming a line that at 11:45 pm filled the street for several city blocks.  As they continued along city streets, police cars and motorcycles appeared to be accompanying them along parallel side streets, monitoring their progress block by block without directly interfering.

    Protesting in the 21st century – what would Saul Alinsky think?

  • Barack Obama,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Showing Some Modest Improvement – 43% Approval

    October 27, 2011 /

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    President Barack Obama’s job approval rating has shown modest improvement in the past week. His latest rating, based on Oct. 24-26 Gallup Daily tracking, is 43%, and his approval has been at or above 42% in each of the last seven days. In the prior two weeks, his averages were generally at or below 40%.

    More broadly, Obama’s approval rating averaged 40% from Oct. 1-19, but 43% since Oct. 20.

    The increase in Obama’s approval rating could be tied to two recent major foreign policy events — the death of Libyan President Moammar Gadhafi and Obama’s announcement that virtually all U.S. troops would be withdrawn from Iraq by Dec. 31. Additionally, the U.S. stock market has shown gains this month, particularly in the past week.

    The bit of positive momentum in Americans’ evaluations of the president reverses the generally downward trend seen in recent months, including a personal low 41% quarterly approval average in his recently completed 11th quarter in office.

    Obama also enjoyed a rally in approval earlier this year, after the United States’ military found and killed Osama bin Laden. That rally persisted for several weeks before ultimately fading, with Obama’s approval rating declining further in subsequent months.

    Even with slightly greater approval in recent days, Obama remains below where most other elected first-term presidents were at similar points in their presidencies. Only Jimmy Carter, with a 31% approval average in October 1979, had a worse rating in October of his third year in office.

    The President has also been out on the road campaigning and campaigning hard.

    In the meantime, the Republicans continue to decide who will be their nominee. However, it is becoming apparent that Mitt Romney will be contesting Obama next year.

    President Obama remains in the danger zone for re-election.

  • Mitch Daniels,  President 2012

    President 2012: How’s That Mitch Daniels Candidacy Looking?

    October 27, 2011 /

    Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels speaks at Rider University in Lawrenceville, N.J. More than a year out from Election Day, all sorts of Republicans, including Daniels, are making a point of keeping themselves in the national spotlight, stoking speculation that they’re positioning themselves as potential running mates for the eventual GOP presidential nominee

    Phil Klein looks at a Daniels what if?

    Many conservatives have been desperate for an alternative to Mitt Romney, but he still finds himself ahead in the first four primary states, because no single rival has been able to consolidate opposition to him or convince the establishment wing of the GOP that they’d be plausible. (BTW, I’m using “establishment,” roughly speaking, as a way of describing those who place more emphasis on electability than ideology.)

    Daniels, no doubt, had his share of detractors, given his social issues “truce” comments, uncertainty about whether he’d be open to raising taxes, and skepticism over his foreign policy views among hawks. But his governing record in Indiana was well to the right of Mitt Romney’s in Massachusetts. If Romney can overcome past support for abortion, gun control, the McCain-Kennedy immigration approach, and government-run health care — among other liberal positions — Daniels’ deviations from conservatism would have looked mild by comparison. In addition, his command of policy details and strong executive record would have allowed him to compete with Romney for establishment support. It’s hard to imagine Daniels having a deer in the headlights moment in a debate.

    Mitch Daniels would be the nominee, if he had run.

    Will Mitt Romney choose him as a Vice Presidential candidate?

    Only if he wants to win.

    And, if Romney loses, then Daniels will be th epresumptive front-runner for 2016.

  • Pinboard Links,  Polling,  President 2012,  The Morning Flap

    The Morning Flap: October 27, 2011

    October 27, 2011 /

    • Self-Reported Gun Ownership in U.S. Is Highest Since 1993– The new result comes from Gallup’s Oct. 6-9 Crime poll, which also finds public support for personal gun rights at a high-water mark. Given this, the latest increase in self-reported gun ownership could reflect a change in Americans’ comfort with publicly stating that they have a gun as much as it reflects a real uptick in gun ownership.
    • The new result comes from Gallup’s Oct. 6-9 Crime poll, which also finds public support for personal gun rights at a high-water mark. Given this, the latest increase in self-reported gun ownership could reflect a change in Americans’ comfort with publicly stating that they have a gun as much as it reflects a real uptick in gun ownership.Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) are more likely than Democrats (including Democratic leaners) to say they have a gun in their household: 55% to 40%.
    • While sizable, this partisan gap is narrower than that seen in recent years, as Democrats’ self-reported gun ownership spiked to 40% this year.Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) are more likely than Democrats (including Democratic leaners) to say they have a gun in their household: 55% to 40%. While sizable, this partisan gap is narrower than that seen in recent years, as Democrats’ self-reported gun ownership spiked to 40% this year.
    • Polls: 12 House pickup chances for Democrats – New polls out Thursday of 12 House districts now held by Republicans in four states showcase some prime pickup opportunities for Democrats next year.
    • The House Majority PAC, which can raise unlimited money to support Democratic candidates with an independent expenditure campaign, commissioned Public Policy Polling to survey 12 districts where the redistricting process has been completed.
    • In every one, less than 50 percent of voters said they would like to see the incumbent Republican reelected next year. And a majority in all but one expressed a negative opinion of the Republicans in Congress.
    • Ali Lapp, executive director of House Majority PAC, argues that “Republican control of the House is in serious jeopardy.”
    • Redistricting in Arkansas, California, Illinois and Wisconsin – where PPP polled the dozen districts – could help Democrats.
    • Some Republicans who have not faced competitive races in years now face serious trouble. Illinois Rep. Tim Johnson, for example, has been drawn by the Democratic legislature into a treacherous district where just 33 percent of voters would like to reelect him, according to the new poll, while 53 percent would prefer someone else.
    • “Congressional Republicans have become very unpopular, very fast, across a very wide variety of districts and that’s going to make dozens of incumbent GOP members vulnerable for reelection next year,” PPP director Tom Jensen, a respected Democratic pollster, writes in a three-page memo.
    • Democrats face a very heavy lift to get the 25 seats they need to regain a majority. That kind of turnover is rare, and Republicans have solidified their holds on certain seats in states where they controlled the redistricting process. Historically, the kind of turnover from the last three election cycles is very rare, yet polls like these give Democrats confidence.
    • Which begs the question: At what point is he simply required to put his best foot forward in the Hawkeye State?
    • The CNN/TIME Magazine poll shows Romney with a statistically insignificant lead on businessman Herman Cain, 24 percent to 21 percent, and is one of two major polls this month to show Romney with a small lead in Iowa. (The other being an NBC/Marist College poll from early in the month, before Cain really picked up steam.)
    • Despite this, Romney has visited the state only three times this year and continues to dance around the concept of running a full-throated campaign in it. He skipped the Ames Straw Poll two months ago and, most recently, became the only major GOP presidential candidate who hasn’t sworn off Iowa (read: Jon Huntsman) to skip the state GOP’s Ronald Reagan Dinner.
    • Romney’s campaign is smartly lowering expectations in a state that will be tougher than the others for him and that he doesn’t necessarily need; after all, the CNN poll shows he’s got a great chance at winning basically any of the early states (he leads in all of them), and his chances are especially good in New Hampshire and Nevada, the latter which CNN didn’t poll but has shown large leads for Romney.
    • Is Perry dropping off the debating circuit? – It’s hard to believe that Texas Gov. Rick Perry would bug out of the debates, but that is what his campaign was hinting about yesterday. Politico reports: “Perry spokesman Mark Miner said the issue is using time wisely, and noted their campaign is not alone in that. ‘I think all the campaigns are expressing frustration right now,’ Miner told POLITICO. ‘We said we would do Michigan but the primaries are around the corner and you have to use your time accordingly.’?”
    • I am not aware of any other candidate thinking of fleeing the chance for free airtime to sell himself or herself to the American people. Should Perry back out after a series of awful debate outings, the message would plainly be: This is too hard for me.
    • Perry is big on sport metaphors and has said his low standing in the polls won’t send him home at halftime. But if he absents himself from the debates, especially the foreign policy debate on Nov. 15, the unmistakable message is that he really isn’t ready for prime-time.

    Enjoy your morning!

  • Twitter

    @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-10-27

    October 27, 2011 /

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