President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Faces an Uphill Path to Re-Election in Key Battleground States

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The 2008 Presidential Electoral College Results

Indeed, President Obama does, especially due to the economy in those states.
For President Obama, the path to a second term is going to be an uphill climb.

While Americans across the nation are downbeat about the economy and the future, a special USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds that voters in a dozen key battleground states for the 2012 election are in an even deeper funk about their lives, Obama’s tenure and the nation’s politics.

One year before Election Day, the debut Swing States survey charts a narrower and more difficult course to victory for Obama than he navigated four years ago — and shows opportunities for Republicans in some states that have gone Democratic for decades.

Obama has “had some really good ideas … but he’s struggling with trying to get his ideas into place and dealing with Congress, and he hasn’t done a very good job with that,” Mary Jo Jones, 57, of Grand Rapids, Mich., said in a followup interview after being surveyed. She supported Obama in 2008 but would consider switching in 2012 to former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, if Republicans nominate him. “He seems to be a pretty good businessman, and he might have some ideas to help us on the economy.”

Michigan, which has backed the Democratic candidate in the last five presidential elections, is among the 12 swing states likely to determine the outcome next year. The others are Florida, North Carolina and Virginia in the South; Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico in the Mountain West; Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin in the Midwest; and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania in the Northeast.

The American economy has been so poor in these states, for far too long. American voters are looking for action and I do not think they will be seeing it with Obama.

Watch the polling in these states. If all of them start to break against the President, he could be toast earlier rather than later.

Pinboard Links

The Afternoon Flap: November 3, 2011

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These are my links for November 3rd PM.

  • Cain Catches Flak, but Will It Shoot Down His Candidacy?– Washington was all a-Twitter (literally) Monday over Politico’s story about the sexual-harassment charges against Herman Cain — and about Cain’s serial self-contradictions.Faithful Fox News viewers saw him in the afternoon saying he didn’t know the terms of a settlement reached with the complainants and then saw him tell Greta Van Susteren in the 10 p.m. hour that he did.

    The Politico story, quoting no named sources, described Cain’s alleged misconduct as “conversations allegedly filled with innuendo or personal questions of a sexually suggestive nature” and “physical gestures that were not overtly sexual.”

  • Ron Paul Fever at Zuccotti Park– I hear many names bandied about in Zuccotti Park, and not just at the fringes. Among the most popular are Karl Marx, Hugo Chávez, Michael Moore, Paul Ehrlich, and Dennis Kucinich. But today I heard a less predictable one spoken more widely: Ron Paul.There are three key reasons for this, I think. The first is a good old marriage of convenience, the same sort of unholy alliance as arose in the early 20th century when Baptists and bootleggers came together to argue for the prohibition of alcohol in America. You see, Ron Paul is angry, too, and he wants to “restore” America to its old ways. The majority of Paul’s policy positions may be radically different, but much of his rhetoric is in line with Occupy Wall Street’s, particularly his anti-Hamiltonian conviction that the banks have callously denatured the United States. For many, this alone is enough to make him an ally.

    The protesters I spoke to today were predominantly appalled when I told them of Paul’s attitude towards Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the federal government in general, not to mention of his deregulatory zeal and staunch pro-life commitment. But, ultimately, this didn’t matter as much as the fact that he wants “change,” too. Revolution first, details later — we’ll just leave the specifics to Working Group 48.

  • Who Dropped the Dime on Cain? – Fred Thompson– In a case of an untimely death, the first thing the cops do when they arrive at the home of the deceased is to try to determine whether the death was the result of a self-inflicted wound and, if it wasn’t, whether a member of the family did it. Statistics show that these are good places to start looking. If the recent events surrounding sexual-harassment allegations against Herman Cain sink his campaign, the same postmortem may be appropriate.First, Cain’s self-inflicted wounds. When the allegations became public, he started defending himself with an unloaded gun. Even an admirably unconventional campaign cannot defy certain principles. One would be never to eat at a place with an “Eats” sign in the window. Another is that when it hits the fan, you should get your recollection and your facts as straight as you can before you start talking. You can’t outwit the media at their own game if you don’t know the game they’re playing. Now it’s not just about whether he was overly friendly with Miss Molly at the Fourth of July picnic — it’s also about catching him in inconsistencies.
  • If Cain sinks, will Gingrich benefit? – In the early summer of 2007, an over-the-hill John McCain, his campaign in shambles, was given up for dead in his race for the Republican presidential nomination. He wouldn’t give up, though, and by sheer force of will managed to grab his party’s spot on the ticket — and lead it to a crushing defeat.
    In the early summer of 2011, an over-the-hill Newt Gingrich, his campaign in shambles, was given up for dead in his race for the Republican presidential nomination. He wouldn’t give up, though, and by sheer force of will has managed to talk himself back into contention for his party’s spot on the ticket. But do Republican voters really want to be led to another crushing defeat?
    That, alas, is almost sure to happen if Gingrich is the Republican standard bearer. Like McCain, he’s quite old by any non-Reagan presidential standards (indeed, if inaugurated he would be just four months younger than Reagan was on his Inauguration Day). Like McCain, he has a nasty temper (although, to be fair, it’s nowhere near as nasty as McCain’s). Like McCain, he has a sordid history with, uh, relationships, although his is more well known than McCain’s and does not enjoy the excuse of a “pass” to re-sow wild oats due to brutal years in captivity.Short answer is: MAYBE.
  • Poll Watch: Voters Evenly Divided As to Whether Allegations Against Cain Are Serious and True– Two-thirds of America’s voters recognize that Herman Cain is the Republican candidate who has been accused of sexual harassment. Voters are evenly divided about the allegations and most Republicans believe the public airing of the charges suggest Cain is considered a serious threat to win the nomination.The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 39% believe the allegations against Cain are at least somewhat likely to be serious and true.  Thirty-eight percent (38%) disagree and 23% are not sure. Those figures include 17% who believe it’s Very Likely and 11% who say Not at All Likely.
  • The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election– In the last four national elections, generational differences have mattered more than they have in decades. According to the exit polls, younger people have voted substantially more Democratic than other age groups in each election since 2004, while older voters have cast more ballots for Republican candidates in each election since 2006.The latest national polls suggest this pattern may well continue in 2012. Millennial generation voters are inclined to back Barack Obama for reelection by a wide margin in a matchup against Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate who has run the strongest against Obama in many polls. By contrast, Silent generation voters are solidly behind Romney.

    In between the youngest and the oldest voters are the Baby Boom generation and Generation X. Both groups are less supportive of Obama than they were in 2008 and are now on the fence with respect to a second term for the president.

  • Gallup Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Improves to 8.4% | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Gallup Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Improves to 8.4% #tcot #catcot
  • The Blame Game on Herman Cain – NYTimes.com – The Blame Game on Herman Cain
  • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: It Is Running at Night Season: 7 Tips for Safety – It Is Running at Night Season: 7 Tips for Safety
  • President 2012: Mitt Romney Welcomes Rick Perry to California with New Attack Ad » Flap’s California Blog – President 2012: Mitt Romney Welcomes Rick Perry to California with New Attack Ad
  • Chantix IS Unsuitable for First-Line Smoking Cessation | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Chantix IS Unsuitable for First-Line Smoking Cessation
  • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: The Morning Drill: November 3, 2011 – The Morning Drill: November 3, 2011
  • House Issues Subpoenas to White House Regarding Bankrupt Solyndra | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – House Issues Subpoenas to White House Regarding Bankrupt Solyndra #tcot #catcot
  • Numbers USA Sponsors Twitter Campaign to Pass H.R. 2885 and E-Verify | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Numbers USA Sponsors Twitter Campaign to Pass H.R. 2885 and E-Verify #tcot #catcot
  • Charlie Hebdo Reprints Mohammad Cartoon Defending the Freedom to Poke Fun | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Charlie Hebdo Reprints Mohammad Cartoon Defending the Freedom to Poke Fun #tcot #catcot
  • The Morning Flap: November 3, 2011 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – The Morning Flap: November 3, 2011 #tcot #catcot

Gallup Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Improves to 8.4%

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According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is at 8.4% at the end of October, down from 8.7% in September and 9.2% in August. Unemployment was at 8.3% in mid-October — its lowest level since Gallup began continuous monitoring in January 2010. Gallup’s unemployment measure is also now much lower compared with a year ago — it stood at 9.4% at the end of October 2010.

Underemployment is also down.

Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is 17.8% at the end of October — down from 18.3% at the end of September.

The chart:

The government’s report is due out tomorrow and will be based on data from mid-october.

The government’s seasonally adjusted October unemployment report, to be released Friday, will be based on data collected during mid-October, around the time Gallup released its mid-month findings. At that time, Gallup suggested that the government would report a drop in the U.S. unemployment rate for October. The continued improvement Gallup has found in the job situation since mid-month reinforces this idea. Gallup modeling suggests the government’s unemployment rate could fall below 9.0% for October.

Gallup’s October data are consistent with Wednesday’s Challenger, Gray, & Christmas report showing that planned layoffs in October were at their lowest level since June. The decline Gallup finds in unemployment also aligns with the 2.5% increase in U.S. GDP for the third quarter and the Federal Reserve’s statement on Wednesday suggesting the economy is strengthening modestly. Additionally, Gallup Daily tracking shows economic confidence, consumer spending, and job creation improving in October.

But, the changes may be based on seasonal factors which the government uses in calculating its figures.

However, a modest improvement in unemployment may give Americans some confidence going into the Christmas shopping season.

It is the best time to be obtaining a job in almost two years and as Gallup says: a temporary job is better than no job at all.


House Issues Subpoenas to White House Regarding Bankrupt Solyndra

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The House GOP is not happy with the Obama Administration and claim the White House is stonewalling the issue.
Showing a growing frustration with the the Obama administration, congressional Republicans on Thursday authorized their second subpoena this week, demanding White House documents related to failed solar technology company Solyndra.

By a 14-9 party-line vote the Energy and Commerce Committee’s investigative subcommittee authorized issuing a subpoena for any White House documents related to Solyndra, which received renewable energy loan guarantees under President Obama’s stimulus program. The request for documents could include details of the president’s own travel and communications.

Democrats said it was “unprecedented” to subpoena documents from the president’s executive office like this, but Republicans said they’ve run out of patience with White House “stalling.”

“We simply cannot allow the executive branch at its highest levels to pick and choose what they will produce, or whether they will produce anything at all,” said Rep. Cliff Stearns, the Florida Republican who runs the investigative panel.

Thursday’s subpoena came just a day after the Judiciary Committee’s immigration subcommittee voted along party lines to authorize a subpoena for Homeland Security records related to illegal immigrants the department has declined to pursue deportation cases against.

Together they mark an escalation as Republicans have become increasingly aggressive in pushing back against what they see as administration stonewalling of oversight by the new GOP majority in the House.

In each case, the vote only authorizes a subpoena. It’s up to the chairmen of the full committees to actually issue them.

What did the Obama Administration know and when did they know it?

New documents released yesterday indicate the Administration wanted to bail out Solyndra gain before they collapsed. There is too much government money that has apparently wasted to sweep this under an Obama rug.

If  there was favoritism, or improper conduct, then the White House should cooperate with the Congress to investigate the matter.

More here: House GOP votes to subpoena White House Solyndra documents

“I regret that we have reached this point,” Rep. Cliff Stearns (R-Fla.), the chairman of the committee’s Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee and the GOP’s pointman on the Solyndra investigation, said Thursday. “At this point in time, I am not confident that we will have a good faith response from the White House without issuing a subpoena.”

“Sometimes, in the course of an investigation, we find ourselves unable to secure necessary evidence,” full committee Chairman Fred Upton (R-Mich.) said. “House Rules expressly give us the power of subpoena to compel cooperation in these instances. It is a tool we use sparingly and only as a last resort. Today, it is our last resort.”

In a statement, White House spokesman Eric Schultz said that the administration had “cooperated extensively” with the committee’s request for documents. “All of the materials that have been disclosed affirm what we said on day one: this was a merit based decision made by the Department of Energy,” he said.

“We’d like to see as much passion in House Republicans for creating jobs as we see in this investigation,” Schultz added.