Much has changed since we last ran our NBC presidential battleground map back in early November. (Has it REALLY been that long?) The economy and labor market have improved; President Obama’s approval numbers have risen after his debt-ceiling blues; and the Republican primary contest has turned into a knock-down, drag-out fight. And that explains why our Electoral College scorecard has gone from 196 D vs. 195 R (with 147 toss-up electoral votes) back in November, to 222 D vs. 197 R with (119 toss-up). The big changes: We’ve moved Michigan and Wisconsin from toss-up to Lean Dem, reflecting Obama’s improved strength in both states; we’ve moved New Hampshire from Lean GOP to Toss-up; and we’ve moved Iowa from Toss-up to Lean GOP. The map and the changes on it are based on the public and private polling we’ve seen, as well as our conversations with operatives studying the battlegrounds. Again, we do not make our judgments SOLELY on public polling or based on poll averages.
No big deal here.
The race continues to come down to just a few states: New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Nevada.
Here is my take on the race (and, my Electoral College map), some months ago and I don’t think things have changed much.
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
However, should Nevada flip to Obama, there would then be a 269 vs. 269 tie and the House of Representatives (GOP controlled and destined to stay that way) will decide the Presidency.
This will either be a close race with my scenario above or President Obama will win an easy re-election.
I guess we will find out, once the Republicans choose their nominee.