The Morning Flap: March 12, 2012

A Newt Ginrich – Rick Perry GOP Ticket?

These are my links for March 9th through March 12th:

• President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Too close to call in Alabama and Mississippi – Tuesday looks like it’s going to be a close election night in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.

  Gingrich and Santorum are both more popular than Romney in each of these states. In Mississippi Gingrich’s net favorability is +33 (62/29) to +32 for Santorum (60/28) and +10 for Romney (51/41). It’s a similar story in Alabama where Santorum’s at +32 (63/31), Gingrich is at +26 (58/32), and Romney’s at only +13 (53/40).

  The reason Romney has a chance to win despite being less popular in both states is the split in the conservative vote. In Mississippi 44% of voters describe themselves as ‘very conservative’ and Romney’s getting only 26% with them. But he’s still in the mix because Gingrich leads Santorum only 35-32 with them. In Alabama where 45% of voters identify as ‘very conservative,’ Romney’s at just 24%. But again he remains competitive overall because his opponents are so tightly packed with those voters, with Santorum at 37% and Gingrich at 31%.

• Doonesbury strip on Texas abortion law dropped by some US newspapers – Doonesbury cartoonist Garry Trudeau has defended his cartoon strip about abortion, which several US newspapers are refusing to run, saying he felt compelled to respond to the way Republicans across America are undermining women’s healthcare rights.

  The strip, published on Monday and scheduled to run all week, has been rejected by several papers, while others said they were switching it from the comic section to the editorial page.

  In an email exchange with the Guardian, Trudeau expressed dismay over the papers’ decision but was unrepentant, describing as “appalling” and “insane” Republican state moves on women’s healthcare.

• Gingrich, Perry deny they seek a joint ticket – Newt Gingrich’s spokesman on Sunday dismissed speculation about a potential Gingrich-Rick Perry ticket being announced before the Republican National Convention in August, saying the two camps have not discussed the idea “at any level.”

  A report by Fox News cited “sources close to the Gingrich campaign” saying preliminary conversations about such a ticket have begun with the hopes that pairing the former Speaker of the House and the Texas governor might unite evangelical, tea party and other conservative voters.

  But Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond said no one in the campaign has reached out to Perry’s camp about a shared ticket.

• Campaign 2012, 6th Congressional District: No cakewalk election for Rep. Spencer Bachus –
• Former Sarah Palin Adviser Says ‘Game Change’ Was ‘True Enough to Make Me Squirm’ –
• McCain slams ‘Game Change’ movie –
• Reid: Kerrey ‘promised nothing’ to run –
• Grayson Involved In Crash With Lynx Bus – –
• Amid anger over Afghan killings, U.S. faces growing public weariness about war –
• Speaking With the Speaker –
• Untitled (http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/election-expectations-move-obamas-way-yet-rising-gas-prices-fuel-gop-pushback/) – WaPo/ABC poll: Americans by a broad 65-26 percent disapprove of how the president is handling the price of gas
• Traitor Jane Fonda Wants Rush Limbaugh Kicked Off the Radio – Really? | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Traitor Jane Fonda Wants Rush Limbaugh Kicked Off the Radio – Really?
• @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-12 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-12
• Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News – Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News
• Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News – Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News
• Many California Election Filing Deadlines Extended to Wednesday » Flap’s California Blog – Many California Election Filing Deadlines Extended to Wednesday
• Untitled (http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ccrov/pdf/2012/march/12083em.pdf) – The 2012 filing deadline was extended in dozens of seats w/ no incumbent. Here’s the full list:
• Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News – Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News
• Candidate-filing deadline extended in 3 Ventura County districts – The secretary of state has determined that the deadline for candidates to file to run for office will be extended until Wednesday in three political districts that include portions of Ventura County — the 26th Congressional District, the 19th Senate District and the 38th Assembly District.

  State law provides for such extensions whenever an incumbent eligible to run for re-election decides not to do so.

• Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News – Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News
• Maxwell Keith – Attorney for Two of Charles Manson Family Has Died | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Maxwell Keith – Attorney for Two of Charles Manson Family Has Died
• Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News – Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles
• Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – The Iron Dome system has intercepted 90 percent of missile attacks on urban centers during the latest rocket bombardment from Gaza.

  The expensive systems were inaugurated last year amid controversy over its worth. A primitive Kassam rocket costs terrorists only a few hundred dollars while each Iron Dome anti-missile missile costs $50,000.

  Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu stated Saturday night, “We will continue to improve home front defense including by means of additional Iron Dome systems, the effectiveness of which was shown again over the weekend.”

• Nicolle Wallace On Sarah Palin ‘Game Change’ Movie – By Nicolle Wallace

  “Game Change” is not a movie about Sarah Palin. And it’s definitely not about staffers like me.

  It’s a film about the vast, murky gray area in which the majority of politics takes place. I’m not talking about what you see on television: the speeches, the rallies, the debates. I’m talking about the man-in-the-mirror moments, the decision-making that takes place behind closed doors, with the counsel of very few men and women, and with high stakes and irreversible consequences.

  Watching “Game Change” is like reliving the most tumultuous professional roller coaster ride on which I’ve ever been. It brought back the highs – Palin’s surprise selection and her glorious moment on stage at our national convention – and the now well-documented lows.

  In the end, it’s also a film about how far great men like John McCain are willing to go in order to serve the country they love. Ultimately, every candidate makes the same calculation he did: ”Whom can I select to help me win, and will that person make a good governing partner if we prevail.”

  Movies like “Game Change” bring politics to life in an important way by showing the human beings behind the headlines and the caricatures. And on the eve of another national presidential contest, it’s probably a good idea to remind ourselves that all our candidates are human.

• Video: Support @Flap – Gregory Flap Cole in the Los Angeles Marathon | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Video: Support @Flap – Gregory Flap Cole in the Los Angeles Marathon
• Beautiful day in Austin. Really like this place! #sxsw – RT @LizMair: Beautiful day in Austin. Really like this place! #sxsw
• Day By Day March 11, 2012 – Off Course | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Day By Day March 11, 2012 – Off Course
• Bennett faces 3 challengers; no takers against Long and Zaragoza – Bennett faces 3 challengers; no takers against Long and Zaragoza
• Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-11 » Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-11
• @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-11 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-11
• Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-10 » Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-10
• @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-10 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-10
• Dodgers FYI: Clayton Kershaw effective in spring debut – latimes.com – RT @latimesbaseball: Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw effective in spring debut
• ‘Hack’ allows first-gen iPad owners to install iPhoto (hands-on video) | The Verge – ‘Hack’ allows first-gen iPad owners to install iPhoto (hands-on video)
• California lawmaker drops bid to oust Fish and Game commissioner – latimes.com – RT @LATPoliticsCA: California lawmaker drops bid to oust Fish and Game commissioner
• Why Job Growth Is Likely to Slow – If you looked only at the monthly jobs report, you could start getting pretty optimistic about the American economy. The largest, broadest survey of employment — a survey of businesses — shows the best job growth in more than five years over the last 12 months, with the pace mostly accelerating in recent months. The other survey that the Labor Department does — of households — shows even faster job growth, suggesting that the business survey may be understating the economy’s strength.

  But the jobs report isn’t the only measure of economic activity, and another major measure — of gross domestic product — doesn’t look quite so cheerful. The most likely situation is that job growth will slow in coming months, economists say, which will make President Obama’s economic narrative a bit more complicated than it now is.

  On Friday, Macroeconomic Advisers, one of the most closely watched forecasting firms, reduced its estimate of economic growth in the current quarter to an annual rate of 1.8 percent, from 2 percent. And 1.8 percent growth does not generally lead to very strong job growth. In the fourth quarter of last year, by comparison, the economy grew 3 percent.

  Beyond the current quarter, forecasters expect the economy will grow at an annual rate of 2 to 2.5 percent for the rest of the year, according to Bloomberg.

• Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12 – Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12
• Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12 – Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12
• CA-25: Dante Acosta to Run for Congress Against Rep Buck McKeon | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – CA-25: Dante Acosta to Run for Congress Against Rep Buck McKeon
• Gloria Allred Loses Her Mind – Wants Rush Limbaugh Prosecuted | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Gloria Allred Loses Her Mind – Wants Rush Limbaugh Prosecuted
• Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12 – Wisconsin Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12
• Yes, Scott Walker has governed as he campaigned – With the recall effort against Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker heating up, Democrats are recycling the old claim that somehow Walker’s public union reforms came out of nowhere once he took office.

  Earlier this week, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that one of the Democrats hoping to challenge Walker, Kathleen Falk, “repeatedly accused Walker of being dishonest during his 2010 campaign, citing as a prime example his decision to all but eliminate collective bargaining for most public workers even though he didn’t talk about it during his run for office.”

  To be sure, the eventual budget repair bill did include measures that weren’t specifically proposed during the campaign, but it’s typical to campaign on broad outlines and fill in the specifics when elected. The bottom line is that Walker’s reforms shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anybody. For more, check out this still relevant February 2011 Stephen Hayes piece.

• Wisconsin Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12 – The head of the Wisconsin state elections board recommended Friday that any recall elections against Gov. Scott Walker and five other Republicans be held on May 15 and June 12.

  Government Accountability Board director Kevin Kennedy said in a memo to the full board that those dates make the most sense given the work that remains to be done verifying signatures on recall petitions and other timing concerns related to the proximity of the April 3 presidential primary election.

  The full board was to discuss the issue Monday and if it agrees, ask a Dane County judge for more time on Wednesday.

  The attorney for Democrats who launched the recall efforts said he would oppose the request in court.

  “That seems totally unreasonable and unnecessary and it would change the character of the election,” attorney Jeremy Levinson said. Democrats have consistently argued the recalls should be held as soon as possible.

  Republican Party spokesman Ben Sparks refused to comment on the proposed election dates. Instead, he reiterated the party’s position that multiple recalls be held on the same dates to cut down on election expenses. The elections board has also advocated for scheduling only two election dates.

  Under the judge’s order currently in place, any primary elections would take place May 1 and the general election would happen May 29.

• Obama Photo of the Day | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Obama Photo of the Day
• The real unemployment rate? It sure isn’t 8.3% – Even if it were a legit number, the 8.3% February unemployment rate, released today by the Labor Department, would be simply terrible—and unacceptable. It would still extend the longest streak of 8%-plus unemployment since the Great Depression. The U.S. economy hasn’t been below 8% unemployment since Obama took office in January 2009. And back in May 2007, unemployment was just 4.4%.

  But, unfortunately, the true measure of U.S. unemployment is much, much worse.

  1. If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7% then vs. 63.9% today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.8%.

  2. But what if you take into the account the aging of the Baby Boomers, which means the labor force participation (LFP) rate should be trending lower. Indeed, it has been doing just that since 2000. Before the Great Recession, the Congressional Budget Office predicted what the LFP would be in 2012, assuming such demographic changes. Using that number, the real unemployment rate would be 10.4%.

• President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Beating Romney in Four Key Battleground States of VA, FL, OH, NC | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Beating Romney in Four Key Battleground States of VA, FL, OH, NC
• Bill O’Reilly | Anita Dunn PR Firm | Sandra Fluke | The Daily Caller – O’Reilly: Former Obama adviser Anita Dunn’s PR firm representing Sandra Fluke