• Polling,  Unemployment Rate

    Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%

    May 17, 2012 /

    According to the latest Gallup unemployment poll.

    U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, declined slightly to 8.2% in mid-May from 8.3% in April. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.5% in mid-May, down slightly from 8.6% last month.

    These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted over the 30 days of April 16 to May 15, including interviews with 30,236 U.S. adults, 67.5% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate incorporates the adjustment used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the same month of the previous year.

    On an unadjusted basis, the mid-May unemployment rate, if sustained the rest of the month, would represent a new monthly low in unemployment since Gallup began tracking it daily in January 2010, down from the previous low of 8.3% recorded last month and from 9.2% last May.

    Incorporating the upward seasonal adjustment of 0.3 percentage points that the BLS applied last May yields a seasonally adjusted rate for mid-May of 8.5%. This is substantially higher than the seasonally adjusted monthly low of 7.9% for Gallup’s U.S. unemployment rate in January of this year, but significantly lower than the 9.5% in May 2011.

    Nothing earth shattering here with the unemployment rate.

    A big drop is what the Democrats and President Obama’s re-election campaign wants, but I do not think this will happen anytime soon.

    Underemployment is also down slightly.

    Gallup’s U.S. underemployment measure, which combines the unemployed with those working part time but looking for full-time work, is 18.0% in mid-May, compared with 18.2% in April. The underemployment rate declined to as low as 18.0% last July but changed direction in August. It increased to 19.1% in February before plunging to 18.0% in March and 18.2% last month.

    So, what this mean?

    There is slow American economic growth and American businesses may be holding back because of either the upcoming election or the Supreme Court’s ruling on ObamaCare.

    Also, in a warning sign for the government, unemployment numbers may have improved a little, simply due to the fact that long term unemployed people have stopped looking for work.

    Moreover, there is also considerable variance of Gallup’s unemployment numbers and those released by the Obama Administration. Go figure.

    Gallup’s unemployment measurements now and in April stand in sharp contrast to those the government provided. The BLS reported an April unadjusted unemployment rate of 7.7% and an adjusted unemployment rate of 8.1%. These findings were generally seen as inconsistent with the state of the economy and the findings of the BLS payroll survey. There were not enough jobs created last month — even after the size of the workforce declined — to lower the unemployment rate as much as the government reported.

    It is possible that the government’s unemployment numbers for May could revert back to the Gallup trend, as occurred in March and during much of late 2011. Still, there was a considerable gap between Gallup’s results and those of the government in February and April. Regardless, Gallup’s preliminary unemployment numbers for May, based on continuous daily measurement, show a slight improvement compared with April.

  • Pinboard Links,  The Morning Flap

    The Morning Flap: May 17, 2012

    May 17, 2012 /

    These are my links for May 16th through May 17th:

    • Romney presses Obama on debt with aid of prop clock– Mitt Romney continued to drive a debt-oriented message here on Wednesday morning, extending his “prairie fire” of debt metaphor with the assistance of a prop.In a nod to the independent voters who pushed the Sunshine State into the Democratic column in 2008, Romney noted that both parties were responsible for pushing the debt to the “incomprehensible” levels – which were represented on a giant prop debt clock behind him.
    • Harvard’s ‘woman of color’– The curious case of the Native American roots — or lack thereof — of Democratic Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren just keeps getting curiouser.Now the New England Historical Genealogical Society, which originally announced they found evidence of Warren’s Cherokee heritage, has revised its finding.Tom Champoux, spokesman for the society, said “We have no proof that Elizabeth Warren’s great great great grandmother O.C. Sarah Smith either is or is not of Cherokee descent.”
    • Dems in despair on Wisconsin– On Monday, local party officials began complaining bitterly about the lack of resources national Democratic groups are committing to the recall effort in Wisconsin. “We are frustrated by the lack of support from the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic Governors Association,” a top Wisconsin Democratic Party official told The Washington Post’s Greg Sargent.Back in January, the complaints were coming from the other end: National Democrats were irked that labor unions and others planned to spend tens of millions of dollars to recall Gov. Scott Walker —leaving less for President Obama’s re-election drive and congressional contests.But amid increasingly poor polling numbers for Walker’s challenger, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, Democrats and their allies at the national level seem to be re-thinking their commitment to the Wisconsin race. NBC’s Chuck Todd asked recently if the DNC would be sending more cash to help Barrett; the answer from Stephanie Cutter, Obama’s deputy campaign manager, was strongly noncommittal: “I don’t know the answer to that question, on the money.”

      A new Public Policy Polling poll shows Walker up on Barrett by 50 percent to 45 percent, the same margin PPP found a month ago, and similar to other recent polls.

    • Why I Think Obama Is Losing– So what’s the answer? Obama’s big problem, I think, is that he is no longer the president he said he would be. Above all, he’s stopped trying to be that president.The astonishing enthusiasm for Obama in 2008 rested heavily on his promise to change Washington and unify the country. You can argue about whose fault it is that Washington is even more paralyzed by tribal fighting than before–in my view, it’s mostly (though not entirely) the GOP’s fault. For whatever reason, Obama failed to bring the change he promised. That would be forgivable, so long as he was determined to keep trying. But he isn’t determined to keep trying. His campaign message so far boils down to this: You just can’t work with these people. I tried, they’re not interested, so it’s war. If they want bitter partisan politics, they can have it.My instinct tells me this is a losing strategy.
    • Health care reform: GOP preps plan for ruling on law– House Republican leaders are quietly hatching a plan of attack as they await a historic Supreme Court ruling on President Barack Obama’s health care law.If the law is upheld, Republicans will take to the floor to tear out its most controversial pieces, such as the individual mandate and requirements that employers provide insurance or face fines.
    • Senate Democrats Achieve a New Standard of Irresponsibility– The Senate voted on five budgets today, at theinsistence of Republican senators. The result was revealing: no Senate Democrat voted in favor of any budget. This is consistent, of course, with the fact that the Democrat-led Senate has refused to adopt a budget, in violation of federal law, for the last three years. Still, it is a little shocking to see that not a single Democrat was willing to vote in favor of any budget, even the most irresponsible.President Obama’s budget fared the worst; it lost, 99-0. This means that the presidents FY 2013 budget has now been rejected by the House and Senate by a combined vote of 513-0. Earlier today, as Paul noted in a post a little while ago, Obama demanded a “serious bipartisan approach” to the nation’s budgetary crisis. Bipartisan? He can’t even get a single Democrat to support his radically irresponsible proposals.
    • Obama budget defeated 99-0 in Senate– President Obama’s budget suffered a second embarrassing defeat Wednesday, when senators voted 99-0 to reject it.Coupled with the House’s rejection in March, 414-0, that means Mr. Obama’s budget has failed to win a single vote in support this year.Republicans forced the vote by offering the president’s plan on the Senate floor.

      Democrats disputed that it was actually the president’s plan, arguing that the slim amendment didn’t actually match Mr. Obama’s budget document, which ran thousands of pages. But Republicans said they used all of the president’s numbers in the proposal, so it faithfully represented his plan.

    • Republicans Weigh Rev. Wright Attack Against Obama– A group of Republican strategists and a conservative billionaire have devised an advertising attack on President Obama that highlights his connection to Rev. Jeremiah Wright, a controversial figure in the 2008 campaign, The New York Times reports.The $10 million plan, which is still being weighed, was overseen by Republican media consultant Fred Davis and was commissioned by Joe Ricketts, the founder of TD Ameritrade, who is increasingly using his fortune to impact this year’s election. A super PAC affiliated with Ricketts played a major role in Nebraska’s Republican primary on Tuesday.“The world is about to see Jeremiah Wright and understand his influence on Barack Obama for the first time in a big, attention-arresting way,” reads a proposal by the group, which was obtained by The Times.
    • Scott Walker leads in new Wisconsin recall poll – The Washington Post – RT @FixRachel: Walker leads in new Wisconsin recall poll, GOP has edge in enthusiasm
    • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » Flap Listed as 2012 Top Dentist in Social Media – Flap Listed as 2012 Top Dentist in Social Media
    • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » The Morning Flap: May 16, 2012 – The Morning Flap: May 16, 2012
    • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: Gregory Flap Cole Named Top Dentist in Social Media for 2012 – Gregory Flap Cole Named Top Dentist in Social Media for 2012
    • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » Day By Day May 16, 2012 – Board Meeting – Day By Day May 16, 2012 – Board Meeting
  • Animals

    Day By Day May 17, 2012 – Boom Boom

    May 17, 2012 /

    Day By Day by Chris Muir

    Boom in the Presidential race: The New York Times is reporting that a conservative Super Pac is planning a Jeremiah Wright ad attack on President Obama.

    A group of high-profile Republican strategists is working with a conservative billionaire on a proposal to mount one of the most provocative campaigns of the “super PAC” era and attack President Obama in ways that Republicans have so far shied away from.

    Timed to upend the Democratic National Convention in September, the plan would “do exactly what John McCain would not let us do,” the strategists wrote.

    The plan, which is awaiting approval, calls for running commercials linking Mr. Obama to incendiary comments by his former spiritual adviser, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., whose race-related sermons made him a highly charged figure in the 2008 campaign.

    “The world is about to see Jeremiah Wright and understand his influence on Barack Obama for the first time in a big, attention-arresting way,” says the proposal, which was overseen by Fred Davis and commissioned by Joe Ricketts, the founder of the brokerage firm TD Ameritrade. Mr. Ricketts is increasingly putting his fortune to work in conservative politics.

    The $10 million plan, one of several being studied by Mr. Ricketts, includes preparations for how to respond to the charges of race-baiting it envisions if it highlights Mr. Obama’s former ties to Mr. Wright, who espouses what is known as “black liberation theology.”

    The group suggested hiring as a spokesman an “extremely literate conservative African-American” who can argue that Mr. Obama misled the nation by presenting himself as what the proposal calls a “metrosexual, black Abe Lincoln.”

    Big boom…..

  • Twitter

    @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-05-17

    May 17, 2012 /

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