Julia Brownley,  Tony Strickland

Tony Strickland Win Changes Outlook for CA-26

Tony Strickland CA 26: Fundraising Totals Show Republican Tony Strickland Far in the Lead

California State Senator Tony Strickland at January’s Congressional announcement

Tony Strickland’s victory in the California June Presidential Primary election this week has changed the outlook for the 26th Congressional District, according to Stuart Rothenberg.

Democrats avoided complete disaster by spending close to a million dollars to ensure Assemblywoman Julia Brownley made it into the top two. Brownley (26 percent) got a late start, represented just 16 percent of the congressional district and had to fend off Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks, who was running as an Independent and received 19 percent of the vote. But the race doesn’t get any easier for Democrats. State Sen. Tony Strickland (R) finished first on Tuesday with 45 percent and had over $700,000 in the bank on May 16. Given Strickland’s showing and Brownley’s need to get virtually all of Parks’ vote, we are moving this contest from Toss-Up/Tilt R to Lean Republican.

The Democrats are apt to throw lots of money behind California Democratic Assemblywoman Julia Brownley but the fact remains Brownley is a carpetbagger. She may have represented parts of Ventura County (gerrymandered parts of heavily Hispanic Oxnard), but until a few weeks before running, she lived in Santa Monica. She has moved to Oak Park, but Strickland and the GOP Super PACS will exploit this large hole in Brownley’s candidacy.

And, Strickland will have plenty of campaign cash to mail, run television and radio ads and run a social media campaign.

I really do not think this will be a close race.

Strickland will win easily.

But, I fully expect the Democrats to throw everything at Strickland.