As you know, I am really into polling since it gives us a scientific method to measure what is happening in the political world.
So, let’s take a look at who did the best.
This list and the graphic above is for the NATIONAL Presidential polls for 2012.
1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
5. Purple Strategies
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
27. National Journal
As everyone, particularly on the right, started criticizing polling models, it drew attention to sampling and methodology. This is a good thing.
Often campaigns use a recently release poll (even if an outlier) to spin a meme of momentum for their candidate or a lack therof for their opponent.
Polling averages like Nate Silver’s and Real Clear Politics help aggregate the myriad of national and state oriented polls. I have found it best to look at the averages and it smooths out the results.
The pollsters WERE pretty accurate – some better than others.