A pretty obvious conclusion since they are spending the money.

It was the expenditure heard ’round the political world: The GOP is pouring $3 million into the race against Sen. Barbara Boxer on behalf of GOP nominee Carly Fiorina.

The news Monday that the National Republican Senatorial Committee planned to dump that much money into California, this late in the campaign, was enough to cause a double take. The NRSC was already in for $4.8 million in coordinated spending — making the nearly $8 million total expenditure in California the most the committee has publicly committed to any state this year and the most ever in California.

At the heart of the GOP investment is a belief that the race is much closer than Tuesday’s Public Policy Polling survey, which showed Boxer up 52-43, or last week’s Los Angeles Times poll that gave the incumbent an 8-point lead.

“For their turnout model to be accurate, it would have to mean a worse environment for Republicans than 2006,” a GOP operative familiar with the NRSC’s spending plans said of the Times survey. “We have two tracking polls that both show Carly only down 1 point and Boxer below 50, which is a bad place for an incumbent to be after so much spending.”

Recent polling also has convinced the GOP that voters are differentiating between Fiorina and gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman, who appears to be sinking in her race against former Gov. Jerry Brown.

“Carly can win even if Meg doesn’t win,” the operative said.

I, also, feel California voters may very well split their ballot and vote for Jerry Brown, the Democrat but hedge their bets and vote for Fiorina, the Republican. A sort of balancing, as it were. Besides, Carly Fiorina does not have the “Nanny” problem of Whitman and Boxer is, well, an unpopular figure – ma’am, i mean Senator.

There is a throw the bums out mentality even in Left Coast Blue California but voters just can’t vote for Meg – so they vote for Carly instead and send Babs to retirement.

I bet all of the next few polls show Fiorina within the margin of error and Boxer well be below 50 per cent – a disaster for an incumbent.

But, stay tuned as Carly mends from an infection and tries to heal up in time for last minute campaigning.

Anything can happen folks, as this race goes down to the wire.

This ad is part of a $3-million independent expenditure by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). Obviously, the ad targets California women voters a demographic which Carly Fiorina needs to do better according to numerous polls. The $3-million expenditure should guarantee statewide play throughout the last week of the campaign.

This morning’s Real Clear Politics poll average graph is above and the race continues to be a toss up, tied. The poll average table is here.

So, what does this mean for California voters?

Non-stop political ads from Barbara Boxer and Carly Fiorina over the next week.

There had been some uncertainty as to whether the Fiorina Campaign would be able to compete with Boxer on the number of ad impressions over the last week of the campaign but that concern has been laid to rest.

With outside groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce already pouring in millions to defeat California Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, the National Republican Senatorial Committee announced a $3-million independent expenditure for television ads in the final week of the campaign.

The committee, which rarely makes major expenditures in California, had already spent the maximum allowed — $4.8 million — in coordinated expenditures with GOP nominee Carly Fiorina’s campaign in what it views as a highly competitive race.

“This critical spending continues to demonstrate our confidence that the California Senate race is neck-in-neck thanks to Barbara Boxer’s out-of-touch, reckless Washington spending agenda,” committee spokeswoman Amber Marchand said in a statement.

The new independent expenditure comes after Fiorina announced she was putting another $1 million of her own money into the campaign, allowing her to match Boxer’s cash on hand for the final stretch.

It appears that Fiorina will be able to match the Boxer ad buys over the next seven days. This is bad news for Boxer.

With the polls so very close (also bad news for the incumbent Senator, Boxer), the ground operations of the California Republicans (GOTV), including the Meg Whitman for California Governor Campaign may very well decide this U.S. Senate race.

California U.S Senate candidate Carly Fiorina is “on air” with a new Fred Davis television ad.

From the press release:

As part of a continuing effort to highlight the stark contrast between incumbent senator Barbara Boxer’s failed tenure in Washington and Carly Fiorina’s commitment to common-sense problem solving, the Fiorina campaign today launched the fifth 30-second ad of its general election statewide television advertisement campaign, titled “Crushed.”

“Barbara Boxer’s legacy after 28 years of failed leadership in Washington is bleak, as Californians across the state have watched their livelihoods be crushed, with more than 2.25 million people out of work, losing income and facing the very real possibility of losing their homes. Yet Barbara Boxer is so out of touch that she continues to try to fool voters into believing her economic policies, including the stimulus, have worked,” said Carly for California Campaign Manager Marty Wilson. “The people of this state deserve a leader in Washington who will fight to get our economy moving forward again. Californians have the opportunity to make a change for California’s future by voting for new leadership in the U.S. Senate on Election Day – and that begins by retiring Barbara Boxer and electing Carly Fiorina on November 2.”

California U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer

As I said last night, there will be a plethora of polls in the next 12 days prior to the November 2nd election and the results may well be all over the place. Look at this piece from Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza.

For months, Senate Republicans have insisted that Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) can be beaten. Now, they have a poll that shows the race as a dead heat.

Boxer and former Hewlett Packard executive Carly Fiorina (R) are knotted at 44 percent in a Tarrance Group poll conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee by Dave Sackett between Oct. 17 and 19.

Among independents and those voters who decline to state a party preference — a major target for both candidates — Fiorina leads 47 percent to 34 percent. “[Fiorina] needs to improve upon this and get her ballot strength among ticket-splitters up into the mid 50’s,” writes Sackett in the polling memo, a copy of which was obtained by the Fix.

The NRSC poll is slightly more optimistic for Fiorina than a Public Policy Institute of California survey released Wednesday that shows Boxer leading 43 percent to 38 percent. The PPIC survey also shows the race for independents tighter; Fiorina takes 37 percent, Boxer takes 36 percent and 18 percent are undecided.

The latest NRSC/Tarrance poll is here and I will embed it below.

CA Polling Memo

View more documents from nrsc.

In the various polling models, the pollsters are trying to predict likely voters in a very large state as California. This is not an easy task, especially since there is liable to be a disproportionate turnout from various areas of the state where there is high unemployment. Boxer will need to turnout traditional Democrat communities in Southern California in order to offset other areas of the state, like the Cental Valley which will vote overwhelmingly GOP.

How this turnout plays out and how well Carly Fiorna’s campaign turns out her base will determine the race – ON ELECTION DAY.

For your viewing pleasure are the latest Real Clear Politics Poll Averages.

A television ad that will appeal to the middle, independent voters, Carly paints Far Left Democrat Senator Barbara Boxer as a hyper-patisan POL – which she is.

With Boxer running vicious personal attack ads against Fiorina and with President Obama rushing out to camapign for her on Friday, painting Boxer as an agenda driven POL works.

From the press release:

In an ongoing effort to highlight Barbara Boxer’s utter failure to deliver results for the people of California, who are today facing a 12.4 percent unemployment rate with more than a half million jobs lost since the passage of the economic stimulus plan, U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina launched a new 30-second television ad titled “Bickering” highlighting Boxer’s 28-year record of bitter partisanship and ineffective leadership in Washington. This is the fourth ad in Fiorina’s statewide television advertising campaign.

“While Californians face 12.4 percent unemployment, falling incomes and devastating job losses, it’s clear Barbara Boxer is far more concerned with saving her own job and ‘delivering partisan shots’ than she is with reaching across the aisle to get something done for the people she was elected to serve,” said Carly for California Campaign Manager Marty Wilson. “The people of California deserve a representative in the U.S. Senate who will set aside partisan bickering and political games, but it’s clear Barbara Boxer is not that representative. Carly Fiorina, on the other hand, is not afraid to make the tough decisions necessary to address our state’s most pressing challenges. Changing Washington starts with changing the people we send there, and we believe the people of California will do that on November 2 when they vote to retire Barbara Boxer after her nearly three decades of failure to fight for their interests.”