Flap's Blog

Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

Senator Claire McCaskill – 46% Vs. 47%

Approval Vs. Disapproval Vs. Not sure:

Todd Akin – 18% Vs. 21% Vs. 61%
John Brunner – 8% Vs. 19% Vs. 73%
Blaine Luetkemeye – 14% Vs. 22% Vs. 64%
Ed Martin – 11% Vs. 20% Vs. 70%
Sarah Steelman – 26% Vs. 22% Vs. 52%

General election Head to Head:

McCaskill – 46% Vs. Akin – 45%
McCaskill – 47% Vs. Brunner – 41%
McCaskill – 45% Vs. Luetkemeye – 42%
McCaskill – 46% Vs. Martin – 39%
McCaskill – 45% Vs. Steelman – 42%

Missouri Senator Clair McCaskill is vulnerable in 2012 and the GOP is counting on picking up her seat. The latest PPP Poll does nothing to give her campaign any optimism.

These margins don’t exactly look comfortable for McCaskill and a look inside the numbers suggests they’re likely to get worse. There are a good deal more undecided Republicans than Democrats in all of these match ups- 5% more undecided GOP voters against Steelman, 6% more against Akin, 10% more against Luetkemeyer, 11% more against Brunner, and 12% more against Martin. If those folks end up coming ‘home’ you’re looking at each of the Republican picking up another 2-4 points on the margin.

Why are there so many more Republican undecideds? The crop of GOP candidates continues to be mostly unknown to voters in the state. None of them reaches 50% name recognition. Steelman is the best known with 48% of voters having an opinion about her, 26% positive and 22% negative. She’s followed by 39% who know Akin (18/21), 36% who know Luetkemeyer (14/22), 31% who know Martin (11/20), and 27% who know Brunner (8/19).

The state of this race remains the same- McCaskill is one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection next year. But the bad news cycles she endured over the last few months seemed like they had the potential to shift this race to one where she was favored to lose. In that sense the continued toss up status of the contest is good news for her.

Good news for McCaskill?

I suppopse she could be behind but with her airplane woes and the lack of GOP hit ads means that worst is yet to come.

This race will NOT be a toss-up but a GOP gain.

Sen. Claire McCaskill (top), D-Mo., faces challenges from Republicans (bottom, from left) Ann Wagner, Ed Martin and Sarah Steelman

According to the lastest PPP Poll.

Sarah Steelman is the early top choice of Missouri Republicans to be their candidate for the Senate next year, although with most of the candidates including herself largely unknown at this point there is plenty of time for that to change.

The Poll:

Sarah Steelman – 31%
Todd Akin – 24%
Ed Martin – 9%
Ann Wagner – 2%

Without GOP Rep. Todd Akin in the race:

Sarah Steelman – 37%
Todd Martin – 18%
Ann Wagner – 11%

But, most Missouri voters don’t really know about these candidates, so take these numbers with a grain of salt.

We’re not seeing any big ideological fissures yet in these numbers. Steelman leads Akin by 14 points with moderates but she also has a 13 point advantage with those voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ Her lead is narrower with ‘somewhat conservative’ voters who give her only a one point edge on Akin. It’s a similar story when Akin’s out- then Steelman’s up 26 points on Martin with the ‘very conservative’ wing and 24 points with the moderates, but only 9 points with folks who call themselves ‘somewhat conservative.’ For whatever reason she’s doing better with moderates and the far right than the center right.

It’s too early to make a whole lot of these numbers though given that 56% of voters don’t know enough about Steelman to have formed an opinion and that just rises to 61% for Akin, 75% for Martin, and 81% for Wagner.

The full poll is here (PDF).

Mo-Sen Poll Watch: Claire McCaskill 46% Vs. Todd Akin 45%

MO-Sen GOP Poll Watch: Steelman 31% Akin 24% Martin 9% Wagner 2%