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2012 Poll Watch: Massachusetts Not Likely to be Competitive
2012 Poll Watch: Massachusetts Not Likely to be Competitive
"Mitt Romney is no longer a popular figure in Massachusetts and Barack Obama wouldn’t have too much trouble winning the state for reelection even if he had to face a home town nominee.
51% of Massachusetts voters have an unfavorable opinion of Romney to only 40% who view him favorably. Republicans like him for the most part (a 75/14 favorability) and independents narrowly do so as well (50/44). But for a Republican to be popular in a deep blue state requires a lot of appeal to Democrats and that Romney has little of, with only 16% seeing him positively to 76% with an unfavorable opinion. Romney is no Scott Brown as far as appeal across party lines goes.
" He’d certainly be better off than the rest of the possible Republican contenders though. Massachusetts voters have an extremely dim view of the other leading candidates. Mike Huckabee’s favorability is a -19 spread (29/48), Newt Gingrich’s is -31 (27/58), and Sarah Palin’s is -41 (27/68). Given those numbers it’s no surprise Obama trounces the rest of the field in hypothetical contests. He leads Gingrich and Huckabee by identical 57-33 margins. That 24 spread is similar to what he won in the state in 2012. Against Palin that advantage extends to 29 points at 61-32, an even more lopsided showing than Obama received against John McCain.
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Presidential Election 2012: The First 2012 Map of Battleground States
Election 2010 Map as of today from electoral-vote.org
The first pundit map is out for the 2102 Presidential race.As we begin turning our attention to the 2012 presidential contest, we debut our initial presidential battleground map. Note: This is based on where we believe things will be a year from now, with the GOP candidates headed into home stretch in IA. It essentially combines what we know from ’04, ’06, ’08 and ’10, and factors it ALL in. Here’s another way to look at this: The lean Dem states are winnable by a Republican if things break, say, 53%-47% nationally for the nominee. And the lean GOP states are winnable by a Democrat if things break, well, 53%-47% nationally for the president. And you can guarantee BOTH parties will play in every lean and toss-up state so the BIG battleground for 2012 begins with 17 states. We fully expect a David Plouffe to attempt to argue GA and AZ should be in lean. And we expect a GOP strategist to argue they can put one EV in ME and, say, OR in play. But here you go…
Solid Dem: DE, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT
Likely Dem: CA, CT, IL, ME, WA, OR
Lean Dem: IA, MI, MN, NJ, PA
Toss-up: CO, FL, NV, NH, NM, OH, VA, WI
Lean GOP: MO, MT, NE (one EV), NC,
Likely GOP: AL, AR, AZ, GA, IN, LA, MS, NE (four EVs), ND, SC, SD, TX
DC Solid GOP: AK, ID, KS, KY, OK, TN, UT, WV, WYOf course, this depends entirely on the economy and it will be interesting to revisit this in about a year. But, as of today, I would say the key battleground states will be:
- Ohio – 20 (electoral votes)
- Virginia – 13
- Colorado – 9
- Florida -27
- Nevada – 5
- Wisconsin -10
- New Hampshire – 4
- Indiana – 11
- North Carolina – 15
Remembering Obama/Biden won 365 electoral votes Vs. McCain/Palin 173. The battleground states above would have 114 electoral votes in play. A sufficient number for a GOP contender to flip and win the Presidency.
The race for 2012 has already started.
Stay tuned……
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President 2012 Poll Watch: GOP Enthusiasm Could Spell Trouble for Obama
Nate Silver makes some interesting observations about GOTV, ground operations for Obama Vs. the GOP in 2012.On the surface, this looks like horrible news for Democrats: the enthusiasm gap was the largest in precisely those states that a Democrat (or a Republican for that matter) needs to win the Presidency.
But there is something else to keep in mind. Mr. Obama’s campaign had a terris ific turnout operation, and — like any good turnout operation — it was concentrated in swing states. Mr. McCain’s campaign, by contrast, de-emphasized its “ground game” (a mistake that Karl Rove and George W. Bush would never have made), hoping to nationalize the election and win on the basis of television commercials.
What we’re probably seeing, then, is the “hangover” from the Mr. Obama’s turnout efforts in 2008. In states like Ohio and New Hampshire and Indiana, where Democrats registered tons of new voters and made sure that all of them got to the polls, a lot of them didn’t participate this time around. In other states, the electorate wasn’t much different and the people who were voting this year strongly resembled those who voted in 2010 — although Republicans still did better because the preferences of independent voters shifted toward them.
This sort of phenomenon is actually quite typical. In general, the bigger a President’s coattails, the more his party tends to suffer at the next midterm.
The key question for 2012 is whether those new voters will re-enter the electorate when Mr. Obama is on the ballot again. If so, Democrats should be in reasonably good shape — and they’ll also win back quite a few of the House seats that they lost in these states.
If not, however — or if Republicans are able to build a get-out-the-vote effort that is the equal of Mr. Obama’s — we could be up very late into the evening counting votes on Nov. 6, 2012.
This is a role where The Tea Party Movement can help supply the volunteers in key battleground states.
Time to organize. The data is there.
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Election 2012: GOP U.S. Senate Prospects Look Bright
Looking at the map above, Republicans although unsuccessful in taking the majority of Senate seats on tuesday show increasingly bright prospects for the 2012 election cycle.Welcome to the 2012 election cycle. The three most vulnerable Democratic senators in 2012 are probably Bill Nelson of Florida, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and Jon Tester of Montana. Republicans also may target Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Kent Conrad of North Dakota, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Bob Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania, Jim Webb of Virginia, Maria Cantwell of Washington, and Herb Kohl of Wisconsin. Retirement watch: Dianne Feinstein of California (age in 2012: 79), Daniel Akaka of Hawaii (88), Nelson of Nebraska (71), and Kohl (77).
Nebraska, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, North Dakota, Montana, Michigan: Those are all anti-Obama/Republican states.
Also, Republican Dick Lugar of Indiana will be 80 years old and may retire – calling GOP Rep. Mike Pence?
The above mentioned Democratic Senators will be under intense scrutiny by The Tea Party and will be targeted for replacement. Early recruitment of the best conservative candidates is essential for success and should begin today.
But, conservative propsects to remold the Senate majority and replace Democrat Senator Harry Reid as leader look promising.
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Shocking: Obama Stimulus Bill Party Primarily Goes to States that Obama Won in 2008
Since Congress passed President Barack Obama’s $787 billion economic stimulus bill in February, administration officials have traveled to at least 66 events across the country to tout the massive spending program or hand out stimulus cash to grateful local officials.
But a POLITICO examination of the travel reveals a distinctly political trend line: Top officials have hosted events predominantly in states that Obama won in 2008.
Ben Smith notices that most of the economic stimulus teleprompter media events have been in swing states, like Indiana and New Mexico.
Obama better hope California’s economy improves or his Electoral College prospects in 2012 dim.