• George Pataki,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Rudy Giuliani,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012: President George Pataki?

    New York Governor George Pataki addresses the final night of the 2004 Republican National Convention at Madison Square Garden in New York, September 2, 2004

    GOP Operative/pundit Mike Murphy discusses the possible path to the Presidency for former New York Governor George Pataki.

    While most of the media have gone ridiculously aflutter over Sarah Palin’s latest diesel-powered tourist outing slash fan dance, a far more interesting caper is quietly unfolding in New Hampshire. Former New York governor George Pataki is airing a new ad on a Granite State TV station, WMUR. The ad comes from a Pataki-sponsored group called No American Debt and is perfectly attuned to New Hampshire’s flinty primary electorate. So while others are playing cat and mouse with reporters, inspecting farms in Iowa with more hogs than people and pleading with legions of self-appointed Tea Party generalissimos, Pataki is running a very effective spot in New Hampshire.

    I saw it and had to smile. My bet? Pataki is going to try to steal the New Hampshire primary: First, ignore all the silly inside games and get on television pronto with a good message. Move up quietly in the polls — with Mitt Romney sitting at a third of the vote, Palin unelectable and Tim Pawlenty drifting near the margin of error, Pataki could televise his way into second or third place in Granite State polls by midsummer. Then let the national media discover the Pataki surge and get bonkers about it. With that national attention, reboot the once massive Pataki money machine in New York State and start attracting more national money and support. Light the right match, and if it combusts correctly, stand back and watch the fire grow.

    If Pataki generates real heat in New Hampshire, it will create an enormous headache for Romney. The last thing Romney needs is another can-do Northeastern governor in the race. It’s even worse for the ideologically murky Jon Huntsman, who is banking on a very similar formula of independents and mainline Republicans to sore his own New Hampshire upset. In a final Shakespearean twist, Pataki’s old home-state rival Rudy Giuliani will be watching all this carefully and thinking dark thoughts about the idea of President Pataki. He too is hinting at a possible run.

    I think Rudy Giuliani is waiting for Sarah Palin and will run if she gets in. Maybe Pataki has done the same political calculus.

    But, there is room for only one of them and Pataki is already running ads and has no debt like Rudy.

  • George Pataki,  President 2012,  Rudy Giuliani

    President 2012: Former New York Governor George Pataki to Run for President?

    Former New York Gov. George Pataki, center right, is greeted as he leaves St. Patrick’s Cathedral after the funeral of former Gov. Hugh Carey Thursday, Aug. 11, 2011 in New York. The Brooklyn-born Carey served two terms as New York governor from 1975 to 1982 after seven terms as a congressman representing his home borough

    I guess the more the merrier.

    A spokesman has confirmed that former Governor George Pataki is strongly considering entering the crowded race for the Republican presidential nomination.

    Sources say Pataki, who left office in 2007, could make an announcement as early as next week.

    If he were to run, Pataki would face several major obstacles including launching an operation with little campaign cash and facing several opponents who have been meeting voters in Iowa and New Hampshire for months.

    Pataki has been a vocal critic of President Barack Obama’s health care plan.

    There is a path to the GOP Presidential nomination for Rudy Giuliani but I do not know if Pataki will do particularly well. But, if and when Sarah Palin enters the race, in a multi-candidate field for GOP delegates, Pataki who is very experienced, may be a player.

    But, can he raise sufficient campaign cash to run in New Hampshire and Florida?

  • Barbara Boxer,  Carly Fiorina,  Chuck DeVore,  David Paterson,  Democrats,  George Pataki,  GOP,  Kirsten Gillibrand,  Rudy Giuliani

    Are the United States Senate Democrats With 60 Members At Their High-Water Mark?

    The composition of the United States Senate, September 2009

    Apparently so, according to Charlie Cook.

    One of Vice President Joe Biden‘s long-standing and endearing qualities is his gift of hyperbole. The Washington Post recently quoted Biden as saying at a Democratic fundraiser that, of the 54 House seats Democrats have flipped in the last two elections cycles, “If [Republicans] take them back, this is the end of the road for what [President Obama] and I are trying to do.”

    While he overstates the case, Biden’s worry applies at least as much in the Senate. The Democrats’ majority status next year is not in doubt, but their 60-seat majority is in grave danger and the odds of their maintaining control after 2012 and 2014 are increasingly remote.

    The Senate seats up in next year’s midterm elections are evenly split, with 19 on each side. But in 2012, Democrats have 23 seats at risk (counting Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.) compared to only nine for the GOP. In 2014, it’s 20 Democrats up, to only 13 for Republicans.

    Good news for the GOP.


    In California, it’s unclear how tough the re-election challenge will be for Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. The biggest question there is whether Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, is ready for prime time politics.

    Note: there is NO mention of Carly Fiorina’s GOP challenger Assemblyman Chuck DeVore.

    New York:

    New York is also very murky. Former Republican Gov. George Pataki might run. Remember that he knocked off Democratic Gov. Mario Cuomo in 1994, the last really bad year for Democrats. There are other first-tier Republicans — former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Rep. Rick Lazio — who are looking at the gubernatorial race but might be enticed to take on Gillibrand.

    Probably Rudy for Governor against Paterson and Pataki against Gillibrand. Then, a likely dual pick-up for the GOP.

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  • David Paterson,  George Pataki,  Kirsten Gillibrand,  Polling,  Rudy Giuliani

    Poll Watch: Rudy Giuliani for New York United States Senate?

    Rudy Giuliani campaigning for President in Santa Barbara, California September 2007
    Photo By Flap

    Well, if New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is the Democrat nominee for Governor, Rudy would have an easier time defeating appointed Democrat Senator Kristen Gillibrand.

    Let’s look at the poll numbers:

    If David Paterson runs for Governor in 2010, would you vote to elect him or would you prefer someone else?
    14% Elect, 71% Prefer someone else

    2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
    66% Cuomo, 20% Paterson (chart)

    2010 Governor: General Election
    Paterson 39%, Lazio 35% (chart)
    Giuliani 52%, Paterson 35% (chart)
    Cuomo 52%, Giuliani 39% (chart)
    Cuomo 64%, Lazio 18% (chart)

    And for the U.S. Senate:

    2010 Senate: General Election (trends)
    46% Giuliani, 38% Gillibrand

    I don’t know if Rudy would be interested in a non-executive position and it is rumored that former GOP New York Governor George Pataki is considering running for the Senate.

    If the Democrats continue to fade, the GOP could get a two’fer here. But, the stars must align perfectly.

    Stay tuned……

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  • Andrew Cuomo,  David Paterson,  George Pataki,  Rudy Giuliani

    Andrew Cuomo Leads Latest Poll for New York Governor 2010 Race

    The latest Rasmussen poll does not look good for Republicans Rudy Giuliani or George Pataki if New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo runs from the Democrat side.

    But, if incumbent New York Governor David Paterson runs it is a diffferent story.


    But, at this stage of the race who is to say who will run for what, especially with a United States Senate seat thrown into the mix.

    It is far from clear that either Giuliani or Pataki will seek the office. Sen. John Cornyn, head of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, reportedly approached Pataki about a possible run for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Kirsten Gillibrand.

    Stay tuned…..

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  • Caroline Kennedy,  David Paterson,  George Pataki,  Hillary Clinton,  Rudy Giuliani

    Caroline Kennedy Sinks in the Polls But Does it Matter?

    Caroline Kennedy and Al Sharpton

    The Rev. Al Sharpton, center, stands beside Caroline Kennedy as they field questions during a news conference outside the famed soul food restaurant Sylvia’s in Harlem, New York, Thursday Dec. 18, 2008. The late President John F. Kennedy’s daughter acknowledged Wednesday that she is seeking to be appointed to the Senate seat held by Hillary Rodham Clinton, who has been nominated by President-elect Barack Obama to be secretary of state

    Caroline’s popularity with New York voters has been in a nosedive in the polls but it may all be moot for a number of reasons.

    Caroline Kennedy‘s popularity has suffered a “clear hit” as a result of her public campaign for Hillary Rodham Clinton‘s Senate seat, while Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s positive ratings have shot up, according to a new poll.

    According to Public Policy Polling, of Raleigh, N.C., 44 percent of New York State voters now say they have a less favorable opinion of Kennedy than they did before she started vying for the position. Thirty-three percent say it’s made no difference, and 23 percent report now having a more favorable opinion of her.

    Cuomo now leads Kennedy 58-27 in a survey of the preferences of state voters. Among Democrats, Cuomo is ahead of Kennedy 54-34 percent; a month ago, the survey found Kennedy ahead of Cuomo by 44-23 percent among Democrats.

    • Will Caroline Kennedy, despite her wealth for a self-funded campaign, be of sufficent stature to defeat former New York Governor George Pataki or Rudy Giuliani, both Republicans?
    • Will New York Governor David Paterson defuse a possible Democrat Primary election for himself by appointing New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to the Senate?
    • And, it ALL may be MOOT should Hillary Clinton run into confrirmation problems on the Hill.

    Stay tuned……

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