California GOP Rep. Dan Lungren (CA-3)
While the California Citizens Redistricting Commission works to draw lines for 2012 California Congressional Districts, these Congressman’s districts have changed demographically over the past decade.
The incumbent protection plan California passed in 2002 gave this suburban Sacramento district parts of GOP-leaning outlying counties. Now, census results show Sacramento County is large enough to fully contain two districts, which could force Lungren, a nine-term veteran Republican, into a more compact and more Democratic district. In 2010, while many of his GOP colleagues were cruising to reelection, Lungren barely stumbled across the finish line and could be in more serious trouble against the same opponent in 2012.
And, Lungren’s opponent Dr. Ami Bera has already announced a rematch and has started raising money ($230,000 in the first quarter of 2011).
California GOP Rep. Ken Calvert (CA-44) with Speaker John Beohner
A big surge in Latino voter participation in California’s Riverside County explained why Calvert was almost caught napping in 2008: That year, Calvert barely hung on with 51 percent in a race on no one’s radar screen. This district is now 45 percent Hispanic, and the 10-term Republican could easily find his Corona home in a 55 percent Hispanic district if redistricting commissioners decide one should be drawn. Of course, Calvert could move to a more Republican neighboring district, but he would face a competitive primary.