House 2012: California Rep. Dan Lungren and Ken Calvert Head Top Ten Republicans Most Vulnerable to Redistricting

Posted 1 CommentPosted in California Citizens Redistricting Commission, Dan Lungren, House 2012, Ken Calvert

California GOP Rep. Dan Lungren (CA-3)

Rep. Dan Lungren and Rep. Ken Calvert make the top two at the National Journal’s vulnerability list.

Why?

While the California Citizens Redistricting Commission works to draw lines for 2012 California Congressional Districts, these Congressman’s districts have changed demographically over the past decade.

Dan Lungren:

The incumbent protection plan California passed in 2002 gave this suburban Sacramento district parts of GOP-leaning outlying counties. Now, census results show Sacramento County is large enough to fully contain two districts, which could force Lungren, a nine-term veteran Republican, into a more compact and more Democratic district. In 2010, while many of his GOP colleagues were cruising to reelection, Lungren barely stumbled across the finish line and could be in more serious trouble against the same opponent in 2012.

And, Lungren’s opponent Dr. Ami Bera has already announced a rematch and has started raising money ($230,000 in the first quarter of 2011).

California GOP Rep. Ken Calvert (CA-44) with Speaker John Beohner

Ken Calvert:

A big surge in Latino voter participation in California’s Riverside County explained why Calvert was almost caught napping in 2008: That year, Calvert barely hung on with 51 percent in a race on no one’s radar screen. This district is now 45 percent Hispanic, and the 10-term Republican could easily find his Corona home in a 55 percent Hispanic district if redistricting commissioners decide one should be drawn. Of course, Calvert could move to a more Republican neighboring district, but he would face a competitive primary.

Stay tuned……

California GOP Rep. David Dreier Likely to be 2012 Redistricting Victim

Posted Posted in David Dreier, House 2012

GOP leaders listen to U.S. Speaker of the House John Boehner talk about Senate Democrats and their failure to pass a long-term bill to cut spending and keep the U.S. government running while on Capitol Hill in Washington, March 29, 2011. From L-R are: House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Rep. Kristi Noem (SD) and Rep. David Dreier (CA)

A very likely casualty since his Congressional District demographics have changed a lot in the last decade.

Dreier got lucky 10 years ago, when a deal was cut to keep him safe for the next decade. After a decade’s worth of demographic changes, though, it will be tough to keep his district even slightly friendly to a Republican — even if the citizen line-drawers were looking out for Dreier (which they probably won’t be). His current district is now more than 50 percent black and Hispanic, it voted for Obama in 2008, and he lives just a few miles from fellow GOP Rep. Gary Miller (R). Smart California observers suggest Dreier may face a primary with either Miller or Rep. Jerry Lewis (R), either of which would probably be in unfriendly territory for Dreier.

And, in a GOP primary election, Dreier has never been a favorite of drive time KFI radio shock jocks John and Ken.

I don’t see Rep. Dreier surviving without a change in campaign strategy and relocation to another adjacent CD.