President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 41% Vs. Obama 41%, Christie 43% Vs Obama 40%, Huckabee 39% Vs. Obama 42%

Posted 2 CommentsPosted in Barack Obama, Chris Christie, John Thune, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty

Not a very good poll for the President.

On the Republican primary side it breaks out like this:

  • 27% Christie
  • 17% Romney
  • 16% Palin
  • 14% Huckabee
  • 5% Daniels
  • 2% Pawlenty
  • 2% Thune

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie who has said he would not be a candidate is doing the best but all of the Republican contenders are within the ballpark.

The poll, conducted from Dec. 30, 2010 to Jan. 3, 2011, shows Christie leads among conservative Republicans with 28%, followed by Palin (18%), Huckabee (15%) and Romney (14%). Christie also leads among Born-Again Christians with 27%. He also does well with moderate Republicans (23%). Romney leads that group with 28%. 

Looking at age groups, Christie does best with those 18-29 (36%) and 30-49 (33%).

Both Christie and Romney lead Obama among independent voters. For Christie, that margin is 42%-29%; and for Romney, 39%-31%. Of the listed Republicans, Palin does the worst against Obama among independents, losing 38%-32%.

Obama loses to each of the Republicans among voters over age 65; and trails by the biggest margins to Romney (51%-38%) and Christie (49%-39%).

Indiana Rep. Mike Pence to Run for President in 2012?

Posted Posted in Mike Pence, Mitch Daniels

Indiana Congressman Mike Pence, rumored as a possible GOP presidential contender in 2012, headlined a multi-county event in eastern Iowa Friday night before heading to western Iowa to campaign on behalf of U.S. Rep. Steve King. Note this is from July 2009.

No, I don’t think so.

MIke Pence will run for Indiana Governor
, replacing GOP Governor Mitch Daniels, who may indeed run for President.
U.S. Rep. Mike Pence is scheduling Republican Lincoln Days Dinner all over Indiana, Howey Politics Indiana has learned.

It is the best clue yet that he is preparing to launch a 2012 Indiana gubernatorial campaign, as opposed to seeking the presidency. “He is scheduling larger counties,” a Republican source told HPI on Monday.

“If he is running for President, it would be an interesting and novel strategy. We could call it the Win Indiana Strategy!”

If Pence were to launch a presidential campaign, he would be more likely to spend this winter and spring in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina – the key early primary and caucus states.

Pence spokesman Matt Lloyd told HPI over the weekend that the congressman has not scheduled any media events to announce future plans. The GOP field cleared just before Christmas when Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman announced she would not run due to “minor health problems.”

Pence has also been the center of presidential speculation after winning a conservative straw poll last August. Pence opting to run for governor would then potentially pave the way for Gov. Mitch Daniels to enter the presidential race.

With Obama rising slightly in the polls, why not obtain executive experience by serving as Indiana Governor and bide your political time.  Pence will run for Indiana Governor.

And, Eric Erickson at Red State will have to choose again.

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels Warns of Debt and Clarifies Social Issues “Truce” Comment

Posted Posted in Mitch Daniels

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels (center)

In an interview, Republican Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels talks about America’s debt, the federal government and 2012 Presidential politics. He, also clarifies the “Truce” comment he made regarding social issues and a possible Presidential campaign.
Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is weighing a run for president and will make a final decision at the end of April or before. In a year-end interview with NewsChannel 15, he talked presidential politics.

Mellinger: “Do you regret now saying that we should call a truce on social issues in the interest of paying attention to the debt and fiscal matters?”

Daniels: “I never regret saying what I think. I’ve tried to make a practice of being straight and level with people and I accept if people disagree. I think some people misunderstood what I was really saying.”

Mellinger: “What did you mean by a truce?”

Daniels: “I simply meant that I think the nation faces a genuine emergency in the debt we’ve piled up. It could wreck America. It could end the American dream literally if we don’t handle it and handle it soon.”

“It’s just like if there was an army on our border. We would drop other things or we would set them aside for awhile and we would rush to the barricades and defend our country. And all I was saying was [that] if you’re facing a mortal survival threat like that, we’re going to need to get together more than just a bare majority of Americans. When you’re trying to make big change in a state or a nation, the way to do that is to have an unnaturally large consensus. And so we’re going to need people who disagree sincerely about other questions to agree about these changes.”

Mellinger: “This was not you saying ‘I’m not going to work to appoint Supreme Court justices in the Alito or Roberts or Thomas mold.’ It wasn’t anything to alarm social conservatives.”

Daniels: “First of all, it wasn’t directed to them. It was directed as much to people who, for instance, are very aggressively trying to change the definition of marriage… Stand down for awhile. Let’s save America.”

“I’ve had the first and only Indiana Supreme Court opportunity I think I’ll ever get. Anybody looking at the choice [should see] a strict constructionist, very much a person who wants to interpret law, not make law. Of course that’s my view and a very deeply held one.”

Daniels also has some kind words to say about Sarah Palin.

Mellinger: “Do you think Sarah Palin can win the presidency in a general election?”

Daniels: “I don’t know. No one knows right now. “

Mellinger: “Does she represent the best and brightest the Republican Party has to offer in 2012?”

Daniels: “[She] hasn’t been fully tested, you know. Give her a chance. Give her a chance. She’s been heard from lately on some issues for the first time and I thought she wrote about them and spoke about them pretty well.”

If Sarah Palin takes a pass on a 2012 Presidential run, look for a draft Mitch Daniels campaign popping up among establishment conservatves. A proven POL, Daniels, would be a fresh face without the baggage of Romney, Huckabee and Gingrich.

President 2012 Poll Watch: Huckabee Leads Romney, Palin and Gingrich in GOP Likely Support

Posted Posted in Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin

Of course, the lede from CNN is: TRENDING: CNN 2012 Poll: Obama and Palin going in different directions?
As the start of the next presidential campaign nears, a new national poll suggests that President Barack Obama’s tax-cut compromise with congressional Republicans did not hurt his standing among Democrats, while former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin may be dropping in the eyes of Republicans.

But, this is misleading since President Obama has NO real primary opposition and the polling is not Obama Vs any Likely GOP nominee. But, what is important in this poll is how well Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich are doing with Sarah Palin in the field.

The poll is here.

In the battle for the GOP presidential nomination, the survey suggests Palin may have some work to do if she throws her hat in the ring. Only 49 percent of Republicans say that they are likely to support Sen. John McCain’s running mate in 2008 for the Republican nomination in 2012.

“That’s a huge 18-point drop since December of 2008, when two-thirds of GOPers said they were likely to support Palin. It also puts her well behind potential rivals Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, and a bit behind Newt Gingrich as well,” adds Holland.

Two-thirds of Republicans questioned say they would likely support Huckabee as their nominee in 2012. The former Arkansas governor and 2008 GOP presidential candidate is considering another bid for the White House. So is another candidate from the last election, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Fifty-nine percent of Republicans say they would likely support Romney. That number drops to 54 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, who is also contemplating a run for the White House.

This poll is most alarming for Mitt Romney since as the anti-Palin candidate he does not stand out.

If indeed, Sarah Palin does not run in 2012, I am thinking that the other three, Huckabee, Romney, or Gingrich may be slugging it out throughout the primary season – something that the GOP will not want as a prelude to an Obama face off. This may very well open the race for another candidate, backed by Sarah Palin, to run against the establishment field.

Indiana Rep. Mike Pence or Governor Mitch Daniels?

Poll Watch: Mit Romney Crashing and Burning in Florida and North Carolina

Posted Posted in Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney

I think so.
When PPP first polled Florida Republicans in March about who they wanted as their 2012 nominee 52% of them picked Mitt Romney when given the choices of him, Mike Huckabee (who got 21%), and Sarah Palin (who received 18%).

When PPP next asked Florida Republicans about 2012 in July Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul’s names were added into the mix and although Romney maintained the lead it wasn’t nearly as strong. He was at 31%, followed by Palin and Gingrich at 23%, Huckabee at 15%, and Paul at 6%.

When PPP asked about it in late October even more names were in the pool and Romney’s support declined even further. He was down to 28% with Palin at 22%, Huckabee and Gingrich at 15%, and a variety of other Republicans combining for 8%.

Now Romney’s lead in Florida is completely gone. The poll we did last week found him at only 21%, behind Huckabee’s 23%, with Gingrich at 18%, Palin at 13%, and others combining for a total of 15%.

Why? Mitt Romney is no longer the conservative alternative to Sarah Palin. With Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich in the race, Mitt comes off as the least conservative of the three.

In North Carolina, Romney does not come off very well either.

In North Carolina we see a good old log jam with Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin tied at 21%, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney tied at 18%, and the rest of the Republicans combining for 12%. This is another state where Romney’s conservative problem rears its head. He has a strong advantage with moderates as 30% of them say he’s their top choice with none of the other Republicans rising above 15%. But he posts yet another fourth place finish with conservatives at only 14%, with Palin at 24%, Gingrich at 22%, and Huckabee at only 19%.

Mitt Romney certainly will run for President in 2012. But, besides his popularity in New Hampshire he will fade when the South Carolina and Florida primary elections are held.

It could very well be Mike Huckabee’s and/or Newt Gingrich’s year unless Mitch Daniels or John Thune can catch fire.

Sarah Palin Stresses Her Electability as a Reason for Presidential Run

Posted Posted in Mike Huckabee, Mike Pence, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin

Palin stresses her electability as a reason to run for president in 2012

Over the past month, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) has quietly altered her case for the presidency in a savvy shift of rhetoric.

The lofty goal? Turning the main reason a Republican might oppose her into the primary reason for voting for her. If she can pull it off, the nomination might be hers, but she is up against a tough set of barriers.

Every candidate must have a compelling reason for running, and until one month ago, Palin’s was simple.

In October, she told “Entertainment Tonight” that she would only run if the field were missing a candidate who had “common sense” and “pro-Constitution passion.”

It there were such a candidate, Palin would opt out of a race and be “their biggest supporter and biggest help-mate.”

That answer boxed Palin in considerably, because the field will likely include at least a few candidates who fit those criteria. For example, Palin gave a ringing endorsement to Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), a possible 2012 candidate, in his reelection bid earlier this year.

“He does what is right regardless of whether it is popular. He walks the walk of a true conservative. And he sticks to his guns — and you know how I feel about guns!” she said of him at the time.

And there are other names closely associated with the Tea Party movement, of which Palin is a prominent member, who might run: Rep. Mike Pence (R) of Indiana, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (R) and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.).

If the economy does not improve substantially and President Obama continues to sink in the polls, Sarah Palin will run for President. But, she will enter the race late. In the meantime, she will do events, raise money and keep in the public eye – on Fox News.

The Big 4 candidates in the race, other than Sarah Palin, will be Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. I don’t think Newt Gingrich will be a factor. In a multi-way GOP primary Sarah Palin will definitely be a top tier candidate. But, the attack ads of Romney and the others might be brutal and sink her candidacy.