United States Senator and newly switched party Democrat Arlen Specter is in trouble in his 2010 re-election campaign.
Uncomfortable town hall meetings are just the tip of the iceberg for Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter. He now trails Republican Pat Toomey by double digits in his bid for reelection next year and is viewed unfavorably by a majority of the stateâ€™s voters.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters shows 48% would vote for Toomey if the election were held today. Just 36% would vote for Specter while four percent (4%) prefer a third option, and 12% are not sure.
These figures reflect a dramatic reversal since June. At that time, before the public health care debate began, Specter led Toomey by eleven.
Just 43% now have a favorable opinion of Specter while 54% offer an unfavorable assessment of the longtime GOP senator who became a Democrat rather than face Toomey in a party primary. Those numbers have reversed since June when 53% had a favorable opinion of him.
The current figures include 15% with a Very Favorable opinion of Specter and 36% with a Very Unfavorable view.
And, Republican Pat Toomey is beating left-wing Democrat Congressman Joe Sestak who is challenging Specter in the Democrat primary election.
After watching Specter in action at a health care town hall a couple of days ago, is there any doubt that the near octogenarian may be too old and feeble to succeed in his re-election efforts?
I doubt Specter wins the primary election and Toomey then mops the floor with Sestak.
Pat Toomey, left, is interviewed by news anchor Rob Vaughn at the WFMZ TV studio in Allentown, Pa. on Tuesday, April 28, 2009.. Toomey, was asked about the decision of Sen. Arlen Specter who switched from the Republican to the Democratic party. Toomey was set to challenge Specter for the Republican nominationThe latest Quinnipiac poll shows former Pennsylvania Congressman Pat Toomey trailing incumbent U.S. Senator Arlen Specter by 9 points, 37-46 per cent.
That’s better than Toomey’s showing in a May 4 poll, in which he trailed Specter by 20 points immediately following Specter’s party switch — a switch Specter decided to make in large part because polls showed Toomey beating him in the GOP primary race.
The numbers and candidates in the Pennsylvania race are still in a state of flux. Former Republican Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge was considered a possible challenger, but he opted not to run earlier this month despite a Quinnipiac survey showing him competitive against Specter in a general election.
Now Toomey is the leading GOP candidate. Another potential Democratic challenger recently dropped out of the race against Specter as well.
And though Rep. Joe Sestak, D-Pa., is expected to challenge Specter in the Democratic primary, the latest Quinnipiac poll shows the lesser known congressman trailing the five-term senator by nearly 30 points.
The GOP must be heartened with this poll since it appears that Rep. Joe Sestak will be running against Specter in a contested Democratic Party primary election. The negatives of this primary campaign undoubtedly will help Toomey who has a clear field now that Tom Ridge has declared he will not be running.
Now, will President Obama who has promised to support Specter for re-election place pressure on Rep. Sestak to withdraw and/or will he campaign directly for the incumbent Senator?
Tom Ridge, former secretary of Homeland Security and former Pennsylvania governor, speaks during the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn. The chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee says, Tuesday, May 5, 2009, that Tom Ridge might run against Sen. Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania next yearTom Ridge announced today that he will not be running against Arlen Specter next year for a Pennsylvania U.S. Senate seat.
After much speculation, former Gov. Tom Ridge today announced that he would not seek the GOP nomination for Senate next year.
In a statement, Ridge said he had been heartened by the support and encouragement he received from within the party and that it had been a difficult decision for him. He expressed a desire to still be involved in the partyâ€™s development.
â€œTo those who believe that the Republican Party is facing challenges, they are right,â€ Ridge said. â€œTo those who believe the Democratic Party is without its own difficulties, they are wrong. No one party has a monopoly on all of the answers. The more important view, in my mind, is that we remember, whether Republican or Democrat, we are foremost Americans. And as Americans, we have always overcome challenges when we put partisanship aside and solutions first.â€
Ridgeâ€™s decision leaves Republicans Pat Toomey and Peg Luksik as the main candidates in the race. But it also would seem to increase the likelihood that Congressman Jim Gerlach (R-7) and other Republican lawmakers will give the race a serious look.
Tom Ridge who is very popular in Pennsylvania would have been a very good candidate for the Republican Party.
So, does anyone think this is a disqualifier for the former Pennsylvnia Governor, Tom Ridge to take on U.S. Senator Arlen Specter?
Political Wire has learned that former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge (R) listed his residence as Chevy Chase, MD on a recent foreign agents registration filing with the U. S. Department of Justice. He reported he was representing the Government of Albania.
Specter’s age, switch of political parties, lack of Senate seniority and votes on spending will do more to harm his candidacy.
But, Pat Toomey, on the other hand, could beat Ridge over the head with it in a contentious GOP primary.
Tom Ridge has said he will decide on whether to run in two weeks.
A new Pennsylvania poll has GOP conservative Pat Toomey in better shape against U.S. Senator Arlen Specter but former Pennsylvania GOP Governor Tom Ridge is beating him ourtight.
Former Governor Tom Ridge and US Senator Arlen Specter are neck-and-neck across Pennsylvania in an election poll conducted for a state business group. Conservative former Congressman Pat Toomey, while potentially viable, trails Specter in most regions of the state.
PEG PAC, Pennsylvaniaâ€™s oldest pro-business political action committee and the affiliated PAC of the Pennsylvania Business Council (PBC), today announced the results of a statewide poll that tested whether a well known conservative Republican or a well known right-of-center Republican can best challenge incumbent US Senator Arlen Specter who recently joined the Democrat Party.
In an automated poll of 1,019 households of registered voters taken at the end of last week, announced PBC President and CEO David W. Patti, â€œPEG PAC found that if the election for US Senate were held today, Tom Ridge could defeat Arlen Specter by a margin of 39 percent to 38 percent. The poll also shows Specter would defeat Pat Toomey by a margin of 42 percent to 36 percent.â€ The number of undecided voters in the survey is over 20 percent cautioned Patti, and the margin of error is +/- 2.8 percent, so the association leader said the results are not conclusive.
This is the second poll in the last week that shows Tom Ridge as a very strong contender for this seat. Pro-life conservatives may not like Ridge since he is pro-choice but in this Republican Party climate , it is electability that will sway the donors and the National Repuiblican Senatorial Committee.
If Tom Ridge wants to be a U.S. Senator, then he will likely be one.
Pat Toomey, left, is interviewed by news anchor Rob Vaughn at the WFMZ TV studio in Allentown, Pa. on Tuesday, April 28, 2009.. Toomey, was asked about the decision of Sen. Arlen Specter who switched from the Republican to the Democratic party. Toomey was set to challenge Specter for the Republican nomination
At least initially it looks like former Pennsylvania Tom Ridge has a better chance to win Pennsyvania’s Senate seat.
Specter, who announced April 28 he was changing his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat, leads likely Republican contender Toomey by a 53 percent to 33 percent margin, the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute found.
But if former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge throws his hat into the ring, he might give Specter a run for his money, the poll found. A Specter-Ridge showdown only has the sitting senator leading 46 percent to 43 percent.
And independent voters, who back Specter over Toomey, 45 percent to 36 percent, switch to Ridge by a 47 percent to 37 percent margin if Ridge becomes a candidate.
â€œA former Republican Senator running as a Democrat against a popular former Republican governor seeking to make a political comeback would be a battle royal in Pennsylvania,â€ Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a statement.
But, will Tom Ridge run?
And, would then Toomey then withdraw to spare the GOP a contested primary election?
Vice President Joe Biden, center right, and Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., center left, shake hands as Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Pa., left and Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., applaud during a reception at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Friday, Feb. 27, 2009. The reception was held to honor Specter for his vote for the economic stimulus package –Or Was Biden wishing Specter a happy retirement?The latest polling from Pennsylvania shows GOP incumbent United states Senator Arlen Specter in deep trouble if he expects to win re-election in 2010.
Incumbent Senator Arlen Specter trails former Congressman Pat Toomey by 21 points in an early look at Pennsylvaniaâ€™s 2010 Republican Primary. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Republican voters statewide say theyâ€™d vote for Toomey while just 30% would support Specter.
Specter is viewed favorably by 42% of Pennsylvania Republicans and unfavorably by 55%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. Those are stunningly poor numbers for a long-term incumbent senator. Specter was first elected to the Senate in 1980.
Toomey, who served in the House from 1999 to 2005, earns positive reviews from 66% and negative comments from just 19%.
Though Specter has been in the Senate for 28 years, he has struggled to maintain grassroots support within his own party during recent years. Six years ago, the incumbent barely survived a primary challenge and defeated the more conservative Toomey by just two points, 51% to 49%. He then went on to win the general election in 2004 by a 53% to 42% margin.
This time around, things could be even more challenging for Specter. He was one of only three Republicans in the Congress to vote for President Obamaâ€™s $787 billion stimulus plan. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Pennsylvania Republicans said they were less likely to vote for Specter because of his support for the stimulus package.
In another sign that could be troubling for Specter, the current poll finds that 79% of Pennsylvania Republicans have a favorable opinion of the â€œTea Partyâ€ protests against big government spending and higher taxes held across the nation last week. Thirty percent (30%) know someone personally who took part. Overall, 82% of Pennsylvania Republicans say that the federal government has too much money and too much power. Just four percent (4%) say it has too little.
Specter leads Toomey by just eight points among moderate Republicans statewide, but Toomey holds a solid advantage among conservative Republicans.
But, the question is can Pat Toomey beat a Democrat?
It may make little difference anyway since Arlen Specter has shown weakness in general election polls.
Stay tuned as it continues to be early in the 2010 election cycle.
Pat Toomey is seen at the Fox 29 News WTXF TV studio in Philadelphia, Wednesday, April 15, 2009. Toomey, who as a little-known congressman nearly defeated Sen. Arlen Specter in the 2004 primary, announced Wednesday, that he will mount another challenge when Specter seeks the Republican nomination for a sixth term next yearIt is finally official.
Toomey, who stepped down Monday as president of the Washington-based Club for Growth, appealed to his conservative base in a statement released just before 8 a.m., while Toomey made a series of TV appearances in the Philadelphia area.
“Pennsylvanians deserve a voice in the U.S. Senate that will honor our values and fight for limited government, individual freedom and fiscal responsibility. I will be that voice,” Toomey said.
Early polls show Toomey ahead of the 79 year old and four term United States Senator Specter.
Republican Senators John Cornyn, R- Texas (Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee), Arlen Specter, R- Pennsylvania and Lyndsey Graham, R- South Carolina in 2006Even with the latest polls showing Pennsylvania United States Senator Arlen Specter in deep trouble for re-nomination in 2010, the National Republican Senatorial Committee endorsed him today.
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn released a letter today offering a full-throated endorsement of Sen. Arlen Specter in his coming primary against former congressman Pat Toomey, a decision driven by a concern that the challenger cannot win a general election in Pennsylvania.
“My job as head of the NRSC is to guide the GOP back to a majority in the Senate,” wrote Cornyn in a letter to Pennsylvania Republicans. “I can’t do that without Arlen Specter. With him as our nominee, I can target our campaign resources toward beating Democrats and growing the Senate Republican Conference.”
The implication of those lines is clear: if Toomey is the Republican nominee next November, “campaign resources” may not flow from Washington to Pennsylvania.
This is BULL for Specter is a non-reliable vote for the Republican Party at best. Plus, he is 79 years old.
The national GOP committees for years have done nothing but support incumbent Senators regardless of whether they vote with the party or have a chance to win a general election.
Flap recommends that folks donate to their candidate of choice in these 2010 races and stay far away from the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
And, in a further disappointment, looks like RNC Chairman Michael Steele changed his mind.
Former Indiana GOP Congressman Chris ChocolaThe current President of the Club for Growth, Pat Toomey, has stepped down to run against U.S. Senator Arlen Specter for a Pennsylvania Senate seat.
Today, former Indiana Congressman Chris Chocola became the new president of the free-market group, the Club for Growth. The current president, Pat Toomey, stepped down today after recruiting Chocola to take his place so he could pursue other opportunities.
Chris Chocola represented Indianaâ€™s Second Congressional District from 2003 to 2007. During his time in Congress, he was a staunch defender of the American taxpayer, fighting for the limited-government, free-market principles that are the foundation for economic growth in this country. In 2007, Chocola joined the Club for Growthâ€™s Leadership Council.
Pat Toomey should have a good shot at unseating the incumbentSpecter. The early polls are favorable and Specter is scrambling for cover, especially after his swing vote on Obama’s economic stimuls PORKULUS bill.