Chris, I feel your frustration….
In the meantime, President Obama has a perfunctory meeting this morning with Congressional leaders regarding the “Fiscal Cliff” and then he is off for his Asian trip.
So, the financial markets will be jittery as the President jaunts off on a Thanksgiving week trade trip – junket.
There will be NO leadership there since Obama really doesn’t care if the Bush era tax cuts expire or not. And, he knows the feckless GOP will cave at the last minute anyway.
Time for the GOP Congressional leadership to call the President’s bluff and vote to cut taxes for all, but the top wage earners. Then, hit Obama hard on spending cuts that, so far, he has refused to enumerate.
Let’s see if anything gets done by the second week of December.
Somehow, I doubt it.
Chris, President Obama will be traveling today to New York to view the Hurricane Sandy damage and for the obligatory photo opp with his Democratic POL colleagues.
In the midst of a political tempest that has engulfed his former CIA director and his top military commander in Afghanistan, President Barack Obama is traveling to New York City to view recovery efforts from the massive East Coast storm Sandy.
While there today, Obama will meet with affected families, local officials and first responders who have been dealing with the deadly storm, which slammed into New York, New Jersey and other East Coast states late last month, killing more than 100 people and leaving millions without power.
Obama’s visit will include an aerial tour of storm damage, during which he will be joined by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan. Obama also will visit a Federal Emergency Management Agency disaster recovery center and take a walking tour of a neighborhood affected by the storm. Sens. Charles Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, both New York Democrats, will travel with the president aboard Air Force One.
Symbolism over substance?
Well, Obama has proven to be better at campaigns than governing.
I am an optimistic sort for the GOP and bucking the conventional wisdom believe that when all the votes are counted, Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States. Note, my map above still has Iowa up in the air – but is irrelevant at this point.
By the time, the early Midwestern votes come in via exit polls, America should know the trend.
If Romney loses Ohio AND Wisconsin, he is probably toast.
If Obama loses any other state like Pennsylvania or Ohio, the President is done.
Others have offered their, I would say, balanced perspective.
In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, there have been two major schools of thought about who is going to win. One school points to President Obama getting reelected for a very simple reason: polls show Mitt Romney losing Ohio, and all of the states that he would need to win to make up for a loss in Ohio. The other school argues that state polls have been systematically biased against Romney by assuming that Democratic turnout will rival – or even exceed – elevated 2008 levels, when Obamamania was at its peak. Those who believe that Romney will win have pointed to polls showing him ahead among independents, predicted a late break toward the challenger, or pointed to economic fundamentals. To read the conventional wisdom pointing to an Obama win, check out Nate Silver. To read predictions of a Romney win, check out our own Michael Barone, as well as Dan McLaughlin, Ben Domenech, Jay Cost. Also read Ted Frank, who still thinks Obama will likely win, though he makes a strong devil’s advocate argument for how Romney could pull it out.
But, in the end, I think a majority of American voters are not happy with the direction of the country and will willing to vote for a change.
In any case, the majority of the House of Representatives looks safely in the hands of the GOP. The U.S. Senate majority will remain under Democratic Party control.
Balanced or split party government is what Americans desire and that is what they will have after the voting tomorrow.
Here are the latest key battleground state polls:
- Florida: Romney 52%, Obama 47% (InsiderAdvantage)
- Florida: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Public Policy Polling)
- Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Pulse Opinion Research)
- North Carolina: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Public Policy Polling)
- Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Pulse Opinion Research)
- Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Pulse Opinion Research)
- Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)
- Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Pulse Opinion Research)
- Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Pulse Opinion Research)
The Real Clear Politics average of polls and more are here.
As I have been saying for about a week now – the Presidential race is very close and we will be in for an exciting night of election returns.
If the polls are correct, then we will be in for a very late night Tuesday and early morning Wednesday.
The above graphic is how the Presidential race will turn out in the Electoral College on November the 6th. I have Mitt Romney defeating President Obama 271 Electoral Votes vs. 261 Electoral Votes.
Most notable recent changes I have made have been the loss of Ohio to the President and the pick up of Colorado for Romney.
Here is my Electoral College map I made after Mitt Romney chose Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin for his Vice President running mate.
To say the least, the race is tight.
Mitt Romney continues to make a play for Nevada and I understand as of yesterday, he made a very large television ad buy in Northern Nevada – the Reno market.
Recent polling by Rasmussen and Gallup have Ohio all tied up – well within the margins of error. Ohio could go either way. I think Obama now needs Ohio more than Romney in order to win, which goes against the maxim that GOP Presidential wins go through Ohio.
Stay tuned as more polls roll in throughout the next few days.
However, I think, my first map with a 271 Electoral College Vote win for Romney will probably be the end result.
Interesting, isn’t it that on the eve of the third and last Presidential debate there is a “leaked” report or an October Surprise about Iran?
The New York Times reports (and the White House denies) that “The United States and Iran have agreed for the first time to one-on-one negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, according to Obama administration officials, setting the stage for what could be a last-ditch diplomatic effort to avert a military strike on Iran.”
Two of the three assertions in that lead paragraph are demonstrably false. One-on-one negotiations have been going on for years (most recently, according to my friend “Reza Kahlili,” in Doha, where, he was told, Valerie Jarrett and other American officials recently traveled for the latest talks). The only news here is that the talks would no longer be secret. And the notion that only diplomacy can avert “a military strike on Iran” is fanciful. There are at least two other ways: sanctions may compel the regime to stop its nuclear weapons program, or the Iranian people may find a way to overthrow the regime, thereby (perhaps, at least) rendering military action unnecessary.
I rather suspect that you don’t have to do anything to avoid an American military strike on Iran. I can’t imagine an Obama administration authorizing a military attack. An administration that can barely bring itself to fly air cover in Libya, and can’t bring itself to take any serious action in Syria, strikes me as very unlikely to unleash our armed forces against the mullahs.
Even as the debate approaches, remember you can fool some of the people ONLY some of the time.
Anyone want to bet how many times Obama spikes the football regarding the demise of Osama bin Laden tonight?
Sorry readers that I have not recently posted Chris Muir’s Day By Day cartoon. I will try to be more prolific in my posting.
Chris, you have to watch women and that “WEIGHT” issue. Remember that this is way too shallow.
With regards to Candy Crowley’s conduct at the Presidential debate, now that can be criticized.
Is there any doubt that she helped President Obama escape a truthful explanation of the Libya terrorist debacle?
And, didn’t CNN’s Crowley derail Mitt Romney with constant interruptions and allowing President Obama to have more time for his explanations.
The Town Hall format of the debate was a fail and Crowley was a failure.
For the first time, Real Clear Politics and their poll averages has Mitt Romney beating President Obama in the Electoral College.
The map is similar to my map from several months ago.
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
But, what is interesting is that a number of states that many have thought in the Team Obama camp, may be in play – most notably Pennsylvania and Michigan.
The battleground state polls after the Monday night debate, should deliver a clearer picture of what will happen on November 6th.
By the way, the magic number of Electoral College votes to win is 270.
President Obama’s loss of momentum traces back to the first Presidential debate when Mitt Romney schooled the President. But, the latest Gallup Poll is even more telling.
Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday.
While Romney’s four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup’s seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior to that debate — regarded as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it — Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters.
The latest result, from Oct. 9-15, is based on 2,723 likely voters drawn from more than 3,100 registered voters.
And, here is the registered voters poll chart – note the trend.
Here is the chart:
Degreed voters backing off Obama: In 2008, Obama led McCain among postgraduate educated voters by a 30-point margin, while he ran roughly even with McCain among those with lower levels of education. Today, Obama’s postgraduate advantage has been cut to 14 points and he trails Romney among college graduates (those with four-year degrees only) by 22 points. His support from high school graduates and those with some college is also down slightly, providing no counterbalance to his major losses among the college educated.
Southern losses: The South gave Obama the least support of any region in 2008, but still split their vote evenly for Obama vs. McCain. Today, Southerners favor Romney by a 22-point margin, the largest shift of any region. Voters in the East are also less supportive, while preferences in the West and Midwest are little changed.
Young voters stick with him: Young voters were an important part of Obama’s 2008 coalition, and in 2012 they continue to support him overwhelmingly, at roughly the same level as four years ago. The difficulty for Obama is that he currently has less support among each older age group, particularly those aged 30 to 49 years.
White support dwindles: Obama lost the white vote in 2008 by 12 percentage points, but that was more than offset by a 72-point lead among nonwhites. Today, Obama has a more daunting 22-point deficit among whites, while his margin over Romney among nonwhites is essentially unchanged.
Men move away: In 2008, Gallup found a 14-point swing in gender preferences for president, with women favoring Obama by a 14-point margin and men tied in their preferences for Obama vs. McCain. Today, there is a 20-point gender gap. Women’s support for Obama shrank to six percentage points, while men favor Romney by 14 points.
So, what does this all mean?
The President is in trouble for re-election. Mitt Romney has been surging since the first Denver Presidential debate and if Obama does not reverse this course in three weeks there will be a new President come 2013.
Watch the President come out swinging in tonight’s debate.
Obama really has to hit a home run or he is toast.
Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation’s top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.
As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%, while he leads by 12 points among men.
The battle for women, which was apparent in the speakers spotlighted at both political conventions this summer, is likely to help define messages the candidates deliver at the presidential debate Tuesday night and in the TV ads they air during the final 21 days of the campaign. As a group, women tend to start paying attention to election contests later and remain more open to persuasion by the candidates and their ads.
That makes women, especially blue-collar “waitress moms” whose families have been hard-hit by the nation’s economic woes, the quintessential swing voters in 2012’s close race.
The conventional wisdom is that President Obama will be the aggressor at tomorrow night’s town-hall style Presidential debate. But, there is risk to that approach, especially with women.
In any case, Mitt Romney is in far better shape on the eve of the second Presidential debate than he was before the first.