• CA-24,  Elton Gallegly,  Tony Strickland

    CA-24: Rep Elton Gallegly Third Quarter Fundraising Report Reveals $800K Cash on Hand

    California Congressional District 24

    Third quarter fundraising reports are out and Rep. Elton Gallegly, my Congressman, reports over $823 K cash on hand.

    • Contributions: $229,221
    • Expenditures: $157,407
    • Cash on Hand: $823,988
    • Debt: $0

    Here are possible candidates, who may indeed challenge the long-time Republican incumbent.

    • Steve Bennett – Ventura County Supervisor (D), Ventura
    • Richard Francis – Former Ventura City Councilman (D)
    • David Pollock – Moorpark City councilman (D)
    • David Cruz Thayne – Westlake Village Businessman, tennis coach

    Here is the poop on the district:

    Gallegly saw his home drawn into Buck McKeon’s district, but he has represented Ventura County for years. With the additional of Democratic coastal communities in Ventura County added to this district and a resurgence of Democrats in the county this district is very competitive. Gallegly has been rumored to be retiring and this district may just push him over the edge. Democrats have 6-point registration advantage, Obama won this district by 16-points, but Brown lost it by 1-point. GOP state Senator Tony Strickland is looking at running here, though the district is competitive, there are no term limits.

    With this fundraising activity, Gallegly is not laying down or looking like a retirement is imminent. He is active in GOP circles in the district and is home most weekends. Elton would either have to live just outside the district or move a few miles to be within the CA-24 borders.

    However, he is widely know throughout Ventura County, having represented most of the CA-24 for decades.

    I look for Elton to run for re-election, barring any health problems. If he doesn’t, look for California State Senator Tony Strickland to enter the race.

  • Elton Gallegly

    Ventura County Star Poll: Should Rep. Elton Gallegly Retire? The Results = NO

    I guess the poll is over or the Ventura County Star took the poll offline, but it is now down off of their main page. Remember I first mentioned the poll earlier this morning.

    Can the results be any more clear?

    The answer to the question as to whether Rep. Elton Gallegly should retire is NO: 54% No Vs. 36% Yes.

    Now, it is not a huge sample and unscientific as well, but as the reader can see there is no groundswell to get rid of the long-time GOP Congressman.

    Here is the poll as it appeared this morning on the Ventura County Star home page:

  • Elton Gallegly

    Ventura County Star Poll: Should Rep. Elton Gallegly Retire? Vote NO

    Flap’s old Congressional District CA-24 and the new one CA-26

    There has been speculation that Rep. Elton Gallegly (R- Simi Valley), my Congressman, would retire rather than run in the new Ventura County centric CA-26. I shot down the speculation here.

    Today, the Ventura County Star is trying to embarrass the Congressman by asking the question as to whether he should retire or not. The poll is here on their main page about half way down.

    Go here
    and vote AND vote NO!

  • California Citizens Redistricting Commission,  Elton Gallegly

    CA-26: Republican Referendum on Congressional Maps Over?

    Flap’s old Congressional District CA-24 and the new one CA-26

    It looks likely.

    Republicans backing a voter referendum to overturn California’s new congressional maps are on the verge of dropping the effort, sources say.

    One reason is a lack of enthusiasm among California’s GOP congressional delegation. One of the newest but most-prominent members of that delegation — Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield — reportedly led those arguing that it wasn’t worth fighting the new maps.

    At a recent meeting of the National Republican Campaign Committee, several strategists argued that the statewide referendum wasn’t a good use of campaign resources. And some noted that the congressional maps, drawn by a voter-approved independent commission, are more favorable to Republicans than they would have been under a Democrat-controlled gerrymander.

    The effort to put the new congressional maps in front of voters was submitted last month and had been cleared for signature gathering, although no committee had been created to raise funds, according to the secretary of state’s office.

    There was no formal announcement that the ballot referendum campaign for the congressional districts was abandoned. However, in such cases groups typically elect to cease signature gathering, causing the measure to fail once the deadline is passed. The referendum’s sponsor, Julie Vandermost, and its attorney did not return phone calls seeking comment.

    At the recent GOP convention in Los Angeles, there were closed-door discussions about the initiative’s failure to gain traction.

    Plain and simple, the supporters of the referendum (whoever they might be i.e. Gallegly, Dreier, Lungren, Miller, Royce, Bilbray) would have to pony up around $2 million or so to qualify the referendum.

    Even if they could do so, and nobody has shown the interest, the California Supreme Court is no slam dunk to draw Congressional Districts that are any more favorable to the GOP, especially all of the delegation.

    The referendum is a colossal waste of campaign resources. Money that the California Republican Party does NOT have.

    So, back over to my Congressman Elton Gallegly who will now decide to either run and run hard in CA-26 or not.

  • California Citizens Redistricting Commission,  Elton Gallegly

    CA-26: Will Rep. Elton Gallegly Run for Re-Election?

    Flap’s old Congressional District CA-24 and the new one CA-26

    I have known Rep. Elton Gallegly for almost 30 years. While I have not discussed his re-election propsects with him, I do know that he is doing campaign events and recently moved his Congressional office from Westlake Village to Camarillo.

    I say Gallegly is running, despite the referendum (which I understand the campaign for which is NOT actively gathering signatures). There is NO groomed successor and Elton is quite aware that there would be a split in the Ventura County GOP, if he retires at this time. He does not want such a split to be his legacy.

    Elton is also aware that Democrat Rep. Brad Sherman WILL run in CA-26, if Elton retires, since Sherman has represented some of the Congressional District previously. The GOP would be quite content to have Sherman and Howard Berman face off against each other in a San Fernando Valley centric Congressional District.

    So, sorry to California State Senator Tony Strickland and Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks. If you want CA-26, you will have to beat Elton and his $800K bank roll.

    Here is Timm Herdt’s analysis of the race.

    Here are the demographics of the new CA-26 Congressional District.

    And, how the CA-26 performed in previous elections.

  • California Citizens Redistricting Commission,  California State Senate,  David Cruz Thayne,  Elton Gallegly,  Flap's California Morning Collection,  Jerry Brown

    Flap’s California Morning Collection: August 18, 2011

    A morning collection of links and comments about my home, California.

    Westlake Village man announces plans to run for new 26th Congressional District

    David Cruz Thayne, a former professional tennis player from Westlake Village, on Wednesday became the second Democrat to announce plans to run in the newly drawn 26th Congressional District, which covers most of Ventura County.

    Thayne, 40, is a tennis coach and the producer of two tennis-themed documentary films. He joins Moorpark City Councilman David Pollock as the only announced candidates in a district that is expected to attract considerable national attention. It is home to no incumbent and the partisan leanings of its voters are such that the candidates in last fall’s governor’s race were separated by only 1 percentage point.

    The district includes all of Ventura County except for most of the city of Simi Valley and a small slice of the city of Ventura. The city of Westlake Village is the only area of Los Angeles County in the district.

    It is likely the district in which incumbent Rep. Elton Gallegly, R-Simi Valley, will run if he chooses to seek re-election. Although his home is a few blocks outside the district boundary, Gallegly has represented much of the area for the last two decades.

    The incumbent congressman has made no announcement about his plans for 2012.

    California governor not interested in Prop 13 reforms

    Gov. Jerry Brown on Wednesday turned down a challenge from the mayor of Los Angeles to reform Proposition 13, saying he would prefer to focus his attention on bringing financial stability to California.

    Brown was responding to comments by Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who called on the governor and state lawmakers to think big in solving California’s ongoing fiscal problems. The mayor suggested the Prop 13 property tax cap be lifted for businesses and left in place for homeowners.

    Prop 13, however, is seen as untouchable by many politicians in the state because it is so popular with the electorate.

    During a speech Tuesday before the Sacramento Press Club, Villaraigosa urged the governor to convene a commission on tax reform and estimated that gradually lifting the Prop 13 cap for businesses could raise between $2.1 billion and $8 billion a year money the state could invest in education and lower property taxes for homeowners.

    Brown rejected the idea after making a luncheon address at Maddy Institute in Fresno.

    “I’m not planning to join (Villaraigosa), but I certainly welcome the debate,” Brown said. “I will focus my attention on ensuring financial stability and making the state more efficient.”

    Brown did not offer specifics beyond saying he plans to support a ballot initiative next year for new revenue. He also said jobs would come by generating confidence that California is on stable footing.

    One way he might do that is through infrastructure investment.

    Republicans take first step toward overturning new Senate districts

    A group of Republicans has taken the first step toward putting a referendum on the ballot that they hope will lead to the overturning of new Senate districts drawn by a state panel.

    Republican attorney Charles Bell asked the state attorney general in writing to prepare the title and summary of the referendum so that a petition drive can begin to qualify the measure for the ballot. The campaign needs to collect more than 504,000 signatures in 90 days.

    “The belief is that at least a number of the districts were not drawn in accordance with the [federal] Voting Rights Act and some provisions of the state Constitution concerning compactness and avoiding county splits,” said Bell, who is an attorney for the California Republican Party and the new campaign committee Fairness and Accountability in Redistricting.

    Bell said Wednesday he submitted the request on behalf of the campaign committee, which includes Orange County businesswoman Julie Vandermost. The referendum drive is being supported by the state party as well as the Senate Republican Caucus.

    Common Cause blasts referendum targeting new Senate districts

    The head of California Common Cause said Wednesday that a Republican-backed referendum drive to overturn new Senate districts is the work of “partisan insiders” and is attacking a plan that reflects the will of voters who approved an independent redistricting process.

    “This referendum is motivated by pure party politics, funded by incumbents who did not get the safe districts that they wanted,” said Kathay Feng, executive director of California Common Cause.

    Her organization was one of several that supported a 2008 ballot measure that created the 14-member Citizens Redistricting Commission, taking the job of redrawing legislative districts away from lawmakers.

    A referendum drive supported by the California Republican Party and Senate Republican Caucus has filed papers required before groups can begin collecting signatures to put the new districts before the voters.

    Enjoy your morning!

  • California,  Elton Gallegly,  Flap's California Morning Collection,  Poker,  Tony Strickland

    Flap’s California Morning Collection: August 17, 2011

    A morning collection of links and comments about my home, California.

    Internet poker battle waged in Sacramento

    A group of casino operators has taken to radio and television with ads urging state lawmakers to legalize Internet poker in California, prompting opponents to step up pressure for legislators to table the proposal for the year.

    The ads by the California Online Poker Assn. say legalizing web-based poker could help the state avoid deep budget cuts. The spots started airing in the Sacramento area this week. Legislators are less than a month away from the deadline to act on bills this year.

    “Online poker will provide California with $250 million dollars immediately and billions more in the future,’’ said Ryan Hightower, a spokesman for the association.

    The group includes Commerce Casino, Bicycle Club, Hollywood Park Casino and operators of American Indian gaming facilities, including the San Manuel Band of Mission Indians.

    Other American Indian tribes have joined the California Tribal Business Alliance, which Tuesday sent a letter to legislators asking them to drop two pending pieces of legislation for the year.

    The alliance includes the Pala Band of Mission Indians, which operates a casino near Temecula. The alliance argues that Internet poker could take customers away from brick-and-mortar casinos.

    Dan Walters: A corporate tax break Democrats adore – The Film Industry

    Democratic politicians and liberal groups, including unions, often rail against corporate tax loopholes as unjustified raids on the public treasury – as they should.

    Loopholes are particularly troublesome during periods, such as this one, when state and local budgets are leaking red ink and basic public services are being slashed.

    But one multimillion-dollar loophole draws vocal support from those who usually oppose corporate tax breaks – one that happens to benefit a heavily unionized industry whose top executives are overwhelmingly Democrats and contribute lavishly to the party’s candidates and causes.

    That would be Southern California’s movie and television production community.

    California revenues down, Department of Finance confirms

    Gov. Jerry Brown’s Department of Finance said Tuesday that California was $541 million shy of its July revenue forecast, a total similar to one released last week by state Controller John Chiang.

    School officials grew nervous last week because the state budget signed by Brown requires K-12 districts to absorb cuts if the state falls $4 billion shy of revenue expectations for the fiscal year. The budget also would impose cuts to higher education, social services and public safety programs.

    State legislators and Brown tacked on that $4 billion expectation of higher revenues to finish closing the state deficit in June.

    Finance officials, in a department bulletin, cautioned against early concern. They suggested that most of the higher revenues would come on the back end of the fiscal year, from December through June. And they said forecasts by the Legislative Analyst’s Office and Department of Finance in November and December would determine whether the “trigger” cuts are necessary.

    The $541 million in missed revenues represents 9.2 percent of the $5.867 billion that Finance expected the state to receive in July.

    November 2012 Targets – Part Three: The State Senate

    Last week, I made my early picks a to where the action may be for Congress and the state Assembly in November 2012. Now, lets look at the state Senate.

    First, only the 20 odd-numbered districts are up for election in 2012, and, barring a successful court challenge or referendum, the candidates will run in one of the newly drawn districts that the Citizens Redistricting Commission, in their final vote, are expected to approve today, August 15.

    Senators elected in 2010 in one of the 20 even-numbered districts were elected to a four-year term and will represent those districts as drawn until the end of their current term in 2014. Should any of these senators resign his/her seat, a special election would be held to fill the unexpired term, but the election would be held under the old lines. The newly drawn even-numbered districts do not become legal until the 2014 election cycle.

    Here are the odd-numbered senate districts that I pick as possibly being competitive, with the more likely targets being listed first.

    27th Senate District: Republican Sen. Tony Strickland and Democratic Sen. Fran Pavley are gearing up to battle each other for this highly competitive district that encompasses Ventura County’s Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks, and the L.A. County city of Malibu, stretching north through the west San Fernando Valley and ending in Santa Clarita. Forty percent of the voters in this new district reside in the current 19th District represented by Strickland, while thirty-six percent reside in Pavley’s current 23rd District.  It’s also interesting to note that half of the new Senate district overlaps Assembly districts currently represented by Republicans Jeff Gorell and Cameron Smyth, while the other half overlaps Assembly districts currently represented by Democrats Robert Blumenfield and Julia Brownley.

    Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman tied here, 47% -47%, while Carly Fiorina squeaked by Barbara Boxer 47% – 46%.

    Side Note: Should Cong. Elton Gallegly (R) decide to not seek reelection to Congress next year, Strickland could decide to run for the Gallegly congressional seat. That would open the door for Asm. Cameron Smyth (R-Santa Clarita) to run in this district.

    I look for Tony Strickland to run for the Congressional seat of a retiring Elton Gallegly

    Enjoy your morning!

  • American Debt Linit,  Elton Gallegly,  MoveOn.org,  Ventura County Democratic Party

    Video: MoveOn.Org and Ventura County Democrats Protest Rep Elton Gallegly Over Bipartisan Debt Ceiling Deal



    This is just a set up from the Ventura County Democratic Party who astro-turfed this protest in their press releases. You see, the local Democrats know the California Citizen’s Redistricting Commission has gerrymandered Gallegly out of the current CA-24 Congressional district to the newly formed CA-36 which is less GOP friendly.

    So, they go to the streets ala Saul Alinsky to paint Gallegly in the worst “intellectually dishonest” light that they can.

    But, remember the American Debt Limit deal was a bipartisan affair and was supported by Democratic Senators Barbara Boxer AND Dianne Feinstein. President Obama signed the legislation yesterday.

  • California Citizens Redistricting Commission,  California Republican Party,  Elton Gallegly

    California Citizen’s Redistricting Commission Releases Final Ventura County Congressional District Map

    Well, almost final.

    The commission just voted out the new state lines on a 12-2 vote (with two Republicans voting no) and placed them on the Agenda for an official August 15th final vote.  Until then feel free to whine, complain, cuss and gripe to commissioners about their failures.  They can hear you, but they’re probably done listening.

    On August 15th the only option is an up-or-down vote on the maps.  You cannot have your city reunited, get your Assembly Member back.  The plans are final and the only option now would be for the commission to vote the plans down and send them directly to the courts.

    The game now transitions from the 14 members of the commission to the 67 members of Congress and the Legislature that have been drawn out of their seats, nested with other incumbents, or generally screwed over by the citizen process.  A preliminary look at the data on the Redistricting Partners site will show some fun potential pairings and political drama.  The site is now updated with maps (showing partisanship and incumbents), summary data for all districts in just a few pages, and extremely detailed datasheets from PDI for the  Assembly, State Senate and Congressional districts.

    Looking at the Congressional map, it is certain that my GOP Representative Elton Gallegy will either have to move (his home and electoral base in Simi Valley is out of the District), retire, or just run (there is no requirement that you must live in the Congressional District you represent), or run against GOP Rep. Buck McKeon who will represent Simi Valley. Gallegy has options.

    However, the new CA-26 which is what presumably this Congressional District is called is less Republican and more Hispanic in nature.

    Here are the details:

    I will review the possible political scenarios next week after the final adoption of the maps.

    I will also go over the California Assembly and State Senate Districts.

    From my preliminary analysis of the statewide and Ventura County maps, they appear actually fair for the GOP. I, now, doubt that the California Republican Party will support a referendum on the Commission’s work.

    But, then again, you never know and someone is bound to be really upset. But, this time it looks like the incumbent California Democrats.

  • California Citizens Redistricting Commission,  Elton Gallegly,  Jeff Gorell,  Tony Strickland

    California Citizen’s Redistricting Committee Latest Draft Visualization for Ventura County Includes Moorpark But Excludes Simi Valley?

    Visualization from Redistricting Partners

    Apparently so.

    Not a good series of maps
    for long term GOP Representative Elton Gallegly since it appears his home in Simi Valley is outside the district.

    The earlier first draft Congressional map had Simi Valley and Moorpark outside the district. It looks like the California Citizen’s Committee has decided on a compromise with allowing Moorpark in and placing Simi Valley into a primarily Los Angeles County District.

    Here is the Demographic breakdown of the new Ventura County Congressional District:

    The newly drawn Congressional District is not the final one and the Commission has until August to draw final maps. There will be likely challenges after the Commission finishes its work. But, for now, Representative Gallegly would either have to move a few miles to Moorpark or Thousand Oaks or retire. He could off course, stay where he is and run in the new West San Fernando Valley/Santa Clarita Valley District which is now represented by long time GOP Rep. Buck McKeon.

    Should Gallegly retire, two incumbent GOP POLS would reside in the district: California State Senator Tony Strickland and California Assemblyman Jeff Gorell.

    This is, of course, what will happen if the map is not redrawn again in its final adoption by the Commission.