- 45% Allen (R), 32% Kaine (D)
In a very early look at the possible battle for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Jim Webb, registered voters in the Commonwealth preferred former Gov. and U.S. Sen. George Allen, a Republican, over former Gov. Tim Kaine, a Democrat, by 45 percent to 32 percent with 23 percent undecided. [Please note that the margin of error for this question was + 5.2 percent because it was asked only of the 360 registered voters in the sample.]
Among the battleground groups, Kaine led among political moderates (41%-34%), while Allen led among Independent voters (40%-35%). Not surprisingly, Allen led among Republicans (78%-4%) and conservatives (68%-10%) while Kaine led among Democrats (79%-12%) and liberals (83%-10%). Allen’s lead could be attributed to the large number of conservatives in Virginia, a finding that closely matches the December, 2010 Roanoke College Poll.
Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:
- President Obama 34% Vs. 57%
Certainly, this is a good poll for the Republicans but remember it is very early and the poll was taken prior to Tim Kaine officially announcing his candidacy (although it was widley anticipated).
Perceptions of the Commonwealth have improved since the December poll, with almost half (49%) saying that things in Virginia are going in the right direction and 36 percent saying things are on the wrong track. (December results were 45 percent right direction and 43 percent wrong track.) At the same time, Governor Bob McDonnell’s approval rating is now 66 percent, up from 57 percent in December.
With regard to the nation, 71 percent of respondents believe that things are on the wrong track with only 20 percent believing that things are going in the right direction. This is essentially unchanged from December. President Obama’s approval rating is now 34 percent, compared to 36 percent in December, well within the polls’ margin of error.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- George Allen: 39 / 40
- Tim Kaine: 46 / 38
- 47% Kaine (D), 47% Allen (R)
2/24-27/11; 524 likely voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
Should President Obama prevail and convince former Virginia Governor Tim Kaine to run, this may very well be the hardest fought Senate seat in 2012.
Former Virginia Senator George Allen and Senator Jim WebbGuess former Republican Senator George Allen who is running in 2012 for his old seat will have to find another opponent.
Virginia Senator Jim Webb plans to announce today that he won’t seek reelection, a senior Senate source said.
Webb appeared likely to face a rematch with former Senator George Allen, whom he beat in a bruising 2006 contest. He had expressed ambivalence about the prospect of another run, and has said he never planned a life in politics.
Senate Democratic leaders view Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine, the former Virginia governor, as a top prospect to replace him, despite Kaine’s disavowals that he’s looking at the race.
It would have been more than likely that George Allen wold have been able to beat Webb in a 2012 race – so Webb took the easy way out and retired.
Good riddance – Webb is a miserable person and POL.
Former Virginia Senator George Allen and Senator Jim WebbVirginia is not a small state and Senator Jim Webb’s fundraising has been poor. Is it because he is NOT running for re-election?
It’s a natural and defensible impulse to try to draw conclusions about Virginia Sen. Jim Webb’s lackluster fundraising quarter.
Reports by The Hill and then USA Today that the Marine only raised $12,000 during the final three months of the year immediately lead to the conclusion that Webb is less likely to pursue a second term.
But there might not be a senator’s financial report that’s less instructive than Jim Webb’s.
It’s no secret he doesn’t enjoy the game of politics, let alone the unseemly and draining process of raising money. And if those who claim to know him best are being forthright, it’s just as possible that Webb wants to truly settle on a decision before he slugs through dialing for dollars in a secluded, colorless room at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Webb enters 2011 with just $440,000 on hand. To put things in perspective, while that number will undoubtedly fall on the low end of the fundraising spectrum, it’s not significantly less than some of his colleagues, like Sen. Jon Tester and Sen. Jeff Bingaman.
Yes, those are smaller, cheaper states. But to be sure, Webb isn’t really even trying yet.
Looks to me that Webb lacks the “fire in his belly” to run against George Allen again – especially with 2012 expected not to be as good for Democrats as 2006 when President George W. Bush was under seige from the Iraq War.
But, if Webb decides to run, it will be a tough campaign in a rematch with George Allen.
This Senate contest in Virginia will be a battle royal.
We polled the Jim Webb/George Allen rematch that’s now become a reality late last year and found Webb ahead 49-45.
Senator Jim Webb has really not made a move to run for re-election, but it is assumed that he will. George Allen will announce his candidacy later in the day.
In a state where the Republican nominee for President must win, if he or she is to beat President Obama, this race may revolve around turnout. This contest will involve a lot of personal campaigning and plenty of television ads in one of the most expensive Senate races in the country.
Former Virgiinia Senator George AllenGood for Allen.
George Allen, the former U.S. senator and Virginia governor, plans to tell supporters within a week that he is mounting a campaign to retake the Senate seat he lost to Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) in 2006. Allen, 58, the most prominent 2012 challenger to announce so far, has begun to line up key staff members. Webb, 64, who won by 1 percent, has sent mixed signals about whether he will seek reelection. DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, a former Virginia governor who could be the Democratic nominee if Webb bowed out, has been telling friends he thinks Webb will run. The rematch could be one of the hottest races in the country, especially if President Obama’s reelection campaign plays hard in the Old Dominion.
Everyone, including me went after him for his MACACA comment which he made against a Democrat Party “tracker” who was videoing Allen’s every move. This Alinsky type tactic was early in its implementation and Allen fell for the trap.
It cost him a very close election. But, Democrat Senator Webb has been not an exemplary Senator and Virginia has been growing “RED.”
George Allen has an excellent chance against Jim Webb.
But, the campaign will be BRUTAL.
Montana Democrat U.S. Senator Jon Tester – a GOP target in 2012The National Republican Senatorial Committee has released its target list for 2012.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has its eyes on five key races that could pave the way for the GOP to take the majority in the upper chamber in 2012.
NRSC Executive Director Ron Jesmer said in an interview with CNN published Wednesday that the committee believes there is “fertile ground” for Republicans gains in Montana, Virginia, Nebraksa, Florida and North Dakota.
Jesmer said that centrist Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson (D) is in “serious trouble and kind of in a league of his own,” and that Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) also “is in a lot of trouble.”
“There are other states where depending on if one candidate runs, there could be some other good challenges,” he added.
The official’s comments provide an early preview to the GOP’s strategy heading into the 2012 Senate campaign, when the party is expected to make gains on the Democrats and take the majority.
Montana, Nebraska and North Dakota were won by 2008 GOP presidential nominee John McCain. Florida and Virginia flipped from red to blue two years ago, but some see the states tilting back to the GOP after the party picked up a number of House seats in each state.
Barring any GOP blow up in the next year, I see a relatively easy time for the GOP to take control of the Senate in 2012 – or at least come within a few seats, but have an in effect operating majority.
Ben Nelson in Nebraska is toast as are North Dakota’s Kent Conrad and Montana’s Jon Tester.
Former Virginia Senator George Allen has a good chance to best the irascible and weird Jim Webb (if he runs).
It will be good Dem Senate hunting for the GOP in 2012.
Democrats wrested control of the Senate from Republicans Wednesday with an upset victory in Virginia, giving the party complete domination of Capitol Hill for the first time since 1994.
Jim Webb’s squeaker win over incumbent Sen. George Allen gave Democrats their 51st seat in the Senate, an astonishing turnabout at the hands of voters unhappy with Republican scandal and unabated violence in Iraq. Allen was the sixth Republican incumbent senator defeated in Tuesday’s elections.
The Senate breakdown will be 49-49-2 with the two independents voting with the Democrats.
The Senate had teetered at 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans for most of Wednesday, with Virginia hanging in the balance. Webb’s victory ended Republican hopes of eking out a 50-50 split, with Vice President Dick Cheney wielding tie-breaking authority.
The Associated Press contacted election officials in all 134 localities where voting occurred, obtaining updated numbers Wednesday. About half the localities said they had completed their postelection canvassing and nearly all had counted outstanding absentees. Most were expected to be finished by Friday.
The new AP count showed Webb with 1,172,538 votes and Allen with 1,165,302, a difference of 7,236. Virginia has had two statewide vote recounts in modern history, but both resulted in vote changes of no more than a few hundred votes.
An adviser to Allen, speaking on condition of anonymity because his boss had not formally decided to end the campaign, said the senator wanted to wait until most of canvassing was completed before announcing his decision, possibly as early as Thursday evening.
The adviser said that Allen was disinclined to request a recount if the final vote spread was similar to that of election night.
The victory puts Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., in line to become Senate majority leader. He has led the Democrats since Tom Daschle, D-S.D., was defeated two years ago.
The Macaca Flap killed George Allen and the GOP’s control of the United States Senate.
This Democrat Party majority may not be so easy to defend in 2008 – where the attention now goes.
The Dems up for re-election in ’08 include Max Baucus in Montana, Tim Johnson in South Dakota, Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, Mark Pryor in Arkansas, Tom Harkin in Iowa, and Jay Rockefeller in West Virginia. (Other “safe” Democrats include Slow Joe Biden, Dick Durbin, Carl Levin, John Kerry, Frank Lautenber, and Rhode Island’s Jack Reed.) Baucus, Johnson, Landrieu, Pryor, Harkin and Rockefeller all must have begun worrying about the burden they will have to carry in ’08. The first order of business for the GOP will be recruitment of great challengers for these races.
Time to get busy and recruit some good candidates.
Any bets that James Webb will be Hillary’s vice presidential running mate in 2008?