The lead comes from Ventura County mail-in ballots which were received after the time to process them before election day.

Republican Tony Strickland took an 840-vote lead over Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson Thursday in the oh-so-close balloting in the 19th Senate District, the first day of what could be a monthlong process to determine the winner of the most expensive political contest in Ventura County history.

Strickland emerged with a lead after Ventura County election officials counted 11,294 mail-in-ballots that hadn’t been received in time to process before Election Day. His 948-vote net gain allowed him to leapfrog ahead of Jackson, who led by 108 votes after election night.

The votes counted Thursday were exceptionally rich for Strickland. He was the choice on 58.6 percent of the new ballots counted, well above the percentage by which he carried Ventura County and also above the percentage he received of the mail-in ballots from the county that were tabulated on Election Day.

The lead may be short-lived since Santa Barbara County will release its mail-in ballots today. On the other hand, Strickland supporting Los Angeles County is liable to add to Strickland’s total.

Next, will be the fight for the provisional ballots and a possible state mandated audit.

Flap bets Strickland will win this race eventually but hang on because the lead may change a couple more times over the next few weeks.

Wow!

The election yesterday settled NOTHING (Jackson leads by 108 votes with thousands yet to be counted) in the California State Senate District 19 which includes portions of Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles Counties.

Timm Herdt of the Ventura County Star has the poop and the numbers.

• Elections officials have processed and counted mail-in ballots that were delivered in the mail through last Friday. All ballots that were delivered via mail on Saturday, Monday and yesterday have not been counted. To these, add all the mail-in ballots that were dropped off at voting precincts yesterday. Finally, add all provisional ballots that were cast. These are the votes that will now determine the outcome.
• Provisional ballots are cast by voters who showed up at the polls and, for some reason or another, weren’t on the rolls. Ventura County Clerk-Recorder Philip Schmit told me last night that there was an unusually high number of provisional ballots cast yesterday.

• The tallying of the outstanding ballots won’t begin until tomorrow or Friday at the earliest, Schmit said. The process could take two weeks.

• California law requires an automatic recount of 10 percent of the ballots in any contest in which the outcome is within half a percentage point. If the contest remains within that margin after the first 10 percent of ballots are recounted, then another 10 percent are recounted, and so on.

Ventura County is where Tony Strickland is strong and many GOP voters vote by mail.

Stay tuned but Flap thinks this race albeit tight today will ultimately go to Republican Tony Strickland.

If fundraising is an indicator of success at the polls, former Republican Assemblyman Tony Strickland will win California’s District 19 State Senate race.

The candidates in the 19th Senate District campaign have now raised more than $7 million combined, campaign finance reports filed Thursday show.

In what could be the most expensive legislative campaign in California history, Republican Tony Strickland has taken in $4.3 million, and Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson has raised $2.7 million.

Thursday’s reports, which cover the period from Oct. 1 to 18, show that each raised nearly $1 million in less than three weeks.

Late contribution reports filed this week show that the two have combined to take in an additional $348,500 since Sunday.

Other reports filed Thursday show that independent expenditure groups have topped the $1 million mark in spending, putting the combined total resources dedicated to this campaign at $8 million and counting.

So, what does this mean for the Strickland campaign?

The 19th state senate district continues to hold a registration edge of Republican registrants over Democrats (albeit a small one). With more campaign dollars, Tony Strickland’s campaign and the the GOP GOTV (Get Out The Vote) operation will be in high gear turning out their base voters.

Remember California has early voting with a huge absentee ballot component. The campaign dollar edge will go along way in the waning days of the campaign to assure their message to undecided voters is delivered by mail, television, radio and telephone.

Stay tuned……

 

 

 

The Los Angeles Times has a piece up this morning about the Tony Strickland – Hannah-Beth Jackson race. The premise is that both are attempting to attrack moderate voters to win California’s 19th State Senate District.

But as they face off for the 19th state Senate District seat covering much of Ventura and Santa Barbara counties and Santa Clarita in Los Angeles County, both candidates are moving to the center in a bid to win over the crucial block of moderate voters who will probably decide the election.

With no incumbent and voter registration split nearly equally between Republicans and Democrats, big money and attention is pouring into the race. Republicans don’t want to lose the seat held by termed-out Republican Sen. Tom McClintock, and Democrats badly want a win to move the party closer to a two-thirds supermajority needed to pass budget and tax measures, analysts say.

“It’s the hottest race on the Senate side,” said Allan Hoffenblum, editor of the nonpartisan California Target Book. “It’s a centrist district that leans Republican, but it’s anything but a safe seat.”

The 19th district has changed over the past four years with fewer GOP registered voters but the Republicans continue to hold a slight registration edge. This spells an uphill climb for Jackson who is a left-wing partisan from renowned liberal and Democrat dominated Santa Barbara.

Tony Strickland MUST turn out all of his GOP base and a few other voters and he wins. In the closing days of the Presidential race, should McCain precipitously decline in the polls, he must work his GOTV to make sure Republicans vote. However, Proposition 8, the Gay Marriage proposition, will likely motivate many Evangelical, conservative Catholic and Mormon voters to the voting booth. This will help Strickland.

Now, it is all about turnout and how the campaigns work the phones, walk the precincts and get out the vote, including absentee ballots. Whoever has the better political organization wins.

Stay tuned……

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