• Herman Cain,  Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Ron Paul,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 27% Palin 16% Cain 9% Paul 7% Pawlenty 6%

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Republicans’ support for Mitt Romney as their party’s 2012 presidential nominee has increased significantly to 24%, compared with 17% in late May. As a result, Romney has widened his advantage over Sarah Palin in the latest update on rank-and-file Republicans’ nomination preferences.

    Going into tonight’s first GOP Presidential debate (without Sarah Palin in the field, by the way), Mitt Romney clearly is the front-runner for the GOP nomination. Unless another candidate emerges, the path to the GOP nomination should be Romney’s to lose.

    These results are based on a June 8-11 USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted on the eve of a candidate debate in New Hampshire that will be the first to include some of the better-known candidates.

    Romney appears to have gotten a boost in recent weeks after the official announcement of his candidacy. Gallup’s prior update of May 20-24 came just after former co-leaders Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announced they were not candidates for the nomination; that poll showed Romney and Palin in a virtual tie. Since then, Romney’s support has increased and Palin’s has been flat, leaving Romney with an eight-percentage-point advantage.

    That is the largest numerical lead Gallup has measured for any candidate since it first began measuring nomination preferences in September. In that initial September poll, Romney held a seven-point advantage over the field of candidates. Romney or Huckabee held slim margins of no more than four points in subsequent polls.

    No candidate besides Romney has shown a significant increase in support since the May update, though Rick Santorum, who also recently announced his official candidacy, saw his support rise from 2% to 6%. Meanwhile, support for Newt Gingrich, whose campaign has been off to a rocky start since his official announcement last month, is now at 5%, a slight decline since May. The high point for Gingrich was 13% in November.

    And, Romney’s lead over the field expands with Sarah Palin out of the field.

    Let’s look at the graph:

    Note with Sarah Palin gone, Michele Bachmann does not rise substantially in the polls with Palin voters being redistributed throughout the field. However, Bachmann will stick in Iowa and be able to gain momentum there. Whereas, this is a national poll.

    What are the demographics of the GOP voters?

    The graph:

    So, what does this all mean?

    Mitt Romney is the early front-runner and the only challenger who is close in the polls is Sarah Palin, who has not decided whether to run or not. A number of candidates remain in the field but their chances of winning the nomination appear remote.

    Perhaps tonight’s GOP Presidential debate will deliver some momentum to the third and fourth tier candidates. But, I doubt it. This race is Romney’s to win or lose.

    Romney may be emerging as a front-runner in a GOP race that has been characterized to date by its lack of a leading candidate. Republican nomination contests usually have a clear front-runner, and that candidate often goes on to win. But that did not hold true in the last presidential election cycle, when Rudy Giuliani led in national preference polls throughout 2007 but performed poorly in the actual nominating contests in 2008. Additionally, even if Romney were to expand his lead into the double digits in the coming months, he still would rate as one of the weakest Republican front-runners in recent GOP nominating history.

    Romney remains behind lesser-known candidates Cain and Bachmann in Gallup’s measure of positive intensity toward candidates, though his score seems to be on the rise.

    Whether Romney is actually assuming the mantle of the front-runner will be clear in future polls. The current results could be a short-term bounce due to increased attention paid to his campaign after his official entry into the race, or could indicate a more lasting shift in preferences that has put him in the top position in the GOP field.

  • Herman Cain,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Ron Paul,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Palin 22% Romney 20% Cain 7% Paul 7%

    According to the latest Ipsos/Reuters Poll.

    • GOP Primary Election:
    • Sarah Palin – 22%
    • Mitt Romney – 20%
    • Herman Cain – 7%
    • Ron Paul – 7%

    General Election:

    Obama leads all potential Republican challengers by double-digit margins, the poll showed. He is ahead of his closest Republican rival, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, by 13 percentage points — 51 percent to 38 percent.

    In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, the other Republican contenders fared even worse than Romney’s 13-point gap in a match-up with Obama. Palin trailed Obama by 23 points and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty was behind by 19 points.

    State of the Country:

    • 35% Right Direction Vs. 60% Wrong Track

    This is the first poll I have seen with Sarah Palin leading the pack. But, if nominated, she trails President Obama by a whopping 23 points.

    The poll, conducted Friday through Monday, surveyed 1,132 adults nationwide by telephone, including 948 registered voters. The margin of error is 3 percentage points.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Ron Paul,  Rudy Giuliani,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Poll Watch: Romney 32% Paul 9% Gingrich 6% Palin 5% Bachmann 4%

    According to the latest University of New Hampshire/WMUR/CNN Poll.

    Primary Election Head to Head:

    • Romney  32% 
    • Paul  9% 
    • Gingrich  6% 
    • Giuliani  6% 
    • Palin  5% 
    • Bachmann  4% 
    • Cain  4% 
    • Daniels #  4% 
    • Huntsman  4% 
    • Pawlenty  4% 
    • Santorum  2% 
    • Johnson  * 
    • Someone else  3% 
    • No opinion  17% 

    * Less than 1%    # Daniels announced that he would not run on last day of interviewing. 

    Satisfied with GOP candidates? – Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you  with the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination for President next year?  Are you 

    very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

    • Very satisfied  9% 
    • Somewhat satisfied  42% 
    • Somewhat dissatisfied  28% 
    • Very dissatisfied  15% 
    • No opinion  6% 

    Strongest GOP Leader:

    • Romney  40% 
    • Giuliani  12% 
    • Gingrich  11% 
    • Palin  3% 
    • Paul  3% 
    • Pawlenty  3% 
    • Bachmann  2% 
    • Cain  1% 
    • Daniels  1% 
    • Santorum  1% 
    • Huntsman  * 
    • Johnson  * 
    • Someone else  2% 
    • No opinion  20%

    Most Believable GOP candidate:

    • Romney  20% 
    • Paul  12% 
    • Gingrich  7% 
    • Palin  6% 
    • Bachmann  5% 
    • Cain  5% 
    • Giuliani  5% 
    • Pawlenty  5% 
    • Huntsman  4% 
    • Daniels  3% 
    • Santorum  2% 
    • Someone else  2% 
    • No opinion  23%

    Most Likeable GOP candidate:

    • Romney  29% 
    • Palin  10% 
    • Giuliani  8% 
    • Paul  7% 
    • Bachmann  6% 
    • Pawlenty  6% 
    • Gingrich  4% 
    • Cain  3% 
    • Huntsman  2% 
    • Santorum  2% 
    • Daniels  1% 
    • Johnson  * 
    • Karger  * 
    • Roemer  * 
    • Someone else  3% 
    • No opinion  17%

    Best GOP candidate to beat President Obama:

    • Romney  42% 
    • Giuliani  4% 
    • Pawlenty  4% 
    • Daniels  3% 
    • Gingrich  3% 
    • Palin  3% 
    • Bachmann  2% 
    • Cain  2% 
    • Huntsman  2% 
    • Paul  1% 
    • Santorum  1% 
    • Someone else  2% 
    • No opinion  31%

    Is there any doubt that Mitt Romney is far and above any other candidate in New Hampshire?


  • Donald Trump,  Herman Cain,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Ron Paul,  Rudy Giuliani,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 20% Vs. Palin 12% Vs. Gingrich 9% Vs. Giuliani 7%

    According to the latest Suffolk University Poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Barack Obama – 51% Vs. 42%
    • Mitt Romney –  39% Vs. 32%
    • Mitch Daniels – 10% Vs. 14% Never heard of = 46%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 18% Vs. 16% Never heard of = 38%
    • Newt Gingrich – 29% Vs. 50%
    • Michele Bachmann – 20% vs. 28% Never heard of = 30%
    • Ron Paul – 24% Vs. 34%
    • Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 58%

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 47% Vs. 45%

    Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be re-elected or is it time to give someone else a chance?

    • Deserve Re-election – 43% 
    • Someone else – 48%

    GOP Primary Head to Head:

    • Romney – 20%
    • Palin – 12%
    • Gingrich – 9%
    • Giuliani – 7%
    • Paul – 5%
    • Daniels – 4%
    • Cain – 4%
    • Bachmann – 4%
    • Pawlenty – 3%

    General Election:

    • Obama – 46% vs. Romney – 43%
    • Obama – 47% Vs. Pawlenty – 31%
    • Obama – 50% Vs. Bachmann – 30%
    • Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 38%
    • Obama – 48% Vs. Daniels – 30%

    Is the economy improving or getting worse?

    • Improving – 41%
    • Getting Worse – 46%

    This is again a national poll and it is not certain that Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels or Rudy Giuliani will be candidates. And, the poll was taken before Huckabee and Trump dropped out.

    But, at the present time, it looks like you would have to consider Mitt Romney as the front runner.

    The nationwide survey of 1,070 United States likely voters was conducted May 10-17, 2011, using live telephone interviews. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Paul Ryan,  Polling,  President 2012,  Ron Paul,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    Wisconsin GOP President 2012 Poll Watch: Ryan 30% Vs Huckabee 17% Vs Gingrich 12% Vs Palin and Romney 9%

    According to the latest PPP poll.

    • Paul Ryan – 30%
    • Mike Huckabe – 17%
    • Newt Gingrich – 12%
    • Sarah Palin – 9%
    • Mitt Romney – 9%
    • Ron Paul – 5%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 4%
    • Mitch Daniels – 3%

    What is surprising is how poorly Mitt Romney is doing in Wisconsin, finishing tied with Sarah in fourth place. He does no better if you take Rep Paul Ryan out of the race, continuing to finish fourth.

    If you take the Wisconsin favorite son, Rep. Paul Ryan out of the race then:

    • Mike Huckabee – 23%
    • Sarah Palin – 15%
    • Newt Gingrich – 15%
    • Mitt Romney – 12%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 10%
    • Ron Paul – 5%
    • Mitch Daniels – 3%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Ryan – 67% Vs. 10%
    • Palin – 65% Vs. 25%
    • Huckabee – 58% Vs. 18%
    • Gingrich – 54% Vs. 23%
    • Romney – 49% Vs. 25%

    So, the race is bunched and two of the frontrunners, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin are doubtful candidates.

    Huckabee’s shaping up to be the strongest Republican candidate in the Big Ten states- in addition to his lead on this Wisconsin poll, he’s also led in every other every state we’ve polled in the region so far in 2011- Pennsylvania, Nebraska, and Iowa. If Huckabee does end up running you’re going to have his strength in the South and Midwest butting up against Romney’s strength in the Northeast and West.

    This is a bit of a broken record but still an important point: Republican voters love Sarah Palin but don’t want her to be their Presidential candidate. She has the highest favorability of the GOPers besides Ryan, 7 points higher than Huckabee’s and 11 points higher than Gingrich’s. But she still runs 8 points behind Huckabee on Presidential nomination choice and just ties with Gingrich. Liking someone and thinking they should occupy the White House are two very different things.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Ron Paul,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Mitt Romney 24% Sarah Palin 19% Mike Huckabee 17%

    Another national survey for the GOP Presidential nomination is out – this time from Rasmussen.

    • Mitt Romney – 24%
    • Sarah Palin – 19%
    • Mike Huckabee – 17%
    • Newt Gingrich – 11%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 6%
    • Ron Paul – 4%
    • Mitch Daniels – 3%
    • Some other candidate – 6%
    • Undecided – 10%

    The survey of 1,000 Likely GOP Primary Voters was conducted on January 18, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. Likely GOP Primary Voters include both Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a GOP Primary. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

    It is early and national polls are, well, national. But, Mitt Romney does not have a commanding lead and conservative candidates Palin, Huckabee and Gingrich polling totals combined overwhelm him.

    There is little doubt that Republican voters are looking for an alternative to Mitt Romney.

  • Ben Bernanke,  Ron Paul

    Ron Paul: Absolutely Bizarre

    Congressman Ron Paul, R- Texas questioning Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Note around 3:20 or so when Bernanke calls Paul’s specific allegations “absolutely bizarre.”

    I thought we got rid of the KOOK, Ron Paul, after the 2008 Presidential election. I guess the young folks at CPAC did not get the message when they voted for Ron Paul for the 2012 GOP Presidential nod. Maybe they should have seen today’s display in the Congress before casting those ballots.

    Make no mistake Ron Paul is NOT a serious politician and is as nutty as a fruitcake.

    Plus, there is an interesting piece today minimizing Ron Paul’s import to the future of the conservative movement.

    Does that mean we need Paul?

    “Congressman Paul is committed to bringing the conservative movement back to its traditional platform of limited government, balanced budgets and a foreign policy of nonintervention,” claims Jesse Benton, Paul’s spokesman.

    If only it stopped there. Paul isn’t a traditional conservative. His obsession with long-decided monetary policy and isolationism are not his only half-baked crusades. Paul’s newsletters of the ’80s and ’90s were filled with anti-Semitic and racist rants, proving his slumming in the ugliest corners of conspiracyland today is no mistake.

    Perhaps the greatest tragedy of Paul is that thousands of intellectually curious young people will have read his silly books, including End the Fed, as serious manifestoes. Though you wouldn’t know it by listening to Paul or reading his words, libertarians do have genuine ideas that conservatives might embrace.

    I discussed those silly newsletters that Ron Paul either wrote or edited (published under his name but not edited, who knows?) many months ago. But, there is more than just the newsletters and it all points to out of the mainstream political extremism, racism and anti-Semitism.

    Again, I thought we put Ron Paul and his nutsoid rants to bed in 2008.

    Time for him to go now…….actually, it is embarassing……


    The Ron Paul archives

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  • Chuck DeVore,  Ron Paul

    CA-Sen: Chuck DeVore Drawing Upon Ron Paul and Teaching the GOP a Lesson

    California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore interviewed by John D Villarreal, Esq.

    In this kind of creepy interview, Chuck DeVore panders to the Ron Paul faction of the RIGHT but doesn’t quite articulate what Federal Reserve or taxation Paulite policies with which he is in agreement. But, it was apparently good enough to get a mention over at the Ron Paul forums.

    Chuck goes on to lecture the GOP as to what the party should be “because the parties are NOT receptacles of principles.”


    Then, why NOT run as an independent?

    Anyway, watch the rest of the video and see that Devore is running as much to stick it to the establishment GOP leadership as he is to beat Democrat Senator Barbara Boxer. I thought the point was to win the election.

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  • GOP,  Ron Paul

    Ron Paul – Why GOP Online Efforts May Fall Flat

    captbcdd03c171594fe78a2yv3 Ron Paul Watch: Its OVER Baby

    Congressman Ron Paul, R-Texas

    The buzz preceding today’s Republican National Committe Chariman debate base has been increasing technology and internet based efforts.

    But, will the GOP be able to successfully incorprate a successful strategy with Ron Paul in the mix?

    Here’s a mark of the continuing energy behind Ron Paul, and the parallel lack thereof among other Republican Party structures, particularly online: the Digg-style website set up by Americans for Tax Reform for its Republican National Committee Chairman debate tomorrow has been entirely taken over by Paul supporters.

    Flap supports a balanced strategy and no draconian change in the party apparatus. It wasn’t the internet that hurt the party brand and caused electoral losses.

    The internet ALONE will not lead the Republican Party back to electoral success. And, Ron Paul is a symptom of foolish extremism that is but a minor diversion which will fade.

    Watch the RNC Chairman debate live here.

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  • President 2008,  Ron Paul

    Ron Paul Watch: It’s OVER Baby

    Congressman Ron Paul, R-Texas

    Ron Paul’s campaign for the Presidency is over.

    Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul will end his campaign Thursday night and announce a new effort to help elect libertarian-leaning Republicans to public office around the country.

    Campaign spokesman Jesse Benton said the announcement, expected during a rally coinciding with the Texas GOP State Convention in Houston, was “not a disappointment at all. I think this is really exciting.”

    Paul’s announcement will be a formality.

    And, Paul will NOT endorse John McCain for President.

    It was apparent that Paul would have NO role at the GOP Convention in September and he had already planned a mini alternative convention for his followers.

    Paul’s impact on the GOP this fall = NONE.