President 2012: Rick Perry Gets Physical …..Against Ron Paul

Posted 1 CommentPosted in President 2012, Rick Perry, Ron Paul

I missed this since I wasn’t at the debate.
During the Sept. 7 Republican debate, Ron Paul clashed with fellow Texan Rick Perry once again.

This time, things got physical.

During a commercial break, Perry walked up to Paul’s podium, physically grabbed Paul’s wrist, and pointed at Paul’s face with his other hand (photo below from Reuters).

Perry and Paul were placed next to each other at the center for the Republican debate.

Before the physical exchange, the war of words between Paul and Perry was perhaps even more heated.

Now all of the Ronbots who already hate Rick Perry will be all over him….

Looks like Perry is telling Dr. Paul to take his meds.

President 2012 GOP Iowa Poll Watch: Perry 22% Vs. Romney 19% Vs. Bachmann 18% Vs. Paul 16%

Posted 3 CommentsPosted in Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Rick Perry, Ron Paul, Sarah Palin

According to the latest PPP Poll.

The race is pretty close four ways in Iowa but Rick Perry is the new favorite among Republican voters in the state. Among announced candidates he’s at 22% to 19% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Michele Bachmann, and 16% for Ron Paul. Further back are Herman Cain at 7%, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum at 5%, and Jon Huntsman at 3%.

If you throw Sarah Palin into the mix the numbers are pretty similar with Perry at 21%, Romney at 18%, Bachmann at 15%, Paul at 12%, and Palin registering at only 10%.

Looks like Texas Governor Rick Perry has leap frogged over Michele Bachmann to become the anti-Romney candidate. Bachmann is fading even after her Ames Straw Poll win.

Now, the question is will Sarah Palin jump into this race and if so, how will she play in light of her lower poll numbers? Will Palin even be a player in Iowa?

The entire poll is here.

President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 48% Vs. Obama 46%, Perry 47% Vs. Obama 47%

Posted Posted in Barbara Boxer, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Rick Perry, Ron Paul

According to the latest Gallup Poll.
President Barack Obama is closely matched against each of four possible Republican opponents when registered voters are asked whom they would support if the 2012 presidential election were held today. Mitt Romney leads Obama by two percentage points, 48% to 46%, Rick Perry and Obama are tied at 47%, and Obama edges out Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann by two and four points, respectively.

These prospective election ballots — measured Aug. 17-18, well over a year before the Nov. 6, 2012, election — indicate that the race for president at this point is generally competitive, with voters fairly evenly divided in their preference for giving Obama a second term or electing a Republican candidate. Even though the four Republican candidates tested have varying degrees of name recognition, they all fare roughly the same.

Gallup’s generic presidential ballot — measured six times this year — shows a close race between Obama and a generic “Republican presidential candidate,” although there have been survey-to-survey variations on this measure, with the Republican candidate leading in June and July.

This a poor poll for President Obama’s re-election efforts. Just about any GOP Presidential candidate, including Ron Paul are within striking distance.

Plus, this poses a dilemma of sorts because who does the LEFT attack when any of the candidates that are running for the GOP nomination are in a good position to beat you.

President Obama is at the moment in a rough parity position when registered voters are asked whether they would vote for him in election matchups against four potential Republican candidates. Romney fares slightly better than the other GOP candidates, and Bachmann slightly worse, but these are not large differences. Gallup research shows that these types of election measures at this stage in the campaign are not highly stable, and one can expect changes in the relative positioning of Obama and various GOP candidates in the months ahead.

President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Poll Watch: Michele Bachmann Now in Second Place to Mitt Romney

Posted Posted in Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty

According to the latest Suffolk University Poll.

While former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains a front-runner in New Hampshire, Michele Bachmann climbed 8 points since May, to 11 percent, according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WHDH TV) poll of likely voters in New Hampshire’s GOP presidential primary.

Bachmann’s gain was more than that of any other candidate. Romney, with 36 percent support, gained 1 point since Suffolk University’s last Granite State poll was released nearly two months ago.

GOP Primary election:

  • Mitt Romney – 36%
  • Michele Bachmann – 11%
  • Ron Paul – 8%
  • Rudy Giuliani – 5%
  • Sarah Paln – 4%
  • Jon Huntsman – 4%
  • Tim Pawlenty – 2%
  • Newt Gingrich – 2%

Michele Bachmann distinguished herself in he Manchester, New Hampshire debate a few weeks ago and it is paying her dividends in the polls.

Among those who watched the Republican Presidential debate in Manchester earlier this month, 33 percent said Romney won the debate, while 31 percent gave the win to Bachmann.

President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 27% Palin 16% Cain 9% Paul 7% Pawlenty 6%

Posted Posted in Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Ron Paul, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty

According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Republicans’ support for Mitt Romney as their party’s 2012 presidential nominee has increased significantly to 24%, compared with 17% in late May. As a result, Romney has widened his advantage over Sarah Palin in the latest update on rank-and-file Republicans’ nomination preferences.

Going into tonight’s first GOP Presidential debate (without Sarah Palin in the field, by the way), Mitt Romney clearly is the front-runner for the GOP nomination. Unless another candidate emerges, the path to the GOP nomination should be Romney’s to lose.

These results are based on a June 8-11 USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted on the eve of a candidate debate in New Hampshire that will be the first to include some of the better-known candidates.

Romney appears to have gotten a boost in recent weeks after the official announcement of his candidacy. Gallup’s prior update of May 20-24 came just after former co-leaders Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announced they were not candidates for the nomination; that poll showed Romney and Palin in a virtual tie. Since then, Romney’s support has increased and Palin’s has been flat, leaving Romney with an eight-percentage-point advantage.

That is the largest numerical lead Gallup has measured for any candidate since it first began measuring nomination preferences in September. In that initial September poll, Romney held a seven-point advantage over the field of candidates. Romney or Huckabee held slim margins of no more than four points in subsequent polls.

No candidate besides Romney has shown a significant increase in support since the May update, though Rick Santorum, who also recently announced his official candidacy, saw his support rise from 2% to 6%. Meanwhile, support for Newt Gingrich, whose campaign has been off to a rocky start since his official announcement last month, is now at 5%, a slight decline since May. The high point for Gingrich was 13% in November.

And, Romney’s lead over the field expands with Sarah Palin out of the field.

Let’s look at the graph:

Note with Sarah Palin gone, Michele Bachmann does not rise substantially in the polls with Palin voters being redistributed throughout the field. However, Bachmann will stick in Iowa and be able to gain momentum there. Whereas, this is a national poll.

What are the demographics of the GOP voters?

The graph:

So, what does this all mean?

Mitt Romney is the early front-runner and the only challenger who is close in the polls is Sarah Palin, who has not decided whether to run or not. A number of candidates remain in the field but their chances of winning the nomination appear remote.

Perhaps tonight’s GOP Presidential debate will deliver some momentum to the third and fourth tier candidates. But, I doubt it. This race is Romney’s to win or lose.

Romney may be emerging as a front-runner in a GOP race that has been characterized to date by its lack of a leading candidate. Republican nomination contests usually have a clear front-runner, and that candidate often goes on to win. But that did not hold true in the last presidential election cycle, when Rudy Giuliani led in national preference polls throughout 2007 but performed poorly in the actual nominating contests in 2008. Additionally, even if Romney were to expand his lead into the double digits in the coming months, he still would rate as one of the weakest Republican front-runners in recent GOP nominating history.

Romney remains behind lesser-known candidates Cain and Bachmann in Gallup’s measure of positive intensity toward candidates, though his score seems to be on the rise.

Whether Romney is actually assuming the mantle of the front-runner will be clear in future polls. The current results could be a short-term bounce due to increased attention paid to his campaign after his official entry into the race, or could indicate a more lasting shift in preferences that has put him in the top position in the GOP field.

President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Palin 22% Romney 20% Cain 7% Paul 7%

Posted Posted in Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Ron Paul, Sarah Palin

According to the latest Ipsos/Reuters Poll.

  • GOP Primary Election:
  • Sarah Palin – 22%
  • Mitt Romney – 20%
  • Herman Cain – 7%
  • Ron Paul – 7%

General Election:

Obama leads all potential Republican challengers by double-digit margins, the poll showed. He is ahead of his closest Republican rival, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, by 13 percentage points — 51 percent to 38 percent.

In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, the other Republican contenders fared even worse than Romney’s 13-point gap in a match-up with Obama. Palin trailed Obama by 23 points and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty was behind by 19 points.

State of the Country:

  • 35% Right Direction Vs. 60% Wrong Track

This is the first poll I have seen with Sarah Palin leading the pack. But, if nominated, she trails President Obama by a whopping 23 points.

The poll, conducted Friday through Monday, surveyed 1,132 adults nationwide by telephone, including 948 registered voters. The margin of error is 3 percentage points.