Rasmussen Reports: 2008 Republican Presidential Primary

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has to share his spot atop the field of Republican Presidential hopefuls this week. The newest face in the race, former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, is now tied with Giuliani. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds each man earning support from 24% of likely Republican Primary voters. A week ago, Giuliani had a six percentage point lead over Thompson, 23% to 17%.

It is not unusual for a candidate to gain ground in the polls when they first announce their intentions. However, Thompson’s rise has been meteoric. It remains to be seen whether the reality of his candidacy can measure up to its allure as an alternative for those dissatisfied with the other candidates in the field. At the moment, 59% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of their newest candidate. Just 14% hold an unfavorable opinion of Thompson while 27% are not sure.

The GOP NUTS:

Rudy edges down a notch and Fred Thompson gets a “BUMP” up from his announcement. The REAL story is the free fall of McCain and Romney.

Flap predicted that when Thompson bumepd up after committing to the Presidential race that it would put a stake in the heart of Romney. This is what has happened.

Apparently, McCain committed political suicide earlier with his dumbass support of the Senate “AMNESTY” illegal alien bill.

So, is this now a two man race?

Probably not

Romney has the money to stay through Florida and/or Super Duper Tuesday.  Both his campaign should be on “death watch.”
Three candidates move into the 2008 elections. McCain will withdraw after Labor Day.

Stay tuned……

The Real Clear Politics Poll averages:

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The Rudy Giuliani Files

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Republican presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani speaks Tuesday, June 12, 2007, at the Old Town Hall in Bedford, N.H.

GIULIANI’S TWELVE COMMITMENTS

1. I will keep America on offense in the Terrorists’ War on Us.

2. I will end illegal immigration, secure our borders, and identify every non-citizen in our nation.

3. I will restore fiscal discipline and cut wasteful Washington spending.

4. I will cut taxes and reform the tax code.

5. I will impose accountability on Washington.

6. I will lead America towards energy independence.

7. I will give Americans more control over, and access to, healthcare with affordable and portable free-market solutions.

8. I will increase adoptions, decrease abortions, and protect the quality of life for our children.

9. I will reform the legal system and appoint strict constructionist judges.

10. I will ensure that every community in America is prepared for terrorist attacks and natural disasters.

11. I will provide access to a quality education to every child in America by giving real school choice to parents.

12. I will expand America’s involvement in the global economy and strengthen our reputation around the world.

********

Like with Newt Gingrich’s et. al’s Contract with America.

This is what you get with candidate Giuliani. This is what America needs in a President.

Any questions?

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Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy’s Houston Baptist Speech

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Reaffirms Abortion Rights

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Abortion Rights and February 5 States Are Strategery for Rudy

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Can Rudy Overcome Pro-Choice Abortion Stand?

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The May 3rd GOP Presidential Debate – Abortion and Iraq?

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy the Front-Runner

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Obama, Edwards Prove Giuliani Right

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy on Offense and Democrats Don’t Like It

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy – “America Will Be Safer with a Republican President” The Democrat Response

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy – “America Will Be Safer with a Republican President”

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Conservative Christians Favor Giuliani

The Rudy Giuliani Files

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THE TIMES/BLOOMBERG POLL

Republicans antsy for a conservative standard-bearer in the presidential race have begun to rally behind Fred Thompson, propelling the former Tennessee senator to within hailing distance of the lead for the party’s nomination, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll has found.

Former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani holds first place in the survey, with support from 27% of the Republicans and independents who said they plan to vote in the party’s 2008 primaries.

But Thompson, an actor who played a prosecutor on NBC’s “Law & Order,” runs just behind, with 21%. Indications are he will join the race within the next month.

The two other major GOP contenders, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, fall well short of the leaders and are in a battle for third place. McCain was backed by 12% of those polled, Romney by 10%. The rest of the crowded field is mired in single digits.

The GOP Nuts:

Rudy – 27%

Thompson – 21%

McCain – 12%

Romney – 10%

Rudy continues to lead while McCain and Romney both fade.

The main question is:

Will California be a two candidate race? Rudy and Fred Thompson

Probably

With McCain fading in national polls as well as in Iowa and New Hampshire, it is doubtful that he will be around after the summer. Romney continues to poll poorly in California and other major Super Tuesday states.

It is also doubtful that Romney will drop out with vigorous fundraising and his leads in New Hampshire and Iowa polling.

So, a three way race going into the Fall.

Stay tuned…….

Update:

General Election Match-ups:

Clinton 41%, McCain 45%
Clinton 41%, Romney 43%
Clinton 39%, Giuliani 49%
Edwards 40%, McCain 45%
Edwards 46%, Romney 32%
Edwards 46%, Giuliani 43%
Obama 47%, McCain 35%
Obama 50%, Romney 34%
Obama 46%, Giuliani 41%

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The Rudy Giuliani Files

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AP Poll: Thompson Shakes Up GOP Race

The GOP NUTS:

The Poll is here.

Fred Thompson’s expected entry into the tight Republican presidential race is drawing crucial strength from conservatives and older men, vaulting him into the thick of the nomination fight, an Associated Press-Ipsos poll says.

n a nod to Giuliani’s response to the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, one- half of his supporters cite his leadership qualities, far more than any other candidate. McCain’s supporters like his experience, while Romney’s note his views generally.

Giuliani has lost some support since March—a period during which his abortion rights views have been a focus—notably from conservatives, white evangelicals, older voters and women.

Giuliani is still supported by one in four conservatives, slightly more than those backing McCain, Thompson or Romney.

Overall support for McCain and Romney has stayed about even.

Thompson also has shown strong support among older voters, especially men. Three in 10 male Republicans over age 44 said they would pick him.
While that is about the same as with Giuliani, Thompson seems to have gained support from that group at the expense of Giuliani and McCain.

And, with every thing said and done, Rudy continues to be the double digit leader.

The difference:

Mitt Romney is now in fourth place rather than third.

Stay tuned……

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The Rudy Giuliani Files

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Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich speaks at the Richard Nixon Library in Yorba Linda, California May 24, 2007. Gingrich warned that the GOP will lose the White House and Congress in 2008 if the nominee is perceived as a continuation of the Bush presidency.

Gingrich Warns of GOP Losses in 2008

Republican Newt Gingrich, in a jab at President Bush, warned on Friday that the GOP will lose the White House and Congress in 2008 if the nominee is perceived as a continuation of the Bush presidency.

Addressing a conservative organization, the former House Speaker never mentioned the president by name, but his political point was clear.

“If the Republicans run a stand-pat presidential candidate who ends up being on defense for all of September and October and who is seen by the country as representing four more years, the fact is that Republicans are not going to” win, Gingrich told the American Enterprise Institute.

Gingrich, a former Georgia congressman, is considering a White House run, with an announcement likely in the fall.

He has roundly criticized the Bush administration in recent interviews, describing the White House as dysfunctional and saying the president has driven the party into collapse. While he refrained from direct criticism Friday, he cited failures in Iraq, border security and the response to Hurricane Katrina as signs of a broken government.

Newt Gingrich is absolutely correct. President Bush has managed his administration horribly and will cost the GOP more seats in Congress and the White House if he does not realize Iraq War gains and drop his senseless pursuit of illegal immigration AMNESTY.

But, Gingrich was more upbeat regarding Mayor Rudy Giuliani:

He praised Rudy Giuliani’s handling of crime as New York City mayor, saying that experience and his response to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks have propelled his candidacy. Gingrich contended that Giuliani’s image on national security would offset his more liberal positions on social issues.

“In a world where a nuclear weapon could eliminate an American city in seconds, he has a very strong case,” said Gingrich. “He has certainly done better so far than people would guess.”

Stay tuned…….

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The Rudy Giuliani Files

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Quinnipiac University Poll: Giuliani Still Leads All Democrats

The GOP NUTS:

Rudy – 31% (38%, April 26)

McCain – 10% (15%)

Thompson – 14%

Romney – 8%

Gingrich – 7%

Rudy has slipped and McCain has collapsed in Florida.

THE QUESTION:

Today’s breakdown of early primary/caucus states has Romney leading Iowa and New Hampshire; McCain leading South Carolina and Rudy winning in Florida.

But, the Fred Thompson candidacy continues to cloud the race.

Stay tuned…….

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The Rudy Giuliani Files

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Republican presidential hopeful former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani discusses small business issues with local Republicans Friday, May 4, 2007, in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

In a blogger conference call, Rudy Giuliani Campaign Manager Mike Duhaime announced that Rudy Giuliani will not be participating in the Ames Iowa Straw Poll.

More later….

Update:

This is NOT a surprise, especially with Fred Thompson now in the race. In fact, the pressure will be on Fred Thompson to go head to head with the well financed and better organized Romney for the Iowa Straw Poll momentum.

Flap’s bet is that Thompson will decline. Thompson arriving late to the campaign (and with no campaign bankroll) unlikely will divert the $ millions to a non-binding straw poll in August.

This is a smart move by the Giuliani campaign. Rudy was NEVER going to compete in Iowa, although Mike Duhaime and Jim Nussle said in today’s blogger conference call that they are. The polls and demographics do not presently point to a win for the Mayor.

So why waste your resources that could be better spent in Florida, Illinios and California – all expensive media markets? By the way, California has five times the GOP delegates as Iowa.

Will Mitt Romney be the only top tier candidate competing in August?

Possibly……

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The Rudy Giuliani Files

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Rich Lowry @ National Review: Rudy Wins

If any pro-choicer can win the Republican presidential nomination, it’s Rudy Giuliani. His abortion answer was bad, but what people will remember is his joking around about getting struck down by lightening during it. Otherwise, he was quick, commanding, authoritative-sounding—altogether the Big Man on stage, projecting the image of the kind of guy you can trust during a time of war. He kept taking digs at Washington, burnishing his outsider credentials, and was frank and feisty in taking it to the enemy both metaphorical (the Dems, the media) and real (Islamic terrorism). For all the invocations of Reagan during these forums, Rudy’s strength and emphasis on freedom is probably what is going to strike most voters as really Reaganesque. (All this said, I wish he cared to try to reach an accommodation with pro-lifers that would make his candidacy even stronger).

Agreed.

Hizzoner had a “COMMANDING PRESENCE” in tonight’s debate. He was extremely Presidential and someone you can trust in a time of war.

Rudy was RIGHT on the issues from the Scooter Libby sentencing debacle to calling the Democrats out on “socialized medicine.”

So, what are others saying?

New York Sun’s Ryan Sager: “Big Giuliani Win.”

National Review’s Kathryn Jean Lopez: “Rudy Won.”

National Review’s Kate O’Beirne: “Rudy Finishes Strong.”

NBC News’ Chuck Todd: “Rudy Giuliani was solid …”

Power Line Blog’s John Hinderaker: “Rudy Giuliani … broke away from the pack tonight …”

CBN’s David Brody: “On immigration, it’s a very complicated issue but Giuliani was able to boil it down to basically say ‘throw the bad people out’ and then was able to weave his idea for national ID cards into the answer.”

Captains Quarters: Post Debate Analysis: Giuliani Keeps The Crown For Now

Giuliani performed the best. He took advantage of a recurring technical glitch to demonstrate his sense of humor, and he gave great answers on national-security questions. He attacked Hillary Clinton — again — and was the only one on stage looking to move the debate to the Democrats — again. He stung CNN, too, by turning around a Blitzer hypothetical about what he’d do if Petraeus reported no progress in September by asking Blitzer whether he’d bother reporting progress if it was being made.

Update:

Hugh Hewitt: Giuliani “Looked And Sounded Great Tonight” And Would Be A “Formidable” Candidate

National Review’s Jim Geraghty: “Rudy … has been en fuego, as they say on Sportscenter.”

Townhall’s Mary Katharine Ham: “From his first answer on Iraq, in which he notably outdid Romney who answered the same question right before him, Rudy seemed on point tonight.”

National Review’s Michael Graham: “Rudy does it in one sentence: ‘It’s unimaginable that you’d leave Saddam in power while fighting a war on terror.’ That’s the argument the GOP should embrace, seize and use …”

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The Rudy Giuliani Files

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