Was it a mistake to invade Iraq knowing everything you know now?

NO…….

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USA TODAY/Gallup Poll results

The GOP NUTS:

This is certainly a different result from this morning’s Rasmussen Poll that polled an earlier time period.

Here are the Real Clear Politics Poll Averages:

In the Gallup Poll, Rudy has stabilized along with Fred Thompson while Mitt Romney has climbed upward at John McCain’s expense.

Rudy continues to be the frontrunner with a double digit LEAD.

In a head to head match-up Rudy leads McCain 56%-38% with 6% undecided.

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Rasmussen Reports: 2008 Republican Presidential Primary

GOP Nomination: Rudy Down, Thompson in Second, McCain Falls to Fourth

With former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson taking his first formal steps towards a Presidential run and the immigration debate creating challenges for Arizona Senator John McCain, the race for the Republican Presidential nomination has an entirely different look this week.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) remains on top, but his support has slipped to 23%. That’s down two points from a week ago and is his lowest level of support all year. Earlier, Giuliani had consistently enjoyed support in the mid-30s. That was before Thompson’s name was added to the mix and before Giuliani stumbled on the abortion issue in the first GOP debate of the season.

Thompson, who just formed an exploratory committee and is the newest face in the race, immediately moved into second place. With 17% support, he is within six points of the frontrunner. That’s closer than anybody has been to Giuliani in 20 consecutive weekly polls. Thompson is also competitive in a variety of general election match-ups with potential Democratic nominees.

The GOP NUTS:

Not a good week for Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and especially John McCain. Will Fred Thompson’s announcement be an opening “BUMP” or the beginning of an electoral trend?

Time will tell.

But, conventional wisdom has the race coalescing around three candidates with McCain, the early frontrunner, odd man OUT. Where will his supporters go?

Since Rudy and Romney have at least a $30-$40 million lead in fundraising will Thompson be able to force either of these candidates out of the race before February 5, 2008?

Doubtful

And who will show at the Ames Straw Poll – the earliest electoral test of a Presidential candidacy?

Probably only Romney and the second, third tier candidates. With Rudy and Thompson close in the polls with Romney third, why give Romney an opening which he can buy with funds and organization. The organization in Iowa which Rudy nor Thompson now do NOT possess and would be almost impossible to quickly fund.

Of course, McCain could withdraw and give his blessing and Iowa organization to Thompson.

Possible

Stay tuned…..

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Republican presidential candidate hopeful Rudy Giuliani, right, walks with Ray Huff, principal of Montour Area High School, after visiting the memorial next to the high school in Montoursville, Pa., Sunday evening, June 3, 2007 which is dedicated to the passengers who were killed in the TWA flight 800 crash off of the cost of Long Island, NY. Giuliani was at the school to address the graduating seniors at an invitation-only program.

Giuliani returns to Pa. high school that lost students in crash

Rudy Giuliani returned to Montoursville High School tonight, more than a decade after 16 students and five chaperones died aboard T-W-A Flight 800 when it crashed off the Long Island Coast in July 1996.

The Republican presidential candidate was New York’s mayor then. He says the tight-knit community has a special place in his heart.

Giuliani says he’ll never forget meeting the families of Flight 800 and that watching those families helped him deal with the aftermath of the 2001 terrorist attack

As Presidential Rudy stays above the illegal immigration dust-up between McCain and Romney.

Flap can only surmise what tomorrow’s New Hampshire GOP debate will bring.

Republican presidential candidate hopeful Rudy Giuliani, right, stands with Montoursville mayor, John Dorin, center, and Pat Oxford, Giuliani�s campaign chairman, Sunday evening, June 3, 2007, while looking at the memorial, located next to the Montoursville Area High School in Montoursville, Pa., to the passengers who were killed in the TWA Flight 800 crash.

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ABC/Washington Post Poll:

The WaPO Analysis:

Former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani remains the leader in the GOP race, but the poll suggests that the surge in support he received after declaring his candidacy has stalled and that his backing of abortion rights and gay rights has caused more Republicans to turn away from him.

Sen. John McCain of Arizona runs second in the GOP race, but the poll results raise questions about his candidacy. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who has spent millions on television ads already this year, has in some ways become an attractive alternative over the past few months, and former senator Fred D. Thompson of Tennessee shows the potential to quickly make the GOP contest a four-way battle.

Frankly, after looking at the numbers Flap has a hard time understanding the WaPO’s thinking.

Rudy continues to lead in double digits and in many favorable characteristics. So, he is not leading as much? Before Thompson entered the race and Romney has run television commercials.

And these differences are STATISTICALLY significant?

Poor analysis from WaPO.

Rudy continues to be the frontrunner.

Let’s look at the latest Real Clear Politics poll averages:

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According to the Hotline, a new Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion poll of GOP registered voters nationwide – the GOP NUTS:

• Rudy – 28%
• Thompson – 19%
• Romney – 17%
• McCain – 16%

What does it mean?

Rudy continues with a comfortable almost double digit lead.

Fred thompson has catapulted into second place over McCain and Romney

McCain’s campaign is on “DEATH WATCH”

How will this trend transfer to the individual states?

Stay tuned ……..

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Clinton, Giuliani lead in S.C., poll says

Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani lead the races for the 2008 S.C. Democratic and Republican primaries, according to a new poll from Winthrop University and ETV.

The poll also showed Giuliani has more reason for concern. His lead over U.S. Sen. John McCainc of Arizona – 18.6 percent to 14.4 percent – is within the poll’s margin of error.

And Giuliani, whether he’s in first or behind McCain – uncertain given the margin of error – remains in shouting distance of victory in a state where many Republican voters would fall opposite him on social issues.

The GOP NUTS:

And the ISSUES:

A good showing for the Mayor. But, with the McCain campaign on ‘life support” because of the immigration issue, the laying off of McCain staffers in South Carolina and with Fred Thompson’s candidacy what will the polls in South Carolina show in a few weeks?

Stay tuned….

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The latest Quinnipiac Pennsylvania Poll is out with Mayor Rudy Giuliani beating both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in general election head to head match-ups.

The General Election Nuts:

Rudy – 47%

Hillary – 43 %

Rudy – 45%

Obama – 40%

The GOP Primary NUTS:

Rudy – 28%

McCain – 11%

Thompson – 10%

Romney – 9%

Gingrich – 8%

Favorability:

• 50 – 44 percent for Clinton;
• 53 – 28 percent for Giuliani
• 52 – 40 percent for Gore;
• 44 – 28 percent for McCain;
• 44 – 19 percent for Obama;
• 45 – 26 percent for Edwards;
• 63 percent haven’t heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion;
• For Romney, 62 percent haven’t heard enough to form an opinion.

The Mayor is doing extremely well in Pennyslvania and certainly will put the state in play when he receives the GOP nomination.

Rudy mentioned and played the ELECTABILITY CARD yesterday in California.

Hizzoner is RIGHT.

Update:

Giuliani will speak at the Montoursville High, Pennsylvania commencement

Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani, who consoled Montoursville High students amid tragedy a decade earlier, will give the school’s commencement address Sunday, the school said.

Giuliani wrote a to those in the Class of 1997’s baccalaureate program after 16 students and five chaperones en route to Paris were killed in the crash of TWA Flight 800 on July 17, 1996.

“There was a strong relationship between New York City and Montoursville during that time,” Montoursville Superintendent Dr. Albert J. Cunningham said. “The feelings still run deep.”

Giuliani traveled to Montoursville for an Aug. 17, 1996, memorial service for the Flight 800 victims, and brought the Combined Pipe and Drum Band and New York City Boys’ Choir.

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Republican presidential hopeful and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (center) laughs with diners at a restaurant in Burlingame on Wednesday, May 30, 2007.

San Francisco Chronicle: Giuliani pushes appeal to California moderates

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, in Burlingame today on a campaign swing, chastised Democratic presidential hopefuls Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama as tax-raising liberals who would cripple the state’s economy while he painted himself as the only Republican candidate who is moderate enough to win state like California in November 2008.

The comments to reporters outside Burlingame’s Broadway Grill highlighted the political schizophrenia Giuliani faces as he tries to appeal to the conservative Republicans he needs to win the GOP nomination and the moderate independent, Democratic and GOP voters he must attract to have a chance to take the presidency in the general election.

The pro-choice Giuliani, who aggressively backed tougher firearm regulations in New York City, argued that he is “the one Republican candidate who has a legitimate chance to win California” — a state dominated by Democrats — in the presidential election.

Giuliani said the Republican Party must nominate a candidate who has a legitimate chance of winning in such Democratic strongholds as Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, California, Oregon and Washington if it intends to keep the White House in 2008 and he’s the only one who fills that bill.

But the former mayor also gave the party’s conservative wing a bow when he slammed Clinton, a New York senator, and Obama, a senator from Illinois, as free-spending backers of big government “who don’t seem to really understand how the private economy works.”

Rudy has it RIGHT.

And his February 5 strategy will win him the GOP nomination. Then, the Democrat blue states of Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Oregon, Washington and California will ALL be in play. With any other GOP nominee, this will NOT be the case.

Rudy plays the ELECTABILITY CARD.

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Former New York City Mayor and Republican Presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani hearing that Fred Thompson will enter the Presidential race around the 4th of July.

Fred’s In, Who’s Hurt?

Chris has the analysis absolutely RIGHT.

The biggest LOSER is Romney.

Then, McCain

The WINNER: Rudy

Folks, you are looking at the 2008 GOP ticket: Giuliani-Thompson.

By the way, the Mayor above is laughing at a joke with a California voter in Burlingame earlier today.

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