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President 2012 Video: Sarah Palin Organizer Confident She Will Run?
“Iowa Passion” Sarah Palin at the Iowa State Fair last weekNobody really knows what Sarah Palin will do but there is a lot of speculation and buzz today.
Sarah Palin’s Sept. 3 event has been relocated from Waukee to Indianola to better accommodate a larger crowd, organizers said.
Palin is the keynote speaker at the Tea Party of America’s “Restoring America” event, which is free and open to the public.
The event was originally scheduled at Hawkeye Antique Acres in Waukee. The event is now scheduled from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. at the National Balloon Classic field, east of Indianola.
There has been speculation that Palin, a former governor of Alaska and 2008 Republican vice presidential candidate, could use the event as an opportunity to announce whether she plans to run for president in 2012.
“I don’t know if she’s going to announce or not,” said Charlie Gruschow, co-founder of Tea Party of America. “But whether or not she announces, we’re going to have a huge event.”
I think she will run.
With Rick Perry in the race, a multi-candidate field with two other conservatives and one moderate (Mitt Romney) is a “perfect” storm for her.
But, I. also, think that Rudy Giuliani may then run or endorse Rick Perry and tie up the delegates in Florida, East and Far West.
The next few weeks will prove to be a very interesting time.
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President 2012 GOP California Poll Watch: Romney 22% Vs. Perry 15% Vs. Palin 10% Vs. Bachmann 8.5%
According to the latest Probolsky Research Poll.
An interesting poll with a small sample size, includes Sarah Palin and does NOT include Rudy Giuliani who is very popular in California.So, I say take it as – meh……
It is likely, but NOT highly likely that with a crowded GOP field, the California Presidential Primary Election which will be held in June 2012 will actually matter. Most candidates in the GOP field and certainly the party would like the nomination contest to be over long before then.
Why?
California is a very large state and the media markets extremely expensive. Plus, California is going for Obama no matter what and any cross-over campaigning for the general election will not matter.
Also, remember, the California Primary has historically been “winner take all” and having the election so late will allow the party to set the rules in this manner
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Perry 29% Vs. Romney 18% Vs. Bachmann 13%
According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.
Texas Governor Rick Perry, the new face in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, has jumped to a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann with the other announced candidates trailing even further behind.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters, taken Monday night, finds Perry with 29% support. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who ran unsuccessfully for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008, earns 18% of the vote, while Bachmann, the Minnesota congresswoman who won the high-profile Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on Saturday, picks up 13%.
Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who was a close second to Bachmann on Saturday, has the support of nine percent (9%) of Likely Primary Voters, followed by Georgia businessman Herman Cain at six percent (6%) and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with five percent (5%). Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, and ex-Utah Governor Jon Huntsman each get one percent (1%) support, while Michigan Congressman Thaddeus McCotter comes in statistically at zero.
Sixteen percent (16%) of primary voters remain undecided.
An Uh Oh moment for the presumed front-runner Mitt Romney.
Is there any wonder why Karl Rove said last night that he exepcted others to enter the race? In fact, rumors have been plentiful today that Representative Paul Ryan is now considering the race.
Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan is strongly considering a run for president. Ryan, who has been quietly meeting with political strategists to discuss a bid over the past three months, is on vacation in Colorado discussing a prospective run with his family. Ryan’s concerns about the effects of a presidential campaign – and perhaps a presidency – on his family have been his primary focus as he thinks through his political future.
Then, there continues to be the real wild card candidate, Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani who likely would run, if Palin does.
Stay tuned…….
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President 2012: Why Rudy Giuliani Continues to Consider a Presidential Race
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been quietly but steadily traveling to New Hampshire discussing his long shot Presidential ambitions. But, is this a Quixotic attempt to stay relevant or is there something more?Looking at the GOP nomination calendar, it may indeed be something more.
Now, Texas Governor Rick Perry and Rudy are friends. Perry endorsed Rudy’s Presidential race in 2008 and I do not know how this calculus works. Nor, do I know whether Sarah Palin will actually enter the Presidential arena.
But, let us assume that Sarah Palin runs and Rudy enters the race as a moderate alternative to Sarah and Michele Bachmann.
Can Rudy Giuliani win the nomination? Or, at least have a shot?
The short answer is: Rudy Giuliani can either win or determine who the 2012 Presidential nominee will be.
Let’s look at the GOP primary nomination calendar.
Here are the early states.There are two things you really need to pay attention to here. First, note the states with asterisks. The RNC has decided to strip half of the delegates from any state that holds a primary or caucus before March 1, other than Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada. Some states are considering pushing their primaries back, although these also tend to be the more moderate states, like Wisconsin and New Jersey. The more conservative states seem to be hanging tough, for now. In other words, you could end up with some of the more conservative states in the GOP electorate losing clout at the convention.
Please note the states of New Hampshire, Florida and New Jersey in the early state category where Rudy Giuliani will definitely win some delegates (remember these races are proportional contests – not winner take all).
I can see a scenario where the more conservative candidates of Perry, Bachmann, and Palin split the conservative wing of the party and Giuliani beats or remains a close second to Mitt Romney after the early contests.
Next, come the next tier of elections in March:
Here there are sufficient large and moderate GOP states to provide delegates to a Giuliani candidacy – Illinois, Michigan, Massachusetts and Vermont. Remember again, that the Republican National Committee has ruled that states who conduct primaries prior to April 1 must allocate their delegates proportionately.
Again, a Giuliani candidacy can remain credible with maybe not the plurality of delegates, but a sufficient amount leading into the post-April primaries:
Note that these post-April primary contests are considerably more moderate on political orientation and include New York and California. These are both states that Giuliani could win all of the delegates since they might become winner take all contests. Rudy would also do well in the other Eastern and Far West states, including Oregon, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Washington.
Giuliani could either gather a plurality of delegates by the end of the primary season and unite with a conservative candidate (namely Rick Perry, his friend) as his Vice President selection and go into the Florida GOP Convention with a majority of delegates.
Or, Rudy could broker his delegates to the “will” of the convention and accept the Vice Presidency.
Sean Trende over at Real Clear Politics begins his piece with the meme of how well Romney will do against Rick Perry.I think Sean has it a little wrong.
He has just made the case for a Rudy Giuliani candidacy.
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President 2012: Karl Rove Expects Sarah Palin, Chris Christie and/or Paul Ryan to Enter Presidential Race?
GOP Political operative Karl Rove on Fox News Channel last nightTexas Governor is the candidate of the hour, but Karl Rove makes the case that more may enter the Presidential arena.
ROVE: We’ve got a good field. I don’t think that’s the end, though, of the field. I think we’re likely to see several other candidates think seriously about getting in, and frankly, they have time to do so.
November 22 is the first deadline to file papers to get on a ballot — that’s the last day somebody could get in without starting to lose their place in some of the early primaries or caucuses.
I suspect we’re likely to see an early September, late August — people taking it seriously.
SEAN HANNITY: All right, who are these people you suspect might get in?
ROVE: I think Palin.
HANNITY: You do think Palin?
ROVE: Well, I think she’s going to look seriously at it. I don’t know if any of these are going to actually get in, but I think that the nature of the field, and the fact that we’ve now got three candidates when we could have had four, five, or six major candidates is going to lead people to say “Well, I could be in that contest.”
Palin has got a pretty active schedule in early September. I think Chris Christie and Paul Ryan are going to look at it again, and I wouldn’t be surprised if all three of them gave serious consideration to it….
HANNITY: I’ve talked to Governor Christie a lot and he says “No way”.
I was more convinced Gov. Palin after I saw her and interviewed her Friday night at the Iowa state fair that she might get in now.
Paul Ryan, I don’t think has given any indication. What makes you think those two will get in — meaning Ryan and Christie.
ROVE: Well, two things. There was an event in New York — [co-founder of Home Depot] Ken Langone pulled together some big moneyraisers and met with Christie and said “you need to think seriously about this.”
And it’s not just the meeting. What happened afterwards — from what I picked up around the country — I talked to a number of people who had picked up the phone and called Christie to tell him they thought that he ought to run. These are Republican activists, Republican donors, movers and shakers, activists around the country.
And the same on Paul Ryan, and I’m starting to pick up some sort of vibrations that these kinds of conversations are causing Christie and Ryan to tell the people who are calling them “Well, you know what, I owe it to you. I think I will take a look at it.”
Whether or not that happens or not, I don’t know, but I’m just picking that up that people have some sense, some belief that these two guys are going to take a look at it.
I agree that Sarah Palin is a wild card in the race fro 2012 and should Sarah enter the race, the conservative field would be scattered all over the map. I, also, predict that should Palin run, so would Rudy Giuliani which would really divide the GOP Presidential delegate distribution.
I can foresee a scenario where the GOP nomination comes down to the California GOP primary election in June (likely, a winner take all election) or a “brokered” convention – much like Ford Vs. Reagan in 1976.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Rick Perry is Leading in the South While Mitt Romney Leads in the West
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the favorite among southern Republicans when they are asked to say who they are most likely to support for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination, with a 22% to 13% advantage over Sarah Palin in that region. Mitt Romney has a similar edge, 24% to 12%, over Michele Bachmann in the West. Romney and Rudy Giuliani essentially tie for first in the East, with Romney holding a slight advantage among midwestern Republicans.
These results are based on a July 20-24 Gallup poll that shows Romney (17%) and Perry (15%) in a statistical tie as the preferred nominee among Republicans nationwide. However, Romney has a more significant lead among the more limited set of announced GOP candidates, which excludes Perry, Palin, and Giuliani.
This is a good poll for Rick Perry who has NOT even anounced an official candidacy. When he does in late August he will zoom past Michele Bachmann into second place.
With regards to Sarah Palin, she remains a “wild card” in this race. I have written for weeks now that should she run, then Rudy Giuliani would run. Rudy figures his strength in the East and somewhat in California might propel him to a place at the table at a “brokered” GOP Convention.
But, remember Rick Perry and Rudy are friends. Perry endorsed Rudy in 2008 and it would not be surprising that should Palin not decide to run, that Rudy would endorse Perry which would swing support to him in the East and West.
So, we wait for a few weeks and see what Sarah Palin announces at a Tea Party rally in Iowa on September 3rd.
Given Romney’s positioning among southern Republicans, a candidate like Perry could pose the most significant threat to him. One key would be whether Perry, as he became better known (currently 56% of Republicans are familiar with him), would expand his appeal in other regions, or if his core support would remain limited to the South. If the latter, Romney may still be able to hold onto his status as the front-runner even if his support in the South drops. If the former, Perry could emerge as the new GOP front-runner should he become an official candidate.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 17% Vs. Perry 15% Vs. Palin 12% Vs. Giuliani 11% Vs. Bachmann 11%
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Mitt Romney is the leader for the GOP nomination among the current field of official candidates, supported by 27% of Republicans, compared with 18% for Michele Bachmann. However, Rick Perry would essentially tie Romney, with Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani close behind, in a scenario in which all three of these undecided candidates entered the race.
The results are based on a July 20-24 Gallup poll. Eight of the 11 Republicans included in the poll have announced their official candidacies. Giuliani, Palin, and Perry are not official candidates but are still actively considering becoming candidates even though the first nominating contests are less than seven months away. Any of the three would start from a relatively strong national position, with all registering at least double-digit support in the poll.
Nothing really has changed on this national poll. We continue to have an unsettled GOP field with Sarah Palin playing the “Wild Card.”
Texas Governor looks like the most likely unannounced candidate actually throwing his hat in the ring. Sarah and Rudy – well, not so much.
But, who knows?
I continue to maintain that if Sarah Palin runs, then so will Rudy Giuliani. If she doesn’t, then Rudy supports Rick Perry and Bachmann fades as the anti-Romney candidate.
Romney is the nominal front-runner for the Republican nomination, though his status is weaker now than a month ago and could be weakened further by the entry of a candidate like Perry, Palin, or Giuliani. Still, none of those potential candidates’ support exceeds Romney’s at the moment.
The time for any other candidates to enter the race is running short, though there is a precedent for candidates jumping in after Labor Day, as in 2003 (Democrat Wesley Clark) and 2007 (Republican Fred Thompson), though neither candidate fared well in the early primaries and caucuses.
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Rudy Giuliani and Rick Perry Would Enter Race as Credible Candidates
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani would enter as credible players in the 2012 GOP presidential race, should they decide to run. Perry is recognized by 55% of Republicans and has a Positive Intensity Score of 21, while Giuliani is recognized by 86% and has a Positive Intensity Score of 20. Both Positive Intensity Scores are among the highest of any candidate or potential candidate Gallup measures.
Neither Perry nor Giuliani has made an official announcement about running for president, although both have indicated that they are seriously considering it. Perry, governor of Texas since 2000, told an Iowa newspaper that he felt “called” to run. Giuliani, who was the front-runner for the GOP nomination through much of 2007 before losing out to John McCain, has traveled frequently to New Hampshire in recent weeks.
Despite intense media speculation about his presidential plans, far fewer Republicans recognize Perry (55%) than recognize Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, and Ron Paul. Perry, however, is already known by as many Republicans nationally as announced candidate Tim Pawlenty, and has higher name recognition than several other candidates who have been hard at work campaigning in recent weeks, including Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, and Jon Huntsman.
I doubt Rudy will enter the race unless Sarah Palin does and who knows about Sarah at this point. Rudy would rely on a split in the conservative vote to allow him the power to either win late primary contests in the East and Far West (where he is most popular) or broker the GOP convention.
But, remember that Texas Governor Rick Perry endorsed Rudy in 2008 and they continue to be good friends. It is likely that Rudy would defer a run for his friend, in order to thwart Mitt Romney, who Giuliani does not care so much about.
Of course, Rudy would be an immediate front-runner for the Vice Presidential spot with Perry. A Perry-Giuliani ticket would be very formidable against Obama-Biden.
In their inaugural appearance in Gallup’s weekly GOP candidate tracking, Perry and Giuliani have strongly positive images among Republicans nationwide, with Positive Intensity Scores in the top tier of all candidates and potential candidates Gallup measures. Both men generate slightly more intensely positive responses than Romney, and considerably more positive reactions than several other announced candidates who have been campaigning actively, including Pawlenty and Huntsman.
Perry does have relatively low name recognition among Republicans nationwide, roughly on par with where Bachmann was at the beginning of this year. Bachmann’s name recognition has increased significantly since then, however, in contrast to the situations of Pawlenty, Huntsman, Santorum, and Cain, who have not been able to move the needle on name recognition despite vigorous campaigning. It remains to be seen how quickly Perry’s name recognition will increase if he officially jumps into the race.
Giuliani does not have a name ID problem; he is as well-known as any candidate or potential candidate tested except for Palin. Giuliani also scores well on Gallup’s Positive Intensity measure, meaning that both he and Perry would be formidable factors in the race for the GOP nomination should they make the decision to run.
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President 2012: Texas Governor Rick Perry Buying Space for the Ames Iowa Straw Poll
Texas Gov. Rick Perry speaks at the Lincoln Dinner, an annual fundraising event for the New York GOP, Tuesday, June 14, 2011 in New York. Perry stirred speculation Tuesday that he would seek the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, championing his state’s economy before a packed GOP gathering in New York and telling a television interviewer he would engage in a “thought process” before deciding whether to join the field
Well, it is the Draft Perry folks since the Texas Governor has not officially made up his mind on whether to enter the Presidential race.An advocacy group that wants Texas Republican Rick Perry to run for president is seeking a presence at the Iowa straw poll this summer.
Americans for Rick Perry is taking steps to purchase a vendor spot, organizer Bob Schuman told The Des Moines Register today.
“We intend to have some kind of impact at the straw poll,” Schuman said. “We just don’t know what that is yet, but we’re working on it.”
The straw poll is a test of campaign strength and candidate popularity. It’s also a fundraiser for the Republican Party of Iowa.
Campaigns had one opportunity, on June 23, to buy a physical space on the straw poll campus, which guaranteed a right to address the audience from the main stage and locked in a line on the ballot.
Party rules don’t allow campaigns to buy spaces after that date.
Vendors and advocacy groups still can, but the purchase doesn’t mean a candidate will be allowed to speak or get a slot on the ballot.
Perry’s name has circulated as someone Republicans would like to see jump into the race.
Americans for Rick Perry, a 527 independent expenditure group that’s unaffiliated with Perry, is raising money on Perry’s behalf while he contemplates a presidential bid.
Schuman flew to Iowa Wednesday and has met with Jenifer Bowen of Iowa Right to Life, Bob Vander Plaats of the Family Leader, Steve Scheffler of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition and others, he said.
The Texas governor is keeping his options open and the Team Sarah Palin is keeping a close eye on Perry.
If Perry runs, then there will be a happy dance in Wasilla because Perry undoubtedly will draw from the same base as Michele Bachmann. Sarah could then enter the fray and capture a plurality in Iowa, lose in New Hampshire and then test Romney in South Carolina and Florida.
Just as an aside, should Sarah Palin run, I think Rudy Giuliani enters the race maybe almost guaranteeing a long, protracted primary season and/or a “brokered” GOP convention.
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama 46% Vs. Romney 42%
According to the lastest Marist Poll.
Looking to 2012, 43% of registered voters nationwide report they plan to vote against President Obama in 2012. This compares with 36% who say they definitely plan to support him. A notable 21% are unsure. Little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last reported it in April. At that time, 44% reported they planned to back someone else while 37% said they planned to vote for the president. 18%, at the time, were unsure.
Independents play a key role in Obama’s re-election bid. 43% say they would vote against Mr. Obama in 2012 while 29% are securely in his corner. Nearly three in ten independent voters — 28% — are unsure. The president has failed to make inroads with these allimportant voters. In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 47% of independents reported they would not support the president while 32% said they would cast their ballot for Mr. Obama. 21% were unsure.
While 70% of Democratic voters report they will unequivocally cast their ballot for the president and only 10% say they will vote against him, a notable one in five — 20% — are unsure. Not surprisingly, most Republicans — 85% — don’t plan on supporting the president while just 4% say they will. One in ten — 10% — are unsure.
The gereral election:
- 56% Obama Vs. 30% Palin
- 46% Obama Vs. 42% Romney
- 48% Obama Vs. 41% Giuliani
- 48% Obama Vs. 39% Perry
- 49% Obama Vs. 37% Bachmann
- 47% Obama Vs. 33% Pawlenty
GOP primary election:
- 19% Romney
- 13% Giuliani
- 13% Perry
- 11% Palin
- 8% Bachmann
- 5% Pawlenty
- 5% Paul
- 5% Cain
- 2% Gingrich
- 2% Huntsman
- 1% Santorum
Again, this is a national poll and I give them lettile credence since they do not take into account the GOP Primary calendar realities. But, this poll does show that Obama is vulnerable to the GOP front-runner Mitt Romney.