Conn, I think you just might have the answer: JOBS.
But then how do we explain California? From the time of the Gold Rush through 2000, the number of California residents not born in California grew every census. But, for some reason, that stopped in the 2000s. The number of Californians born in a different state actually fell by almost 1 million over the last decade. Why?
Thanks to native births and immigration, California’s population did grow. But Texas’ native birth rate and immigration flows were about the same. Yet over the same decade the number of Texans born out-of-state grew by almost a million. Why?
Matt is despereate to have you believe that Americans suddenly stopped wanting to live in California and started wanting to live in Texas. But why did this happen? Couldn’t have anyhting to do with the fact they were offered jobs in Texas could it?
Well, almost final.
The commission just voted out the new state lines on a 12-2 vote (with two Republicans voting no) and placed them on the Agenda for an official August 15th final vote. Until then feel free to whine, complain, cuss and gripe to commissioners about their failures. They can hear you, but they’re probably done listening.
On August 15th the only option is an up-or-down vote on the maps. You cannot have your city reunited, get your Assembly Member back. The plans are final and the only option now would be for the commission to vote the plans down and send them directly to the courts.
The game now transitions from the 14 members of the commission to the 67 members of Congress and the Legislature that have been drawn out of their seats, nested with other incumbents, or generally screwed over by the citizen process. A preliminary look at the data on the Redistricting Partners site will show some fun potential pairings and political drama. The site is now updated with maps (showing partisanship and incumbents), summary data for all districts in just a few pages, and extremely detailed datasheets from PDI for the Assembly, State Senate and Congressional districts.
Looking at the Congressional map, it is certain that my GOP Representative Elton Gallegy will either have to move (his home and electoral base in Simi Valley is out of the District), retire, or just run (there is no requirement that you must live in the Congressional District you represent), or run against GOP Rep. Buck McKeon who will represent Simi Valley. Gallegy has options.
However, the new CA-26 which is what presumably this Congressional District is called is less Republican and more Hispanic in nature.
Here are the details:
I will review the possible political scenarios next week after the final adoption of the maps.
I will also go over the California Assembly and State Senate Districts.
From my preliminary analysis of the statewide and Ventura County maps, they appear actually fair for the GOP. I, now, doubt that the California Republican Party will support a referendum on the Commission’s work.
But, then again, you never know and someone is bound to be really upset. But, this time it looks like the incumbent California Democrats.