Republican presidential candidates former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, left, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry speak during a Republican presidential debate Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2011, in Las VegasI, always wait a few hours before writing these post-mortems on the GOP Presidential debates. It is best to do so and let all of the spin sort itself out of the blogosphere and my e-mail box.
So, who won and who lost last night?
Mitt Romney – under personal attack from Rick Perry the Teflon candidate, while not unscathed, managed to repel Perry and remain the front-runner. Mitt has been crusing the past few debates and he proved he can mix it up with the best of them.
Barack Obama – the President actually looks sane and reasonable as compared to the haranguing group of GOP contenders. The GOP should enforce a poll requirement rule and limit who attends the next few debates and that goes from Rick Santorum to Ron Paul.
Herman Cain – his 9-9-9 tax was exposed as the double Valued Added Tax that it is. A tax which WOULD increase taxes on the majority of Americans. Rick Perry was correct when he said it won’t fly.
Michele Bachmann – she continued her decent into the third tier with an uninspiring performance, sticking to her talking points to win over religious conservatives in Iowa. Even if Bachmann wins in Iowa, she is done, just like Huckabee in 2008, but probably with less campaign funds. Romney hopes Michele has enough money to last until January 3 and the Iowa Caucuses. This may be a stretch.
Rick Perry – his Texas BULLYING style will not win him any friends in the GOP or with independent voters. Obama’s campaign team should want to run against this stereotypical boisterous “redneck Texan.” His personal attacks on Romney’s illegal alien gardeners were as hypocritical as Perry’s signing of the Texas Dream Act which delivered subsidized college tuition to Texas illegal aliens. While both are weak on illegal immigration, Perry is far the weaker and proved that again last night.
American people – CNN clearly lost control of this debate and at times it was embarrassing. It seemed it was a yell-filled fest with NO adult in the room. American voters have to be asking: is this the best America or the GOP has to offer as an alternative to President Obama?
What a choice in 2012: a “FAILED and INCOMPETENT” President Obama and a group of juvenile acting POSERS.
The reason why conservatives and Tea Party activists are likely to be disappointed in the Republican Presidential nomination process.
Chris, the GOP alignment needs to reverse course —> to the RIGHT!
From the Politico e-mail press release:
Nevada will hold its presidential caucus Saturday, Jan. 14, Nevada GOP Chairwoman Amy Tarkanian said. The state party set the date Wednesday night after New Hampshire refused to allow Nevada to tether its caucus date five days after the New Hampshire primary. The move could put the New Hampshire primary as far up as Jan. 3, which would push the Iowa caucus into December.
Welcome to Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire campaigning during the Christmas and New Year’s holidays.
Ho Ho Ho…..
Well, Florida decided on January 31, 2012 for their Presidential Primary election in violation of Republican National Committee rules and hence moves South Carolina.
South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary will be held on Jan. 21 of next year, two GOP sources tell CNN.
South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Chad Connelly will formally announce the date later this morning.
The move is designed to put space between South Carolina and Florida, which bucked national Republican Party rules last week and decided to hold their primary on Jan. 31.
The updated calendar is likely to push the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary even earlier into January as they seek to protect their role as the two leadoff contests in the presidential nominating process.
Nevada has already decided to move its GOP primary caucuses from February 18 to January. No specific date has been selected for Nevada. But, Nevada usually goes on the Saturday after New Hampshire and Iowa primary elections and before South Carolina.
Get ready for an early primary season for the Republican Presidential field. There will be Christmas/New Year’s campaigning in New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina.
Who wins in this development?
Mitt Romney and Rick Perry.
The GOP POLS are ready – well almost ready, but the states who are all maneuvering for position to attract Republican campaign cash to their states from the campaigns are not ready.
RNC sanctioned scenario:
- Iowa – February 6th
- New Hampshire – February 14th
- Nevada – February 18
- South Carolina – February 28th
- Super Tuesday – March 6 (Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Massachusetts,Vermont)
States like Arizona and Florida — risking losing half their delegates and other penalties — set their primaries early, pushing Iowa, New Hampshire, and other states into January or earlier.
What to watch:
- Arizona and Governor Jan Brewer who must announce her state’s primary 150 days in advance has until September 2 to set a January 31, 2012 primary date.
- Florida has until October 1 to announce their date. The RNC’s deadline for a state changing its primary or caucus date is October 1.
Mitt Romney will want an early Florida primary to give him momentum going into Super Tuesday. Rick Perry will like the schedule as it is certainly set, since it is front loaded with Southern states where he polls the best.
But, is the field even set?
In a humorous fundraising e-mail the Republican National Committee is playing upon the recent Obama vacation on Martha’s Vineyard.
He sure needs a break after a long year criss-crossing the country raising money to save his job – all the while over 14 million Americans are out of work and even more are suffering because of his policies.
After you send President Obama and your friends & family a postcard please take a moment to make a secure online contribution of $10, $15, $25, $50, $100 or more to support conservative candidates and help our Party defeat Barack Obama in 2012.
Chairman, Republican National Committee
Well, it is kinder than Matt Drudge’s treatment of the President.
According to the latest Gallup Poll.
More than half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 58%, do not express a preference when asked in an open-ended format — with no candidates’ names read — whom they are most likely to support for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination. Those who do have a preference most often mention Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann.
The July 7-10 poll result illustrates the uncertainty surrounding who the Republican challenger to President Barack Obama is likely to be in the 2012 presidential election. The high level of “no opinion” responses suggests that many Republicans are not highly engaged in the campaign to this point, and may be unclear about who is running. It also could indicate that Republicans who are familiar with the GOP field may not yet feel comfortable backing a particular candidate for the nomination.
So, what does this mean?
Most folks, unless they are pundits, are NOT focusing on the 2012 Presidential race. The top three candidates are without a doubt Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry. As time drifts towards Halloween and the debates start, voters will become more engaged and the GOP field will be set.
Now, whether the average American voter can name the candidates beside Obama, that may be another story.
Most people just don’t care.
According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Registered voters by a significant margin now say they are more likely to vote for the “Republican Party’s candidate for president” than for President Barack Obama in the 2012 election, 47% to 39%. Preferences had been fairly evenly divided this year in this test of Obama’s re-election prospects.
The latest results are based on a July 7-10 poll, and show that the Republican has an edge for the second consecutive month. Obama held a slight edge in May, when his approval rating increased after the death of Osama bin Laden. As his rating has come back down during the last two months, so has his standing on the presidential “generic ballot.”
Gallup typically uses this question format when a president is seeking re-election but his likely opponent is unknown, as was the case in 1991-1992 and 2003-2004, when incumbents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, respectively, were seeking re-election.
The elder Bush held large leads over his generic Democratic opponent throughout 1991, but early 1992 preferences were more evenly divided and Bush eventually lost his re-election bid. The younger Bush also consistently maintained at least a small advantage over the Democrat throughout 2003, before winning re-election in a close contest in November 2004.
More bad news for President Obama’s re-election prospects. Now, if the GOP can only agree who is generic enough to beat the President.
Most importantly is that Obama is trailing among independent voters by 10 points.
So, what does this all mean?
President Obama’s re-election prospects do not look very favorable at this point — if the election were held today, as measured by the generic presidential ballot. However, that result does not necessarily mean he is likely to be denied a second term in November 2012. At this point in 1991, George H.W. Bush looked like a sure bet to win a second term, but he was defeated.
One key factor in determining Obama’s eventual electoral fate is whom the Republican Party nominates as its presidential candidate and the appeal that person has compared with Obama. Mitt Romney is the presumptive front-runner, but Americans have generally not held very positive opinions of him the last few years.
The state of the nation will also influence whether Obama is elected to a second term. Right now, Americans are especially dissatisfied with the way things are going in this country, and economic confidence is lagging.
However, the political environment can certainly change in the 16 months leading up to the election, something that occurred during the 1984 and 1996 election cycles (in the incumbent’s favor) and 1992 cycle (in the opponent’s favor) when incumbent presidents were seeking re-election.
If the American economy does not turn around, it is my firm belief that Obama will be a one term President.
Of course, there are conditions, but Senator DeMint has pretty much laid down the gauntlet or should I say litmus test for the GOP.
Plus, the South Carolina Senator has the PAC money to back it up.
Conservative firebrand Sen. Jim DeMint has a message to fellow Republicans in Congress: If you support increasing the debt ceiling without first passing a balanced budget amendment and massive across-the-board spending cuts, you’re gone — destined to be swept out of Congress by a wave of voter anger.
“Based on what I can see around the country,” DeMint, R-S.C., said in an interview for the ABC News Subway Series, “not only are those individuals gone, but I would suspect the Republican Party would be set back many years.
“It would be the most toxic vote,” DeMint said. “I can tell you if you look at the polls, Democrats, Republicans, Independents, they do not think we should increase the debt limit.”
DeMint is not just talking political analysis here. He has a significant fundraising base and has shown a willingness to use his campaign money to support or oppose fellow Republicans.
DeMint will use that political muscle to oppose fellow Republicans who don’t stand firm on the debt ceiling issue. He said he will not support any candidate for Congress — incumbent or challenger — who does not sign a pledge promising not to vote for a debt limit increase without first passing a balanced budget amendment, making deep spending cuts and putting strict limits on future government spending. The same rule applies to presidential candidates.
But, the GOP will have to be careful, because I can foresee the Obama Administration scapegoating the GOP when they refuse to pay out Social Security and military payroll checks when and if the debt limit ceiling crisis hits this summer.
There will be some deals made to avert a crisis, but the Democrats are lirking in the weeds to inflict maximum damage to the Republicans.