• Electoral College,  President 2012

    President 2012: How Does the Electoral College Look – One Year Out?



    NBC has their battleground map above and their analysis.

    A year out from Election Day 2012, NBC’s battleground map shows that the presidential contest is shaping up to be VERY competitive and potentially VERY close; think 2004 meets 2000, with the 2008 states. According to the map, 196 electoral votes are in the Democratic column, while 195 are in the GOP column. And 147 electoral votes are considered a toss-up. The map also shows the toll the past summer took on President Obama: In April, it was 232 Dem, 191 GOP, with 115 toss-up.

    • Solid Dem (no chance at flip): DC, DE, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (67 electoral votes)
    • Likely Dem (takes a landslide to flip): CA, CT, IL, ME, WA (98)
    • Lean Dem: MN, NJ, OR (31)
    • Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI (147)
    • Lean GOP: AZ, GA, MO, NE (one EV), NH (42)
    • Likely GOP (takes a landslide to flip): AL, AR, IN, LA, MS, MT, NE (four EVs), ND, SC, SD, TX (100)
    • Solid GOP (no chance at flip): AK, ID, KS, KY, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (53)

    The fact is some of the key battleground states which I have been writing about since the beginning of 2011 have swung to the GOP and there remain just a few battlegrounds. One of these states must be won by President Obama in order to win the Presidency. These states are: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio.

    Here is my map which will reflect the Electoral College votes if the Presidential electionwere held today. This is an accurate representation of the polling data I have seen and will likely be the result of next November’s election.

    So, the GOP will concentrate its campaign resources into probably six states, depending upon who the nominee is – Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada. It is in these states where the race for the Presidency will be run.

    And, as of today, the Republican candidate wins the Presidency 275 Vs. 263.

    If you, the reader, would like to test other Electoral College vote scenarios, go here to this interactive website.

  • Barack Obama,  Los Angeles,  President 2012

    President 2012 Obama Jam: Another Fundraising Day and Another Obama Traffic Jam for Los Angeles

    About three plus hours to go but here is the latest about street closures for this afternoon and tomorrow.

    President arrives at 4:45pm at LAX

    • Usually he is helicoptered to the VA from where the motorcade departs
    • He will motorcade across the Westside to  sometime between 5pm and 6pm to two seperate events in Hancock Park – Santa Monica, Sunset, Olympic, Pico, Wilshire are all subject to rolling closures
    • He usually stays at the Beverly Hilton.  So sometime around 9-10pm he’ll probably head back from Hancock Park

    Metro has not provided bus advisories yet – but they will release as the afternoon continues.

    Santa Monica’s Big Blue Bus is alerting riders to delays on routes 1, 2, 3, 8, and 12.

    We’re still figuring out the Burbank portion of the trip – but we have received word the actual Tonight Show taping will be at 9am at NBC Studios near Olive and Alameda.  That means Obama will be on the move sometime between 8am and 9am from possibly the Beverly Hilton to Burbank.
    Obama is scheduled to leave for San Francisco at noon from LAX.

    Good luck out there.

    I will be leaving from downtown Los Angeles around 5 PM.

    Oh Joy!

  • John Garramendi,  Kim Dalbow Vann,  National Republican Congressional Commitee,  Solyndra

    GOP Ad Ties Democrat Rep. John Garamendi to Obama and a Bankrupt Solyndra

    John Garamendi supported President Obama’s failed stimulus, which took bets with taxpayer money and recently lost $535 million on the Solyndra scandal.

    California Democrat Rep. John Garmaendi has a Solyndra problem and the NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) is calling him and President Obama out.

    The National Republican Congressional Committee is sending an early signal that it intends to compete in California in 2012.

    The committee is launching an ad Thursday against Rep. John Garamendi, a Democrat serving his first full term and running in the redrawn, Sacramento-area 3rd district. His district got considerably more competitive in the state’s independent redistricting process, and he was outraised by his Republican opponent in the third quarter.

    The 60-second ad, which launches Thursday and will run on cable for two weeks, ties Garamendi to President Barack Obama and his support for Solyndra, a California-based solar power company that went bankrupt after receiving a $535 million federal loan guarantee.

    “John Garamendi supported the Obama policy that loaned Solyndra money,” the announcer says in the ad. “Garamendi backed Obama’s failed stimulus economic policy. John Garamendi and President Obama are making our economy worse.”

    Garamendi’s top GOP opponent is Colusa County Supervisor Kim Dolbow Vann, who raised $125,000 in the third quarter and had nearly all of that left in the bank at the end of September. Garamendi raised just $93,000 and had $113,000 in cash on hand.

    The district is one of six potential California targets for the NRCC. Democrats are still expected to gain seats in the state next year, but how many will depend on whether the GOP can pick up some of the more competitive districts such as the 3rd.

    It should be an interesting Congressional election season with the new Congressional districts drawn by a citizen’s commission. Also, the top two vote getters in the June primary election, then move on to the general election in the Fall.

    Obviously, the NRCC views Garamendi, a long-time Democratic POL in California, as vulnerable.

    And, he may very well be, especially of voter turn out for President Obama is low.

  • GOP,  President 2012

    President 2012: Las Vegas GOP Debate – Winners and Losers

    Republican presidential candidates former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, left, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry speak during a Republican presidential debate Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2011, in Las Vegas

    I, always wait a few hours before writing these post-mortems on the GOP Presidential debates. It is best to do so and let all of the spin sort itself out of the blogosphere and my e-mail box.

    So, who won and who lost last night?

    WINNERS:

    Mitt Romney – under personal attack from Rick Perry the Teflon candidate, while not unscathed, managed to repel Perry and remain the front-runner. Mitt has been crusing the past few debates and he proved he can mix it up with the best of them.

    Barack Obama
    – the President actually looks sane and reasonable as compared to the haranguing group of GOP contenders. The GOP should enforce a poll requirement rule and limit who attends the next few debates and that goes from Rick Santorum to Ron Paul.

    LOSERS:


    Herman Cain
    – his 9-9-9 tax was exposed as the double Valued Added Tax that it is. A tax which WOULD increase taxes on the majority of Americans. Rick Perry was correct when he said it won’t fly.

    Michele Bachmann – she continued her decent into the third tier with an uninspiring performance, sticking to her talking points to win over religious conservatives in Iowa. Even if Bachmann wins in Iowa, she is done, just like Huckabee in 2008, but probably with less campaign funds. Romney hopes Michele has enough money to last until January 3 and the Iowa Caucuses. This may be a stretch.

    Rick Perry – his Texas BULLYING style will not win him any friends in the GOP or with independent voters. Obama’s campaign team should want to run against this stereotypical boisterous “redneck Texan.” His personal attacks on Romney’s illegal alien gardeners were as hypocritical as Perry’s signing of the Texas Dream Act which delivered subsidized college tuition to Texas illegal aliens. While both are weak on illegal immigration, Perry is far the weaker and proved that again last night.

    BIGGEST LOSER:

    American people – CNN clearly lost control of this debate and at times it was embarrassing. It seemed it was a yell-filled fest with NO adult in the room. American voters have to be asking: is this the best America or the GOP has to offer as an alternative to President Obama?

    What a choice in 2012: a “FAILED and INCOMPETENT” President Obama and a group of juvenile acting POSERS.

  • Election 2012,  Electoral College,  President 2012

    President 2012: Obama Targets a Few Key States

    The 2008 Presidential Electoral College Results

    Well, DUH.

    In addition to his bus trip this week through North Carolina and Virginia, the Wall Street Journal notes President Obama will “will visit another key region, the Mountain West, next week, where Hispanic voters helped put Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico in the president’s column in 2008.”

    “The focus on both regions is meant to give the president multiple routes to victory and to reduce his dependence on Ohio and Florida, the giant electoral prizes that have long defined presidential politics. The Obama campaign still plans to fight for both, but its climb has become steeper, as polls show that many working-class white voters have soured on the president.”

    ” “A campaign official noted that if Mr. Obama were to win all the states Democrat John Kerry took in 2004, he would claim an Electoral College majority in 2012 if he could win both North Carolina and Virginia, or one of those states plus Colorado and Nevada. Democrats won none of those states in 2000 or 2004, but Mr. Obama won all four in 2008.”

    Just look at the Electoral College map.

    President Obama will have a difficult time winning in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina, according to recent polls. Nevada will also be a stretch for Obama (the economy has been devastated there), particularly if Mitt Romney is the GOP nominee.

    Colorado is doable for the President, but if he loses all of the rest, he is toast.

    If Nevada, in the below map, goes to Obama then the race would be a 269 vs. 269 tie and the House of Representatives would decide who the next President is (likely GOP).


    You can go over here and run the numbers and scenarios.

  • Democrats,  Occupy Protests,  Occupy Wall Street

    Ventura County Democratic Party Adopting Occupy Ventura?


    Ventura County Democratic Party E-mail

    Certainly looks like it.

    The Conejo Valley Democratic Party sent out this missive earlier today.

    So, the questions abound.

    Do the Ventura County Democrats subscribe to the principles of Occupy Together’s Collective Statement?

    Occupy Ventura website

    As we gather together in solidarity to express a feeling of mass injustice, we must not lose sight of what brought us together. We write so that all people who feel wronged by the corporate forces of the world can know that we are your allies.

    As one people, united, we acknowledge the reality: that the future of the human race requires the cooperation of its members; that our system must protect our rights, and upon corruption of that system, it is up to the individuals to protect their own rights, and those of their neighbors; that a democratic government derives its just power from the people, but corporations do not seek consent to extract wealth from the people and the Earth; and that no true democracy is attainable when the process is determined by economic power. We come to you at a time when corporations, which place profit over people, self-interest over justice, and oppression over equality, run our governments. We have peaceably assembled here, as is our right, to let these facts be known.

    1.     They have taken our houses through an illegal foreclosure process, despite not having the original mortgage.
    2.     They have taken bailouts from taxpayers with impunity, and continue to give Executives exorbitant bonuses.
    3.     They have perpetuated inequality and discrimination in the workplace based on age, the color of one’s skin, sex, gender identity and sexual orientation.
    4.     They have poisoned the food supply through negligence, and undermined the farming system through monopolization.
    5.     They have profited off of the torture, confinement, and cruel treatment of countless animals, and actively hide these practices.
    6.     They have continuously sought to strip employees of the right to negotiate for better pay and safer working conditions.
    7.     They have held students hostage with tens of thousands of dollars of debt on education, which is itself a human right.
    8.     They have consistently outsourced labor and used that outsourcing as leverage to cut workers’ healthcare and pay.
    9.     They have influenced the courts to achieve the same rights as people, with none of the culpability or responsibility.
    10.     They have spent millions of dollars on legal teams that look for ways to get them out of contracts in regards to health insurance.
    11.     They have sold our privacy as a commodity.
    12.     They have used the military and police force to prevent freedom of the press.
    13.     They have deliberately declined to recall faulty products endangering lives in pursuit of profit.
    14.     They determine economic policy, despite the catastrophic failures their policies have produced and continue to produce.
    15.     They have donated large sums of money to politicians, who are responsible for regulating them.
    16.     They continue to block alternate forms of energy to keep us dependent on oil.
    17.     They continue to block generic forms of medicine that could save people’s lives or provide relief in order to protect investments that have already turned a substantial profit.
    18.     They have purposely covered up oil spills, accidents, faulty bookkeeping, and inactive ingredients in pursuit of profit.
    19.     They purposefully keep people misinformed and fearful through their control of the media.
    20.     They have accepted private contracts to murder prisoners even when presented with serious doubts about their guilt.
    21.     They have perpetuated colonialism at home and abroad.
    22.     They have participated in the torture and murder of innocent civilians overseas.
    23.     They continue to create weapons of mass destruction in order to receive government contracts.*

    To the people of the world, We, the New York City General Assembly occupying Wall Street in Liberty Square, urge you to assert your power.

    Exercise your right to peaceably assemble; occupy public space; create a process to address the problems we face, and generate solutions accessible to everyone.

    To all communities that take action and form groups in the spirit of direct democracy, we offer support, documentation, and all of the resources at our disposal.

    Join us and make your voices heard!

    So, who are they?

    • President Obama?
    • Congress?
    • The Tea Party?
    • Democrats?
    • Republicans?

    Or, are the Democrats just co-opting this movement to support their partisan agenda?

    Inquiring minds would like to know, as the Democrats hit the bricks in a day or so.

  • Death Penalty,  Polling

    Poll Watch: Support for Death Penalty Falls to 61% – a 39-year low

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Sixty-one percent of Americans approve of using the death penalty for persons convicted of murder, down from 64% last year. This is the lowest level of support since 1972, the year the Supreme Court voided all existing state death penalty laws in Furman v. Georgia.

    Gallup first asked about use of the death penalty in murder cases in 1936. At that time, 59% of Americans supported it and 38% opposed it. Americans’ views on the death penalty have varied significantly over the 75 years since, including a period from the late 1950s to the early 1970s when less than a majority of Americans favored it. Support climbed to its highest levels from the mid-1980s through the mid-1990s, including the all-time high of 80% who favored the death penalty in 1994. Since then, support has gradually declined; this year’s measure of 61% marks a 19-percentage-point drop over the past 17 years, and a 3-point drop from last year’s measure.

    The Oct. 6-9 poll was conducted shortly after the execution of Troy Davis in Georgia, which generated widespread protests and extensive news coverage. This could help explain the slight drop in support for the death penalty this year. However, there have been high-profile executions in the news in previous years without concomitant drops in death penalty support, making it less clear that such events have a direct impact on attitudes.

    There are a number of reasons for the decline in support.

    The most profound is probably the discovery of DNA and other forensic evidence which may cast in doubt some jury verdicts. In other words, some convicted murderers may be put to death wrongly. Whereas, a sentence of life in prison without parole would allow the convicted felon time to appeal – a lifetime in fact.

    There is also a sense of frustration with the legal process. It takes forever to execute someone in the United States – sometimes many decades.

    Less Than Half Say Death Penalty Not Imposed Often Enough

    This year, 40% of Americans say the death penalty is not imposed often enough, the lowest such percentage since May 2001, when Gallup first asked this question. Twenty-five percent say the death penalty is used too often, the highest such percentage yet that Gallup has measured. The rest (27%) say the death penalty is imposed about the right amount.

    The graph:

    And, is the death penalty FAIRLY applied?

    Fifty-two percent of Americans say the death penalty is applied fairly in this country, down from 58% last year, but similar to the 51% who felt this way in June 2000.

    The graph:

    Now, let’s look at the demographics of those who support the death penalty.

    Almost three-quarters of Republicans and independents who lean Republican approve, compared with 46% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic. Additionally, men, whites, and those living in the South and Midwest are among those most likely to support the death penalty. Americans younger than age 30 are less likely to support the death penalty than are those who are 30 and older.

    The graph:

    So, what does this all mean?

    There will be increasing pressure for some states to end the death penalty and changing punishment heinous criminal conduct to life in prison without parole. However, a clear majority of American voters favors the death penalty and a majority of states will resist those efforts and maintain the ultimate punishment for the foreseeable future.

    A separate Gallup trend question, not asked this year, explicitly offers respondents the opportunity to choose between the death penalty and life imprisonment with no possibility of parole, and last year’s update found about half of Americans preferring the latter option. On the other hand, Gallup has found support for the use of the death penalty rising when Americans are asked about specific cases involving high-profile mass killings, such as the Oklahoma City bomber, Timothy McVeigh.

  • GOP,  President 2012

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Nevada to Hold Primary on January 14

    From the Politico e-mail press release:

    Nevada will hold its presidential caucus Saturday, Jan. 14, Nevada GOP Chairwoman Amy Tarkanian said. The state party set the date Wednesday night after New Hampshire refused to allow Nevada to tether its caucus date five days after the New Hampshire primary. The move could put the New Hampshire primary as far up as Jan. 3, which would push the Iowa caucus into December.

    Welcome to Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire campaigning during the Christmas and New Year’s holidays.

    Ho Ho Ho…..