• Polling,  Unemployment Rate

    Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Down to 7.9% in Mid-July

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 7.9% in mid-July, down 0.1 percentage points from June and May. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate also declined 0.1 points, to 7.7% in mid-July.

    These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking surveys conducted from June 15 to July 15, including interviews with more than 30,000 U.S. adults — 68.0% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate incorporates the adjustment used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the same month of the previous year.

    On both an unadjusted and an adjusted basis, the mid-July unemployment readings, if sustained the rest of the month, would be the lowest monthly rates since Gallup began tracking unemployment daily in January 2010. Gallup’s adjusted unemployment rate incorporates the downward seasonal adjustment of 0.2 points the BLS applied in July 2011. Gallup’s unadjusted unemployment rate for July 2011 was 8.8% and the adjusted rate was 8.6% — both substantially higher than they are now.

    And, underemployment has decreased to the lowest levels since 2010.

    So, what does this mean?

    There has NOT been any dramatic improvement in the American unemployment rate for the past three months. Although the rate is a little better than last year, it is not good news for folks looking for a job or incumbent politicians

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    Romney Now Leads Obama Among Middle Income Voters

    According to the latest Obama vs. Romney Gallup Presidential Poll.

    Mitt Romney currently has a 49% to 45% edge over Barack Obama among middle-income voters, those whose annual household income is between $36,000 and $89,999. Romney has the same lead among upper-income voters, while Obama maintains a wide advantage among lower-income voters.

    The results are based on Gallup Daily tracking of 2012 election preferences by demographic group, including more than 9,000 interviews with registered voters conducted between May 14 and June 3. During this period, Obama and Romney were tied at 46% among all registered voters.

    Voting preferences by income group have been fairly well-established since Gallup began tracking the general election on April 11. Obama’s lead over Romney among low-income voters has ranged between 13 and 16 percentage points in each of the three-week rolling averages of the vote by demographic group that Gallup has reported since late April. Meanwhile, Romney’s edge among middle-income voters has been between four and seven points, and among upper-income voters, between four and six points.

    Romney, the wealthy former head of Bain Capital, has slightly greater appeal to the highest-income voters in Gallup’s data, those making $180,000 or more in annual income. This group has shown a 53% to 42% preference for Romney since mid-April, compared with 50% to 45% for Romney among those earning between $90,000 and $179,999.

    Again, this is good news for Mitt Romney and the Republican Party.

    If Obama loses the middle income folks, he is not going to be re-elected.The fact is there is greater voter participation among middle income voters than lower income ones.

    It appears that Obama’s appeal is based more upon race, than winning the economic argument of “sharing the wealth around.”

    Obama’s large lead among low-income voters overall is due to two factors. First, as the prior table shows, lower-income nonwhites prefer Obama to Romney by a 68-point margin, compared with smaller 55-point and 52-point margins among middle- and upper-income nonwhites, respectively. At the same time, Romney has a smaller lead among lower-income white voters (10 points) than among middle- (19 points) or upper-income white voters (14 points).

    Second, and perhaps more importantly, nonwhites fall disproportionately into the lower-income group. Nearly half of nonwhites, 49%, report annual household incomes of less than $36,000. And 38% of those in the lower-income group are nonwhite, compared with 22% of those in the middle-income group and 17% in the upper-income group.

    But, most importantly, Mitt Romney is leading among middle income and independent voters, a key demographic.

    Though Romney’s edge among middle-income voters is similar to his lead among upper-income voters, in certain subgroups of middle-income voters he performs especially well. That includes middle-income independent voters, who right now prefer Romney by an eight-point margin, 48% to 40%. Obama leads among lower-income independents, and the two are tied among upper-income independents.

    All in all, a good poll for Mitt Romney early in the race.

    No wonder the odds makers at InTrade.com have seen Obama crater in recent trading.

  • Polling,  Unemployment Rate

    Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Decreases Slightly to 8.2%

    According to the latest Gallup unemployment poll.

    U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, declined slightly to 8.2% in mid-May from 8.3% in April. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.5% in mid-May, down slightly from 8.6% last month.

    These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted over the 30 days of April 16 to May 15, including interviews with 30,236 U.S. adults, 67.5% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate incorporates the adjustment used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the same month of the previous year.

    On an unadjusted basis, the mid-May unemployment rate, if sustained the rest of the month, would represent a new monthly low in unemployment since Gallup began tracking it daily in January 2010, down from the previous low of 8.3% recorded last month and from 9.2% last May.

    Incorporating the upward seasonal adjustment of 0.3 percentage points that the BLS applied last May yields a seasonally adjusted rate for mid-May of 8.5%. This is substantially higher than the seasonally adjusted monthly low of 7.9% for Gallup’s U.S. unemployment rate in January of this year, but significantly lower than the 9.5% in May 2011.

    Nothing earth shattering here with the unemployment rate.

    A big drop is what the Democrats and President Obama’s re-election campaign wants, but I do not think this will happen anytime soon.

    Underemployment is also down slightly.

    Gallup’s U.S. underemployment measure, which combines the unemployed with those working part time but looking for full-time work, is 18.0% in mid-May, compared with 18.2% in April. The underemployment rate declined to as low as 18.0% last July but changed direction in August. It increased to 19.1% in February before plunging to 18.0% in March and 18.2% last month.

    So, what this mean?

    There is slow American economic growth and American businesses may be holding back because of either the upcoming election or the Supreme Court’s ruling on ObamaCare.

    Also, in a warning sign for the government, unemployment numbers may have improved a little, simply due to the fact that long term unemployed people have stopped looking for work.

    Moreover, there is also considerable variance of Gallup’s unemployment numbers and those released by the Obama Administration. Go figure.

    Gallup’s unemployment measurements now and in April stand in sharp contrast to those the government provided. The BLS reported an April unadjusted unemployment rate of 7.7% and an adjusted unemployment rate of 8.1%. These findings were generally seen as inconsistent with the state of the economy and the findings of the BLS payroll survey. There were not enough jobs created last month — even after the size of the workforce declined — to lower the unemployment rate as much as the government reported.

    It is possible that the government’s unemployment numbers for May could revert back to the Gallup trend, as occurred in March and during much of late 2011. Still, there was a considerable gap between Gallup’s results and those of the government in February and April. Regardless, Gallup’s preliminary unemployment numbers for May, based on continuous daily measurement, show a slight improvement compared with April.

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Women

    The result comes from the CBS-New York Times Poll about which I posted here.

    Here is a more formal post about Mitt Romney’s poll lead.

    President Obama’s claim that the GOP is mounting a war on women has proven to be a failure. A month into his assault on the Republicans and Mitt Romney, the new CBS-New York Times poll shows that the GOP presidential candidate now leads among women–and men.

    Since April, women have gone from strongly backing Obama to endorsing Romney. In April, Obama held a 49 percent to 43 percent lead among women. That has now flipped to 46 percent backing Romney with 44 percent for Obama, an 8-point switch.

    Ironically, Romney’s support among men has dropped, but he still edges Obama 45 percent to 42 percent.

    And here’s a surprise: Despite the media hyping the so-called war on women, no major outlet today noticed Romney’s new lead with women voters.

    And, I love the Matt Drudge dig…

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obama

    President Obama and Mitt Romney

    According to the latest CBS-New York Times national poll.

    Mitt Romney holds a 3 percent lead over President Obama nationally in the latest CBS News-New York Times poll.  Romney took 46 percent in the poll, compared to Obama’s 43 percent. The 3 percent difference is within the poll’s 4 point margin of error.  Obama and Romney were tied at 46 in the same poll conducted last month.

    The president’s endorsement of same-sex marriage has dominated the headlines recently, but the poll found the economy will be the most important issue to voters in the fall. Sixty-two percent said the economy was the most important issue, while the deficit was a distant second at 11 percent. Only 7 percent said same-sex marriage was the most important issue in the election. President Obama’s job approval rating has been hovering around break-even, and is at 48 percent approval and 48 disapproval, according to the poll.  Romney continues to lead Obama among independents, 43 to 36, while Obama leads among moderates, 50 to 39.

    This is a good poll for Mitt Romney and to be so close to Obama with the campaign barely starting demonstrates the President’s vulnerability. This election is ALL about the economy and jobs and Obama’s pivot to gay marriage has to be viewed as a cynical attempt to change the national discourse.

    It hasn’t and it won’t.

    Mitt Romney’s campaign has demonstrated a discipline, unlike McCain’s and will stay like a laser beam trained on the economy.

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama and Romney in a Dead Heat

    A new Presidential poll from Politico has the race between President Obama and Mitt Romney in a virtual dead heat.

    A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll finds a dead heat in the presidential race six months before the election.

    Mitt Romney edged out President Barack Obama 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, a number well within the margin of error, as Republicans rapidly consolidate behind the likely GOP nominee.

    The former Massachusetts governor has opened up a 10-point lead, 48 percent to 38 percent, among independents in a poll conducted Sunday, April 29 through Thursday, May 3 and a 6-point lead among those who describe themselves as “extremely likely” to vote in November. Obama led Romney by 9 points overall in POLITICO’s February’s poll.

    But there are suggestions that these numbers are extremely fluid: Obama holds double-digit leads over the presumptive Republican nominee on issues such as who will better handle foreign policy and who will stand up for the middle class and on “sharing your values.” But enduring concern about the economy — by far the most important issue to voters — keeps the president in a tenuous position despite employment numbers that show slight but steady improvement.

    Again, like the Gallup Poll previously mentioned a good start for Mitt Romney.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Race Close in 12 Swing States

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    In the first USA Today/Gallup swing-state poll conducted since Mitt Romney became the presumptive Republican nominee, Romney and President Barack Obama are nearly tied — 45% vs. 47%, respectively — among registered voters in the 12 battleground states that make up the poll.

    The presumptive Republican nominee is better positioned today than he was in March, when USA Today/Gallup found Obama leading by nine percentage points among swing-state voters. Romney now roughly matches his standing earlier in the year, before he secured the Republican nomination.

    The latest results are from the sixth USA Today/Gallup Swing States poll. Interviewing was conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking April 26-May 2 with 951 registered voters in 12 states where the presidential race is expected to be closely contested: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

    I don’t agree with Gallup’s selection of “swing states” but with that said, Mitt Romney is in a good position now with the campaigns just starting.

    New Mexico, Pennsylvania,and Wisconsin are very likely not in play this November. Here is my assessment for the Electoral College.

    As far as enthusiasm for these candidates, it is a little early to gauge this statistic. With the Supreme Court posing to rule on ObamaCare and Romney’s choice of Vice President soon to come, this measure swill swing, depending upon voter perceptions.

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Nevada Poll Watch: Obama Surges to an 8 Point Lead

    According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.

    President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in a head-to-head matchup in Nevada.

    A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama earning 52% support, while Romney picks up 44% of the vote.  Two percent (2%) prefers some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

    This Nevada survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on April 30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

    Perhaps the economy is better in Nevada. But, in any case, Mitt Romney had better choose his Vice Presidential running mate with Nevada in mind.

    A key battleground state, Romney needs to win in Nevada.

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012: State of the Race for the Presidency: April 25, 2012

    From Real Clear Politics

    With Mitt Romney locking up the Republican nomination last night, it is time to look at the general election face off between him and President Obama. The Real Clear Politics poll average has Obama up by 4.1 points.

    Now, let’s look at the Electoral College vote averages (Real Clear Politics):

    Here we have the state of the race: President Obama is up by a few points and there are a number of key battleground states which will determine who wins in November.

    Here is my prediction:

    This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com

    Let the campaigns begin…..

  • Barack Obama,  Marco Rubio,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Susana Martinez

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Arizona in Play?

    If Arizona is in play, then Mitt Romney will be a collosal Biggest Loser in November. This poll while close is probably an outlier.

    With the 2012 presidential election just over six months away, the latest statewide Merrill/Morrison Institute poll found that Arizonans are evenly divided on whom they will support in November.

    According to the poll of 488 registered voters, 42 percent said they would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, while 40 percent said they would support President Barack Obama and 18 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent, if the election were held today the contest for Arizona’s 11 electoral votes would be a “toss up.”

    The poll found that the electorate is divided along party lines: 80 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Romney, 78 percent of Democrats for Obama. Although the sample of political independents is small (n=166), independents appear to be breaking slightly more for Obama (38 percent) than Romney (28 percent). However, the independent vote is still up for grabs because 34 percent of independents said they are undecided.

    “In Arizona, like the rest of the nation, political independents may determine who wins in November,” said poll director Dr. Bruce Merrill, a senior fellow at Morrison Institute for Public Policy. “The eventual outcome also may be dependent on whether former Surgeon General Richard Carmona can mount a vigorous campaign for retiring Sen. John Kyl’s seat, a campaign that would stimulate turnout in the Hispanic community. While I think if the election were held today Romney probably would win, it appears Obama can mount a competitive campaign in Arizona.”

    Romney appears to have the Tea Party support. Among the 39 percent of the electorate who said they support what the Tea Party stands for, 75 percent said they would vote for Romney.

    But the poll also found that younger voters disproportionately support Obama while older voters support Romney. No “gender gap” was found among Arizona voters, however, as 40 percent of both men and women said they would vote for Obama.

    Remember Arizona has not sent its Electoral College votes to a Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948.

    But, if anything this poll may make more of a case for Romney to add an Hispanic to the ticket – like Senator Marco Rubio od Florida or Governor Susan Martinez of New Mexico.