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The Morning Flap: October 31, 2011

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These are my links/comments for October 30th through October 31st:

  • When is Elton’s deadline?– The afternoon of March 10, 2006, was one of the most chaotic ever seen in the office of the Ventura County Elections Division. Earlier that day, Rep. Elton Gallegly had visited former Ventura County Star Editor Joe Howry and dropped this bombshell: He intended to retire.The deadline to file declarations of candidacy for the office was 5 p.m., and Gallegly’s announcement set off a wild scramble. Former Assemblywoman Audra Strickland was at the counter asking about candidacy forms, first for her husband, Tony, and then for herself.

    When the dust had settled, none of it mattered. All three politicians had already filed declarations of candidacy — Gallegly for Congress, Audra Strickland for Assembly and Tony Strickland for controller — and as all three found out, those declarations, once submitted, cannot be withdrawn.

    Gallegly, after receiving medical assurances that the health issue that prompted his aborted retirement was not serious, changed his mind, ran after all, and easily won re-election. The incident, however, prompted a change in elections law. The following year the Legislature passed a bill — known in some quarters as “Elton’s Law” — that added Congress to the list of offices for which an automatic filing extension is granted if a “qualified incumbent” does not file for re-election. The law is designed to prevent shananigans that would allow an incumbent to secretly decide to retire then hand-pick a successor who could file at the last minute, shutting out any other potential challengers.

    Fast forward to 2011, and Gallegly once again is being coy about his intentions. It is highly unlikely that anything resembling 2006 will happen again. After all, there are still more than four months before the filing period closes at 5 p.m. on March 9 … or does it?

    Given that Gallegly lives just outside the boundary of the new 26th Congressional District, is he an “eligible incumbent”? And if he chose not to file, would the deadline be extended?

    Timm, Gallegly is running for re-election. It doesn’t make any difference when he files.

  • President 2012 GOP Wisconsin Poll Watch: Perry 46% Vs. Obama 42%– Barack Obama carried Wisconsin easily in the 2008 presidential election, but he is slightly behind Texas Governor Rick Perry and runs just ahead of two other top Republican hopefuls in Rasmussen Reports’ first Election 2012 look at the Badger State.Perry earns 46% support from Likely Wisconsin Voters to Obama’s 42% in a new statewide telephone survey. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and another six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

    The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on October 26, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

    And, a non-battleground state. Obama is in trouble.

  • Romney Taps Bush’s Network– The Wall Street Journal reports that Mitt Romney has picked up more of President George W. Bush’s top fundraisers than any other candidate in the Republican presidential race, and has even “won over twice as many of the Bush backers as Texas Gov. Rick Perry,” who served as Bush’s Lieutenant Governor in Texas.”Winning the support of Mr. Bush’s network would be a coup given that the former president’s fund-raising operation was among the best in recent Republican campaigns. He invented the modern system of relying on a group of ‘bundlers’ who could generate huge sums by soliciting donations from colleagues, friends and associates… Of the roughly 550 people who raised at least $100,000 for Mr. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign, about 400 have yet to make a campaign donation to any of the Republicans running for president.”

    The major donors don’t believe Rick Perry can win…

  • MF Global Files for Bankruptcy Protection– MF Global Holdings Ltd., the holding company for the broker-dealer run by former New Jersey governor and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. co-chairman Jon Corzine, filed for bankruptcy after making bets on European sovereign debt.The New York-based firm listed total debt of $39.7 billion and assets of $41 billion in Chapter 11 papers filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan. Its finance unit, MF Global Finance USA Inc., also filed, with debt of as much as $50 million and assets of as much as $500 million.

    “The boards of directors of both entities authorized the filing of the Chapter 11 petition in order to protect their assets,” the companies said today in a statement.

    MF Global’s board had met through the weekend in New York to consider options including a sale to avert failure, according to a person with direct knowledge of the situation. Following a record loss, MF Global was suspended today from doing new business with the New York Federal Reserve, according to a statement on the regulator’s website. Trading in MF Global’s stock was also halted.

    No Secretary of the Treasury for Jon Corzine….

  • Herman Cain already unpopular with female voters– Even before allegations of sexual harassment against Herman Cain surfaced, the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO polled poorly with female voters. The numbers suggest that compared with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney , Cain is in big trouble with this demographic.In four early primary states, according to recent CNN polls,Romney significantly outperformed Cain with female Republicans in every contest save South Carolina. In Iowa, where the two contenders are statistically tied, Romney took 28 percent of female voters and Cain got 17.

    Politico reported Sunday that Cain was accused of sexual harassment by two former employees at the National Restaurant Association, which he led in the 1990s, and that the women left with financial settlements. Cain told Fox News Monday that he “never sexually harassed anyone” and “was falsely accused.”

    If even more women turn against Cain, it could give Romney — who already does better with female than male voters — the chance to pull ahead in the GOP presidential primary.

    The Des Moines Register wrote Sunday that in the new Iowa poll that showed Cain and Romney neck-and-neck, men were behind Cain’s success — 26 percent prefer him while only 18 percent backed Romney. The numbers were almost exactly the reverse for Romney with female respondents — the former governor beat Cain 27 to 17 percent.

    Not really a surprise.

  • Is Cain’s denial plausible?– Herman Cain told Fox News that he never sexually harassed anyone, although he was falsely accused of such at the National Restaurant Association. He then declared: “If the restaurant association did a settlement, I wasn’t even aware of it and I hope it wasn’t for much. If there was a settlement, it was handled by some of the other officers at the restaurant association.”For that to be true, many things would also have to be true:
    1. Herman Cain never asked the NRA how the claim got resolved;
    2. Cain never had to sign a settlement agreement or any other document;
    3. He trusted the NRA to obtain a complete release on his behalf, and the women never demanded that Cain release potential counterclaims (e.g., for defamation);
    4. He never agreed to keep the matter confidential — for example, after he left the NRA. (Arguably the association could bind him while he was still employed, but wouldn’t it have had to tell him to ensure compliance?); and
    5. In his role as CEO, Cain never had to approve a settlement, was never told the cost of the settlement and never saw a budget entry confirming a settlement.

    Probably not…..

  • My morning with Herman Cain « The Enterprise Blog – RT @JimPethokoukis: My morning with Herman Cain at AEI
  • President 2012: Herman Cain Says He Was Falsely Accused of Sexual Harassment | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Herman Cain Says he was FALSELY ACCUSED of Sexual Harassment – not aware of settlements:
  • Dilbert October 30, 2011 – Ignorance on Display » Flap’s California Blog – Scott Adams and Dilbert discover digital media curation…..
    :
  • What Happens to Cain and the GOP Field? – What Happens to Cain and the GOP Field?
  • President 2012: The Herman Cain Sexual Harassment Flap: Can Cain Survive? | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – A round-up of the Herman Cain alleged sexual harassment Flap….:
  • @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-10-31 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-10-31 #tcot #catcot
  • AEI – 9-9-9: A Discussion with Herman Cain – >Should be a feeding frenzy by media RT @JimPethokoukis: Herman Cain at AEI, tomorrow, 9 AM EST, LIVE STREAMED, BABY!
  • Cain responds to sex harassment allegation | Campaign 2012 – Cain responds to sex harassment allegation #fb #tcot
  • Exclusive: 2 women accused Herman Cain of inappropriate behavior – Jonathan Martin and Maggie Haberman and Anna Palmer and Kenneth P. Vogel – POLITICO.com – > The Beginning of the end? Two women accused Herman Cain of inappropriate behavior #fb
  • Michael Ramirez Cartoon – Michael Ramirez on the leaving of Iraq…..:
  • The Sunday Flap: October 30, 2011 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – The Sunday Flap: Today’s Political Headlines:
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The Morning Flap: October 27, 2011

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  • Self-Reported Gun Ownership in U.S. Is Highest Since 1993– The new result comes from Gallup’s Oct. 6-9 Crime poll, which also finds public support for personal gun rights at a high-water mark. Given this, the latest increase in self-reported gun ownership could reflect a change in Americans’ comfort with publicly stating that they have a gun as much as it reflects a real uptick in gun ownership.
  • The new result comes from Gallup’s Oct. 6-9 Crime poll, which also finds public support for personal gun rights at a high-water mark. Given this, the latest increase in self-reported gun ownership could reflect a change in Americans’ comfort with publicly stating that they have a gun as much as it reflects a real uptick in gun ownership.Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) are more likely than Democrats (including Democratic leaners) to say they have a gun in their household: 55% to 40%.
  • While sizable, this partisan gap is narrower than that seen in recent years, as Democrats’ self-reported gun ownership spiked to 40% this year.Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) are more likely than Democrats (including Democratic leaners) to say they have a gun in their household: 55% to 40%. While sizable, this partisan gap is narrower than that seen in recent years, as Democrats’ self-reported gun ownership spiked to 40% this year.
  • Polls: 12 House pickup chances for Democrats – New polls out Thursday of 12 House districts now held by Republicans in four states showcase some prime pickup opportunities for Democrats next year.
  • The House Majority PAC, which can raise unlimited money to support Democratic candidates with an independent expenditure campaign, commissioned Public Policy Polling to survey 12 districts where the redistricting process has been completed.
  • In every one, less than 50 percent of voters said they would like to see the incumbent Republican reelected next year. And a majority in all but one expressed a negative opinion of the Republicans in Congress.
  • Ali Lapp, executive director of House Majority PAC, argues that “Republican control of the House is in serious jeopardy.”
  • Redistricting in Arkansas, California, Illinois and Wisconsin – where PPP polled the dozen districts – could help Democrats.
  • Some Republicans who have not faced competitive races in years now face serious trouble. Illinois Rep. Tim Johnson, for example, has been drawn by the Democratic legislature into a treacherous district where just 33 percent of voters would like to reelect him, according to the new poll, while 53 percent would prefer someone else.
  • “Congressional Republicans have become very unpopular, very fast, across a very wide variety of districts and that’s going to make dozens of incumbent GOP members vulnerable for reelection next year,” PPP director Tom Jensen, a respected Democratic pollster, writes in a three-page memo.
  • Democrats face a very heavy lift to get the 25 seats they need to regain a majority. That kind of turnover is rare, and Republicans have solidified their holds on certain seats in states where they controlled the redistricting process. Historically, the kind of turnover from the last three election cycles is very rare, yet polls like these give Democrats confidence.
  • Which begs the question: At what point is he simply required to put his best foot forward in the Hawkeye State?
  • The CNN/TIME Magazine poll shows Romney with a statistically insignificant lead on businessman Herman Cain, 24 percent to 21 percent, and is one of two major polls this month to show Romney with a small lead in Iowa. (The other being an NBC/Marist College poll from early in the month, before Cain really picked up steam.)
  • Despite this, Romney has visited the state only three times this year and continues to dance around the concept of running a full-throated campaign in it. He skipped the Ames Straw Poll two months ago and, most recently, became the only major GOP presidential candidate who hasn’t sworn off Iowa (read: Jon Huntsman) to skip the state GOP’s Ronald Reagan Dinner.
  • Romney’s campaign is smartly lowering expectations in a state that will be tougher than the others for him and that he doesn’t necessarily need; after all, the CNN poll shows he’s got a great chance at winning basically any of the early states (he leads in all of them), and his chances are especially good in New Hampshire and Nevada, the latter which CNN didn’t poll but has shown large leads for Romney.
  • Is Perry dropping off the debating circuit? – It’s hard to believe that Texas Gov. Rick Perry would bug out of the debates, but that is what his campaign was hinting about yesterday. Politico reports: “Perry spokesman Mark Miner said the issue is using time wisely, and noted their campaign is not alone in that. ‘I think all the campaigns are expressing frustration right now,’ Miner told POLITICO. ‘We said we would do Michigan but the primaries are around the corner and you have to use your time accordingly.’?”
  • I am not aware of any other candidate thinking of fleeing the chance for free airtime to sell himself or herself to the American people. Should Perry back out after a series of awful debate outings, the message would plainly be: This is too hard for me.
  • Perry is big on sport metaphors and has said his low standing in the polls won’t send him home at halftime. But if he absents himself from the debates, especially the foreign policy debate on Nov. 15, the unmistakable message is that he really isn’t ready for prime-time.

Enjoy your morning!

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Paul Ryan

The Morning Flap: October 26, 2011

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Flap’s links for October 23rd through October 26th:

  • How Rick Perry’s Tax Plan Would Affect You– Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, who is seeking the Republican presidential nomination, today released some details on his flat tax proposal. The plan would give Americans the option of determining their taxes based on an alternate system that has one tax rate and fewer deductions.We asked the Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan joint venture of the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution, to help calculate how Mr. Perry’s proposal might affect different kinds of American families. Roberton Williams, a senior fellow there, kindly crunched some numbers using what’s known about the new proposal.

    The chart below shows a few different types of families — single, married with children, head of household with children, and retired — and what kind of tax liabilities they would face under current law and under Mr. Perry’s alternative system:

  • Pizza Magnate Leads GOP Presidential Pack In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Romney Stalled As Perry Vanishes– Former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain has jumped to the front of the line among GOP presidential contenders with 28 percent support among Ohio Republicans. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is second with 23 percent, while Texas Gov. Rick Perry is almost at the bottom of the pile with 4 percent.Cain leads a three-man race with 40 percent, followed by Romney at 33 percent and Perry at 10 percent.

    President Barack Obama’s job approval rating and re-elect numbers remain underwater among Ohio voters, who disapprove 51 – 43 percent and say 49 – 44 percent the president does not deserve a second term, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

    Despite his negative scores, the president leads potential Republican challengers:

    47 – 39 percent over Cain;
    45 – 41 percent over Romney;
    47 – 36 percent over Perry.

 

 

By Paul Ryan
October 26, 2011 — The Heritage Foundation
Remarks as Prepared for Delivery

Thank you so much, Ed, for that kind introduction.

We’re here today to explore the American Idea, and I can’t think of a better venue for this topic. The mission of the Heritage Foundation is to promote the principles of free enterprise, limited government, individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong national defense.

These are the principles that define the American Idea. And this mission has never been timelier, because these principles are very much under threat from policies here in Washington.

The American Idea belongs to all of us – inherited from our nation’s Founders, preserved by the countless sacrifices of our veterans, and advanced by visionary leaders, past and present.

What makes America exceptional — what gives life to the American Idea — is our dedication to the self-evident truth that we are all created equal, giving us equal rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. And that means opportunity.

The perfection of our union, especially our commitment to equality of opportunity, has been a story of constant striving to live up to our Founding principles. This is what Abraham Lincoln meant when he said, “In giving freedom to the slave, we assure freedom to the free – honorable alike in what we give, and what we preserve.”

This commitment to liberty and equality is something we take for granted during times of prosperity, when a growing economic pie gives all Americans the opportunity to pursue their dreams, to provide brighter futures for their kids, or maybe just to meet their families’ needs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • t.co / Twitter – RT @RasmussenPoll: Obama: Strongly Approve: 18%… Strongly Disapprove 40%… Approval Index: -22… Total Approval: 44%… …

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • SF ballot measures: will courts revisit pensions? – One of two competing pension measures on the San Francisco ballot next month is said by opponents to be an illegal assault on the “vested rights” of public employees, a cost-cutting plan certain to be overturned by the courts.

 

The measure does not raise the issue that the Little Hoover Commission and others say urgently needs a new look by the courts: whether the pensions of current workers not yet earned by time on the job can be cut.

But Measure D by Jeff Adachi, the city public defender, does raise the annual payments employees must make toward their pensions without bargaining or providing an offsetting benefit.

“As written, D raises contribution rates on current employees, but fails to include offsetting reductions in good economic times when the city’s costs are reduced,” said a ballot pamphlet rebuttal written by Mayor Ed Lee and others. “D is not only unfair, legal experts say it’s unlawful and will be invalidated by the courts, leaving taxpayers with zero savings.”

In a ballot pamphlet reply, Adachi urges voters not to let the opponents “scare” them: “Last year, a San Francisco Superior Court ruled that the city could change the contribution rates of its employees in order to protect the fiscal integrity of the system, which is what Prop D does.”

Whether voter approval of Measure D on Nov. 8 would result in a court ruling making a significant statewide change in case law is not clear.

Many legal experts, but not all, believe that a series of past court rulings mean that pensions promised state and local government employees on the date of hire cannot be cut without providing other benefits of equal value.

 

 

 

  • Poll: In North Carolina, Obama Beats Cain by 80 With Black Voters – Oh, he’s losing overall, and I’m not trying to hide that with the headline, but the racial crosstab is what really jumps out to me from the new Civitas poll in North Carolina. Civitas polled 600 voters, of whom 126 were black. That’s a decent-sizes sample. Obama easily crushes Cain with those voters, carrying blacks 86 percent to 6 percent. (Only 8 black voters in this sample said they’d vote for Cain.) John McCain only got 5 percent of the black vote here in 2008 — Cain barely improves on it!
    What explains this? When I was writing this piece about Cain and Tea Partiers, I spent some time on black news sites, seeing what was being written about the surprise Republican frontrunner. It was overwhelmingly negative. If you were to get all of your info on Cain from black news sites, you’d mostly learn that the guy didn’t participate in the Civil Rights movement, wasn’t immediately offended by Rick Perry’s “Niggerhead” rock, and wanted the Secret Service to call him “cornbread.” Just yesterday, Toure spat out a remarkable amount of bile in a piece explaining why, as a black voter, he despises Cain.
    Cain is a clown. You see it in the way he constantly mollifies white audiences with self-effacing, racialized comedy that borders on minstrelsy (referring to himself as “black-walnut ice cream” or suggesting that the Secret Service call him “Cornbread”)… Cain is what I long imagined the first Black President would be like: a Republican who many Blacks find unctuous.
    Toure could have continued on with the central liberal complaint about black conservatives — that they are used to appeal to guilty-feeling whites, not to do anything for blacks.

 

 

  • Will Steve Jobs’ final vendetta haunt Google? – The depths of Jobs’ antipathy toward Google leaps out of Walter Isaacson’s authorized biography of Apple’s co-founder. The book goes on sale Monday, less than three weeks after Jobs’ long battle with pancreatic cancer culminated in his Oct. 5 death. The Associated Press obtained a copy Thursday.
    The biography drips with Jobs’ vitriol as he discusses his belief that Google stole from Apple’s iPhone to build many of the features in Google’s Android software for rival phones.
    It’s clear that the perceived theft represented an unforgiveable act of betrayal to Jobs, who had been a mentor to Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin and had welcomed Google’s CEO at the time, Eric Schmidt, to be on Apple’s board.
    Jobs retaliated with a profane manifesto during a 2010 conversation with his chosen biographer. Isaacson wrote that he never saw Jobs angrier in any of their conversations, which covered a wide variety of emotional topics during a two-year period.
    After equating Android to “grand theft” of the iPhone, Jobs lobbed a series of grenades that may blow a hole in Google’s image as an innovative company on a crusade to make the world a better place.
    “I will spend my last dying breath if I need to, and I will spend every penny of Apple’s $40 billion in the bank, to right this wrong,” Jobs told Isaacson. “I’m going to destroy Android because it’s a stolen product. I’m willing to go to thermonuclear war on this. They are scared to death because they know they are guilty.”
    Jobs then used a crude word for defecation to describe Android and other products outside of search.
    Android now represents one of the chief threats to the iPhone. Although iPhones had a head start and still draw huge lines when new models go on sale, Android devices sold twice as well in the second quarter. According to Gartner, Android’s market share grew 2 1/2 times to 43 percent, compared with 17 percent a year earlier. The iPhone’s grew as well, but by a smaller margin — to 18 percent, from 14 percent.
    Both Google and Apple declined comment to The Associated Press when asked about Jobs’ remarks.
    Jobs’ attack is troubling for Google on several levels.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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