According to the latest Public Opinion Strategies (R) Poll.
A new Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll in Nevada shows Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) leading Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-NV) in the U.S. Senate race by six points, 48% to 42%.
The poll is here.
According to Nevada political reporter extraordinaire John Ralston, Heller is head in Washoe County by 17 points and also ahead with independents (2 to 1).
Quite possible in the latest PPP Poll.
The Wisconsin Senate seat being vacated by Herb Kohl is looking like a genuine Republican pick up opportunity, with both Tommy Thompson and Mark Neumann leading all the potential Democratic candidates we tested besides Russ Feingold.
Feingold, who doesn’t seem terribly interested in running, would still be the strongest potential candidate. He has the best favorability rating of anyone we looked at both overall (49/43) and specifically with independents (52/37). He would have the slightest advantage over Thompson, 48-47, and a more healthy one over Neumann at 51-44. Feingold led them by 10 and 12 points respectively when PPP first looked at this race in May so there’s been a good amount of movement toward the Republicans since that time.
Good news for the GOP and if former Senator Feingold does NOT run, this will likely be a gain for the GOP next year.
The entire poll is here.
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:
- Senator Claire McCaskill – 46% Vs. 47%
Approval Vs. Disapproval Vs. Not sure:
- Todd Akin – 18% Vs. 21% Vs. 61%
- John Brunner – 8% Vs. 19% Vs. 73%
- Blaine Luetkemeye – 14% Vs. 22% Vs. 64%
- Ed Martin – 11% Vs. 20% Vs. 70%
- Sarah Steelman – 26% Vs. 22% Vs. 52%
General election Head to Head:
- McCaskill – 46% Vs. Akin – 45%
- McCaskill – 47% Vs. Brunner – 41%
- McCaskill – 45% Vs. Luetkemeye – 42%
- McCaskill – 46% Vs. Martin – 39%
- McCaskill – 45% Vs. Steelman – 42%
Missouri Senator Clair McCaskill is vulnerable in 2012 and the GOP is counting on picking up her seat. The latest PPP Poll does nothing to give her campaign any optimism.
These margins don’t exactly look comfortable for McCaskill and a look inside the numbers suggests they’re likely to get worse. There are a good deal more undecided Republicans than Democrats in all of these match ups- 5% more undecided GOP voters against Steelman, 6% more against Akin, 10% more against Luetkemeyer, 11% more against Brunner, and 12% more against Martin. If those folks end up coming ‘home’ you’re looking at each of the Republican picking up another 2-4 points on the margin.
Why are there so many more Republican undecideds? The crop of GOP candidates continues to be mostly unknown to voters in the state. None of them reaches 50% name recognition. Steelman is the best known with 48% of voters having an opinion about her, 26% positive and 22% negative. She’s followed by 39% who know Akin (18/21), 36% who know Luetkemeyer (14/22), 31% who know Martin (11/20), and 27% who know Brunner (8/19).
The state of this race remains the same- McCaskill is one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection next year. But the bad news cycles she endured over the last few months seemed like they had the potential to shift this race to one where she was favored to lose. In that sense the continued toss up status of the contest is good news for her.
Good news for McCaskill?
I suppopse she could be behind but with her airplane woes and the lack of GOP hit ads means that worst is yet to come.
This race will NOT be a toss-up but a GOP gain.