• American Economy,  Barack Obama,  Jimmy Carter,  President 2012,  Ronald Reagan,  Unemployment Rate

    President 2012: In Key Battleground States Unemployment Has Increased Since October 2008

    Electoral College vote map of Larry Sabato

    Chris illizza over at the Washington Post looks at key battleground states for the Presidential race of 2012 and gives the data. You know the question in one of the Presidential debates to President Obama will be (like GOP challenger Ronald Reagan asked President Jimmy Carter in 1980): “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”

    Well, with the regards to unemployment the news is not good for President Obama.

    And that raw political reality could put President Obama in a difficult spot as he prepares to seek another four years in the White House amid conflicting signs about the relative health of the economy.

    The state-by-state unemployment numbers released late last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics tell the story.

    In every one of the 14 swing states heading into 2012 — Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — the unemployment rate has risen since October 2008.

    The increases range from the tiny — just a 0.7-point jump in Minnesota and New Hampshire — to the titanic in places like Nevada (up 4.4 points) and Florida (up 3.6).

    And, Obama’s only response will be: “You should have seen how bad it would have been.”

    I don’t know if this is going to wash in Nevada and Florida.

    But, on the other hand of these 14 swing states that Cillizza mentions only 4 have May unemployment above the national average. But, you know that is spin and unemployment generally is worse since President Obama has been in office.

    President Reagan beat Jimmy Carter on the answer to the “better off” question. He won re-election because while unemployment was high, it was improving.

    That “trend line” vote is why the late President Ronald Reagan won a second term overwhelmingly in 1984 despite the fact that the unemployment rate was at 7.3 percent in October of the election year. (It had been at 10.3 percent as recently as March 1983.)

    The best way for Obama to counteract the “are you better off” question is to have evidence to point to that things are turning around — that whether or not you believe the country was on the brink of an economic catastrophe you see signs that your financial situation is improving and have reason to hope the future will be brighter.

    The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll suggests he’s not there yet.

    No, President Obama is not there yet and unless the economy improves very quickly, he will go the way of Jimmy Carter.

  • American Economy,  Barack Obama,  Inflation,  Jimmy Carter,  Misery Index

    Misery Index: Barack Obama is a One Term Jimmy Carter Type President?

    If the Misery index of unemployment and inflation is the harbinger of election 2012, Barack Obama will NOT be re-elected.

    When it comes to measuring the combination of unemployment and inflation, it doesn’t get much more miserable than this.

    In fact, misery, as measured in the unofficial Misery Index that simply totals the unemployment and inflation rates, is at a 28-year high, reflective of how weak the economic recovery has been and how far there is to go.

    The index, first compiled during the soaring inflation days of the 1970s by economist Arthur Okun, is registering a nausea-inducing 12.7—9.1 percent for unemployment and 3.6 percent for annualized inflation—a number not seen since 1983. The index has been above 10 since November 2009 and had been under double-digits from June 1993 through May 2008.

    But, President Reagan in the 1980’s had a plan to wring the misery out of the economy (created by President Jimmy Carter’s economic policies) – cuts in government spending, tax reform and tax cuts. Plus, Paul Volcker’s tight money policy at the Fed helped control inflation. I remember the high inflationary price pressures, high gold prices and rampant real estate speculation – plus, the gasoline lines under Carter.

    Reagan won the election in 1980 with his plan to right the economy.

    Without these policy changes and a dramatic improvement of the economy, Reagan would NOT have been re-elected in 1984.

    President Obama knows what has worked in the past. He simply doesn’t believe these measures will work because of his political ideology of tax and redistribution of wealth.

  • American Economy,  Polling,  Unemployment Rate

    Poll Watch: Unemployment Remains at 2010 Levels – Underemployment Remains High

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is at 8.9% in mid-June — down from 9.2% at the end of May and 9.1% in mid-June a year ago.

    The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work is 9.7%.


    And, underemployment is down slightly but still as high as in mid-June 2010
    . Underemployment is a measure that combines the percentage of unemployed with the percentage working part-time but want full-time work.

    So, what does this all mean?

    Although there is a small improvement in American unemployment, the unemployment rate remains high – around 2010 levels. Underemployment has not improved since last year. And, since last year’s rates were improving like 2011, this may be due to seasonal employment, which means the job market is flat.

    Not a good report for the Obama Administration and the President’s re-election campaign.

    Gallup’s U.S. unemployment and underemployment data indicate a modest improvement in job market conditions in mid-June compared with the end of May. This may partly result from a seasonal increase in employer hiring; Gallup’s data do not adjust for such changes. Still, underemployment remains at 2010 levels.

    However, unemployment and underemployment tend to lag economic activity. Gallup’s employment data from the second quarter of the year are consistent with the modest 1.8% U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2011. But Gallup’s measures did not show the improvement suggested by the government’s unemployment numbers earlier this year or the deterioration during April and May. Instead, they have shown the 2011 unemployment situation to be similar to that of 2010.

  • American Economy,  Election 2012,  Polling

    Poll Watch: U.S. Economic Confidence Deteriorates in Early June – Approaches 2011 Weekly Low



    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    A sharp deterioration in the jobs outlook and six straight weeks of Wall Street declines sent Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy plunging to an average of -35 during the week ending June 12 — a decline of nine percentage points from two weeks ago, and six points worse than it was in the same week a year ago. Economic confidence is now approaching a 2011 weekly low.

    I can tell you the economy is very poor in Southern California with many of my friends worried about their jobs. Many have been furloughed this past year or taken pay and/or benefits cuts.

    And, polling shows economic expectations are worsening.

    The graph:

    Nearly half of Americans rated economic conditions as poor last week.

    So, what does this all mean?

    The American economy WILL be the PRIME issue as we go into the 2012 Presidential election cycle. It is all about the economy and American voters will take out their wrath on the POLS.

    Gallup’s Economic Confidence measure surged in early May, coincident with the bump in presidential approval after the death of bin Laden. However, the bin Laden “halo effect” on economic confidence has dissipated in early June, as economic news has become increasingly negative.

    Unemployment and underemployment as measured by Gallup have shown no improvement compared with a year ago. In this regard, the government’s job numbers have moved closer to Gallup’s numbers as the U.S. unemployment rate as reported by the BLS worsened from 8.8% in March to 9.0% in April and 9.1% in May.

    The sharp drop in economic confidence in early June is consistent with the deterioration in the jobs situation, six consecutive weeks of decline on Wall Street, and fears of a global economic slowdown. Even a recent decline in gas prices to $3.78 a gallon has not been enough to offset the decline in consumer optimism — possibly in part because overall pump prices remain more than $1 per gallon higher than they were a year ago.

    The key question going forward is whether the current economic soft patch is going to be modest and transitory or something more significant. That two out of three Americans say the U.S. economy is “getting worse” — approaching the high for the year — suggests many consumers may see something more significant coming in terms of a summer slowdown.

  • American Economy,  President 2012,  Unemployment Rate

    President 2012: Chronic Unemployment Worse Than Great Depression

    This will be the number one issue in the Presidential race of 2012 – unemployment.

    About 6.2 million Americans, 45.1 percent of all unemployed workers in this country, have been jobless for more than six months – a higher percentage than during the Great Depression.

    The bigger the gap on someone’s resume, the more questions employers have.

    “(Employers) think: ‘Oh, well, there must be something really wrong with them because they haven’t gotten a job in 6 months, a year, 2 years.’ But that’s not necessarily the case,” said Marjorie Gardner-Cruse with the Hollywood Worksource Center.

    The problem of course is the economy, but some industries, especially certain manufacturing jobs, are not ever expected to come back. Experts say unemployed workers need to be prepared to change careers.

    “That person has to realize that, discover what field they want to work in, become trained and find a job in that field,” said Jerry Nickelsburg, Sr., an economist at UCLA.

    Here’s another problem: more than 1 million of the long-term unemployed have run out of unemployment benefits, leaving them without the money to get new training, buy new clothes, or even get to job interviews.

    If the GOP nominates a half-way decent candidate, President Obama will have a hard time persuading voters that he has done a job deserving re-election.

  • American Economy,  Polling,  Unemployment Rate

    Poll Watch: Unemployment Stagnant in May



    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, stood at 9.2% at the end of May — unchanged from mid-May and down slightly from 9.4% at the end of April. It is also slightly lower than it was at the same time last year (9.5%

    And, the graph of Americans working part-time and wanting full-time work – also unchanged in May.

    Then, there is the underemployment rate:

    Underemployment — which includes both part-time workers wanting full-time employment and the unemployed — has remained flat since mid-March. Underemployment was 19.2% at the end of May, unchanged from 19.3% a month ago and 19.1% a year ago.

    The graph:


    But, job seekers are no more hopeful about finding work as compared with a year ago.

    Job seekers’ attitudes mirror Gallup’s stagnant employment data. In May, 46% of the underemployed reported being hopeful they would find work in the next four weeks. This number is identical to the 46% reporting hope in May 2010. Hope among the unemployed was 53% in both May 2010 and May 2011. Part-timers continue to be more pessimistic than the unemployed about the potential to find work in the next four weeks (40% in 2010 vs. 41% in 2011).

    The graph:

    So, what does this all mean?

    With the GOP Presidential candidates announcing their runs for the White House today and over the next few weeks, President Obama cannot claim improvement in unemployment. He cannot claim a better economy as unemployment remains stagnant.

    With unemployment remaining high, historically, it will be more difficult for the President to make the case for re-election.

    Gallup’s measures of unemployment and underemployment are little changed in comparison with May 2010. Year-to-year comparisons provide the clearest picture of true changes in the rates because of seasonal variation in employment. Gallup data have seen some significant year-to-year declines in unemployment and underemployment in 2011, but not the consistent pattern of significant decline seen in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, in both unemployment and U-6.

    Gallup’s data seem to indicate that despite unemployment declines reported by the government, the American workforce has yet to feel a stable improvement in the jobs climate.

  • American Economy,  Barack Obama,  Day By Day,  Israel

    Day By Day May 29, 2011 – Last Call



    Day By Day by Chris Muir

    Chris, while Obama’s foreign policy disasters like selling out our democratic allies are renown, the American economy looms as the prime argument against his re-election. The price of gasoline, food and the bankruptcy of many states will loom heavily as voters decide on the Presidential race.

    American Jews vote 70% for the Democratic Party. Now, why they will accept the anti-Israel nonsense from Obama is anyone’s guess? But, historically they have an establisned voting pattern and since they live primarily in a few very blue states a few percentage points towards the GOP will be negligible.

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    The Day By Day Archive

  • American Economy,  Polling,  Unemployment Rate

    Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Falls to 9.4% But Underemployment Increases to 19.3%



    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, fell to 9.4% at the end of April from 9.6% in mid-April and 9.9% at the end of March. Unemployment is now at its lowest level of 2011 and is lower than the 9.6% at the end of April last year.

    So, should Americans be reassured that the economy is turning around?

    Well, perhaps, since a broader unemployment measure remained high in April.

    The decline in unemployment since late March was not enough to offset the increase in those working part time but wanting full-time work. As a result, the combined underemployment measure was 19.3% at the end of April — essentially the same as the 19.2% in mid-April and slightly higher than the 19.0% at the end of March. Underemployment is now higher than the 18.9% at the end of April a year ago.

    Here is the graph:

    While the unemployment rate has decreased a little, there are more Americans only working part-time while they desire full-time work. Some work is better than no work but the implications are clear – people will remain disgruntled – especially at the ballot box.

    There has been a relatively modest decline in unemployment over the first four months of 2011, and that improvement may be at least partly the result of seasonal hiring factors. There was a similar downward trend in Gallup’s not-seasonally adjusted unemployment measure over the same four-month period in 2010. This similarity in trends also holds for Gallup’s Job Creation Index and broader underemployment over the same time frames.

    These trends are consistent with the Challenger report for April that showed fewer workers being let go than in March and slightly fewer than in April a year ago, and the ADP report that found a less-than-expected 179,000 increase in private-sector hiring during April. While layoffs are down, businesses continue to hold back on their hiring in the U.S.

    Although the jobs situation has been relatively flat in 2011 — not much better than in 2010 and with an increasing number of people working part time but wanting full-time work — even marginal job growth is good, given the slow growth of the first quarter of this year. At a time when the U.S. economy is facing numerous economic headwinds, including plummeting consumer confidence and soaring food and gas prices, the challenge may be to maintain this performance during the months ahead.

  • American Economy,  Food Stamps,  Welfare

    About 1 in 7 Americans Receive Food Stamps



    California is a little less than 1 in 10, but come on now.

    Growth in the food stamp program appeared to reach a plateau in February — with 14.3% of the population relying on the safety net program.

    The number of food stamp recipients was essentially flat in February, the most recent month available, with 44.2 million Americans receiving benefits, according a new report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. (See a sortable breakdown of the data here.)

    The food stamp program ballooned during the recession as workers lost their jobs or saw their hours and income reduced. The rise in recipients has begun to flatten in recent months, which may mean that as the economy is improving fewer Americans are seeking to join the program. Enrollment in the program is still high though, with 11.6% more people tapping benefits in February than the same month a year earlier.

    Food stamp numbers aren’t seasonally adjusted though, meaning a variety of factors could influence the monthly tallies and the program could grow again in coming months.

    Mississippi and Oregon were among the states with the largest share of the population utilizing food stamps in February: At least one in five residents in each state were receiving benefits.

    Wyoming had the lowest rate of recipients with just 6.6% of the state’s residents using food stamps.

    The economy is poor, the federal budget is running massive deficits requiring massive debt, and there is high unemployment.

    And, Americans cannot feed themselves or their children without help from the government?

    What is wrong here?

    I would recommend the Congress and the President get busy in paring back regulations, reducing taxes, providing business incentives and helping American companies get a foothold, so they can hire Americans for their jobs, instead of offshoring or relying on illegal immigrants. America needs to manufacture things here again.

    This is ridiculous.