• Barbara Boxer,  Carly Fiorina

    CA-Sen Poll Watch: Barbara Boxer 49% Carly Fiorina 46% MOE +/- 4%

    Well, the race is still within the margin of error and the Dems cannot really claim this race as won.

    Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer still holds a small lead over Republican Carly Fiorina in California’s U.S. Senate race, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely Voters in the state.

    Boxer, who is seeking a fourth six-year term, now earns 49% support to Fiorina’s 46%. Two percent (2%) prefer another candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.

    Boxer posted a 48% to 46% lead a week ago. In spite of her powers as an incumbent and California’s strong Democratic leanings, Boxer’s been struggling to widen the gap all year. She’s held a small lead in every survey but one since February with 42% to 49% of the vote. Fiorina, a former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, has earned 38% to 47% support in those same surveys.

    Exit question: Will the national GOP wave and GOTV ground operation propel Carly Fiorina to victory next Tuesday?

  • Barbara Boxer

    CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer Apologizes for Soliciting Los Angeles Teachers to Break California Law

    boxerletter6290605 CA Sen: Barbara Boxer Solicits Los Angeles Teachers to Obtain Student Volunteers in Violation of California Law

    The letter from the Barbara Boxer for U.S. Senate campaign


    I guess Senator Barbara Boxer was caught red handed in violating California law and now has issued a lame apology.

    Boxer campaign manager Rose Kapolczynski had this explanation: “Because some local social studies teachers encourage students to volunteer, Boxer campaign volunteer coordinators notified a handful of schools near the campaign headquarters that the campaign was accepting volunteers. The letter did not ask teachers to solicit students to work on the campaign or to use school facilities, supplies or equipment for political purposes. The sole intent of the letter was to provide interested students with information about a volunteer opportunity. However, the letter, which was written by a volunteer and reviewed by a junior staffer, was inappropriate and we apologize. The author of the letter has been counseled and campaign coordinators will no longer conduct outreach to public schools.”

    Yeah Yeah. Boxer was caught in this greasy scheme.

    So, what else is new?

    Barbara Boxer is a slimy, lifelong POL who knows how to work the system.

  • Barbara Boxer

    CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer Solicits Los Angeles Teachers to Obtain Student Volunteers in Violation of California Law

    The letter from the Barbara Boxer for U.S. Senate campaign

    Yes, this is a pretty egregious violation of the California Education Code and Boxer should know better. The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association letter is here. (Word Doc)

    Today the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association notified the Los Angeles Unified School District and the Los Angeles Board of Education today that, in abject ignorance of California state law, the political campaign of Senator Barbara Boxer has openly solicited teachers employed by LAUSD to urge their students to volunteer for her campaign.

    HJTA’s letter to the school district urges LAUSD to immediately inform all its personnel, credentialed or otherwise, that it would be a clear violation of law for teachers to recruit their students on school property during school hours to volunteer for a specific political campaign.

    Pursuant to both case law and a specific provision of the California Education Code, what Boxer wants would leave LAUSD subject to both civil and potentially criminal sanctions.  Common sense should also tell her that seeking public resources and classroom time from teachers to do her political bidding is just wrong.  Barbara Boxer should know better.

    But, you see, Boxer needs Los Angeles County Democrats to turn out for her on November the 2nd or she is toast. Desperation breeds contempt of the law.

  • Barbara Boxer,  Carly Fiorina

    CA-Sen: Is Barbara Boxer Surging in the Polls?

    Unlikely, when you look at the sampling methods of the recent polls in a very large state as is California.

    If you follow California Senate polling closely, you have to be feeling a little bit nauseated from the roller coaster ride you’ve been on.  Some polls are showing Senator Barbara Boxer with a comfortable 9-point lead and above 50 percent, while others are showing a much closer race.  One Republican pollster even shows Fiorina ahead.

    What is going on here?  The answer is something I’ve discussed before:  Pollsters are having a devil of a time agreeing on what the electorate is going to look like

    This chart above has changed a bit with the latest Survey USA poll having been released overnight. It is here. Their current breakdown is D:42%, R:34%, I:21%.

    As you can see, the ratio of Democrats to Republican in the sample goes hand-in-glove with the size of Boxer’s edge.  More Democrats equals more Boxer votes.  In fact, the adjusted r-square is pretty nice — about .74.  These polls’ internals actually don’t disagree that much — most of them have both candidates losing about 10 percent of their respective bases, while Fiorina has a double-digit edge among independents.

    So who is right?  Well, that’s the frustrating thing — we can’t definitively say.  But we can get some sense of history here.  The following table shows the exit poll results for 2008, 2006 and 2004, as well as the present early voting numbers:

    As you can see, the pollsters showing a comfortable Boxer lead are showing electorates that are similar to 2008.  On the other hand, the pollsters who are showing a tight race see an electorate more like 2004 or 2006.

    So, what does the race and polling come down to with less than a week to go?

    As, I have said before, it comes down to turn out – who actually shows up to vote on election day. If the Republicans are motivated and all come out to vote for Carly Fiorina, Fiorina wins the independent minded voter who shows up and/or the Democratic base of ethnic voters and Labor fail to show, even a little – Fiorina wins.

    If the Democrats all show up to vote, Boxer wins. After all, it is a numbers game and the Democrats far and away out number the Republicans.

    The GOTV (Get Out the Vote) ground operations of the California GOP may very well decide this race.

  • Barbara Boxer,  Carly Fiorina

    CA-Sen: NRSC Believes The Race is Winnable or Why Would They Bet $3 Million on Carly Fiorina?

    National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Ad which will run statewide in California

    A pretty obvious conclusion since they are spending the money.

    It was the expenditure heard ’round the political world: The GOP is pouring $3 million into the race against Sen. Barbara Boxer on behalf of GOP nominee Carly Fiorina.

    The news Monday that the National Republican Senatorial Committee planned to dump that much money into California, this late in the campaign, was enough to cause a double take. The NRSC was already in for $4.8 million in coordinated spending — making the nearly $8 million total expenditure in California the most the committee has publicly committed to any state this year and the most ever in California.

    At the heart of the GOP investment is a belief that the race is much closer than Tuesday’s Public Policy Polling survey, which showed Boxer up 52-43, or last week’s Los Angeles Times poll that gave the incumbent an 8-point lead.

    “For their turnout model to be accurate, it would have to mean a worse environment for Republicans than 2006,” a GOP operative familiar with the NRSC’s spending plans said of the Times survey. “We have two tracking polls that both show Carly only down 1 point and Boxer below 50, which is a bad place for an incumbent to be after so much spending.”

    Recent polling also has convinced the GOP that voters are differentiating between Fiorina and gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman, who appears to be sinking in her race against former Gov. Jerry Brown.

    “Carly can win even if Meg doesn’t win,” the operative said.

    I, also, feel California voters may very well split their ballot and vote for Jerry Brown, the Democrat but hedge their bets and vote for Fiorina, the Republican. A sort of balancing, as it were. Besides, Carly Fiorina does not have the “Nanny” problem of Whitman and Boxer is, well, an unpopular figure – ma’am, i mean Senator.

    There is a throw the bums out mentality even in Left Coast Blue California but voters just can’t vote for Meg – so they vote for Carly instead and send Babs to retirement.

    I bet all of the next few polls show Fiorina within the margin of error and Boxer well be below 50 per cent – a disaster for an incumbent.

    But, stay tuned as Carly mends from an infection and tries to heal up in time for last minute campaigning.

    Anything can happen folks, as this race goes down to the wire.

  • Barbara Boxer

    CA-Sen: Another Ethics Investigation of Barbara Boxer?

    California Democrat U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer

    Looks like it and it involves her son, Douglas again.

    In a breaking development that may affect the close California Senate race, Pajamas Media has learned The Foundation for Ethics in Public Service sent a letter to Eric Holder last Thursday requesting the attorney general “begin an investigation to determine whether United States Senator Barbara Boxer violated any criminal laws or should be liable for any civil penalty for failure to disclose real property on her Personal Financial Disclosure Reports between 2002 and 2010.”

    The specific property FEPS is referring to is an Oakland, California, home valued at over a million dollars and co-owned by Boxer, her husband Stewart, their son Douglas, and his wife Amy. The letter to Holder reads in part:

    Despite the fact that Senator Boxer had an ownership in 854 Longridge Road [in Oakland], she failed to report this substantial real property asset on any of her personal financial disclosures between 2002 and 2010.  She had also failed to report the mortgage on the property.  Further, she failed to report the purchase of 854 Longridge Road in 2002.  Each year Boxer was required to have filed a “full and complete report.”

    The filing of false or incomplete disclosure statements  is in violation of the Ethics  in Government Act. The Act authorizes the Attorney General of the United States to seek civil penalties against Senators who knowingly and willy falsify or fail to report required information. The knowing and willful concealment of the existence of substantial amount of real property for a prolonged period may subject Senators to federal criminal prosecution under 18 U.S.C. paragraph 101. [other citations are available at the link]

    The Oakland home is currently lived in by Douglas and his wife.  This is not the first time Senator Boxer’s son has been the center of controversy.  The senator reportedly paid out nearly $500,000 from her campaign contributions to her son’s public relations firm between 2001 and 2009.  Those moneys could have been used to pay off the mortgage on the Oakland property, adding urgency to the DOJ investigation sought by The Foundation for Ethics in Public Service and further complicating the legal and ethical issues involved.

    Well, this is certainly a last minute October surprise and it may be picked up by the MSM in California. The whole flap with Boxer’s son will play out after the election when the ethics trial of Congresswoman Maxine Waters is tried in her own ethics trial in the House.

  • Barbara Boxer,  Carly Fiorina

    CA-Sen: State of the Race October 25, 2010 Morning

    This morning’s Real Clear Politics poll average graph is above and the race continues to be a toss up, tied. The poll average table is here.

    So, what does this mean for California voters?

    Non-stop political ads from Barbara Boxer and Carly Fiorina over the next week.

    There had been some uncertainty as to whether the Fiorina Campaign would be able to compete with Boxer on the number of ad impressions over the last week of the campaign but that concern has been laid to rest.

    With outside groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce already pouring in millions to defeat California Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, the National Republican Senatorial Committee announced a $3-million independent expenditure for television ads in the final week of the campaign.

    The committee, which rarely makes major expenditures in California, had already spent the maximum allowed — $4.8 million — in coordinated expenditures with GOP nominee Carly Fiorina’s campaign in what it views as a highly competitive race.

    “This critical spending continues to demonstrate our confidence that the California Senate race is neck-in-neck thanks to Barbara Boxer’s out-of-touch, reckless Washington spending agenda,” committee spokeswoman Amber Marchand said in a statement.

    The new independent expenditure comes after Fiorina announced she was putting another $1 million of her own money into the campaign, allowing her to match Boxer’s cash on hand for the final stretch.

    It appears that Fiorina will be able to match the Boxer ad buys over the next seven days. This is bad news for Boxer.

    With the polls so very close (also bad news for the incumbent Senator, Boxer), the ground operations of the California Republicans (GOTV), including the Meg Whitman for California Governor Campaign may very well decide this U.S. Senate race.

  • Barbara Boxer,  Carly Fiorina

    CA-Sen Video: Carly Fiorina’s Newest Television Ad “Crushed” Attacks Barbara Boxer’s Failed Legacy

    Carly Fiorina’s latest television ad “Crushed”

    California U.S Senate candidate Carly Fiorina is “on air” with a new Fred Davis television ad.

    From the press release:

    As part of a continuing effort to highlight the stark contrast between incumbent senator Barbara Boxer’s failed tenure in Washington and Carly Fiorina’s commitment to common-sense problem solving, the Fiorina campaign today launched the fifth 30-second ad of its general election statewide television advertisement campaign, titled “Crushed.”

    “Barbara Boxer’s legacy after 28 years of failed leadership in Washington is bleak, as Californians across the state have watched their livelihoods be crushed, with more than 2.25 million people out of work, losing income and facing the very real possibility of losing their homes. Yet Barbara Boxer is so out of touch that she continues to try to fool voters into believing her economic policies, including the stimulus, have worked,” said Carly for California Campaign Manager Marty Wilson. “The people of this state deserve a leader in Washington who will fight to get our economy moving forward again. Californians have the opportunity to make a change for California’s future by voting for new leadership in the U.S. Senate on Election Day – and that begins by retiring Barbara Boxer and electing Carly Fiorina on November 2.”