Well, the race is still within the margin of error and the Dems cannot really claim this race as won.

Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer still holds a small lead over Republican Carly Fiorina in California’s U.S. Senate race, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely Voters in the state.

Boxer, who is seeking a fourth six-year term, now earns 49% support to Fiorina’s 46%. Two percent (2%) prefer another candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.

Boxer posted a 48% to 46% lead a week ago. In spite of her powers as an incumbent and California’s strong Democratic leanings, Boxer’s been struggling to widen the gap all year. She’s held a small lead in every survey but one since February with 42% to 49% of the vote. Fiorina, a former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, has earned 38% to 47% support in those same surveys.

Exit question: Will the national GOP wave and GOTV ground operation propel Carly Fiorina to victory next Tuesday?

Unlikely, when you look at the sampling methods of the recent polls in a very large state as is California.

If you follow California Senate polling closely, you have to be feeling a little bit nauseated from the roller coaster ride you’ve been on.  Some polls are showing Senator Barbara Boxer with a comfortable 9-point lead and above 50 percent, while others are showing a much closer race.  One Republican pollster even shows Fiorina ahead.

What is going on here?  The answer is something I’ve discussed before:  Pollsters are having a devil of a time agreeing on what the electorate is going to look like

This chart above has changed a bit with the latest Survey USA poll having been released overnight. It is here. Their current breakdown is D:42%, R:34%, I:21%.

As you can see, the ratio of Democrats to Republican in the sample goes hand-in-glove with the size of Boxer’s edge.  More Democrats equals more Boxer votes.  In fact, the adjusted r-square is pretty nice — about .74.  These polls’ internals actually don’t disagree that much — most of them have both candidates losing about 10 percent of their respective bases, while Fiorina has a double-digit edge among independents.

So who is right?  Well, that’s the frustrating thing — we can’t definitively say.  But we can get some sense of history here.  The following table shows the exit poll results for 2008, 2006 and 2004, as well as the present early voting numbers:

As you can see, the pollsters showing a comfortable Boxer lead are showing electorates that are similar to 2008.  On the other hand, the pollsters who are showing a tight race see an electorate more like 2004 or 2006.

So, what does the race and polling come down to with less than a week to go?

As, I have said before, it comes down to turn out – who actually shows up to vote on election day. If the Republicans are motivated and all come out to vote for Carly Fiorina, Fiorina wins the independent minded voter who shows up and/or the Democratic base of ethnic voters and Labor fail to show, even a little – Fiorina wins.

If the Democrats all show up to vote, Boxer wins. After all, it is a numbers game and the Democrats far and away out number the Republicans.

The GOTV (Get Out the Vote) ground operations of the California GOP may very well decide this race.

A pretty obvious conclusion since they are spending the money.

It was the expenditure heard ’round the political world: The GOP is pouring $3 million into the race against Sen. Barbara Boxer on behalf of GOP nominee Carly Fiorina.

The news Monday that the National Republican Senatorial Committee planned to dump that much money into California, this late in the campaign, was enough to cause a double take. The NRSC was already in for $4.8 million in coordinated spending — making the nearly $8 million total expenditure in California the most the committee has publicly committed to any state this year and the most ever in California.

At the heart of the GOP investment is a belief that the race is much closer than Tuesday’s Public Policy Polling survey, which showed Boxer up 52-43, or last week’s Los Angeles Times poll that gave the incumbent an 8-point lead.

“For their turnout model to be accurate, it would have to mean a worse environment for Republicans than 2006,” a GOP operative familiar with the NRSC’s spending plans said of the Times survey. “We have two tracking polls that both show Carly only down 1 point and Boxer below 50, which is a bad place for an incumbent to be after so much spending.”

Recent polling also has convinced the GOP that voters are differentiating between Fiorina and gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman, who appears to be sinking in her race against former Gov. Jerry Brown.

“Carly can win even if Meg doesn’t win,” the operative said.

I, also, feel California voters may very well split their ballot and vote for Jerry Brown, the Democrat but hedge their bets and vote for Fiorina, the Republican. A sort of balancing, as it were. Besides, Carly Fiorina does not have the “Nanny” problem of Whitman and Boxer is, well, an unpopular figure – ma’am, i mean Senator.

There is a throw the bums out mentality even in Left Coast Blue California but voters just can’t vote for Meg – so they vote for Carly instead and send Babs to retirement.

I bet all of the next few polls show Fiorina within the margin of error and Boxer well be below 50 per cent – a disaster for an incumbent.

But, stay tuned as Carly mends from an infection and tries to heal up in time for last minute campaigning.

Anything can happen folks, as this race goes down to the wire.

This ad is part of a $3-million independent expenditure by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). Obviously, the ad targets California women voters a demographic which Carly Fiorina needs to do better according to numerous polls. The $3-million expenditure should guarantee statewide play throughout the last week of the campaign.

This morning’s Real Clear Politics poll average graph is above and the race continues to be a toss up, tied. The poll average table is here.

So, what does this mean for California voters?

Non-stop political ads from Barbara Boxer and Carly Fiorina over the next week.

There had been some uncertainty as to whether the Fiorina Campaign would be able to compete with Boxer on the number of ad impressions over the last week of the campaign but that concern has been laid to rest.

With outside groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce already pouring in millions to defeat California Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, the National Republican Senatorial Committee announced a $3-million independent expenditure for television ads in the final week of the campaign.

The committee, which rarely makes major expenditures in California, had already spent the maximum allowed — $4.8 million — in coordinated expenditures with GOP nominee Carly Fiorina’s campaign in what it views as a highly competitive race.

“This critical spending continues to demonstrate our confidence that the California Senate race is neck-in-neck thanks to Barbara Boxer’s out-of-touch, reckless Washington spending agenda,” committee spokeswoman Amber Marchand said in a statement.

The new independent expenditure comes after Fiorina announced she was putting another $1 million of her own money into the campaign, allowing her to match Boxer’s cash on hand for the final stretch.

It appears that Fiorina will be able to match the Boxer ad buys over the next seven days. This is bad news for Boxer.

With the polls so very close (also bad news for the incumbent Senator, Boxer), the ground operations of the California Republicans (GOTV), including the Meg Whitman for California Governor Campaign may very well decide this U.S. Senate race.

California U.S Senate candidate Carly Fiorina is “on air” with a new Fred Davis television ad.

From the press release:

As part of a continuing effort to highlight the stark contrast between incumbent senator Barbara Boxer’s failed tenure in Washington and Carly Fiorina’s commitment to common-sense problem solving, the Fiorina campaign today launched the fifth 30-second ad of its general election statewide television advertisement campaign, titled “Crushed.”

“Barbara Boxer’s legacy after 28 years of failed leadership in Washington is bleak, as Californians across the state have watched their livelihoods be crushed, with more than 2.25 million people out of work, losing income and facing the very real possibility of losing their homes. Yet Barbara Boxer is so out of touch that she continues to try to fool voters into believing her economic policies, including the stimulus, have worked,” said Carly for California Campaign Manager Marty Wilson. “The people of this state deserve a leader in Washington who will fight to get our economy moving forward again. Californians have the opportunity to make a change for California’s future by voting for new leadership in the U.S. Senate on Election Day – and that begins by retiring Barbara Boxer and electing Carly Fiorina on November 2.”