Flap’s Links and Comments for March 9th on 15:22

Posted Posted in Pinboard Links

These are my links for March 9th from 15:22 to 15:28:

  • California Census 2010: Where the Children Aren’t – Children are a disappearing presence in the Bay Area, the 2010 census shows, with slow growth or a net loss of the under-18 set in the region's nine counties, as families with young children move to areas with cheaper housing and better job opportunities. But diversity of the youth population is increasing as white and black families leave and are replaced by Asian and Latino families with young kids.

    The drop in the overall population of children in the Bay Area would have been greater if not for the increased numbers of two particular groups: Asians and Latinos. In several counties, in fact, the loss of black and white children was mostly balanced out by the increase of Asian and Latino children.

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    Not too many children in San Francisco with all of the gays who have migrated there either.

  • CA GOP issues formal invite to Jerry Brown: Come out from "behind your picnic table" and debate Norquist – In a move that ramps up a high profile battle of words over the state budget, the California State Republican Party has formally issued an invitation to Gov. Jerry Brown to "come out from your office picnic table" and attend the party's upcoming state convention in Sacramento — to debate anti-tax advocate Grover Norquist.

    We just got hold of the letter being delivered to Brown's office from state party chair Ron Nehring, who says Americans for Tax Reform President Norquist has already agreed to debate the governor, if it can be arranged at the three day state GOP convention scheduled March 18-20 at the Hyatt Regency in Sacramento. Democrats, including Brown and state party chair John Burton, have been engaged in a verbal tug of war with Norquist over the issue of a special election to let voters decide on tax extensions.

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    Jerry Brown just might do it but I would rather have John Burton since he would try to fight Grover after the word exchange. and, I would like to see that.

  • Will Another Dream Fade? Obama Should Endorse Same-Sex Marriages for Immigration Purposes – The way out of this inequity is the Uniting American Families Act (UAFA). UAFA would allow U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents to sponsor their same-sex partners for immigration to the United States. In the last Congress, UAFA was introduced in the House by Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) and Mike Honda (D-CA) and in the Senate by Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT). Over 120 co-sponsors signed on in House and more than 20 co-sponsors in the Senate.

    UAFA would amend the immigration laws by simply adding the term "permanent partner" in sections where "spouse" appears, thus ensuring that a non-citizen permanent partner may receive the same immigration benefits that a non-citizen spouse now receives.

    In the lame-duck session of Congress this past December, the DREAM Act that would have legalized undocumented youngsters who have graduated from high school in the United States went down in a disappointing defeat. The Obama Administration's late, but strong, support for the measure proved insufficient. With little hope for comprehensive immigration reform on the horizon, will the administration at the very least step forward to announce support for UAFA and get the ball rolling on this important effort? Let's hope so.

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    It is called the Defense of Marriage Act and unless it is repealed or SCOTUS declares it uncosntitutional, it is the law of the land.

    End of story.

    This legislation will never become law with a GOP House – thank goodness.

Flap’s Links and Comments for March 9th on 10:52

Posted Posted in Pinboard Links

These are my links for March 9th from 10:52 to 11:46:

  • California Census data will bring a big shift in Legislative and Congressional Districts – When state legislators drew new districts for themselves and their congressional colleagues in 2001, they were interested only in political impacts and largely ignored demographic changes revealed in the 2000 census.
    The bipartisan gerrymander was aimed at preserving the numerical status quo in both the 120-member Legislature and the 53-member congressional delegation by designating the partisan ownership of every district.

    The public's adverse reaction to the insider deal, however, led to a 2008 ballot measure that shifted legislative redistricting to an independent "citizens' commission" and a 2010 measure that added congressional seats to its duties.

    On Tuesday, the Census Bureau released the detailed 2010 census data that the commission will use to draw new legislative and congressional districts, as well as four Board of Equalization districts, and the numbers confirmed that big changes are in the air.

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    There will be some big shifts to the detriment of the dominant Democrats, especially in Northern California and the coastal areas.

  • Sarah Palin Would Base Presidential Campaign in Arizona – Like Goldwater in ’64? – A source tells Ben Smith that Sarah Palin would base her possible presidential campaign in Scottsdale, Arizona, close to where Bristol Palin recently bought a house.

    "Basing a campaign there would be a provocative rejection of any lingering political cost from those who connect her harsh rhetoric and Gabrielle Giffords' shooting — a traditional refusal to retreat. It's also the core of the politically contested, fast-growing new West. And it would also hark back, perhaps not to McCain, more a Washington figure than an Arizona one, but to what now stands as the iconic campaign for many base Republican voters: Goldwater '64

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    Sarah's polling numbers against Obama are not very good. She may be able to win a multi-way GOP primary in some states but that is probably the extent of her campaign.

President 2012: The First Map of Battleground States Updated

Posted 8 CommentsPosted in Census, Election 2012
election2010map Presidential Election 2012: The First 2012 Map of Battleground States
Back in November, I posted a first map of 2012 Presidential battleground states. Of course, this was before the census and a concomitant reapportionment.

Republican-leaning states will gain at least a half dozen House seats thanks to the 2010 census, which found the nations population growing more slowly than in past decades but still shifting to the South and West.

The Census Bureau announced Tuesday that the nation’s population on April 1 was 308,745,538, up from 281.4 million a decade ago. The growth rate for the past decade was 9.7 percent, the lowest since the Great Depression. The nation’s population grew by 13.2 percent from 1990 to 2000.

Michigan was the only state to lose population during the past decade. Nevada, with a 35 percent increase, was the fastest-growing state.

The new numbers are a boon for Republicans, with Texas leading the way among GOP-leaning states that will gain House seats, mostly at the Rust Belts expense. Following each once-a-decade census, the nation must reapportion the House’s 435 districts to make them roughly equal in population, with each state getting at least one seat.

That triggers an often contentious and partisan process in many states, which will draw new congressional district lines that can help or hurt either party.

In all, the census figures show a shift affecting 18 states taking effect when the 113th Congress takes office in 2013.

Texas will gain four new House seats, and Florida will gain two. Gaining one each are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington.

Now, we have some additional polling/party identification information which should also give us a clue as to the identity of 2012 Presidential KEY battleground states:

Watching the party identification polling will give us the trend toward or away from the incumbent Democratic President. Remembering Obama/Biden won 365 electoral votes Vs. McCain/Palin 173.

Looking at the states that lost Electoral Votes:

7hcefomukkzriiembmfzw95 2012 GOP Bonanza: All 10 States Losing Congressional Seats Tilt Democratic

And, the states that gained Electoral Votes:

ml1evzsnyusz6txglpmfia9 2012 GOP Bonanza: All 10 States Losing Congressional Seats Tilt Democratic

Before, I identified the key battleground states (pre-census release):

  • Ohio – 20 (electoral votes): -2 after reapportionment
  • Virginia – 13
  • Colorado – 9
  • Florida -27: +2 after reapportionment
  • Nevada – 5: +1 after reapportionment
  • Wisconsin -10
  • New Hampshire – 4
  • Indiana – 11
  • North Carolina – 15

And, I think, at least for now, pending any dramatic change in party identification I will stay with these states.

The question for the GOP will be: Who will be the best candidate in these nine states to match up against President Barack Obama?

2012 GOP Bonanza: All 10 States Losing Congressional Seats Tilt Democratic

Posted Posted in Census, GOP


And, 5 of the 8 states picking up congressional seats tilt to the GOP.

Plus, with the Republicans winning or holding 29 Governorships, the perfect storm for controlling the Congress over the decade is almost complete.
The full political implications of congressional seat losses in 10 Democratic states remain to be seen, and will in large part depend on the process of redistricting that will now get underway in each state. It is assumed that Democrats will lose some representation in the House as a net result of this process, but the precise way this will play out is not entirely clear. Similarly, although the majority of the states gaining seats are Republican in orientation, it is not clear whether the newly created House districts in each of those states will necessarily end up with a Republican representative, although it can be assumed that the net number of Republican seats in these states will increase.

The impact of reapportionment on the presidential election process is more straightforward. Traditionally blue states are losing electoral votes, while traditionally red states are gaining them. Various calculations have shown that Barack Obama would still have won the 2008 election even if the electoral votes were divided based on the new census apportionment. But the shift in population between states could give a Republican candidate just enough of an edge to bring victory in a close 2012 presidential race.

But, let’s see if the GOP can hold its majority. They have blown it before – remember 2006?

U.S. Census Shows Slow Population Growth and Likely Republican Party Gains

Posted Posted in Census, GOP

Utah gained one Congressional seat, adding 530,716 new residents since 2000, according to the 2010 census. Arches National Park, Moab, Utah. Photo By Flap

The 2010 census is out and the South and West are among the winning states.
Republican-leaning states will gain at least a half dozen House seats thanks to the 2010 census, which found the nation’s population growing more slowly than in past decades but still shifting to the South and West.

The Census Bureau announced Tuesday that the nation’s population on April 1 was 308,745,538, up from 281.4 million a decade ago. The growth rate for the past decade was 9.7 percent, the lowest since the Great Depression. The nation’s population grew by 13.2 percent from 1990 to 2000.

Michigan was the only state to lose population during the past decade. Nevada, with a 35 percent increase, was the fastest-growing state.

The new numbers are a boon for Republicans, with Texas leading the way among GOP-leaning states that will gain House seats, mostly at the Rust Belt’s expense. Following each once-a-decade census, the nation must reapportion the House’s 435 districts to make them roughly equal in population, with each state getting at least one seat.

That triggers an often contentious and partisan process in many states, which will draw new congressional district lines that can help or hurt either party.

In all, the census figures show a shift affecting 18 states taking effect when the 113th Congress takes office in 2013.

Texas will gain four new House seats, and Florida will gain two. Gaining one each are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington.

But, a lot of growth was from immigration and how the new people are assimilated, population growth accommodated (infrastructure provided) or if they can be are issues that will soon come to the forefront with the next Congress beginning next month.

The Rose Institute has an excellent analysis here.

California has picked up 10 Congressional seats since 1970, growing from 43 in the 1970s to 53 today. Seven of those ten came in one decade alone (after the 1990 census). California gained two districts in 1980, seven in 1990, and another seat in 2000. One contributor to California’s population surge between 1980 and 1990 was the Reagan administration’s large military build-up. The military growth boosted the California economy, which attracted immigration from throughout the country. Between 1980 and 1990, California’s population increased by about 6 million people. Alone among the otherwise high-growth southwestern states, in the past ten years California’s growth slowed to the national average.