President 2012: Should Paul Ryan Run for President?

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan, President 2012

House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) unveils the House Republican budget blueprint in the Capitol in Washington April 5, 2011

Yes, and the case for a duty call is obvious.

Jennifer Rubin makes the case as well.

In a very practical sense, the question for Ryan is: Why not give his party and the country six months (September 2011 to February 2012)? By then he’ll either have failed to catch fire or he’ll have a clear path to the presidential nomination. Six months. Twenty-four weeks. For a politician constantly at work in Congress, in town halls and in media appearances, that doesn’t sound like that much. (In fact, I would venture that his schedule is more rigorous now than the average presidential contender’s.)

You see, there is no good reason for Ryan to avoid a presidential run. Sometimes, if you don’t see the opening and seize it, a better one never comes along. Bill Clinton understood this in 1992.

Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie and Paul Ryan should all consider running for the Presidency. Obama is wounded and the GOP needs popular and articulate candidates.

Duty Calls.

President 2012: Huckabee is Out – Michele, Newt and Mitch In?

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Chris Christie, John Kasich, Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Scott Walker

Yeah, particularly in Iowa.

The presidential nominating process is a lot like the US Open tennis tournament. There is a final (the Republican v. Obama), a semifinal (the top conservative against the top moderate for the GOP nomination) and a quarter final (the conservatives against each other and the moderates competing together for the right to enter the semis).

Mitt Romney and Donald Trump are centrists. Businessmen, economic growth free market types who will vie with each other for the moderate nomination. In 2008, Romney fought and lost to Huckabee for the conservative nod to oppose McCain. But, because of his health care position, he now has to fight it out on the moderate court.

Mike Huckabee’s withdrawal opens the way on the right court for Gingrich, Bachmann, and Daniels. Had Mike run, he would have easily carried the day and faced Romney/Trump for the nomination. But, with Mike out, it’s an open field.

Bachmann has the most to gain from Huckabee’s withdrawal. Polling shows that the Tea Party types and the evangelicals are more or less the same people. With Mike out, Michele has a clear shot at their support (once they get over Herman Cain and Ron Paul, neither of whom can win — and Paul shouldn’t win). As the odd-woman-out dissenting from the Boehner deals with Obama, holding out for fiscal conservatism and tough Republican bargaining, she can pick up a lot of ground in a hurry.

Gingrich’s announcement puts the onus on him to dispel the negatives that dog his campaign. All agree that he would be the best opponent to Obama in a debate and that he is the brightest, best candidate would have. But many are scared off because of the negatives. He has six months to show them that they are wrong.

And then there is Mitch Daniels, potentially, the conservative establishment’s answer to Romney. Despite an absence of charisma, his extraordinary record as governor puts him right in the thick of the hunt for the nomination. He, along with his supporters (Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Chris Christie of New Jersey, and John Kasich of Ohio), have walked the walk not just talked the talk. His candidacy is a most attractive one.

And, if Sarah Palin decides to come in now, I would say the battle for the social conservatives will really heat up.

Newt Gingrich with his personal baggage should be used as a foil against Obama but he is unelectable – too old and too damaged.

Mitt Romney will have to compete in Iowa and will probably take a loss there even with Huckabee not in the race. Romney will be vulnerable in South Carolina too –then on to Florida.

Exit question: Will Mitch Daniels with Scott Walker, John Kasich and Chris Christie endorsing him be able to beat Michele Bachmann in Iowa?

President 2012 Poll Watch: 65% will Not Vote for Sarah Palin, 64% Will Not Vote for Donald Trump

Posted 2 CommentsPosted in Chris Christie, Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
According to the latest Gallup Poll.
More than 6 in 10 registered voters nationwide say they would definitely not vote for Donald Trump or Sarah Palin for president in 2012, significantly more than say the same about possible Republican candidates Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, or about President Barack Obama.

This is not really surprising but I doubt it means much. I doubt Sarah Palin or Donald Trump will be candidates for the GOP nomination for President.

What is most interesting to me is that 46% of Americans polled say they will NOT vote for President Obama which is about the same for Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney.

While the Donald Trump show has been amuzing the past few weeks, it has served as an outlet for Americans who have decided that they do not wish to re-elect President Obama. There are sufficient Republican canddates in Huckabee and Romney who can make a credible run against the President. I, also believe, there will be other candidates who will emerge within the next 30-60 days who have accomplished records that can also be viewed as viable candidates, including Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie and Paul Ryan.

Trump’s attention-grabbing, high-visibility statements and his ability to generate large amounts of news coverage cut two ways. On the one hand, Trump has undeniably dominated news coverage of the Republican race in the last several weeks, vaulting him into the middle of political and election news discussion and coverage. On the other hand, Trump’s ability to generate publicity apparently has its costs, as his image has turned more negative and as more than 6 in 10 voters across the country already say they would definitely not vote for him.

Trump also faces apparent obstacles in his efforts to gain the Republican nomination, should he decide to run. Almost half of Republican registered voters at this point say they would definitely not vote for him, the highest of any of the four possible GOP candidates measured in this survey.

President 2012 Poll Watch: Barack Obama 48% Vs. Mike Huckabee 43%, Barack Obama 47% Vs. Mitt Romney 41%

Posted Posted in Barack Obama, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Rand Paul, Sarah Palin

Chart from Pollster
According to the latest PPP Poll.

Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

  • President Barack Obama – 47% Vs. 48%

GOP Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

  • Mike Huckabee – 36% Vs. 42%
  • Mitt Romney – 32% Vs. 43%
  • Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 61%
  • Newt Gingrich – 28% vs. 55%
  • Rand Paul – 26% Vs. 45%
  • Chris Christie – 28% Vs. 30%

General Election Head to Head:

  • Obama – 48% Vs. Huckabee – 43%
  • Obama – 47% Vs. Romney 41%
  • Obama – 54% Vs. Palin – 36%
  • Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 38%
  • Obama – 48% Vs. Paul – 38%
  • Obama – 48% Vs Christie – 39%

Again, this is an aggregate national poll but it shows a couple of things:

  • Obama has a negative approval rating
  • This GOP candidate field is weak against the President in the general election.

Additionally, President Obama is doing well with independent voters.

The president wins by racking up the independent vote by double-digit margins against everyone but Christie, who holds him to a seven-point advantage. The others trail with this group by ten (Huckabee and Romney) to a whopping 28 points (Palin). Obama also pads his leads by getting double-digit GOP support against Gingrich and Palin.

If the GOP wants to beat Obama in 2012, they had better develop a better candidate field, consolidate behind him or her and be ready to hit the ground running after Labor Day 2011. The delay in the GOP selection process may allow say a Rep. Paul Ryan or Governor Mitch Daniels to jump into the field and become the fresh face of the GOP.

The GOP needs such a candidate, if they wish to win next year.

President 2012 Poll Watch: President Obama as a Strong Leader = Not So Much

Posted Posted in Barack Obama, Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, Polling, President 2012

According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Americans have grown increasingly less likely to view President Obama as a strong and decisive leader since he took office. Roughly half now believe this aptly describes, him compared with 60% a year ago and 73% in April 2009.

And, only 36% say Obama has a clear plan for solving America’s problems.

So, what does this mean?

Throughout this year in office, President Obama’s ratings on several dimensions, including job approval and most personal characteristics, trended downward, but have since more or less stabilized. One notable exception to that general pattern is perception of the president as a strong and decisive leader, which has continued to drop, and now only a slim majority of Americans rate him positively in this regard.

Given the timing of the two most recent ratings on Obama as a strong and decisive leader (March 2010 and 2011), it is not clear how much the recent events in the Middle East have contributed to this perception. Obama’s overall job approval rating in Gallup Daily tracking has fluctuated since mid-March, roughly coinciding with the military campaign in Libya. For the week of March 21-27, though, Obama averaged 45% approval and 47% disapproval, his worst since December.

Moreover, Obama’s ratings for handling the situations in Libya and Egypt have not been stellar but also not poor. In any case, much of the 2011 news coverage has focused on major international events and President Obama’s response to these events has been a key element of that coverage.

Politically, it means the President is vulnerable – if the Republicans can get their act together and nominate a strong leader = hello Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels or New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.