Flap’s Links and Comments for March 9th on 11:53

Posted Posted in Pinboard Links

These are my links for March 9th from 11:53 to 12:44:

  • Todd Spitzer Set to Announce Run for Supervisor Seat – Will Chuck DeVore Run – Todd Spitzer, a former OC prosecutor, state assemblyman and county supervisor, will announce later today his intention to run for his former seat on the Orange County Board of Supervisors.
    That seat, now held by County Supervisor Bill Campbell, opens up next year.
    Spitzer has told supporters that he's running for the seat because he has the experience to hit the ground running and help the county manage it's way through one of the toughest economic conditions in history.
    Spitzer's run will be well-funded — he has more than $1 million in his state assembly campaign accounts that can be transferred for use in a local race.
    Spitzer made news last year when he was fired by as assistant district attorney by District Attorney Tony Rackauckas. The episode became a political firestorm after it was revealed that Spitzer was fired for looking into a case being handled by Orange County Public Administrator/Public Guardian John Williams.
    The Board of Supervisors has since hired an executive to take Williams' responsibilities as public administrator and stripped him of his public guardian job. Supervisors are currently in negotiations with Williams regarding his resignation.
    Spitzer's early endorsements include: Orange Mayor Carolyn Cavecche (who had been rumored as a front runner for the Third District seat), Sheriff Sandra Hutchens supervisors Pate Bates and Janet Nguyen and Orange County Business Council President and CEO Lucy Dunn.

    =======

    Todd Spitzer has some endorsements and $1 million in the bank. will DeVore want to buck Spitzer in a bruising campaign?

  • MO-Sen: Claire McCaskill spent $76K in Public Funds on private plane flights – Sen. Claire McCaskill has been aggressive in promoting oversight and transparency for congressional travel, introducing a reform bill that cracks down on overseas travel for lawmakers.

    But when it comes to her own domestic flights, the Missouri Democrat has enjoyed friendly skies: She’s spent nearly $76,000 in public funds since 2007 to fly on a charter plane she co-owns with her husband and other investors, a POLITICO analysis of public records show.

    As a senator, McCaskill has flown at least 89 flights chartered by Sunset Cove Associates LLC — a company incorporated in 2002 by her husband, St. Louis businessman Joe Shepard, according to records kept by the Missouri Secretary of State’s Office. All of those flights were paid for from McCaskill’s Senate office budget, raising questions about whether the first-term senator and her husband are using public dollars to partially subsidize their aircraft.

    ===============

    Probably no Ethics hearings here and she reimbursed the funds, but there will be political blowback.

  • President 2012: Newt Gingrich planning May presidential announcement – In a conference call Wednesday with former staffers and supporters former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said "we are leaning toward a yes" on a presidential run, CNN has learned.
    Leaning heavily.

    He revealed he hopes to announce a presidential bid in late May at noon in front of Philadelphia's Independence Hall. He asked the group for help building a national audience for that event on the internet and through local media.
    In response to a question, Gingrich told the group "corporate PACs can give $5,000 and obviously we'd be thrilled to have as many of them sign up as early as possible."
    In an apparent reference to the Contract with America that helped make him speaker in the 1990s he told the group "the campaign I want to build would have a contract in late September of 12" and help "build the party across the board."
    Several times Gingrich pointed out that "for legal reasons" he can't say too much – "we are still in the exploratory phase," but he has lined up the beginning of a campaign rollout. He expects former Georgia Senator Zell Miller to be a co-chair "once we put the campaign together." He says his campaign would be headquartered in Atlanta.
    He also said he is talking to and trying to recruit supporters in key states, such as he did in Iowa earlier this week. A Gingrich aide said he's planning direct mail solicitations starting next week and telemarketing efforts beginning this week.
    In addition to doing well in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, Gingrich said he hopes to "seal off Georgia as a favorite son." He added that given the way primary timing may shake out "Florida may suddenly loom very, very large.

    ===============

    No big surprise but an announcement after the May 2nd Presidential debate which may as well be postponed since there will be nobody participating.

Flap’s Links and Comments for March 8th from 10:21 to 10:46

Posted Posted in Pinboard Links

These are my links for March 8th from 10:21 to 10:46:

  • Is Chuck DeVore Making A Comeback in OC 3rd Supervisoral District? – The FlashReport.org today released an intriguing poll of the 3rd Supervisor District that revealed some surprising results.

    There are, as yet, no definitively declared candidates. The closest is former 3rd District Supervisor Todd Spitzer. Couple of weeks ago, I saw an e-mail from a wealthy donor soliciting support for Spitzer and stating he would be announcing about now, but no word as yet.

    Former Assemblyman and U.S. Senate candidate Chuck DeVore is actively looking at the race, as well.

    But let’s get to the poll, conducted for FR by SmithJohnson Research. The survey was conducted March 1-2 of 300 registered voters in the 3rd District. The margin of error is 5.6%.

    The poll tests a five-candidate field of Spitzer, DeVore, Orange Mayor Carolyn Cavecche, Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang and Anaheim Councilman Harry Sidhu but the most interesting stuff comes from the one-on-one poll testing of a Spitzer-DeVore contest.

    +++++++

    This will be a race to watch.

  • Sen. John McCain back fundraising in California this week – Former 2008 presidential candidate John McCain, a strong supporter of gubernatorial hopeful Meg Whitman, is back fundraising in the Bay Area this month — this time at a pricey benefit to fund campaigns to win a 2012 Republican majority in the U.S. Senate.

    The Arizona U.S. Senator stars at a what's being touted as "an intimate roundtable breakfast" on March 22 for the National Republican Senatorial Committee in the venture capital enclave of Menlo Park.

    The invites specifically say the purpose of the McCain fundraising is "to gain a majority in the Senate in 2012!"

    McCain's CA visit comes the weekend after the state GOP's big convention in Sacramento, where Mississipi Gov. Haley Barbour will deliver the Saturday night keynote address; but so far, McCain has no announced plans to visit the 3-day statewdie party gathering starting March 18.

    +++++++

    The California ATM foe the GOP has already started a new cycle

  • California Tax and Budget Debate – Fact, Fancy and Fudges – As the rhetoric heats up, it may be useful to explore some of the main talking points.

    Anti-tax groups contend that voting to place taxes before voters would violate GOP legislators' no-new-taxes pledges. There is, however, an obvious difference between enacting taxes directly and placing them on the ballot. And since anti-tax groups routinely insist that taxes should require voter approval, chalk up one for hypocrisy.

    Likewise, the anti-tax groups also insist that voters have already spoken when they rejected a 2009 budget package that would have kept the temporary taxes in place for a longer period.

    Wrong. The length of the income, sales and car tax increases was not directly before voters in 2009; the election hinged largely on other issues.

    Brown and supporters of the taxes stress that they are temporary – an additional five years – and that the proceeds would go to local governments and schools.

    In fact, however, they would go to local agencies only because those agencies would be taking on functions that are being shifted from the state, so the net effect of the added revenues would be to take pressure off the state budget.

    The argument that the taxes would be temporary is also suspect, since under Brown's plan the state would be constitutionally obligated to pay for the programmatic shifts to local governments even after the tax extensions expired.

    A permanent obligation financed by a temporary revenue stream is folly; it's a better than 50-50 bet that were Brown's plan adopted, five years later he or his successor would be seeking to extend the taxes again or make them permanent.

    Brown also contends that the tax extensions would fill only half the budget hole, with sharp spending cuts, especially in health and welfare, filling the rest.

    But many of the cuts are actually funding shifts; Democrats are scaling back the real cuts and many of them would either require federal waivers, be subject to litigation, or both.

    +++++++++

    The GOP doesn't want to raise taxes and wants cuts in California's State Budget.

    Jerry Brown and the Democrats don't want to cut spending and wish to shift responsibilities and funding tothe cities and counties who have no easy way to pay for them.

    Looks like a stalemate to me.

Chuck DeVore to Challenge Senator Dianne Feinstein in 2012?

Posted Posted in Chuck DeVore, Dianne Feinstein
chuckdevoretweets CA Sen: Chuck DeVore Preparing to Run for Irvine City Council?

Termed out California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore

Yes, and I received an e-mail from Chuckles last week saying he will be running for something in 2012 and asking for money to get his California state campaign account out of debt.

If he thinks he can beat long time Senator Dianne Feinstein who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, he is suffering from delusions of grandeur. Even the LEFT is skeptical and they are not greats fans of DiFi.

Despite getting only a small vote share in the GOP Senate primary this year (as conservatives decided to go with the slightly-more-electable Carly Fiorina), Chuck DeVore is talking Senate again, for 2012, when Dianne Feinstein will presumably run for re-election. Or is he? All he’s saying is that he’s likely to run in 2012, but hasn’t decided what office. Senate is the only thing that’s available, though, which makes his statement seem kind of strange (unless he’s talking about trying to rejoin the state Assembly). If Barbara Boxer could still win by 10 points in a terrible year, the more-popular Feinstein in a presidential year is an even more daunting target, meaning that DeVore may be the only prominent GOPer crazy enough to take on the task.

CA-Sen Poll Watch: Carly Fiorina Up Big With 54%, Tom Campbell 19%, Chuck DeVore 16%

Posted 3 CommentsPosted in Carly Fiorina, Chuck DeVore, Tom Campbell

Carly Fiorina, a candidate for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate, speaks to reporters in front of the county building Monday, June 7, 2010 in San Diego. At left, San Diego city council member Carl DeMaio looks on, with Escondido Mayor Lori Holt Pfeiler, right. Fiorina is battling former Congressman Tom Campbell and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore for the opportunity to challenge incumbent, Democrat Barbara Boxer. AP Photo

The latest and final Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies poll has Carly Fiorina up big.
Looking at the changes in the US Senate contest, Carly Fiorina’s campaign has increased her support by 10 points, up from 44%, Tom Campbell has dropped 2 points from 21% to 19% and Chuck Devore has increased by 2 points, up from 14%. Other candidate support has decreased 2 points to 5%, and undecided voters has decreased 8 points from 14%.

Here is the composite Pollster graph:

This race is over.

Put a fork in Chuck DeVore and Tom Campbell – they are done.

Tom Campbell can make plans to go back to Chapman Law School and Chuck DeVore (the termed out California Assemblyman) can run for the City of Irvine Mayor or City Council.

Bring on Barbara Boxer………

CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina Takes Big Lead Over Tom Campbell and Chuck DeVore is Toast

Posted Posted in Carly Fiorina, Chuck DeVore, Tom Campbell
senaterepublicans CA-Sen Poll Watch: Campbell 32.6% Fiorina 28.2%   DeVore 15.3%

California U.S. Senate candidates Tom Campbell, Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore

Graphic courtesy of Calbuzz

Yes, a fairly substantial lead that has been sustained now in three recent surveys.

A new Magellan Strategies poll in California confirms other recent surveys which show Carly Fiorina (R) has surged into the lead for the Republican Senate nomination.

Fiorina leads with 44%, while Tom Campbell (R) is at 21% and Chuck DeVore is at 14%.

The poll:

Obviously, Carly Fiorina has SURGED into a convincing lead as California voters participate in early and absentee ballot voting.

Survey results from the US Senate ballot test show Carly Fiorina with a 23 point lead over former Congressman Tom Campbell 44% to 21% and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore with 14%. Seven percent support another candidate, and 14% of voters are undecided. Support for Carly Fiorina has surged 24 points since our last survey on February 25th from 20% to 44%, and Tom Campbell’s support has declined 12 points from 33% to 21%. Chuck DeVore has made a small gain among men, increasing his support by 3 points from 11% to 14%.

Looks like Tom Campbell is collapsing as Independent Expenditure Committees run ads against him and Chuck Devore is a NEVER-WAS. With DeVore at only 7 points above another candidate and 30 points behind Fiorina, his candidacy is TOAST.

But, the race is fluid – so stay tuned……


CA-Sen Poll Watch: Carly Fiorina SURGES Into the Lead and Chuck DeVore Becomes An “Other”

Posted Posted in Carly Fiorina, Chuck DeVore, Tom Campbell


From the latest Survey USA Poll

This is hilarious. LOST ended last night but “The Others” are still around. Namely IT is California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore who is polling so low that ABC News Los Angeles does not name him anymore.

In the meantime, Carly Fiorina has SURGED to a commanding lead in this race.

CA Republicans Whitman & Fiorina Surge; Air Goes Out of Poizner Statehouse Balloon; Campbell’s Train to DC Stalls: California’s Republican primary contests for Governor and US Senator have sea-sawed, according to new SurveyUSA polling conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno.

In the Republican primary for US Senator, support for former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is up sharply in the past 2 weeks, from 24% on 05/10/10 to 46% today 05/24/10. Fiorina’s support has more than doubled among women, seniors, Hispanics, the less educated, and in the Inland Empire. During these 2 weeks, Former Congressman Tom Campbell’s support dropped 12 points, from 35% on 05/10/10 to 23% today 05/24/10.

Looks like DeVore’s electoral support will end up less than 20 per cent (14 % in this poll). Tom Campbell has collapsed into the 20th percentile while Carly Fiorina gathers up the rest.

Plus, Carly is continuing her heavy advertising media blitz, including television.

Looks like a strong finish for the former Hewlett-Packard CEO.