Flap’s California Primary Election Ballot Recommendations

Posted Posted in Election 2012

There is an election in California today (remember except for the Presidential race, the top two vote getters go to the November general election run-off) and here are my picks:

  • President of the United States – Mitt Romney
  • United States Senate – Dianne Feinstein. There is NO Republican candidate that I could possibly recommend voting for over Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Feinstein.
  • California State Senate – Todd Zink
  • California Assembly – Jeff Gorell
  • California Proposition 28 Term Limits – No
  • California Proposition 29 Tobacco Tax – No

The polls are open until 8 PM tonight.

Please exercise your right to vote.

Poll Watch: Congressional Approval at 15%

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Congress, Election 2012, Polling

According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Congressional job approval is now 15%, up slightly from the record-tying low of 13% recorded in August, while disapproval is 82%, compared with 84% last month.

These results are based on interviews conducted in a Sept. 8-11 Gallup poll, as President Barack Obama urged Congress to pass his newly announced major jobs plan legislation and amid news coverage of the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Gallup has recorded only three measures lower than this month’s rating of 15%, although Americans have never responded very positively when asked to rate Congress. The average approval rating since Gallup first began asking Americans to rate Congress in 1974 is 34%. Congressional job approval has generally drifted downward since it reached 39% in March 2009, shortly after President Obama took office. The average congressional job approval rating for 2010 was 19%.

Last month’s 13% approval tied the record low from December 2010. The highest congressional job approval rating measured by Gallup came in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, with a single reading of 84% in October 2001.

I would not want to be an incumbent Representative running next year, period.

Day By Day July 30, 2011 – Principles Balance

Posted Posted in Day By Day, Election 2012

Day By Day by Chris Muir

The American public are sick of the discourse coming from DC on the debt-limit crisis. They are saying a POX to all of the incumbents – both Democrats and Republicans.

Americans are finally understanding that the POLS in Washington and their state Capitols are addicted to spending. They also understand that the debt is ruining this country.

The 2012 election WILL be the intervention.


The Day By Day Archive

Poll Watch: U.S. Economic Confidence Deteriorates in Early June – Approaches 2011 Weekly Low

Posted 1 CommentPosted in American Economy, Election 2012, Polling

According to the latest Gallup Poll.
A sharp deterioration in the jobs outlook and six straight weeks of Wall Street declines sent Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy plunging to an average of -35 during the week ending June 12 — a decline of nine percentage points from two weeks ago, and six points worse than it was in the same week a year ago. Economic confidence is now approaching a 2011 weekly low.

I can tell you the economy is very poor in Southern California with many of my friends worried about their jobs. Many have been furloughed this past year or taken pay and/or benefits cuts.

And, polling shows economic expectations are worsening.

The graph:

Nearly half of Americans rated economic conditions as poor last week.

So, what does this all mean?

The American economy WILL be the PRIME issue as we go into the 2012 Presidential election cycle. It is all about the economy and American voters will take out their wrath on the POLS.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence measure surged in early May, coincident with the bump in presidential approval after the death of bin Laden. However, the bin Laden “halo effect” on economic confidence has dissipated in early June, as economic news has become increasingly negative.

Unemployment and underemployment as measured by Gallup have shown no improvement compared with a year ago. In this regard, the government’s job numbers have moved closer to Gallup’s numbers as the U.S. unemployment rate as reported by the BLS worsened from 8.8% in March to 9.0% in April and 9.1% in May.

The sharp drop in economic confidence in early June is consistent with the deterioration in the jobs situation, six consecutive weeks of decline on Wall Street, and fears of a global economic slowdown. Even a recent decline in gas prices to $3.78 a gallon has not been enough to offset the decline in consumer optimism — possibly in part because overall pump prices remain more than $1 per gallon higher than they were a year ago.

The key question going forward is whether the current economic soft patch is going to be modest and transitory or something more significant. That two out of three Americans say the U.S. economy is “getting worse” — approaching the high for the year — suggests many consumers may see something more significant coming in terms of a summer slowdown.

Poll Watch: Americans Continue Anti-Incumbent Mood Against Congress

Posted Posted in Congress, Election 2012, Polling

According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Twenty-eight percent of U.S. registered voters say most members of Congress deserve re-election, tying the low point in the trend set last year, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll.

In early May, Gallup found 24% of Americans approving of the job Congress is doing overall, which reflected a rally in support after the death of Osama bin Laden. Congress’ approval rating had been below 20% in March and April. Nevertheless, voters’ views of Congress in 2011 — in terms of both approval and support for most members’ re-election — are no better than they were last year, despite the great turnover in the 2010 elections that led to Republicans’ taking control of the House of Representatives.

Since 1992, Gallup has typically found more voters saying most members of Congress do not deserve re-election than saying they do. Generally, when higher percentages of voters express these anti-incumbent sentiments, as in 1992, 1994, 2006, and 2010, there is much change in Congress’ membership at the next election.

Why, am I not surprised?

The American economy continues in the dire straights and people will blame their elected representatives in Congress and the President

What is interesting is voter’s thoughts about their own Members of Congress.

Voters are more charitable toward their own Representative with 57% saying that he or she deserves re-election – only 34% say they do not.

So, what does this all mean?

The anti-incumbent mood that led to sweeping changes in Congress after the 2010 elections persists, and the accompanying change in House leadership has not fundamentally altered the way Americans view Congress. Thus, incumbents remain vulnerable heading into the 2012 election cycle, though perhaps not quite as vulnerable as in 2010, given that voters are now more inclined to say their own member deserves re-election.

All incumbent members of the House will be running in newly drawn districts in 2012, further adding to the uncertainty about their future. But significant turnover in Congress may be the “new normal” pattern, given that it has occurred in each of the last three congressional elections.

I would say if I were a new Republican Congressman, I would run hard in their district and not take anything for granted. Voters remain unhappy and will vote you out, if they perceive you are representing yourself and not your constituents.