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President 2012 GOP Florida Poll Watch: Romney 51% Vs. Obama 43% Or Perry 46% Vs. Obama 45%
The 2008 Presidential Electoral College Results
According to the latest Sachs/Masson-Dixon Florida Poll.A new Sachs/Mason-Dixon Florida Poll finds Barack Obama trailing Mitt Romney in America’s biggest battleground and in a dead heat with Texas Gov. Rick Perry among Republicans.
“Unlike 2008, if the election were held today, President Obama would face a stiffer headwind to hold onto Florida and its 29 electoral votes against a top-tier Republican challenger – and that could cost him reelection,” said Ron Sachs, President of Ron Sachs Communications. “Judging by the poll, President Obama’s success in 2008 will be more difficult to duplicate in 2012. The Presidency will go to the candidate with the message that resonates with Florida’s unique and diverse population and the resources to ensure that message is received by voters across the state.”
Among the findings of the August Sachs/Mason-Dixon Florida Poll:
- 51 percent of Floridians would vote for Governor Romney compared to 43 percent for President Obama;
- In a hypothetical matchup with Texas Governor Rick Perry, Perry leads with 46 percent to Obama’s 45 percent
- President Obama leads Congresswoman Michele Bachmann 46 percent to 44 percent
- 41 percent of Floridians approve of President Obama’s job performance while 56 percent disapprove. Fifty five percent of independents disapprove
The GOP Presidential field is looking good in Florida. If they can avoid a messy primary election, then it looks likely for a 29 vote pick up in the Electoral College.
Here is the primary breakdown:
- Mitt Romney 28%
- Rick Perry 21%
- Michelle Bachman 13%
- Herman Cain 7%
- Newt Gingrich 5%
- Ron Paul 4%
- Rick Santorum 2%
- Jon Huntsman –
- Someone else 3%
- Undecided 17%
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President 2012: Start Gaming the Electoral College
The 2008 Presidential Electoral College Results
So, start gaming the 2012 Presidential election with an interactive website.Check it out here and see what you can predict.
Remember it takes 270 Electoral College Votes to win the White House.
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President 2012: The Electoral College Map
Electoral College vote map of Larry Sabato
Larry Sabato, Director of the Univwersity of Virginia Center for Politics is out today with his map of the key battleground states for the Presidential race of 2012.With 18 months to go until November 2012, there is exactly one use for a current projection of the 2012 Electoral College results. This is merely a baseline from which we can judge more reliable projections made closer to the election. Where did we start–before we knew the identity of the Republican nominee for president, the state of the economy in fall 2012 and many other critical facts?
Sabato’s map is pretty much the conventional wisdom which I wrote about previously. And, even previously here.
I think we can say that from this poll that these states:
- Ohio – 20 (electoral votes): -2 after reapportionment
- Virginia – 13
- Colorado – 9
- Florida -27: +2 after reapportionment
- Nevada – 5: +1 after reapportionment
- Wisconsin -10
- New Hampshire – 4
- Indiana – 11
- North Carolina – 15
and add in Pennyslvania -20: -1 after reapportionment – will be in the competitive range, if the GOP nominates the RIGHT candidate.
If all of the key battleground states listed above were to flip to the Republican candidate a total of 135 electoral votes would shift. The GOP candidate would win 305 Electoral votes Vs. 230 for Obama (provided Obama wins all of the states he won in 2008). 270 votes are needed to win.
But, let’s look at Sabato’s numbers:
If you INCLUDE the “Leans” states with the “Likely” and “Safe,” the numbers are as follows:
- 247 Democratic EVs
- 180 Republican EVs
- 111 Undecided
If you DO NOT INCLUDE the “Leans” states, i.e., just counting “Likely” and “Safe,” the numbers are as follows:
- 196 Democratic EVs
- 170 Republican EVs
- 172 Undecided
The only disagreements I have with Sabato are his assessments of Iowa, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Those states may be in play and if I had to pick one it would be Wisconsin.
Which states do I think will be the hardest fought?
- Colorado, Virginia, Florida and North Carolina
Which state will most likely flip to the GOP?
- Indiana
So, there you have the Presidential race in a nutshell.
The race will be concentrated in only a few states, where except for Florida the media buys will be fairly inexpensive. So, all of this talk about President Obama and his $1 Billion campaign is a lot of hot air. The GOP nominee will not need to raise as much to be competitive in the key battleground states.
But, organization is key and if the GOP wants to win, they must select a nominee who will be competitive in these few states. Looks to me that Mitt Romney, Mitch Daniels, Mike Huckabee will fit the bill. The others – not so much.
But, stay tuned……
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Why Howard Dean and Barack Obama Wish to Eliminate the Electoral College
Graphic Courtesy of Electoral-Vote.com
Jim Geraghty has why the Democrats want to change how the President is elected.
I wonder if we’re witnessing a new Democratic strategy for well beyond the 2008 election — scrap the electoral college (a challenge, obviously) and nominate a candidate who can “run up” the vote totals in the areas Democrats already run well — big cities and university towns.
And, the GOP response to any CHANGE would be to insist that states go to proportional allocation of electoral college votes by Congressional district. This would yield the status quo to a GOP advantage. A case in point would be California.
The Democrats can WISH. However, a Constitutional amendment would be difficult and met with fierce GOP resistance.
By the way, did you look at the graphic above?
The real reason for the change?
Barack Obama, today, is losing the Presidency in the Electoral College.
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Hillary Clinton Outperforms Barack Obama in Electoral College Vs. McCain
Karl Rove and Company have the maps but the methodology is suspect. But, the conclusion is the same and it is really a no-brainer.
The Conclusion:
John McCain matches up better in the Electoral College with Barack Obama than with Hillary Clinton. But, tell this to the Democrat Superdelegates who will roll over for the Messiah Obama after the June 3rd primary elections.
Hillary WILL try.