-
President 2012 Iowa Poll Watch: Obama 49% Vs. Romney 40%, Obama 55% Vs. Palin 35%
Electoral College vote map of Larry Sabato
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:
- President Barack Obama – 49% Vs. 46%
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Newt Gingrich – 19% vs. 63%
- Sarah Palin – 29% Vs. 63%
- Mitt Romney – 35% Vs. 47%
- Tim Pawlenty – 25% Vs. 41%
- Herman Cain – 20% vs. 40%
General Election Head to Head:
- Obama – 54% Vs. Gingrich – 33%
- Obama – 55% Vs. Palin – 35%
- Obama – 49% Vs. Romney – 40%
- Obama – 49% Vs. Pawlenty – 37%
- Obama – 50% Vs. Cain – 32%
Although President Obama is doing better in Iowa than the past polling period, his job approval ratings still lag. Obviously, Iowa voters are not happy with the current GOP Presidential field and they all perform less than John McCain in 2008.
When PPP polled Iowa in mid-April Barack Obama had negative approval numbers, was tied with Mike Huckabee, and led Mitt Romney by only 4 points in a state that he won by 10 points against John McCain in 2008. Now six weeks later Obama’s fortunes in the state have shifted dramatically, symbolizing the uptick in his political fortunes we’ve seen throughout the country in the month since the killing of Osama bin Laden. He now has positive approval numbers, doesn’t have to worry about Huckabee anymore, and has built his lead over Romney to a 9 point margin similar to what he won the last time around.
Also, Iowa is NOT considered by many to be a KEY battleground state that the GOP will need to beat Obama in the Electoral College. See the list here.
Obama’s approval numbers in Iowa aren’t that strong and it would certainly be premature to declare 17 months out from the election that he’ll win the state again. But the numbers here are another reminder that the weak Republican field is his greatest ally as he moves toward reelection, and that the GOP will have to come up with a stronger candidate to have a serious chance of defeating Obama next year.
-
Chris Christie, Herman Cain, Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Paul Ryan, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Cain 15% Palin 15% Gingrich 12%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Newt Gingrich – 39% Vs. 41%
- Sarah Palin – 59% Vs. 31%
- Mitt Romney – 51% Vs. 34%
- Tim Pawlenty – 48% Vs. 18%
- Herman Cain – 38% Vs. 24% Vs Not Sure = 38%
- Michele Bachmann – 53% Vs. 16%
- Jeb Bush – 51% Vs. 20%
- Ron Paul – 42% Vs. 29%
- Rick Santorum – 29% Vs. 18% Vs. Not Sure = 53%
- Rudy Giuliani – 49% Vs. 31%
- Donald Trump – 28% vs. 56%
- Jon Huntsman – 7% Vs. 23% Vs. Not Sure = 70%
- Chris Christie – 42% Vs. 12% Vs. Not Sure = 46%
- Rick Perry – 21% Vs. 16% Vs. Not Sure = 63%
- Paul Ryan – 42% Vs. 14% Vs. Not Sure = 45%
GOP Primary Caucus Head to Head:
Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next year?- Romney – 21%
- Palin – 15%
- Cain – 15%
- Gingrich -12%
- Pawlenty – 10%
- Ron Paul – 8%
- Jon Huntsman – 0%
If Sarah Palin does not run then?
- Romney – 26%
- Cain – 16%
- Gingrich – 15%
- Bachmann – 14%
- Pawlenty – 10%
- Paul – 11%
- Huntsman – 1%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 48% Vs. Palin – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 11%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 41% Vs. Pawlenty – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 18%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 48% Vs. Cain – 34% Vs. Not Sure = 19%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Romney – 46% Vs. Bachmann – 38% Vs. Not Sure = 16%
Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa ever since Mike Huckabee exited the race, but he is being challenged by a surging Herman Cain. Iowa will be the first primary state for the 2012 Presidential nominee and is a caucus state.
Cain and Palin have been the biggest beneficiaries in Iowa of Huckabee and Trump’s decisions not to run. Cain is at 15% now despite not even having been included on our last poll. Palin’s gained 7 points in the six weeks since our last poll compared to 5 point gains for Romney, Pawlenty, and Bachmann, a 3 point gain for Gingrich, and a 2 point bump for Paul.
Romney’s leading in Iowa based on his strength with centrist and center right Republican voters. With moderates he’s at 34% to 16% for Palin, 13% for Paul, and 11% for Gingrich. With ‘somewhat conservative’ voters he’s at 24% to 15% for Pawlenty, 13% for Palin, and 12% for Gingrich and Cain. His strength with those two groups outweighs his continuing weakness with the furthest right group of voters in the state, which constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate at 41%. With those ‘very conservative’ folks Romney can muster only a fourth place finish at 13%. Cain and Palin tie for the lead with that group of voters at 19% followed by Bachmann at 15%.
I would think one would have to say that while Mitt Romney is leading, conservative candidates Cain, Palin and Bachmann are splitting votes. If Iowa conservatives were to consolidate on one candidate, then Romney is in trouble. Surprisingly, Tim Pawlenty, a moderate-conservative does the best head to head with Romney though.
Here is a summary of the favorable vs unfavorable data:
So, what does this all mean?
There is definitely room for the entry of a “new” candidate like Paul Ryan, Chris Christie or Jeb Bush. The $1 million question is whether Sarah Palin runs and if she does, whether the GOP establishment then run someone else against her, ie. Ryan,Christie or Bush?
Tim Pawlenty is not catching fire and Jon Huntsman fledgling campaign is on life support – at least in Iowa.
The entire poll is here. -
Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2102 Poll Watch: Giuliani 16% Vs. Romney 15% Vs. Palin 13% Vs. Paul 12% Vs. Cain 10%
According to the latest CNN/Opinion Research Poll.
- Giuliani 16%
- Romney 15%
- Palin 13%
- Paul 12%
- Cain 10%
- Gingrich 8%
- Bachmann 7%
- Pawlenty 5%
- Santorum 2%
- Huntsman 1%
- Johnson 1%
- Roemer *
- Someone else (vol.) 3%
- None/ No one (vol.) 5%
- No opinion
And, who would be your second choice?
- Romney 15%
- Giuliani 14%
- Gingrich 10%
- Bachmann 10%
- Palin 10%
- Paul 7%
- Pawlenty 6%
- Huntsman 6%
- Cain 5%
- Santorum 2%
- Johnson 2%
- Karger *
- Roemer 1%
- Someone else (vol.) 4%
- None/ No one (vol.) 8%
- No opinion 2%
An interesting poll, since it is only rumored that Rudy Giuliani is looking at the 2012 Presidential race. As I have said, I have seen no “Bat Sign” from Gotham City (New York) that Giuliani is gearing up, besides Rep. Peter King statements and his speaking engagements in New Hampshire.
But, nevertheless, this will create some buzz, that Rudy may be the anti-Romney candidate to face Sarah Palin.
GOP Primary without Rudy Giuliani:- Romney 19%
- Palin 15%
- Paul 13%
- Cain 11%
- Gingrich 11%
- Bachmann 7%
- Pawlenty 5%
- Huntsman 3%
- Santorum 2%
- Johnson 2%
- Roemer 1%
- Someone else (vol.) 3%
- None/ No one (vol.) 6%
- No opinion 2%
GOP Primary without Rudy Giuiani and Sarah Palin:
- Romney 21%
- Paul 15%
- Cain 13%
- Gingrich 12%
- Bachmann 9%
- Pawlenty 5%
- Huntsman 3%
- Santorum 3%
- Johnson 2%
- Roemer 1%
- Someone else (vol.) 5%
- None/ No one (vol.) 9%
- No opinion 2%
This is a shocking poll with regards to Rudy Giuliani but shows his strength within the GOP. This is not a good poll for Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman who wish to be the anti-Romney candidate. This poll also demonstrates that while Mitt Romney may be the front runner at this time, his strength is WEAK.
-
President 2012 Ohio GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Vs. Sarah Palin 16% Vs. Herman Cain 12%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Sarah Palin – 66% vs. 24%
- Mitt Romney – 55% Vs. 25%
- Newt Gingrich – 42% vs. 34%
GOP Primary Head to Head:
- Romney – 21%
- Palin – 16%
- Cain – 12%
- Gingrich – 12%
- Bachmann – 10%
- Paul – 9%
- Pawlenty – 5%
- Huntsman – 1%
- Someone else/not sure – 15%
The entire poll is here.
Romney’s ahead in Ohio because he has a broad lead with voters describing themselves as ‘somewhat conservative,’ getting 27% with Gingrich coming in second at 14%. He’s also ahead with moderates at 22% to Palin’s 18%. Voters falling into the ‘very conservative’ camp continue to be a problem for him though. His favorability with them is a +37 spread at 61/24. That puts him a whooping 33 points below Palin’s standing with that same group, which is a +70 spread at 83/13.
Palin leads the horse race with those voters at 20% with Michele Bachmann at 15%, and Romney tying Cain for third at 13%. Maybe voters on the far right will split their votes enough that their lack of support doesn’t cost Romney the nomination but for now they look like they could be a big problem.
Ohio is a key battleground state and one that the GOP desperately needs to win the general election in the Electoral College. Sarah Palin is showing some signs of a resurgence in the polling now that Mike Huckabee has left the race. I suspect votes for Hermain Cain would go to Palin once she officially declares her candidacy.
Tim Pawlenty is trailing badly and Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann are looking more like an anti-Romney candidate (s).
-
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney Leads on Issues, Palin on Social Values
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Mitt Romney, one of the two leaders for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, receives generally equal support across Republican political issue groups. Sarah Palin, the other leader, has a more segmented appeal, with greater support among Republicans most concerned about social and moral issues, and less interest from Republicans focused on government spending and power.
The largest segment of Republicans (36%) continue to say government spending and power is their top concern. Romney does best in this segment, followed by a group of four candidates between 10% and 13% support. Herman Cain, the less well-known candidate — who nevertheless generates a good deal of positive intensity among those who know him — does slightly better than Newt Gingrich, Palin, or Ron Paul within this issue group. Paul, an avowed libertarian, has made the push for restraining government power the hallmark of his political career, but he does not have an unusually strong position among these Republicans.
There has been some talk around the nets that Sarah Palin’s latest bus tour is a charade and that after she milks the media or attention and adoration will withdraw and endorse Herman Cain. Interesting, because Herman Cain has been drawing a lot of attention around Tea party circles.
The second-most-prevalent group consists of Republicans whose most salient issue is business and the economy (31%). Republicans in this group are most likely to favor Romney and Palin, with Paul and Gingrich lagging slightly behind. Romney is the only major GOP candidate who has an MBA and is one of the few candidates who have extensive experience in the corporate world. Cain’s experience includes his position as CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, but he does not do particularly well among Republicans whose main interest is business and the economy.
Fifteen percent of Republicans say their main political interest is social issues and moral values. Mike Huckabee dominated as the candidate of choice among this group in previous months, and his announcement on May 14 that he would not be running therefore left a void. Palin now fares best among this group, receiving 23% support, followed by Romney at 18% and Paul at 11%. No other candidate gets double-digit support. In April, Huckabee led with 26% support among this group, while Palin received 18%.
Another 15% of Republicans say national security and foreign policy is their biggest concern. Romney and Palin tie for the lead among this group, with Cain coming in third, slightly ahead of Gingrich.
Without a doubt Sarah Palin entering the race will be a game changer. It means that Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman will be dead as an alternative to the “establishment candidate” in Mitt Romney. Michele Bachmann will remain a wild card since she will command a large presence in Iowa, the first GOP caucus state.
And, here is a poll of GOP issue priorities:
So, what does this all mean?
Romney’s roughly equal appeal among the four issue-defined segments of Republicans is one of the most interesting outcomes of this research. Romney in general has high favorable ratings and low unfavorable ratings, but he does not generate the same type of intense feelings as do other candidates. These data suggest that Romney does well among Republicans in all four issue segments, but doesn’t have unusually strong appeal in any.
Palin, on the other hand has a more segmented appeal. With Huckabee’s departure from the GOP race, she now fares best among Republicans who say social and moral issues are their top concern, and essentially ties for first among those who favor business and the economy and national security/foreign policy. Palin, however, lags among the largest group of Republicans — those most focused on government spending and power.
Cain, overall one of Republicans’ top five choices for their party’s nomination, despite being recognized by only a third of Republicans, places strongly among Republicans whose most important issue is government spending and power. Cain also does well among national security and foreign policy-interested Republicans.
The other two candidates among Republicans’ top five choices for the nomination — Paul and Gingrich — do not have highly segmented positioning across the GOP interest groups. Paul does less well among those interested in national security and foreign policy, and Gingrich does less well among those interested in social and moral values.
I say it is likely to see a Mitt Romney versus Sarah Palin face-off for the GOP nomination, unless the Bush donors tire of Romney. Then, at this late date, they will try to coerce Chris Christie into the race. In that case, Sarah Palin may win in a three-way contest.
-
President 2012 Georgia GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 23% Gingrich 22% Cain 16% Palin 10% Romney 8%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Mike Huckabee – 75% Vs. 14%
- Newt Gingrich – 62% Vs. 23%
- Sarah Palin – 58% Vs. 31%
- Herman Cain – 44% Vs. 23%
- Mitt Romney – 50% Vs. 32%
Again Mike Huckabee is demonstrating his strength in the deep South. His favorable rating is better than former Georgia Rep. and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.
Head to Head:
- Huckabee – 23%
- Gingrich – 22%
- Cain – 16%
- Palin – 10%
- Romney – 8%
- Bachmann – 4%
- Paul – 3%
- Pawlenty – 3%
If former speaker Newt Gingrich cannot win in his own home state, one has to wonder why he is bothering to run at all. But, if you take native Georgian Herman Cain out of the poll, Gingrich does beat Huckabee.
Cain’s 16% standing is pretty impressive for several reasons. His third place finish comes despite having 15% less name recognition than the rest of the quartet. And even though he’s competing with a second home state candidate he still does better in Georgia than Sarah Palin does in Alaska (15%), Gary Johnson does in New Mexico (13%), or Rick Santorum does in Pennsylvania (11%). The fact that Cain is the first choice of so many of the people who are familiar with him bodes well for his prospects if he can muster the resources to run a serious campaign.
If you take Cain out of the mix in Georgia Gingrich does lead the way with 31% to 24% for Huckabee, 10% for Palin, 8% for Romney, 5% for Bachmann, 4% for Paul and Pawlenty, and 3% for Haley Barbour.
-
Herman Cain, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Continues to Lead in Positive Intensity Tracking
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Mike Huckabee continues to generate the strongest favorable reactions from Republicans who recognize him, with a Positive Intensity Score of 26. Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann follow, with Positive Intensity Scores of 20. Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain are at 19, and Sarah Palin is at 18.
Isn’t it interesting the two relative new candidates in Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain are polling so well? Also, Mitch Daniels scores rose. Seems Republicans like the prospect of a new group of candidates.
Although Tim Pawlenty announced the formation of a presidential exploratory committee last week, there was no change in his positioning in Gallup’s March 14-27 polling compared with the previous two-week rolling average.
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels’ and Romney’s Positive Intensity Scores each rose by five points from two weeks ago — Daniels’ from 10 to 15, and Romney’s from 15 to 20. This week’s update puts Romney in a tie for second place behind Huckabee for the first time.
This marks the first report on Republicans’ views of Herman Cain, a former restaurant association executive from Georgia, who has formed a presidential exploratory committee. Cain is not well known among Republicans — 21% recognize his name — but generates enthusiasm among those who do know him, giving him an overall Positive Intensity Score of 19.