• Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 GOP Iowa Poll Watch: Cain 20% Vs. Gingrich 19% Vs. Romney 14% Vs. Bachmann and Paul 10%

    November 14, 2011 /

    According to the latest The Polling Company Poll.

    A new survey, conducted by the Republican firm the polling company, shows five candidates in double digits, with no one really running away from the pack. Businessman Herman Cain leads with 20 percent, statistically tied with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, at 19 percent.

    Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, at 14 percent, is certainly within striking distance. Reps. Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul are both at 10 percent. Four other candidates scored at 5 percent or less, and only 13 percent of Iowa Republicans are undecided.

    Cain’s lead, according to pollster Kellyanne Conway, is based on what she calls the “Palin vote.” The embattled businessman, fighting charges of sexual harrassment during his time at the National Restaurant Association in the late 1990s, is getting support from “those hard-core Republicans who coalesce around a candidate they seem as unfairly treated by the media or establishment,” she said.
    That means the allegations, perhaps counter to conventional wisdom, are actually good for Cain’s campaign. They’re providing a temporary boost that will likely fade once the issue recedes from the headlines, especially if another Republican candidate finds him or herself at the center of the media scrum.The poll, conducted Nov. 11-13, surveyed 501 likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, leaving a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent. It’s the second survey in a row, after the Des Moines Register poll released late last month, that shows Cain leading, and it’s the first state-specific poll that has Gingrich surging too.

    Newt Gingrich is starting to surge.

    If Gingrich can win in Iowa, he might be the only candidate standing except for Mitt Romney going into South Carolina and Florida

  • Pinboard Links,  The Morning Flap

    The Morning Flap: November 7, 2011

    November 7, 2011 /

    These are my morning flap links for November 7th:

    • Contact Your Senator: This Week We Overturn Obama Administration Net Neutrality Internet Power Grab – From most appearances, the Senate will this week vote on Senate Joint Resolution (S.J.Res) 6 – the Congressional Review Act Resolution of Disapproval of the Obama Administration Federal Communications Commission (FCC)’s illegal Internet Net Neutrality power grab.

      Only 51 votes are required for passage – which means only 4 Democrats are needed. There are 23 Democrat Senate seats up for reelection next year. A few of these folks aren’t running. The rest are – many in Center or Center-Right states. Additionally. there are a few other Senators that should also be subject to Constitutional reason, and thusly contacted.

      Behold a list of some of these Senators – and their contact information. Reach out and tell them to vote Yes on S.J.Res 6. And Tweet it all out – with the hashtag #freethenet.

    • Gallegly one of targeted 25 in new DCCC radio ads – One year before Election Day 2012, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee launched radio ads in the districts of 25 targeted Republicans nationwide, including Rep. Elton Gallegly of Simi Valley.

      The extent of the buy was not divulged, but Republican operatives told the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call that they believed the buy was very minimal — an attempt to gain some news coverage, rather than actually make impressions on voters with repetitive ads on multiple stations.

      Gallegly — who has not yet announced whether he intends to run for re-election — would most likely run in the new 26th Congressional District, which includes all of Ventura County except for most of the city of Simi Valley and small coastal strip in the city of Ventura. The voting makeup and history of that district suggest it is one that Democrats can classify as a “pickup” — one in which most the territory is now represented by Gallegly and could be won by a Democrat in the fall. If Democrats win 25 such districts nationally next year and hold onto the seats they now hold, they will regain majority control of the House of Representatives.

      The inclusion of Gallegly in the 25 selected targets is the latest evidence that the new district will put Ventura County squarely on the map in national congressional campaign politics next fall.

    • Best College Majors for a Career – Choosing the right college major can make a big difference in students’ career prospects, in terms of employment and pay. Here’s a look at how various college majors fare in the job market, based on 2010 Census data. Some popular majors, such as nursing and finance, do particularly well, with unemployment under 5% and high salaries during the course of their careers.
    • New Woman Accusing Herman Cain Of Sexual Harassment Hires Gloria Allred – A new woman alleging sexual harassment by presidential hopeful Herman Cain will break her silence at a news conference with her powerhouse attorney Gloria Allred Monday afternoon in New York City, RadarOnline.com is exclusively reporting.

      The embattled GOP nominee has admitted that several women who worked at the National Restaurant Association during his tenure as president of the organization received settlements. Politico has reported that the settlements were given because of sexual harassment allegations.

      PHOTOS: Celebrity Cheaters

      The woman, who will be the first to go public on Monday, sought Cain’s help with an employment issue and was allegedly sexually harassed by him. Allred and her client will discuss, in detail, what she alleges occurred with Cain.

      The Tea Party darling had hoped the scandal would die down, but that’s not happening. Once again, he clashed with reporters on Saturday night after a debate with Newt Gingrich. Cain refused to answer questions about the allegations, and said, “You see what I mean? I was gonna do something that my staff told me not to do and try to respond, okay? What I’m saying is this — we are getting back on message, end of story. Back on message. Read all of the other accounts. Read all of the other accounts where everything has been answered in the story. We’re getting back on message, okay?”

    • President 2012 GOP Iowa Poll Watch: Cain Leads in Iowa, Gingrich Surges – A new We Ask America poll in Iowa finds Herman Cain leading the GOP presidential field with 22%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 18%, Mitt Romney at 15%, and Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 11%.

      No other candidate gets more than 5%.

      Here comes Newt.

    • Romney Will Play in Iowa – The Hotline: “After months of debate inside the Romney camp over whether to compete in Iowa, it seems the decision has been made: Romney will play in Iowa, and he will play to win. The most recent evidence: Romney will hold campaign events Monday in Iowa, his second trip in three weeks after visiting the state only twice in the previous 12 months; His son Josh and wife Ann have quietly canvassed the state in recent weeks, and both have campaigned vigorously there for the Republican candidate in a crucial state Senate race; and Romney just launched aggressive robocalls in Iowa attacking Perry over his immigration policies, throwing the first punch in what could be a heavyweight Hawkeye State bout.”

      “The question is no longer whether Romney competes in Iowa; the question is how much time and money he’ll invest in the state that so wounded his candidacy in 2008.”

    • Byron York: Why Santorum runs – If sheer effort determined the winner of the Iowa caucuses, Rick Santorum would win in a walk. His stop in Fairfield marks the 97th Iowa county Santorum has visited in his run for the Republican presidential nomination. The state has 99 counties in all, and before this day is over, Santorum will reach his goal of visiting them all. None of Santorum’s rivals has even come close.

      The problem is Santorum isn’t close to the lead here in Iowa. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, he is the choice of 3.5 percent of Iowa Republicans — seventh in a field of eight candidates. No matter who has led the field — Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain — Santorum has stayed near the bottom.

      Yet Santorum is the most powerful voice on behalf of the conservative social positions that many Iowa Republicans hold dear. It’s his bad luck to be running in a year dominated by economic concerns and to face opponents who more or less share his views on social issues but are perceived as stronger candidates on economic matters. Santorum is stuck in a moment that’s just not made for him.

      It’s a problem Santorum has struggled with, and he’s come up with two ways to address it. The first is by talking about the economy in a way that is unique among Republican candidates. And the second is by arguing that economic recovery and economic strength simply aren’t possible without the emphasis on strong families that has been a key part of his campaign.

    • Report: Pentagon Weighing Base Closures, Military Benefits in Face of Budget Cuts – Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, in an effort to find $450 billion to cut from the Pentagon’s budget, is considering wide-ranging measures that could include base closures, hikes in the cost of military health insurance, and possible cuts in retirement pay, The New York Times reported Sunday.

      Panetta’s comments about budget reductions come nearly three weeks before the so-called congressional super committee reaches a key deadline. The Pentagon stands to see $600 billion in automatic cuts if the committee does not come up with an alternative plan.

      “There will be some huge political challenges,” Panetta told the Times in an interview that took place Friday. “When you reduce defense spending, there’s likely to be base closures, possible reduction in air wings,” he said.

      The days of a counterinsurgency-focused force might be coming to a close.

      The Times reported that Panetta “did not envision maintaining a ground force large enough to conduct a long, bloody war and then stability operations in North Korea or Iran, as the United States did in Afghanistan and Iraq.”

      Among the proposals he was considering, Panetta told the Times that the Pentagon was considering raising fees for the military’s health insurance program. Military retirees and families, who are guaranteed the military benefit for life, pay only $460 a year in fees, the Times said.

    • Romney, seen as most electable, still struggles to break out of pack, poll shows – Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has a significant advantage over his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination in only one area — electability — and will approach the next round of candidate debates with several potential liabilities, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

      Often described as the candidate to beat in the GOP race, Romney remains stuck in place in national polls — he is at 24 percent in the Post-ABC survey — despite the fact that one of his main challengers, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, has stumbled and several high-profile potential candidates decided not to enter the race to challenge President Obama.

    • IAEA says foreign expertise has brought Iran to threshold of nuclear capability – Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Iran’s government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts briefed on the findings.

      Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by a former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said. Crucial technology linked to experts in Pakistan and North Korea also helped propel Iran to the threshold of nuclear capability, they added.

    • Census: 49 million in poverty – New estimates released Monday show that the number of Americans living in poverty was higher than previously estimated, and stands at 49.1 million, according to the Census Bureau.

      The nearly-50 million people who live below the poverty line represents 16 percent of all Americans.

      The numbers that were released were adjustments to the official 2010 poverty figures of 46.2 million, or 15.1 percent of Americans, that were released in September. The supplemental figure is higher than the official figure because it considers higher costs of living on expenses that aren’t factored into the official rate.

      Hispanic poverty rose to 28.2 percent, affecting 14.1 million, surpassing that of blacks for the first time. Still, 9.9 million African-Americans suffered from poverty, a rate of 25.4 percent. The Asian poverty rate was 16.7 percent, affecting 2.4 million people.

      Meanwhile, non-Hispanic whites had a lower poverty rate of 11.1 percent, or 21.9 million people.

    • Flap’s Blog.Com Links and Comments for November 6th through November 7th | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Links and Comments for November 6th through November 7th #tcot #catcot
  • Mark Steyn,  Pinboard Links,  The Sunday Flap

    The Sunday Flap: October 30, 2011

    October 30, 2011 /

    These are my links and comments for  Sunday, October 30th:

  • Pinboard Links,  Polling,  President 2012,  The Morning Flap

    The Morning Flap: October 27, 2011

    October 27, 2011 /

    • Self-Reported Gun Ownership in U.S. Is Highest Since 1993– The new result comes from Gallup’s Oct. 6-9 Crime poll, which also finds public support for personal gun rights at a high-water mark. Given this, the latest increase in self-reported gun ownership could reflect a change in Americans’ comfort with publicly stating that they have a gun as much as it reflects a real uptick in gun ownership.
    • The new result comes from Gallup’s Oct. 6-9 Crime poll, which also finds public support for personal gun rights at a high-water mark. Given this, the latest increase in self-reported gun ownership could reflect a change in Americans’ comfort with publicly stating that they have a gun as much as it reflects a real uptick in gun ownership.Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) are more likely than Democrats (including Democratic leaners) to say they have a gun in their household: 55% to 40%.
    • While sizable, this partisan gap is narrower than that seen in recent years, as Democrats’ self-reported gun ownership spiked to 40% this year.Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) are more likely than Democrats (including Democratic leaners) to say they have a gun in their household: 55% to 40%. While sizable, this partisan gap is narrower than that seen in recent years, as Democrats’ self-reported gun ownership spiked to 40% this year.
    • Polls: 12 House pickup chances for Democrats – New polls out Thursday of 12 House districts now held by Republicans in four states showcase some prime pickup opportunities for Democrats next year.
    • The House Majority PAC, which can raise unlimited money to support Democratic candidates with an independent expenditure campaign, commissioned Public Policy Polling to survey 12 districts where the redistricting process has been completed.
    • In every one, less than 50 percent of voters said they would like to see the incumbent Republican reelected next year. And a majority in all but one expressed a negative opinion of the Republicans in Congress.
    • Ali Lapp, executive director of House Majority PAC, argues that “Republican control of the House is in serious jeopardy.”
    • Redistricting in Arkansas, California, Illinois and Wisconsin – where PPP polled the dozen districts – could help Democrats.
    • Some Republicans who have not faced competitive races in years now face serious trouble. Illinois Rep. Tim Johnson, for example, has been drawn by the Democratic legislature into a treacherous district where just 33 percent of voters would like to reelect him, according to the new poll, while 53 percent would prefer someone else.
    • “Congressional Republicans have become very unpopular, very fast, across a very wide variety of districts and that’s going to make dozens of incumbent GOP members vulnerable for reelection next year,” PPP director Tom Jensen, a respected Democratic pollster, writes in a three-page memo.
    • Democrats face a very heavy lift to get the 25 seats they need to regain a majority. That kind of turnover is rare, and Republicans have solidified their holds on certain seats in states where they controlled the redistricting process. Historically, the kind of turnover from the last three election cycles is very rare, yet polls like these give Democrats confidence.
    • Which begs the question: At what point is he simply required to put his best foot forward in the Hawkeye State?
    • The CNN/TIME Magazine poll shows Romney with a statistically insignificant lead on businessman Herman Cain, 24 percent to 21 percent, and is one of two major polls this month to show Romney with a small lead in Iowa. (The other being an NBC/Marist College poll from early in the month, before Cain really picked up steam.)
    • Despite this, Romney has visited the state only three times this year and continues to dance around the concept of running a full-throated campaign in it. He skipped the Ames Straw Poll two months ago and, most recently, became the only major GOP presidential candidate who hasn’t sworn off Iowa (read: Jon Huntsman) to skip the state GOP’s Ronald Reagan Dinner.
    • Romney’s campaign is smartly lowering expectations in a state that will be tougher than the others for him and that he doesn’t necessarily need; after all, the CNN poll shows he’s got a great chance at winning basically any of the early states (he leads in all of them), and his chances are especially good in New Hampshire and Nevada, the latter which CNN didn’t poll but has shown large leads for Romney.
    • Is Perry dropping off the debating circuit? – It’s hard to believe that Texas Gov. Rick Perry would bug out of the debates, but that is what his campaign was hinting about yesterday. Politico reports: “Perry spokesman Mark Miner said the issue is using time wisely, and noted their campaign is not alone in that. ‘I think all the campaigns are expressing frustration right now,’ Miner told POLITICO. ‘We said we would do Michigan but the primaries are around the corner and you have to use your time accordingly.’?”
    • I am not aware of any other candidate thinking of fleeing the chance for free airtime to sell himself or herself to the American people. Should Perry back out after a series of awful debate outings, the message would plainly be: This is too hard for me.
    • Perry is big on sport metaphors and has said his low standing in the polls won’t send him home at halftime. But if he absents himself from the debates, especially the foreign policy debate on Nov. 15, the unmistakable message is that he really isn’t ready for prime-time.

    Enjoy your morning!

  • Barbara Boxer,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Iowa Poll Watch: Romney 42% Vs. Obama 39%

    July 14, 2011 /
    electoral college President 2012 North Carolina Poll Watch: Obama and Romney Tied at 45%
    A statewide poll conducted July 5th through July 7th shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a statistical dead heat with President Barack Obama in a survey of 629 likely Iowa voters in the 2012 general election.
    Romney had 42 percent compared to 39 percent for Obama with 19 percent undecided. Meanwhile, Obama had 47 percent support among Iowans when put head-to-head against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, who had 42 percent while 11 percent were undecided.
    The survey was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, an independent firm. The overall survey, conducted for the Every Child Matters Education Fund, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent.

    This is the third key battleground state in the past few days where Romney has either been tied with or leads the incumbent President. The other two were Florida and North Carolina.

    See the graphic above which lists the number of electoral college votes possesed by each state. 270 votes are necessary to win.

    President Obama had better hope this is a momentary fall for him in the polls and that he will be able to turn it around with campaigning because so far he has been underperforming by every pundits expectrations in the states he needs to win.

    As for Mitt Rmney, he will be preparing ads saying he is the GOP nominee that has the best chance to beat Obama – and so far he is correct.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for April 20th on 14:10

    April 20, 2011 /

    These are my links for April 20th from 14:10 to 14:20:

    • MLB Commissioner Bud Selig confirms appointment of Dodgers trustee, investigation into club finances – MLB Commissioner Bud Selig announced Wednesday that his office will assume control of the Dodgers' operations. Owner Frank McCourt needed a personal loan from Fox in order to meet the Dodgers' payroll last week.

      The official statement from Commissioner Bud Selig:

      "Pursuant to my authority as Commissioner, I informed Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt today that I will appoint a representative to oversee all aspects of the business and the day-to-day operations of the Club.  I have taken this action because of my deep concerns regarding the finances and operations of the Dodgers and to protect the best interests of the Club, its great fans and all of Major League Baseball. My office will continue its thorough investigation into the operations and finances of the Dodgers and related entities during the period of Mr. McCourt's ownership.  I will announce the name of my representative in the next several days. The Dodgers have been one of the most prestigious franchises in all of sports, and we owe it to their legion of loyal fans to ensure that this club is being operated properly now and will be guided appropriately in the future."

      =====

      Put a fork in Frank McCourt – he is done.

    • University of Iowa Professor Tells College Republicans to “F” Off – A University of Iowa professor felt the need to reply to a blast email by the College Republicans on Monday morning. Ellen Lewin, a professor of Anthropology and Gender, Women’s & Sexuality Studies in the Department of Gender, Women’s & Sexuality Studies, sent a vulgar response to a College Republican email about the group’s, “Conservative Coming Out Week.”

      The College Republican email, which was sent to the entire University of Iowa Community, had been approved by a number of university officials before being sent out.

      Lewin responded to email by writing, “#*@% [F-Word] YOU, REPUBLICANS” from her official university email account.

      Natalie Ginty, a University of Iowa Student and Chairwoman of the Iowa Federation of College Republicans, demanded an apology from Lewin’s supervisors. “We understand that as a faculty member she has the right to express her political opinion, but by leaving her credentials at the bottom of the email she was representing the University of Iowa, not herself alone,” Ginty wrote to James Enloe, the head of the Department of Anthropology.

      “Vile responses like Ellen’s need to end. Demonizing the other party through name-calling only further entrenches feelings of disdain for the other side. I am sure you understand that nothing is ever accomplished by aimless screams of attack,” Ginty concluded.

      =======

      And, then she later tried to apologize as the leftists usually do.

      Pretty standard here.

    • Liberals attack Paul Ryan because his father died young, resulting in survivor benefits – But the Daily Kos blog is now using his father's early death against Ryan. A Daily Kos diary attacks Ryan in a post entitled, “Entitlement-hating Paul Ryan collected Social Security benefits until he was 18.” Never mind that Ryan’s recent budget proposal doesn’t in fact seek to abolish entitlements, much less get rid of Social Security. It merely seeks to cut the rate of growth of exploding Medicare costs by eventually giving its recipients vouchers they can use to shop around for medical care.

      Not all Daily Kos diaries reflect the views of Daily Kos as a whole, but this one does, since it was briefly featured on the top of the front page of Daily Kos, and is still listed as a “recommended” blog post in the sidebar on the right side of Daily Kos's main page. More than 183 Daily Kos readers have commented in response to it – virtually all in agreement with its hateful sentiments.

      Even if Ryan’s recent proposal cut Social Security, rather than just reforming a different program – Medicare — there would be nothing hypocritical about his wanting to rein in the costs of an increasingly costly program simply because he received modest benefits under that program as a child, when financial decisions were presumably made for him by his parent or guardian (people who had themselves paid into that very program with their tax dollars). Social security payments have risen faster than inflation since Ryan was a child, and have increased radically as a percentage of our economy.

      Liberal bloggers frequently smear conservatives and libertarians as hypocrites for seeking to collect social security and other benefits. For example, Ayn Rand was attacked by the liberal blog Balloon Juice as being a “welfare queen” for receiving Medicare benefits even though she had contributed lots of tax money in her lifetime through income and self-employment taxes she paid based on her best-selling books.

      ======

      Paul Ryan has proposed reforming MEDICARE.

      Guess those leftists at Daily Kos cannot read so well.