-
President 2012 GOP California Poll Watch: Romney 22% Vs. Perry 15% Vs. Palin 10% Vs. Bachmann 8.5%
According to the latest Probolsky Research Poll.
An interesting poll with a small sample size, includes Sarah Palin and does NOT include Rudy Giuliani who is very popular in California.So, I say take it as – meh……
It is likely, but NOT highly likely that with a crowded GOP field, the California Presidential Primary Election which will be held in June 2012 will actually matter. Most candidates in the GOP field and certainly the party would like the nomination contest to be over long before then.
Why?
California is a very large state and the media markets extremely expensive. Plus, California is going for Obama no matter what and any cross-over campaigning for the general election will not matter.
Also, remember, the California Primary has historically been “winner take all” and having the election so late will allow the party to set the rules in this manner
-
President 2012 GOP New Hampshire Poll Watch: Romney 36% Vs. Perry 18% Vs. Paul 14% Vs. Bachmann 10%
According to the latest NH Journal/Magellan Strategies Poll.
In the wake of Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s entrance into the GOP presidential race, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds onto a double-digit lead in New Hampshire, according to a new poll.
Romney, who owns a home in the Granite State, attracts 36 percent support from likely GOP primary voters, according to a NH Journal/Magellan Strategies (R) poll released Wednesday. Perry makes a strong debut in the poll, however, placing second behind Romney with 18 percent support. Fellow Texan Ron Paul rounds out the top three with 14 percent.
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, whose focus on the early state of Iowa paid off in the form of a straw poll victory in Ames over the weekend, garners 10 percent support. Bachmann’s Iowa victory likely won’t boost her prospects in New Hampshire, however, as 84 percent of likely voters polled say the straw poll results won’t impact their decision in the GOP primary.
A good initial New Hampshire poll for Texas Governor Rick Perry.
Not so good for Michele Bachmann who won last weekend’s Iowa Ames Straw Poll. It seems that Perry who just announced a few days ago is sucking the air out of Bachmann’s conservative base and her campaign.
And, Jon Huntsman. Why is he still in the race?
Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman attracts only 3 percent support from voters. The former U.S. ambassador to China has been polling near the bottom of national surveys, but his focus has been on New Hampshire. He visited the state last week, but the Magellan survey shows a plurality of voters in the state — 47 percent — have an unfavorable opinion of him. Twenty percent say they like him while 24 percent say they don’t know enough about him to make a decision.
-
President 2012 GOP Wisconsin Poll Watch: Perry 20% Vs. Bachmann 20% Vs. Romney 13%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann are tied for the Republican Presidential lead in Wisconsin at 20%…with Mitt Romney all the way back at 13%. Sarah Palin at 11%, Herman Cain at 7%, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul at 6%, Tim Pawlenty (the poll was conducted before he dropped out) at 3%, and Jon Huntsman at 1% round out the field.
These numbers make it clear that Bachmann and Perry have all the momentum in the state, while all the other candidates are losing steam. Perry wasn’t even tested when we polled Wisconsin in May and Bachmann’s up 9 points now from her 11% standing then. Everyone else is on the decline- Pawlenty’s fall was the worst, down 8 points from 11% in May to now 3%. You can see why he dropped out.
Palin’s support is down 5 points, Romney, Paul, and Gingrich are each down 4, Cain’s down 3, and Huntsman’s down 1. At least in Wisconsin Perry and Bachmann are clearly sucking the wind out of the rest of the field and it’s going to be interesting to see if that’s the case everywhere in polling over the next couple weeks.
Another poor showing for Mitt Romney in an early GOP primary state after Texas Governor Rick Perry’s recent entrance into the Presidential race.
And, this poll assumes a Sarah Palin candidacy which at this time would likely be siphoning votes away from Bachmann and Perry.
If you take Palin out of the picture Bachmann gains even more steam, getting 24% to 20% for Perry, 17% for Romney, and 10% for Gingrich.
-
President 2012: Why Rudy Giuliani Continues to Consider a Presidential Race
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been quietly but steadily traveling to New Hampshire discussing his long shot Presidential ambitions. But, is this a Quixotic attempt to stay relevant or is there something more?Looking at the GOP nomination calendar, it may indeed be something more.
Now, Texas Governor Rick Perry and Rudy are friends. Perry endorsed Rudy’s Presidential race in 2008 and I do not know how this calculus works. Nor, do I know whether Sarah Palin will actually enter the Presidential arena.
But, let us assume that Sarah Palin runs and Rudy enters the race as a moderate alternative to Sarah and Michele Bachmann.
Can Rudy Giuliani win the nomination? Or, at least have a shot?
The short answer is: Rudy Giuliani can either win or determine who the 2012 Presidential nominee will be.
Let’s look at the GOP primary nomination calendar.
Here are the early states.There are two things you really need to pay attention to here. First, note the states with asterisks. The RNC has decided to strip half of the delegates from any state that holds a primary or caucus before March 1, other than Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada. Some states are considering pushing their primaries back, although these also tend to be the more moderate states, like Wisconsin and New Jersey. The more conservative states seem to be hanging tough, for now. In other words, you could end up with some of the more conservative states in the GOP electorate losing clout at the convention.
Please note the states of New Hampshire, Florida and New Jersey in the early state category where Rudy Giuliani will definitely win some delegates (remember these races are proportional contests – not winner take all).
I can see a scenario where the more conservative candidates of Perry, Bachmann, and Palin split the conservative wing of the party and Giuliani beats or remains a close second to Mitt Romney after the early contests.
Next, come the next tier of elections in March:
Here there are sufficient large and moderate GOP states to provide delegates to a Giuliani candidacy – Illinois, Michigan, Massachusetts and Vermont. Remember again, that the Republican National Committee has ruled that states who conduct primaries prior to April 1 must allocate their delegates proportionately.
Again, a Giuliani candidacy can remain credible with maybe not the plurality of delegates, but a sufficient amount leading into the post-April primaries:
Note that these post-April primary contests are considerably more moderate on political orientation and include New York and California. These are both states that Giuliani could win all of the delegates since they might become winner take all contests. Rudy would also do well in the other Eastern and Far West states, including Oregon, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Washington.
Giuliani could either gather a plurality of delegates by the end of the primary season and unite with a conservative candidate (namely Rick Perry, his friend) as his Vice President selection and go into the Florida GOP Convention with a majority of delegates.
Or, Rudy could broker his delegates to the “will” of the convention and accept the Vice Presidency.
Sean Trende over at Real Clear Politics begins his piece with the meme of how well Romney will do against Rick Perry.I think Sean has it a little wrong.
He has just made the case for a Rudy Giuliani candidacy.
-
President 2012: Question of the Hour?
Republican presidential candidate Rep. Michele Bachmann (L) and her husband Marcus Bachmann encourage people to vote for her outside the Hilton Coliseum at Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa. Bachmann won the Iowa straw poll on Saturday, in an early boost for her campaign for the White House
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann has won the Iowa Straw Poll against a competing and non-competing field.
Texas Governor Rick Perry has announced his candidacy for the Presidency at a Red State Conference in South Carolina.So, what is the question of the hour?
As for Romney, the former Massachusetts governor is proving far more formidable than many imagined. He can sidestep an attack. He can reel off a list of policies in a one-minute answer. And to date he has been the contender who most looked and sounded the part of a presidential nominee. Perry can and almost certainly will try to knock Romney on health care and make the pitch that he, rather than Romney, is the most authentic conservative who can beat Obama. But I don’t think that is going to get him very far. For one thing, their position on issues is not likely to differ substantially.
Moreover, those who won’t vote for Romney, for example, because of health care or because they still can’t trust him on social issues, have already drifted to Bachmann. If Perry simply says, “Romney’s not conservative enough,” the question will still remain: Why Perry?
Perry’s task is therefore to prove himself more forceful, appealing, capable and dynamic than both Romney and Bachmann. Romney’s got a seven-point pitch on jobs; Perry has to be more credible (by stressing his own job creation record). Romney sounds solid on national security; Perry must appear more determined. In the same way that Romney seems more presidential than Bachmann, Perry must seem to be a more vivid, effective combatant than Romney.
Perry’s late entry is also a reminder (both in a positive and negative sense for his own fortunes) that the rest of the field is decidedly un-Southern. Romney, Bachmann and the rest of the field, in speech and manner, don’t rekindle the memory of George W. Bush; Perry does. He’ll have to demonstrate he has appeal to non-Texans. It’s telling he announced in South Carolina, but will he wear well in New Hampshire?
It won’t be easy for Perry to rise to the top of the pack.. Romney is well versed on the issues; Perry has gaps (e.g., foreign policy). Romney is a very experienced debater; Perry’s untested. Romney has a private-sector background to point to; Perry does not. Romney at this point has been fully vetted; Perry is going to have to withstand the downpour of unflattering accounts that question how good his record as governor has been. And voters concerned about electability will no doubt worry that Perry’s accent and Texas pride may not play well in all parts of the country.
Perry will have plenty of money, a record of job creation and a persona that matches up with the Tea Party’s populism. The challenge for Perry is to prove himself a superior candidate and the most effective opponent to go up against Obama in the general election. Can he do it? Well, that is the question of the hour.
Well, the race is on and the media campaigns will begin very soon. Whoever, can best frame the issues on television and perform well in the debates will win.
Welcome to the race of 2012.
-
President 2012 Poll Watch: Democratic Insiders Say Mitt Romney is Obama’s Main Threat
According to the latest National Journal Democratic Insiders Poll.With the economy sputtering, Democratic political operatives view former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as the main Republican threat to President Obama’s reelection, according to this week’s National Journal Political Insiders Poll.
Democratic Insiders see Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has not yet declared whether or not he will run for president, as the second strongest against Obama. A separate poll of Republican insiders, released Thursday, also showed Perry as Romney’s main GOP challenger.
Just two months ago, Democratic Insiders also saw Romney as the lead GOP challenger for Obama to overcome, but today, they sound like that hurdle is considerably higher. “He is the best counter to Obama,” said one Democratic Insider of the former Massachusetts governor. “He is an executive while Obama was a legislator. Romney ran a company–Obama never made a payroll. Romney created jobs–unemployment is 9 percent-plus under Obama.” Echoed another, “Strong business background in a bad economy is a plus for him, as is the Massachusetts health care plan in a general election.” Added a third: “He forces Obama to defend the Democratic base states, and will be able to talk about the economy better than any other Republican.”
Democrats also thought Romney had gained experience from his unsuccessful run for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination and that he could win over swing voters, unlike some of his Republican rivals. “Has run before, looks presidential and unlike others not a total turn off to Dems and independents,” observed a Democratic Insider. “He’s got economic credibility, he seems smart, he has a bit of polish and he doesn’t seem like a complete loon,” said another Democrat. “None of the others have that whole package.
I have to agree that Mitt Romney at present looks like the most formidable to President Obama’s re-election. If he can get by the narrative he outsourced jobs to foreign countries and that RomneyCare is the same as ObamaCare he will win on the poor economy alone.
Also, if he chooses wisely a Vice Presidential running mate, like Rick Perry, Marco Rubio or Michele Bachmann who will reassure the Tea Party, he will have a tremendous advantage over Vice President Joe Biden.
Still, most Democrats are not taking much for granted. “With Obama’s approval rating at 40 percent and seemingly insensitive to jobs, Romney and either Bachmann or [Sen. Marco] Rubio [of Florida] would be [a] formidable [ticket].” Another said of Romney, “It looks like he’s got the strongest campaign, he’s raised the most money, and he’s not part of the current morass in Washington.”
-
President 2012 North Carolina GOP Poll Watch: Romney and Bachmann Co-Front Runners
According to the latest PPP Poll.
In North Carolina the numbers are very similar. There Romney leads Bachmann 23-22 with Rick Perry debuting at 14% and Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich at 9%, Ron Paul at 6%, Tim Pawlenty at 5%, and Jon Huntsman at 2% rounding out the field.
North Carolina’s a rare state where Bachmann actually edges out Romney with centrist voters, 23-21. But his 12 point lead with voters just right of center at 30-18 outweighs her 9 point advantage with far right voters at 26-17.
If you add Palin to the equation in North Carolina she finished 4th at 12% behind Romney at 18%, Bachmann at 17%, and Palin at 12%.
But, the real questions remain:
- When will Texas Governor Rick Perry announce?
- Will Sarah Palin run?
-
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Rick Perry is Leading in the South While Mitt Romney Leads in the West
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the favorite among southern Republicans when they are asked to say who they are most likely to support for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination, with a 22% to 13% advantage over Sarah Palin in that region. Mitt Romney has a similar edge, 24% to 12%, over Michele Bachmann in the West. Romney and Rudy Giuliani essentially tie for first in the East, with Romney holding a slight advantage among midwestern Republicans.
These results are based on a July 20-24 Gallup poll that shows Romney (17%) and Perry (15%) in a statistical tie as the preferred nominee among Republicans nationwide. However, Romney has a more significant lead among the more limited set of announced GOP candidates, which excludes Perry, Palin, and Giuliani.
This is a good poll for Rick Perry who has NOT even anounced an official candidacy. When he does in late August he will zoom past Michele Bachmann into second place.
With regards to Sarah Palin, she remains a “wild card” in this race. I have written for weeks now that should she run, then Rudy Giuliani would run. Rudy figures his strength in the East and somewhat in California might propel him to a place at the table at a “brokered” GOP Convention.
But, remember Rick Perry and Rudy are friends. Perry endorsed Rudy in 2008 and it would not be surprising that should Palin not decide to run, that Rudy would endorse Perry which would swing support to him in the East and West.
So, we wait for a few weeks and see what Sarah Palin announces at a Tea Party rally in Iowa on September 3rd.
Given Romney’s positioning among southern Republicans, a candidate like Perry could pose the most significant threat to him. One key would be whether Perry, as he became better known (currently 56% of Republicans are familiar with him), would expand his appeal in other regions, or if his core support would remain limited to the South. If the latter, Romney may still be able to hold onto his status as the front-runner even if his support in the South drops. If the former, Perry could emerge as the new GOP front-runner should he become an official candidate.
-
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 17% Vs. Perry 15% Vs. Palin 12% Vs. Giuliani 11% Vs. Bachmann 11%
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Mitt Romney is the leader for the GOP nomination among the current field of official candidates, supported by 27% of Republicans, compared with 18% for Michele Bachmann. However, Rick Perry would essentially tie Romney, with Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani close behind, in a scenario in which all three of these undecided candidates entered the race.
The results are based on a July 20-24 Gallup poll. Eight of the 11 Republicans included in the poll have announced their official candidacies. Giuliani, Palin, and Perry are not official candidates but are still actively considering becoming candidates even though the first nominating contests are less than seven months away. Any of the three would start from a relatively strong national position, with all registering at least double-digit support in the poll.
Nothing really has changed on this national poll. We continue to have an unsettled GOP field with Sarah Palin playing the “Wild Card.”
Texas Governor looks like the most likely unannounced candidate actually throwing his hat in the ring. Sarah and Rudy – well, not so much.
But, who knows?
I continue to maintain that if Sarah Palin runs, then so will Rudy Giuliani. If she doesn’t, then Rudy supports Rick Perry and Bachmann fades as the anti-Romney candidate.
Romney is the nominal front-runner for the Republican nomination, though his status is weaker now than a month ago and could be weakened further by the entry of a candidate like Perry, Palin, or Giuliani. Still, none of those potential candidates’ support exceeds Romney’s at the moment.
The time for any other candidates to enter the race is running short, though there is a precedent for candidates jumping in after Labor Day, as in 2003 (Democrat Wesley Clark) and 2007 (Republican Fred Thompson), though neither candidate fared well in the early primaries and caucuses.
-
President 2012: Michele Bachmann To Address California GOP Convention
Republican presidential candidate, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., speaks during a rally at the Delaware County fairgrounds in Manchester Iowa, Monday, July 25, 2011
A Friday night speech which is NOT prime time but coming to California must mean fundraising time.GOP presidential hopeful Michele Bachmann will make a trip to Southern California in September to speak at the California Republican Party’s fall convention.
The conservative Minnesota congresswoman is scheduled to address delegates on the first night of the three-day convention, which will be held in Los Angeles Sept 16-18.
CRP Chairman Tom Del Beccaro said in a statement that he believes Bachmann’s “pure energy, vibrancy and leadership will be a hit with our delegates.”
“This is a great opportunity for us to hear directly from one of the Republican Party’s leading presidential candidates,” he said.
The full speaker line-up has yet to be confirmed, though CRP spokesman Mark Standriff said invitations have been extended to other GOP presidential candidates as well.
Interesting that Bachmann who, if the GOP Presidential nominee, will have NO chance of beating President Obama is still coming to the Golden State. Obviously, it is to meet with donors and to fundriase but it may also be to preempt Mitt Romney and Rick Perry (who has addressed the convention previously) from having an exclusive forum in the vast nationwide media market which is Los Angeles.
I might actually buy a ticket for the Friday night speech and/or cover the event for flapsblog.