• Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 46% Vs. Obama 43%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 45% Vs. 52%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mitt Romney – 43% Vs. 43%
    • Mike Huckabee – 36% Vs. 45%
    • Newt Gingrich – 33% Vs. 53%
    • Sarah Palin – 34% Vs. 61%
    • Donald Trump – 32% Vs. 59%

    The General Election:

    • Romney – 46% vs. Obama – 43%
    • Obama – 45% Vs. Huckabee – 43%
    • Obama – 46% Vs. Gingrich – 42%
    • Obama – 50% Vs. Palin – 39%
    • Obama – 47% Vs. Trump – 41%

    In Nevada, a key battleground state which the GOP needs to win the Presidency in 2012 is definitely in play. President Obama is in trouble in Nevada.

    Barack Obama’s standing in Nevada has taken a significant turn in the wrong direction since early January and it appears he could have a much tougher time in the state next year than he did in 2008, particularly if the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney.

    Obama’s approval rating in Nevada is only 45% with 52% of voters disapproving of him. That represents an 11 point negative shift in his net approval since he posted a 50/46 spread on PPP’s first 2011 poll of the state. There are two problems contributing to Obama’s poor numbers. The first is that he is very unpopular with independents, only 33% of whom express favor for the job he’s doing to 65% who disapprove. The second is that Republicans (89%) are more united in their unhappiness with Obama than Democrats (79%) are in their approval. When independents don’t like you and the opposite party dislikes you more than your own likes you, that’s pretty much always going to be a formula for bad poll numbers.

    Despite his unpopularity Obama does lead 4 of the 5 Republicans we tested against him in the state, albeit by smaller margins than what he won over John McCain in 2008.

    Nevada voters are leery of President Obama. Whether it is the assinine comments about Las Vegas travel, the massive unemployment or rampant house foreclosures, Nevada is increasngly looking like an Electoral College pick-up for the Republicans.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 North Carolina Poll Watch: Obama 48% Vs. Huckabee 47%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    President Barack Obama – 49% Vs.48%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Newt Gingrich –  31% Vs. 50%
    • Mike Huckabee – 42% Vs. 37%
    • Sarah Palin –  33% Vs. 60%
    • Mitt Romney – 31% Vs. 44%
    • Donald Trump – 27% Vs. 62%

    The General Election:

    • Obama – 48% Vs. Huckabee – 47%
    • Obama – 47% Vs. Romney 44%
    • Obama – 49% Vs. Gingrich – 45%
    • Obama – 52% Vs. Palin – 40%
    • Obama – 51% Vs. Trump – 39%

    PPP polling seems to think that the President is holding his own in North Carolina. But, in this point in the race for 2012, Obama is not looking particularly strong in a key battleground state that the GOP nominee must win.

    Barack Obama’s poll numbers nationwide aren’t looking very good right now but one place where he’s holding up pretty well is North Carolina. His approval rating there this month is 49%, with 48% of voters disapproving. Those numbers basically mirror the results of the 2008 election in the state, pretty good given that in our national polling right now his approval spread is running 13 points behind his margin of victory against John McCain.

    There are two data points key to Obama’s continued decent standing in North Carolina. In most places Obama has maintained his popularity with minorities but seen a significant decline in his popularity with white voters. Here though his 37% approval rating with whites matches the percentage of the vote we found him winning in 2008 and that combined with his 87% standing with black voters puts him on slightly positive ground overall. The other key thing for Obama is that he’s at 50/44 with independents here, basically matching his 2008 victory margin over McCain in the state with those voters and running counter to his 37/54 approval breakdown with them nationally.

    Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are both withn the margin of error (4.4%) in the polls with an uncumbent President. Huckabee has NOT even made overtures to run for the office. This isn’t saying much about Obama’s strength.

    The PPP polling folks, a Democratic pollster, are having some delusions of grandeur here. Obama is in trouble.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Chris Christie,  Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Poll Watch: 65% will Not Vote for Sarah Palin, 64% Will Not Vote for Donald Trump

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    More than 6 in 10 registered voters nationwide say they would definitely not vote for Donald Trump or Sarah Palin for president in 2012, significantly more than say the same about possible Republican candidates Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, or about President Barack Obama.

    This is not really surprising but I doubt it means much. I doubt Sarah Palin or Donald Trump will be candidates for the GOP nomination for President.

    What is most interesting to me is that 46% of Americans polled say they will NOT vote for President Obama which is about the same for Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney.

    While the Donald Trump show has been amuzing the past few weeks, it has served as an outlet for Americans who have decided that they do not wish to re-elect President Obama. There are sufficient Republican canddates in Huckabee and Romney who can make a credible run against the President. I, also believe, there will be other candidates who will emerge within the next 30-60 days who have accomplished records that can also be viewed as viable candidates, including Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie and Paul Ryan.

    Trump’s attention-grabbing, high-visibility statements and his ability to generate large amounts of news coverage cut two ways. On the one hand, Trump has undeniably dominated news coverage of the Republican race in the last several weeks, vaulting him into the middle of political and election news discussion and coverage. On the other hand, Trump’s ability to generate publicity apparently has its costs, as his image has turned more negative and as more than 6 in 10 voters across the country already say they would definitely not vote for him.

    Trump also faces apparent obstacles in his efforts to gain the Republican nomination, should he decide to run. Almost half of Republican registered voters at this point say they would definitely not vote for him, the highest of any of the four possible GOP candidates measured in this survey.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 West Virginia GOP Poll Watch: Hucakbee 24% Trump 24% Palin 13% Romney 11%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mike Huckabee – 73% Vs. 10%
    • Sarah Palin – 67% Vs. 18%
    • Newt Gingrich – 57% Vs. 20%
    • Mitt Romney – 51% Vs. 23%
    • Donald Trump – 47% Vs. 33%

    The GOP Primary:

    • Huckabee – 24%
    • Trump – 24%
    • Palin – 13%
    • Romney – 11%
    • Gingrich – 9%
    • Pawlenty – 4%
    • Bachmann – 3%
    • Paul – 3%

    As the GOP field narrows in the next 30 days, we will see how the numbers start to move. As Karl Rove said yesterday, a GOP candidate cannot wait more than another 30-60 days to begin raising sufficient money to run their campaign. And, major GOP donors are waiting on the sidelines, waiting for the field to firm up.

  • Barack Obama,  Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Video: The First Lap of the Presidential Race

    Pundit Dick Morris offers his analysis of the Presidential race such as it is today

    I agree with Dick and disagree as well.

    Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels should he decide to run (watch his D.C. speech next week, May 4th at the American Enterprise Institute), will give Mitt Romney fits in the right of center and moderate wing of the GOP. Most of the big GOP donors will pull any of their money away from a late-starting race of Mike Huckabee.

    The race will be between Daniels, Huckabee and Romney.

    If Daniels runs Donald Trump will not be a factor in the race. If he does not, look for Huckabee to jump in with the Tea Party and battle Trump and Romney.

    Everyone else at this point, including Sarah Palin, is noise.

    With regards to President Obama, the economy has not dramatically improved and unless gasoline prices drop precipitously, he is looking like a failed, one term President.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 South Carolina GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 17.8% Romney 16.1% Trump 9.9% Palin 8.6%

    According to the latest Winthrop University, South Carolina Poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mike Huckabee – 59% Vs. 11.1%
    • Mitt Romney – 53.6% Vs. 16.5%
    • Sarah Palin – 47.9% Vs. 32.3%
    • Newt Gingrich – 45.4% Vs. 23.1%

    The GOP Primary:

    • Mike Huckabee – 17.8%
    • Mitt Romney – 16.1%
    • Donald Trump – 9.9%
    • Sarah Palin – 4.1%
    • Newt Gingrich – 4.9%

    Who do you think will be the eventual nominee?

    • Mitt Romney – 21.4%
    • Mike Huckabee – 8.3%
    • Donald Trump – 7.3%
    • Newt Gingrich – 4.9%
    • Sarah Palin – 4.1%

    This is a good poll for Mitt Romney and demonstrates he continues to be competitive in South Carolina. Keeping in mind the GOP primary calendar and assuming Mike Huckabee runs, Mitt would be coming off a loss to Huckabee in Iowa and a win in New Hampshire. Romney would have the edge in Nevada due to his Mormon influence in neighboring Utah, which leaves South Carolina as a real test of his strength.

    Now, should Mitch Daniels decide to run and splits the vote, Mike Huckabee would then likely be the favorite in South Carolina.

    Over the next three weeks, the GOP field will be solidifying and then the polls will get serious.

  • Donald Trump,  Michele Bachmann,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 South Carolina GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 20% Romney 18% Trump 13% Palin 10%

    According to the latest ARG Poll.

    • Mike Huckabee – 20%
    • Mitt Romney – 18%
    • Newt Gingrich – 9%
    • Donald Trump – 13%
    • Sarah Palin – 10%
    • Michele Bachmann – 5%

    Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in South Carolina (453 Republicans, 144 independents, and 3 Democrats).

    Sample Dates: April 18-23, 2011

    Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

    So, the race is on in South Carolina, should Mike Huckabee decide to run for the Presidency.

    Exit question: Where will Huck’s votes go if he decides NOT to run? How about Sarah Palins?

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rudy Giuliani

    President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Poll Watch: Romney 32% Trump 17% Giuliani 8% Gingrich 8% Huckabee 8% Paul 8%

    According to the latest ARG Poll.

    The poll was conducted April 16 – 21 with 600 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error is 4%.

    • Mitt Romney – 32%
    • Donald Trump – 17%
    • Newt Gingrich – 8%
    • Rudy Giuliani – 8%
    • Mike Huckabee – 8%

    With Mike Huckabee’s lead in Iowa, and Mitt Romney’s lead in New Hampshire, it looks like a stalemate until the Nevada caucuses, South Carolina and Florida primary elections. If no other candidates step forward soon, would the GOP consider a tag team of Romney and Huckabee?

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    President 2012: Anyone But Mitt Romney?

    As most Flapsblog.com readers know I have never been particularly amored with Mitt Romney and his run for the Presidency – both in 2008 and in the coming campaign. Jennifer Rubin over at the Washington Post interviewed Michael Graham who has put up this website AnyoneButMitt.com.

    His rationale is pretty much the CW knock on Mitt Romney. You know RomneyCare, his numerous Flip Flops on the issues, the inauthenticity.

    There are a lot of Republicans so desperate to end the disaster that is the Obama administration that they’d support ANYONE if they thought he/she would win in November 2012. (Once again, see “Trump, Donald.”) The point of www.anyonebutmitt.com is to make sure GOP primary voters understand early on that Romney is a guaranteed loser.

    Yes he’s slicker, better looking and better prepared today — but this is a good as Romney’s going to get. Other candidates, like [Tim] Pawlenty, [Rick] Santorum, perhaps a [Mitch] Daniels, [Paul] Ryan or [Chris] Christie, have room to grow.

    And, indeed there are other candidates that either have or have not entered the race that will be more appealing than Romney – if they run. What is holding them back?

    President Obama’s perceived weakness.

    My best bet is that Mike Huckabee will run and win in Iowa. Next, will be New Hampshire and whoever beats Romney or comes in a strong second will go forward to South Carolina and Florida.

    Mike Huckabee might be the Anyone But Mitt candidate. However, I would not rule out Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie or Paul Ryan.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 New Hampshire Poll Watch: Romney 47% Vs. Obama 39%

    According to the latest Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Poll.

    Of the Republican candidates expected to seek the presidential nomination, only Mitt Romney received a plurality of support. Barack Obama received a majority of the vote in matchups against Sarah Palin and Donald Trump. The Republican who performed best against Obama was Colin Powell. Powell was added to the survey in an effort to test the perceived absence of leadership qualities among the Republican candidates and in President Obama. Despite his advanced age and no mention of any presidential aspirations at this time, New Hampshire registered voters in the sample are clearly enamored with the prospect of a Powell candidacy

    New Hampshire is a key battleground state for the race for the 2012 Presidency and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is well positioned, thus far, to beat President Obama. Second place Mike Huckabee trails the President.

    In the polling for Iowa, Mike Huckabee leads while Mitt Romney doesn’t do as well. Iowa is becoming a key battleground state as well.

    How about a deal?

    Both Romney and Huckabee agree to a compact after which Pawlenty, Palin, Gingrich and Trump et. al. all drop out.

    1. Run only positive ads and limit the advertising budget

    2. Whoever wins the most GOP delegates by the end of Super Tuesday is annointed the Republican nominee. The other drops out and endorses the other.

    3. The second place finisher is nominated as Vice President on the ticket.

    4. The Romney-Huckabee or Huckabee-Romney ticket goes into the Spring 2012 as a unified team against President Obama and who ever his Vice President is (I assume it will not be Joe Biden).

    Well, how about it?