• Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 16% Trump 16% Romney 13% Palin 10%



    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Donald Trump debuts in a first-place tie in Gallup’s latest update of Republicans’ preferences for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination among potential contenders. Trump ties Mike Huckabee at 16%, with Mitt Romney close behind at 13%. Sarah Palin is the only other potential Republican candidate to earn double-digit support.

    Again, another national poll that does not reflect the reality of early state GOP caucuses and primary elections.

    But, the fact that Donald Trump is polling better than Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty cannot give each of these declared candidates much pleasure.

    With Ed Rollins, Mike Huckabee’s former 2008 Presidential campaign manager leaking that he thought Huck would make the run, folks looking at these polls will have to consider his numerous first place finishes as being significant. If and when Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin drop out of potential candidacies then the heads up battle between Huckabee and Romney will be the race – unless Mitch Daniels enters the race as the Fred Thompson of 2012.

    So, what does this all mean?

    Trump’s strong showing in Republican nomination preferences is partly a function of his high profile. Currently, the top vote-getters are generally the best-known Republicans. Lesser-known potential candidates such as Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, and Rick Santorum have more limited support on the nomination ballot at this point.

    That is a typical pattern in early nomination preference polls. Once campaigning gets underway in earnest later this year, and after the initial primaries and caucuses next year, some of the currently lesser-known candidates may emerge as stronger candidates, and some of the better-known candidates may fade.

    In fact, the leaders in early nomination polls for the last two presidential election cycles — Joe Lieberman in 2003 and Hillary Clinton in 2007 on the Democratic side and Rudy Giuliani in 2007 on the Republican side — did not eventually win their party’s nomination, with Lieberman and Giuliani having poor showings in the early primaries.

    Giuliani’s performance aside, the early leader in GOP primaries has usually gone on to win the nomination. The lack of a clear front-runner in this year’s field is a distinct departure from prior Republican contests. That situation could still change in the current campaign, since Romney is the only one of the four leading contenders who has taken any formal steps toward running for president.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012: Mike Huckabee a Go for Presidential Run?

    Republican presidential candidates, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (R) and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, spar over the issue of tax cuts while they were governors during the Fox News Presidential Forum at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire January 6, 2008

    Looks like Huck is with polling results showing some good news reconsidering the race for the Presidency.

    Can a man leading most GOP presidential polls turn a 2012 run down in favor of a weekend TV show, a mortgage, and motivational speeches?

    That’s the question confronting Mike Huckabee, the one-time minister turned three-term Arkansas governor and 2008 presidential candidate turned Fox News host.

    While other prospective candidates have been hard at work building their campaign machine, Huckabee has been biding his time, a reluctant candidate who keeps surging in the polls.

    Despite his easygoing—some might say indifferent—approach to the campaign ahead, Gallup polls show that Huckabee enjoys the most intense support in all the GOP field.

    But, with Ed Rollins saying he is a likely go, I would say that all we need as a bat signal for his candidacy is for Chuck Norris to resurface.

    Just as a side note – HuckPAC has been sending me fundraiisng e-mails non-stop for the past few months, whereas Romney and the others have not. Remember I am in California which might be in play with its large number of GOP delegates, late in a GOP primary election contest.

    On to Iowa……

    Exit questions:

    • Who will Sarah Palin endorse?
    • Who will the Tea Party embrace?
  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Iowa Poll Watch: Obama 45% Huckabee 45% – Obama 45% Vs Romney 41%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 46% Vs. 48%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mitt Romney – 36% Vs. 44%
    • Mike Huckabee – 41% Vs. 43%
    • Newt Gingrich – 24% Vs. 56%
    • Sarah Palin – 29% Vs. 63%

    General Election Head to Head:

    • Obama – 45% Vs. Romney 41%
    • Obama – 45% Vs. Huckabee 45%
    • Obama – 53% Vs. Palin – 36%
    • Obama – 51% Vs. Trump – 35%
    • Obama – 50% Vs. Gingrich – 39%
    • Obama – 43% Vs. Romney – 27% Vs. Trump – 21% (as an independent)

    Iowa like Larry Sabato mentioned this morning may indeed be in play for race for 2012.

    The entire PPP Poll is here.

    When PPP last polled Iowa in early January, President Obama was enjoying a bit of a surge in popularity following the lame-duck session of Congress. He has since slipped, and his small leads over his main prospective challengers have accordingly closed. Half of Iowans approved of the president’s job performance three months ago, and 43% disapproved. But he is now slightly underwater, as nationwide, with only 46% approving and 48% disapproving. The slippage has come across the board. In January, 13% of Republicans approved and only 8% of Democrats disapproved, but those numbers are now reversed, while independents have moved from 49-40 to 41-50.

    The good news is that the Republicans have all gotten slightly less popular as well, and none is better liked than the president. But re-election bids are more a mandate on the incumbent than the challenger, and a slightly unpopular incumbent against a slightly unpopular challenger usually produces a tie.

    Looks to me that Iowa voters will be comfortable with either Mike Huckabee who won the 2008 Iowa GOP caucuses and leads in the polls there for 2012 or Mitt Romney who has been showing strength in New Hampshire and Florida. It also looks like Iowa may be a key battleground state which is surprising to me.

    Does the Iowa trend mean that other battleground fronts may open for President Obama? Maybe like Pennsylvania and New Mexico?

    Also, an exit question to ponder: Might Romney and Huckabee make an early deal and be the 2012 ticket? It has happened before, thinking Reagan – Bush.

    Stay tuned…..

  • Donald Trump,  Michele Bachmann,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rudy Giuliani,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 18% Romney 17% Gingrich 12% Trump 10% Bachmann 9% Giuliani 8% Palin 4%

    According to the latest ARG Iowa Poll.

    Interesting to me is how well Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani do in relation to Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann who is a native Iowan.

    But, polling in Iowa is tough because it is a caucus state and not a primary election.

    Mike Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 and continues to lead the race. Will we have a repeat race between Huck and Romney or will Mitt concede Iowa and concentrate on Florida?

  • Barack Obama,  Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Barack Obama 46% Vs. Mitt Romney 45%

    According to the latest McClatchy-Marist Poll.

    When given the choice between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and the president, voters divide. 46% of registered voters say they would back the president while 45% say they would cast their ballot for Romney. Nine percent are undecided.

    When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in January, Mr. Obama had a 13 percentage point lead over Romney. At that time, a slim majority — 51% — said they would vote for the president while 38% thought they would back Romney. 11% were undecided.

    The president has lost ground among independent voters. Currently a plurality — 45% — back Romney while 42% support Obama. 13% are undecided. Previously, the president held a 10 percentage point lead over Romney.

    And, what about if Mike Huckabee is the Republican nominee?

    When paired with former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, President Obama has a slight lead. 48% of voters say they would support the president in this hypothetical contest while 43% believe they would back Huckabee. Nine percent are undecided. However, Huckabee has narrowed the gap. In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 12 percentage points separated the two. In January, half of voters — 50% — said Obama was their candidate while 38% said the same about Huckabee. 12% were undecided.

    Other GOP potential nominees don’t do so well against President Obama, including Sarah Palin (56% Vs. 34%)  and Donald Trump (54% Vs. 38%).

    The GOP Field Head to Head (Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents):

    • Mitt Romney – 18%
    • Mike Huckabee – 17%
    • Donald Trump – 13%
    • Rudy Giuliani – 9%
    • Sarah Palin – 8%
    • Ron Paul – 7%
    • Newt Gingrich – 4%
    • Michele Bachmann – 3%
    • Mitch Daniels – 2%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 2%

    Other notable findings:

    • Romney and Huckabee run evenly among Republicans with 19% each.
    • Huckabee is the favorite among Tea Party supporters with 20%.
    • Trump tops the list among Republican leaning independents with 18%.

    This is another national poll, so you really cannot read too much into it except that President Obama is not doing well against two Republican nominees who have not really started to campaign and one who has not even decided to run for the Presidency.

    President Barack Obama has officially announced that he will seek re-election next year, but he faces an electorate that still needs convincing. According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, a plurality of registered voters nationwide — 44% — say they definitely plan to vote against Mr. Obama in 2012. 37% report they definitely plan to vote for him, and 18% are unsure.

    Despite the president’s transition into campaign mode, little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last asked it in November. At that time, 48% of voters said they will not support the president in his re-election bid while 36% thought they would. 16%, at the time, were unsure.

  • Barack Obama,  Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama 49% Vs Romney 45%

    According to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Poll.

    This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone April 14-17, 2011, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

    Again, this is a national poll which, I have mentioned before, means little in the grand scheme of polling for the Presidency. What is important here is that the narrative from the left-leaning Washington Post is that President Obama is vulnerable because of the economy.

    Deepening economic pessimism has pushed down President Obama’s approval rating to a near record low, but he holds an early advantage over prospective 2012 rivals in part because of widespread dissatisfaction with Republican candidates, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

    In the survey, 47 percent approve of the job Obama is doing, down seven points since January. Half of all Americans disapprove of his job performance, with 37 percent saying they “strongly disapprove,” nearly matching the worst level of his presidency.

    Driving the downward movement in Obama’s standing are renewed concerns about the economy and fresh worry about rising prices, particularly for gasoline. Despite signs of economic growth, 44 percent of Americans see the economy as getting worse, the highest percentage to say so in more than two years.

    The toll on Obama is direct: 57 percent disapprove of the job the president is doing dealing with the economy, tying his highest negative rating when it comes to the issue. And the president is doing a bit worse among politically important independents.

    Then, there is the continuing narrative from the LEFT, that despite Obama’s problems with the economy, the GOP field is doing worse. Well, perhaps.

    If Obama is running into headwinds, however, his potential Republican opponents face serious problems, as well. Less than half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they are satisfied with the field of GOP candidates.

    That field is still taking shape, but the sentiment is a big falloff from four years ago, when nearly two-thirds of Republicans were satisfied with their options.

    Lack of enthusiasm for the candidates came in other measures, as well. When Republicans and GOP-leaners were asked who they would vote for in a primary or caucus, only former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney registered in double digits, with 16 percent. More than double that number expressed no opinion and an additional 12 percent volunteered “none” or “no one.”

    Businessman Donald Trump (8 percent), former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (6 percent) and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin (5 percent) were the only other names volunteered by more than 2 percent of respondents.

    The fact is the GOP is keeping its powder dry and waiting to tag team President Obama. This is a smart strategy.

    As Obama and the Democrats gear up their campaign (which, by the way, will only be in about 10 states), the GOP field is maturing. Frankly, a number of potential candidates will not be around past two or three primary electoral contests.

    On the bright side of this poll, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are within the margin of error nationally and they really have not started to campaign.

    And, the attention the past two weeks has been on the surrogate Donald Trump who has been attacking Obama mercilessly without any of the baggage falling upon Romney or Huckabee. The question will be how much will Obama be able to take before attacking Trump with surrogates?

    Again, not too much in this poll, except that President Obama is vulnerable and especially vulnerable on the economy.

  • Mike Huckabee,  President 2012

    President 2012: Is Mike Huckabee Gearing Up in South Carolina?



    Apparently so.

    “You have to have South Carolina to win,” Mike Huckabee said last month during a stop here on his latest book tour. Or was it really just a “book” tour?

    The former Arkansas governor has been clear that he will not take another stab at the presidency unless he thinks he can win. As he gauges his chances of mounting a successful White House run, no state looms larger in his calculus than South Carolina.

    And his most recent visit to the first-in-the-South primary state gave him some reason to be encouraged.

    As his bus rolled through the familiar Midlands and Upstate countryside, Huckabee was greeted by cheering supporters who gathered at stops from Florence to Greenville, waving signs from his 2008 White House run. Their message: they have not forgotten him, and they are still energized.

    Huckabee also received some more discreet — yet equally enthusiastic – – encouragement when he huddled behind closed doors with some of his most influential supporters in the state: former South Carolina Governor David Beasley, senior adviser Mike Campbell, HuckPAC executive director Hogan Gidley and former South Carolina campaign spokesman Adam Piper.

    “There was a very candid and frank conversation about 2008 and about things we could’ve done better,” Piper related. “And we talked about 2012.”

    If he runs, Huckabee might be poised to repeat his 2008 victory in the Iowa caucuses. But his challenge figures to be steeper in South Carolina, where he finished second last time around to eventual Republican nominee John McCain.

    Although Huckabee apparently has not yet made up his mind about another White House run, his South Carolina team-in-waiting is unanimous in agreeing that he could pull it off, even if he gets a later start than his rivals.

    Well, Huckabee has been leading in almost all statewide polls. With the likelihood that Sarah Palin will NOT be a candidate, Huck might just give it a go. Why not?

    The greatest criticism on the former Arkansas Governor has been his fundraising ability. But, he has been visible on that front lately.For example, his PAC has been sending my California-centric e-mails now for a few months – a few each week.

    Stay tuned…..

  • Barack Obama,  Chris Christie,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rand Paul,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Barack Obama 48% Vs. Mike Huckabee 43%, Barack Obama 47% Vs. Mitt Romney 41%


    Chart from Pollster

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 47% Vs. 48%

    GOP Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mike Huckabee – 36% Vs. 42%
    • Mitt Romney – 32% Vs. 43%
    • Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 61%
    • Newt Gingrich – 28% vs. 55%
    • Rand Paul – 26% Vs. 45%
    • Chris Christie – 28% Vs. 30%

    General Election Head to Head:

    • Obama – 48% Vs. Huckabee – 43%
    • Obama – 47% Vs. Romney 41%
    • Obama – 54% Vs. Palin – 36%
    • Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 38%
    • Obama – 48% Vs. Paul – 38%
    • Obama – 48% Vs Christie – 39%

    Again, this is an aggregate national poll but it shows a couple of things:

    • Obama has a negative approval rating
    • This GOP candidate field is weak against the President in the general election.

    Additionally, President Obama is doing well with independent voters.

    The president wins by racking up the independent vote by double-digit margins against everyone but Christie, who holds him to a seven-point advantage. The others trail with this group by ten (Huckabee and Romney) to a whopping 28 points (Palin). Obama also pads his leads by getting double-digit GOP support against Gingrich and Palin.

    If the GOP wants to beat Obama in 2012, they had better develop a better candidate field, consolidate behind him or her and be ready to hit the ground running after Labor Day 2011. The delay in the GOP selection process may allow say a Rep. Paul Ryan or Governor Mitch Daniels to jump into the field and become the fresh face of the GOP.

    The GOP needs such a candidate, if they wish to win next year.

  • Barack Obama,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Florida Poll Watch: Mitt Romney 43% Vs. Barack Obama 42%

    According to the latest Suffolk University Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 41% Vs. 48%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • President Barack Obama – 48% Vs. 44%
    • Senator Bill Nelson (D) – 43% Vs. 24%
    • Senator Marco Rubio (R) – 41% Vs. 30%
    • Jeb Bush – 53% Vs. 33%

    GOP Head to Head:

    • Romney – 33%
    • Huckabee – 14%
    • Gingrich – 9%
    • Trump – 8%
    • Palin – 8%
    • Barbour – 4%
    • Pawlenty – 3%
    • Paul – 2%
    • Bachmann -1%

    General Election:

    • Romney – 43% Vs.Obama – 42%
    • Obama – 44% Vs. Huckabee – 41%
    • Obama – 41% Vs. Pawlenty – 28%
    • Obama – 45% Vs. Bachmann – 30%
    • Obama – 47% Vs. Gingrich – 36%
    • Obama – 52% Vs. Palin – 34%
    • Obama – 49% Vs. Trump – 34%
    • Obama – 47% Vs. Barbour – 26%
    • Obama – 48% Vs. Paul – 30%

    This is a very good poll for Mitt Romney. Everyone knows that Romney will likely win New Hampshire, lose the next primary in South Carolina and likely win Nevada. So, who will have the Big Mo going into Florida and then into Super Tuesday?

    If Romney continues to poll Florida well, Mike Huckabee may not even declare his candidacy, acknowledging a difficult race against Mitt.

    Note that Romney runs well against President Obama in this key battleground state and today the race is a toss-up within the margin of error.

  • Herman Cain,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Georgia GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 23% Gingrich 22% Cain 16% Palin 10% Romney 8%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mike Huckabee – 75% Vs. 14%
    • Newt Gingrich – 62% Vs. 23%
    • Sarah Palin – 58% Vs. 31%
    • Herman Cain – 44% Vs. 23%
    • Mitt Romney – 50% Vs. 32%

    Again Mike Huckabee is demonstrating his strength in the deep South. His favorable rating is better than former Georgia Rep. and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.

    Head to Head:

    • Huckabee – 23%
    • Gingrich – 22%
    • Cain – 16%
    • Palin – 10%
    • Romney – 8%
    • Bachmann – 4%
    • Paul – 3%
    • Pawlenty – 3%

    If former speaker Newt Gingrich cannot win in his own home state, one has to wonder why he is bothering to run at all. But, if you take native Georgian Herman Cain out of the poll, Gingrich does beat Huckabee.

    Cain’s 16% standing is pretty impressive for several reasons. His third place finish comes despite having 15% less name recognition than the rest of the quartet. And even though he’s competing with a second home state candidate he still does better in Georgia than Sarah Palin does in Alaska (15%), Gary Johnson does in New Mexico (13%), or Rick Santorum does in Pennsylvania (11%). The fact that Cain is the first choice of so many of the people who are familiar with him bodes well for his prospects if he can muster the resources to run a serious campaign.

    If you take Cain out of the mix in Georgia Gingrich does lead the way with 31% to 24% for Huckabee, 10% for Palin, 8% for Romney, 5% for Bachmann, 4% for Paul and Pawlenty, and 3% for Haley Barbour.

    The entire poll is here.