Poll Watch: Romney Takes the Lead in the Electoral College for First Time

Posted Posted in Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Polling

Real Clear Politics Electoral College Poll Map

For the first time, Real Clear Politics and their poll averages has Mitt Romney beating President Obama in the Electoral College.

The map is similar to my map from several months ago.

Electoral College August 11 2012 Does Paul Ryan Help Mitt Romney in the Electoral College?

This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com

But, what is interesting is that a number of states that many have thought in the Team Obama camp, may be in play – most notably Pennsylvania and Michigan.

The battleground state polls after the Monday night debate, should deliver a clearer picture of what will happen on November 6th.

By the way, the magic number of Electoral College votes to win is 270.

Gallup Poll: Obama Losing Momentum With Voters

Posted Posted in Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012

Gallup Presidential Poll among likely votersPresident Obama’s loss of momentum traces back to the first Presidential debate when Mitt Romney schooled the President. But, the latest Gallup Poll is even more telling.

Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday.

While Romney’s four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup’s seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior to that debate — regarded as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it — Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters.

The latest result, from Oct. 9-15, is based on 2,723 likely voters drawn from more than 3,100 registered voters.

And, here is the registered voters poll chart – note the trend.

Gallup Registered Voters Presidential PollGallup has also done a comparison between Obama Vs. McCain and Obama Vs. Romney.

Here is the chart:

Gallup Poll Presidential Preferences 2008 vs 2012Here is the summary of the differences between 2008 and 2012:

Degreed voters backing off Obama: In 2008, Obama led McCain among postgraduate educated voters by a 30-point margin, while he ran roughly even with McCain among those with lower levels of education. Today, Obama’s postgraduate advantage has been cut to 14 points and he trails Romney among college graduates (those with four-year degrees only) by 22 points. His support from high school graduates and those with some college is also down slightly, providing no counterbalance to his major losses among the college educated.

Southern losses: The South gave Obama the least support of any region in 2008, but still split their vote evenly for Obama vs. McCain. Today, Southerners favor Romney by a 22-point margin, the largest shift of any region. Voters in the East are also less supportive, while preferences in the West and Midwest are little changed.

Young voters stick with him: Young voters were an important part of Obama’s 2008 coalition, and in 2012 they continue to support him overwhelmingly, at roughly the same level as four years ago. The difficulty for Obama is that he currently has less support among each older age group, particularly those aged 30 to 49 years.

White support dwindles: Obama lost the white vote in 2008 by 12 percentage points, but that was more than offset by a 72-point lead among nonwhites. Today, Obama has a more daunting 22-point deficit among whites, while his margin over Romney among nonwhites is essentially unchanged.

Men move away: In 2008, Gallup found a 14-point swing in gender preferences for president, with women favoring Obama by a 14-point margin and men tied in their preferences for Obama vs. McCain. Today, there is a 20-point gender gap. Women’s support for Obama shrank to six percentage points, while men favor Romney by 14 points.

So, what does this all mean?

The President is in trouble for re-election. Mitt Romney has been surging since the first Denver  Presidential debate and if Obama does not reverse this course in three weeks there will be a new President come 2013.

Watch the President come out swinging in tonight’s debate.

Obama really has to hit a home run or he is toast.

The USA Today / Gallup Poll Has Romney Leading Obama by 4 Points

Posted Posted in Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Polling

USA Today Gallup Presidential Poll for October 15, 2012

According to the latest USA Today / Gallup Presidential Poll.

Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation’s top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.

As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%, while he leads by 12 points among men.

The battle for women, which was apparent in the speakers spotlighted at both political conventions this summer, is likely to help define messages the candidates deliver at the presidential debate Tuesday night and in the TV ads they air during the final 21 days of the campaign. As a group, women tend to start paying attention to election contests later and remain more open to persuasion by the candidates and their ads.

That makes women, especially blue-collar “waitress moms” whose families have been hard-hit by the nation’s economic woes, the quintessential swing voters in 2012’s close race.

The conventional wisdom is that President Obama will be the aggressor at tomorrow night’s town-hall style Presidential debate. But, there is risk to that approach, especially with women.

In any case, Mitt Romney is in far better shape on the eve of the second Presidential debate than he was before the first.

Stay tuned…..

Obama Steps Into It with Big Bird Campaign Ad

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Barack Obama, Big Bird, Mitt Romney

Sesame Street tells Obama to leave Big Bird aloneThe Obama campaign ad was released this morning, but the Big Bird folks want Obama to pull the ad.

Big Bird, it seems, isn’t thrilled about his cameo in the presidential race.

The folks at Sesame Street are asking the Obama campaign to pull down a TV ad released Tuesday that mocks Mitt Romney for vowing to yank the subsidy to PBS.

At the presidential debate in Denver last week, Mr. Romney said he would end the subsidy in view of the nation’s fiscal troubles.

“I love Big Bird,” the Republican challenger said “… But I’m not going to keep on spending money on things to borrow money from China to pay for.”

Up went an ad by team Obama called “Big Bird’’ that suggests Mr. Romney is targeting children’s programming rather than legitimate threats to people’s economic interests.

The ad shows images of Bernie Madoff and others implicated in various financial and corporate scandals. A narrator then intones: “And the evil genius who towered over them?”

A silhouette of Big Bird flashes on screen.

“Mitt Romney knows it’s not Wall Street you have to worry about, it’s Sesame Street,” the narrator said.

The ad is airing on national cable and broadcast TV, in time slots devoted to comedy shows, the Obama campaign said.

Sesame Street isn’t amused. Sesame Workshop, a nonprofit educational organization that produces and owns the show, issued a statement Tuesday saying “we do not endorse candidates or participate in political campaigns. We have approved no campaign ads, and as is our general practice, have requested that the ad be taken down.”

This is the biggest Obama GAFFE of the Presidential campaign so far.

The ad trivializes the Presidency and really is unbecoming to President Obama. His campaign should pull the ad and apologize.

In response, the Romney campaign issued the following:

The choice in this election is becoming more clear each day. Four years ago, President Obama said that if you don’t have a record to run on, ‘you make a big election about small things.’ With 23 million people struggling for work, incomes falling and gas prices soaring, Americans deserve more from their president.

Obama Campaign Gets Serious with Big Bird Ad?

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Barack Obama, President 2012

[youtube]http://youtu.be/bZxs09eV-Vc[/youtube]

Of course, the Obama Campaign folks will say that this is just a light-hearted dig at Romney. But, the fact that in their press release they did not list the states where this purported television ad will air, everyone suspects that this was a “trial balloon.”

The add is a pretty stupid move when the President just had his ass kicked on the issues in the first debate with Mitt Romney.

I mean, really, 8 per cent unemployment for 44 months of his Presidency and a stagnant economy, then the President attacks Romney over Big Bird.

Obama and his campaign are flailing….

Memo to Mitt Romney: Go Large or Go Home

Posted Posted in Charles Krauthammer, Mitt Romney

Real Clear Politics Presidential PollReal Clear Politics Poll

Charles Krauthammer could not have said it better to Mitt Romney.

Mitt, you are behind in the polls and blaming pollsters for oversampling Democrats is not going to cut it.

You have allowed the Obama campaign to cast you as the County Club Fat Cat that everyone loves to hate. In the meantime, you have rolled over and talked about what?

Certainly not the fact Obama’s Presidency has been a disaster both economically and in foreign policy.

There is still time to turn this race around. The country is a mess and voters want an alternative.

Go all in and show them some fire in the belly – why you want to be President.

Or, release your donors to support other Republican POLS who want to fight for America.