The 2012 Republican presidential primary battle shifts to Florida, where Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are locked in a tight battle. And, already, Republicans are starting to have visions of a Newt candidacy — and they don’t like what they see. That includes an electoral map that could look quite different — and much worse for them — than the one Romney or another Republican might compete on.
Larry Sabato over at the University of Virginia Center for Politics has this excellent analysis. Long and short of it is: Newt Gingrich is more of a gamble to beat President Obama, should he win the Republican nomination.
To be clear, President Obama is vulnerable. His approval rating – 46% approve, 48.6% disapprove, according to the RealClearPolitics approval average — is middling. And against Mitt Romney, Obama’s vulnerability shows: in Pollster.com’s average of national polling, Obama leads Romney just 46.5% to 45.3%. But against Gingrich, the average tells a very different story — Obama, at 49.9%, leads Gingrich (39.1%) by more than 10 points.
Granted, there are outliers: Gallup on Tuesday had both Romney and Gingrich running evenly with Obama, both down 50% to 48%. But the bulk of the polling data indicates that Romney, at least at this point, is the stronger candidate against Obama.
Why does Romney fare better? Well, the best candidate against Obama remains “generic Republican” — that make-believe person who leads Obama by a single slim point, according to RealClearPolitics. Let’s be honest here: Romney’s the closest thing out there to a generic Republican available. He is not going to steal the presidency away from the incumbent if Obama’s having a good year and the economy is solid. Rather, if the country is ready to make a change, then Romney would be a credible alternative. The national polling numbers bear that out; they also show that Gingrich, at least right now, is not seen as a similarly acceptable alternative.
In other words, in the key battleground states of Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa and Florida, Gingrich looks like a risk to LOSE these states.
Here is my Electoral College Map from some months ago:
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
Sobato and his staff make the argument that Gingrich will perform worse (at least he is polling worse now) than Romney in the states, the GOP needs to win to beat Obama.
This may very well be true, and the GOP Establishment have their own maps and are looking at the Senate and House race polls across the nation.
Romney is SAFE and Gingrich MAY underperform Obama.
But, what does the GOP base want in a candidate? A generic Republican, Romney nominee or a firebrand, big idea guy, like Gingrich.
Guess we will find out next tuesday in Florida.
The Republican Party Establishment REALLY does NOT like Newt Gingrich.
Watch the video below and listen to former Kansas Senator Bob Dole.
As usual, I will be covering the debate with my comments on Twitter. Follow me @Flap.
Pretty pathetic as California Democrat Rep. Nancy Pelosi backtracks.
Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s office on Wednesday said the minority leader doesn’t have any dirt on Newt Gingrich.
Pelosi has suggested in two interviews that she knows something that could prevent Gingrich from becoming president, but her office said the California Democrat doesn’t have any secrets about Gingrich, who has shot to the top of national Republican polls after winning the South Carolina primary.
“The ‘something’ Leader Pelosi knows is that Newt Gingrich will not be President of the United States. She made that clear last night,” Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill said in a statement.
“Leader Pelosi previously made a reference to the extensive amount of information that is in the public record, including the comprehensive committee report with which the public may not be fully aware,” Hammill said.
Pelosi made headlines on Tuesday when she told CNN Gingrich would not be president, and that “there’s something I know.”
In an interview in December, Pelosi also drew attention by suggesting there was information that could come out of her office that could damage Gingrich. Pelosi suggested it was related to the House ethics investigation of Gingrich; Pelosi served on the panel looking into Gingrich.
“One of these days we’ll have a conversation about Newt Gingrich,” Pelosi said at the time. “When the time is right. … I know a lot about him. I served on the investigative committee that investigated him, four of us locked in a room in an undisclosed location for a year. A thousand pages of his stuff.”
But on Wednesday, Hammill repeated that all of the information from the investigation is in the public realm.
You know darn well that if there was any additional dirt, Mitt Romney would be using it now in Florida.
Pelosi and the Democrats are just doing a little misdirection.
Newt Gingrich campaigning today in FloridaAccording to the latest PPP Poll.
PPP’s first post-South Carolina poll in Florida finds Newt Gingrich with a small lead. He’s at 38% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Rick Santorum, and 10% for Ron Paul.
Gingrich has gained 12 points since a PPP poll conducted in Florida a week ago. Romney has dropped 8 points. Paul and Santorum have pretty much remained in place. Their favorability numbers show similar trendlines. Gingrich’s has increased 8 points from +15 (51/36) to +23 (57/34). Meanwhile Romney’s has declined 13 points from +44 (68/24) to +31 (61/30).
This is the third poll today that has Newt Gingrich besting Mitt Romney in Florida.
What a come back!
Day By Day by Chris MuirChris, we saw the power of the internet on the resurgence of Newt Gingrich in South Carolina. The thumping of Mitt Romney was not driven by the GOP Establishment with paid television or direct mail advertising – but by the “live” events = the television debates and the interconnection of the RIGHT on the internet.
This will be the same as the GOP Presidential nomination race moves to Florida today.
Watch Mitt Romney to attempt to buy a narrative on the MSM political sites and the cable networks, including Fox News. The one at the moment is that Newt Gingrich is a “disgrace.”
I don’t think this tactic will work since the narrative for Romney is already engrained in the internet driven GOP base. Romney = out of touch with average American voters.
I am going out on a limb and today endorsing former House Speaker Newt Gingrich for the Republican Presidential nomination.
Newt was not my first choice or even my second for the GOP nod, but now, as Sarah Palin says, it is a time for choosing and I am choosing Newt Gingrich.
As you readers know, I have never been a fan of Mitt Romney. I was not a supporter of his in 2008 and found his campaign tactics then, as they are now, reprehensible.
Romney is NOT a conservative, out of touch with most americans and a nominal Republican = RINO (Republican in Name Only). He is a big government, flip-flopping, progressive pseudo-conservative. But, this endorsement is not why I am NOT supporting Mitt Romney.
This endorsement is, why, in my judgment, Newt Gingrich is a candidate for whom I will be voting for in the California June Primary election.
I believe, Newt, would fight for conservatives, the conservative movement and people like me from the White House. He would represent me, my children and soon to be born grandchildren. Newt cares about the future.
Gingrich has a vision for American and generates BIG ideas. God knows, we need both.
Yeah, Gingrich has some personal baggage, been wrong on some issues and some foibles. Don’t we all? I mean, after all, look at President Obama, his background in Hawaii and his dysfunctional family.
The question is: who in the Republican field could I see occupying the White House, leading America back to the “shining city on the hill”, while limiting the role of government in American’s lives?
The answer is Newt Gingrich.
Day By Day by Chris MuirChris, Mitt Romney is NOT a conservative but a Republican “lite.”
This is why Newt Gingrich is surging in South Carolina polls. Despite his negative baggage, conservatives want someone who will “fight” for them – not flip flop to another position when the going gets tough.
I suspect after Saturday, the Republican Presidential nomination race will re-start as a one on one of Romney vs. Gingrich.
Newt Gingrich lacks the moral character to serve as President, his second ex-wife Marianne told ABC News, saying his campaign positions on the sanctity of marriage and the importance of family values do not square with what she saw during their 18 years of marriage.
In her first television interview since the 1999 divorce, to be broadcast tonight on Nightline, Marianne Gingrich, a self-described conservative Republican, said she is coming forward now so voters can know what she knows about Gingrich.
In her most provocative comments, the ex-Mrs. Gingrich said Newt sought an “open marriage” arrangement so he could have a mistress and a wife.
She said when Gingrich admitted to a six-year affair with a Congressional aide, he asked her if she would share him with the other woman, Callista, who is now married to Gingrich.
“And I just stared at him and he said, ‘Callista doesn’t care what I do,'” Marianne Gingrich told ABC News. “He wanted an open marriage and I refused.”
Marianne described her “shock” at Gingrich’s behavior, including how she says she learned he conducted his affair with Callista “in my bedroom in our apartment in Washington.”
Will this old story have ANY effect on the GOP Presidential race?
Republican presidential candidate, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich shakes hands with supporters while standing with his wife Callista Gingrich in South Carolina todayAccording to two new polls just released this morning.
- Newt Gingrich 33%
- Mitt Romney 32%
- Ron Paul 19%
- Rick Santorum 9%
- Rick Perry 4%
- Newt Gingrich 32%
- Mitt Romney 29%
- Ron Paul 15%
- Rick Santorum 11%
- Rick Perry 3%
And, now with Rick Perry withdrawing will Newt Gingrich finally become the anti-Romney?
This is a 20 year old story, but will likely have some effect on Gingrich’s performance on the South Carolina GOP Presidential primary election on Saturday.
Marianne Gingrich has said she could end her ex-husband’s career with a single interview.
Earlier this week, she sat before ABCNEWS cameras, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned.
She spoke to ABCNEWS reporter Brian Ross for two hours, and her explosive revelations are set to rock the trail.
But now a “civil war” has erupted inside of the network, an insider claims, on exactly when the confession will air!
ABCNEWS suits determined it would be “unethical” to run the Marianne Gingrich interview so close to the South Carolina Primary, a curious decision, one insider argued, since the network has aggressively been reporting on other candidates.
A decision was tentatively made to air the interview next Monday, after all votes have been counted.
Gingrich canceled a press conference on Wednesday to deal with the matter.
“He believes that what he says in public and how he lives don’t have to be connected,” Marianne Gingrich, Newt’s wife of 18 years, explained to ESQUIRE last year.
So, the interview of Marianne Gingrich will air on television tonight and Newt has already appeared on the Today Show.Will South Carolina voters see this for what it is = a political hit by a bitter ex-wife?
Hard to say.
Guess we will see in the South Caarolina exit polls on Saturday.