GOP Presidential Poll Watch: Pawlenty Begins Race for 2012 with Only 41% Name Recognition

Posted Posted in Polling, President 2012, Tim Pawlenty


According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who this week became the first major Republican to announce the formation of a presidential exploratory committee, has 41% name recognition among Republicans nationwide. He trails a number of other potential GOP presidential candidates on this measure.

Let’s face it, former Minnesota Governor tim Pawlenty will NOT be the 2012 Presidential nominee. Pawlenty is really running for either the 2012 Vice Presidential nomination or for 2016 when there will not be an incumbent President running for re-election.

Here is a chart on intensity scores:

Here, Tim Pawlenty is tied with Mitt Romney, but Romney will spend Pawlenty under the table. Plus, Romney is assured a primary victory in New Hampshire early on.

The bottom line:

Name recognition is a necessary ingredient in a politician’s race to win his or her party’s nomination for president. The last eight Republicans who won their party’s presidential nomination — John McCain, George W. Bush, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, and Barry Goldwater — were well-known and well-established politicians. Even George W. Bush, who was a state governor with no national experience in the year before he won the Republican nomination, had a recognition score of over 80% when Gallup first measured him in February 1999, albeit aided in part by his famous last name.

Additionally, Barack Obama, who stands as an example of an individual who came from relative obscurity to national prominence, had a name recognition score of over 75% by March 2007, the year before he gained the Democratic nomination.

Pawlenty and Barbour thus face a serious challenge as they begin their quests to gain their party’s nomination. Well under half of their party’s rank-and-file members across the country at this point, less than a year before the first primaries and caucuses take place, know who they are. Both Pawlenty and Barbour, as well as other Republicans who are expected to formally announce their candidacies over the next few months, will be crisscrossing the country for the remainder of the year in an effort to make themselves known — and liked — by potential GOP primary voters. Gallup’s weekly tracking and reporting on the name recognition and Positive Intensity Scores of potential Republican presidential candidates will gauge how successful the candidates are in these endeavors.

President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Huckabee 20% Palin 13% Gingrich 11%

Posted Posted in Polling, President 2012

According to the latest Pew Research Center poll (PDF).

  • 21% Romney
  • 20% Huckabee
  • 13% Palin
  • 11% Gingrich
  • 8% Paul
  • 3% Pawlenty
  • 2% Daniels
  • 2% Santorum
  • 2% Barbour
  • 2% Christie

And, the same poll had President Obama leading a generic GOP nominee: 48% Obama vs. 35% Republican.

Obama Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

  • 58% Vs. 39%

Again, a national poll and there is no GOP frontrunner.

President 2012 Ohio Poll Watch: Obama 46% Vs. Romney 40% – Obama 52% Vs. Palin 36%

Posted Posted in Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Obama Job approval:

  • 47% Approve, 46% Disapprove

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable

  • Mitt Romney – 33% Vs. 43% (-10)
  • Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 59% (-28)
  • Mick Huckabee – 36% Vs. 42% (-6)
  • Newt Gingrich – 24% Vs. 56% (-32)

Head to Head with the President:

  • Obama 50% Vs. Gingrich 38%
  • Obama 48% Vs. Huckabee 41%
  • Obama 52% Vs. Palin 36%
  • Obama 46% Vs. Romney 40%

In the key battleground state of Ohio, President Obama is either leading his GOP opponent by 6 or 16 points. It is becoming clear in poll after poll that if the GOP wants to field a competitive candidate then they better look beyond these four.

I would recommend either Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie and they better gear up quickly.

The entire poll is here (PDF).

President 2012: Will Senator Jim DeMint Endorse Mitt Romney for President?

Posted Posted in Jim DeMint, Mitt Romney, President 2012

Well, Senator DeMint (R-South Carolina) did in 2008, but now there are conditions?
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) “would never consider” endorsing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for president again in 2012 unless Romney repudiates the health reforms he sought as governor, a source close to DeMint said Thursday.

A source close to the conservative icon emphasized that, despite comments to The Hill indicating that Romney shouldn’t shoulder all the political blame for the Massachusetts healthcare plan, DeMint wouldn’t endorse Romney again unless he admits the plan was mistaken.

“It’s obvious Jim was just trying to be nice to the guy he backed over McCain, as many conservatives did in 2008,” the source said. “But he would never consider backing Romney again unless he admits that his Massachusetts healthcare plan was a colossal mistake.”

These quotes from an unnamed source came after the Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin spanked DeMint in this piece this morning.

So has DeMint suddenly decided to make peace with the individual mandate? Perhaps, but that would be a monumental and abrupt shift in his thinking. No, this is pure, opportunistic politics. It’s the sort of thing DeMint normally decries, to the cheers of his base. But Romney backed DeMint and now DeMint is giving Romney cover.

That’s unsurprising in politics, but it’s a major problem for a pol who has carved his identity on principled opposition to nearly every compromise with the left. For DeMint to give Romney a pass on an individual mandate negotiated with the late Sen. Ted Kennedy is a high-risk proposition for DeMint.

His backers and the Republican base more generally are not going to buy the excuse DeMint has offered on RomneyCare. Romney is going to be savaged by the right, and from those very people who have given DeMint his base of support. So the question for DeMint is: Is he willing to risk his own conservative street cred to support a candidate who will be the target of his base’s ire?

And, also spanked by Phil Klein over at the American Spectator.

But beyond being ignorant, DeMint’s comments are dangerous. I’ve long argued that the Massachusetts health care plan is not only toxic to Mitt Romney’s presidential candidacy, but it could prove toxic to the entire Republican Party. If Romney is excused for crafting and signing the Massachusetts health care plan, it significantly undermines the case against ObamaCare and weakens the effort to repeal it. The reason is that opposition to ObamaCare will start to look increasingly political and less about principle. It’s true that a state mandate doesn’t raise the same Constitutional questions as the federal mandate, but it still is government forcing an individual to purchase a product. These comments are especially dangerous coming from DeMint, who is known as a leading conservative and ObamaCare opponent. Let’s hope it’s an isolated incident and not part of a broader trend.

Mitt Romney should NOT be the Republican Party’s Presidential nominee in 2012. RomneyCare and his numerous flip-flops over the decades make him untrustworthy and not worthy of my vote.

Period.

His nomination will undercut the repeal of ObamaCare which should be one of the GOP’s first priorities. ObamaCare will ruin American health care, bust the budget wide open and imperil America’s survival.

As far as Jim DeMint is concerned. He is an OPPORTUNISTIC POL not a Tea Party activist.

Remember how DeMint has promised Indiana Senator Richard Lugar he would not help fund a primary challenge to him in 2012. I mean, Lugar is clearly a RINO, who is old and votes way too left for the modern day GOP. But, DeMint will sit on his hands.

Remember when DeMint funded Chuck DeVore in California against a conservative Carly Fiorina when DeVore had absolutely NO chance of winning?

DeMint is a conservative Senator, but he is a POL like all of the rest and when he supports/endorses Romney, it will just be another example.

President 2012: The Phantom Campaign or Shadow-Boxing for the Presidency

Posted Posted in Larry Sobato, President 2012

Political pundit and Director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, Larry Sobato, updates his January Crystal Ball for the GOP Presidential race for 2012.

Read it all.

Sobato actually paints a fairly dire picture for the Republican Party in attempting to defeat President Obama next year. So, who will the GOP choose?

Unless the nominee is Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie, it will probably NOT matter.

President 2012: Sarah Palin to Visit Israel Next Week

Posted Posted in President 2012, Sarah Palin

Like Mike Huckabee, former Alaska governor Sarah Palin also an undecided GOP Presidential contender is traveling to Israel.
Potential 2012 Republican presidential candidate Sarah Palin is expected to arrive in Israel for a visit next week.

The former Alaska governor and 2008 vice-presidential candidate follows several other prominent republicans who have visited Israel recently, including Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Haley Barbour.

Palin plans to visit Israel for two days, and will meet with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and other members of Israel’s right-wing, including Likud MK Danny Danon, a Danon aide told The Jerusalem Post.

She was also expected to visit the Western Wall and Nazareth during her short stay, according to Army Radio.

Palin will be be attending the India Today Conclave on March 18 and 19. She will be the featured keynote speaker at the closing dinner gala on the 19th where she will share her vision of America.

Looks like Sarah is trying to establish some foreign policy cred – finally. Now, whether she tries to parlay these trips into a run for the White House is another story.