Mike Huckabee

President 2012 MO GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 29% Gingrich 19% Palin 14% Romney 13%

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According to the latest PPP Poll.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

  • Mike Huckabee – 73% Vs. 12%
  • Newt Gingrich – 53% Vs. 24%
  • Sarah Palin – 63% Vs. 27%
  • Mitt Romney – 47% Vs. 32%

Head to Head:

  • Mike Huckabee – 29%
  • Newt Gingrich – 19%
  • Sarah Palin – 14%
  • Mitt Romney – 13%

So, what does it all mean?

  • Mike Huckabee continues to perform well and has been leading most of the polls lately. But, will Huck run?
  • Sarah Palin again is plummeting downward in the polls, even with GOP voters
  • Mitt Romney is the “Biggest Loser” here and it is questionable whether he can win the nomination unless he improves.

One thing these numbers do reinforce is the recent ABC/Washington Post poll that showed Palin’s numbers plummeting even with Republican voters. When we polled Missouri in December Palin was at 25%, so her 14% now represents an 11 point drop in her standing over the last three months. Also while the other GOP frontrunners have seen modest drops in their net favorability since our previous Missouri Republican poll- 5 points for Romney, 3 for Gingrich, and 2 for Huckabee- Palin has seen a much more dramatic 16 point decline from +52 in December at 72/20 to now +36 at 63/27. There’s no doubt that the already limited interest in a Presidential bid from her that Republican voters had is declining even further.

The other thing that’s striking in these numbers is how weak Romney is. In 2008 Huckabee got 32% here and his current 29% standing doesn’t represent much difference. But Romney pulled 29% here last time around and his 13% now means he’s lost more than half of his support. His albatross here, as we’re seeing in more and more of our GOP polling, is voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ They’re the largest segment of the Republican electorate in Missouri at 41%, and only 10% of them want Romney as their candidate next year.

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Mike Huckabee

President 2012 Poll Watch: Voters Tepid on Obama But Favor Him Over GOP Field

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According to the latest PPP Poll.

Barack Obama’s looking somewhat weak in our national polling. The good news for him is that his prospective Republican opponents look even weaker, and that’s allowing him to maintain healthy leads in head to head match ups against each of them looking toward next year.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

  • Obama – 47% Vs. 47%
  • Huckabee – 35% Vs. 42%
  • Romney – 32% Vs. 44%
  • Palin – 35% Vs. 57%
  • Gingrich – 26% Vs. 57%

Head to Head:

  • Obama – 48% Vs. Huckabee – 43%
  • Obama – 47% vs. Romney – 42%
  • Obama – 50% Vs. Gingrich – 39%
  • Obama – 53% Vs. Palin – 38%
  • Obama – 47% Vs. Pawlenty – 33%

With Romney and Huckabee (do NO harm candidates) the GOP could possibly do better than McCain-Palin in 2008 but would likely lose. Gingrich, Palin and Pawlenty are really non-starters.

So, the GOP has a choice – develop new candidates like Chris Christie and Mitch Daniels or concentrate on winning the Senate and maintaining their majority in the House.

The entire poll is here (PDF).

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Mike Huckabee

President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Sarah Palin’s Favorability Numbers Fall Among the GOP

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Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin gestures as she speaks during the LIA (Long Island Association) Annual Meeting & Luncheon at the Crest Hollow Country Club in Woodbury, New York February 17, 2011

According ti the latest ABC/Washington Post Poll (PDF).
Favorable impressions of Sarah Palin have dropped to a new low in her own party, with negative views of the former Alaska governor substantially exceeding those of other potential Republican presidential candidates, the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll finds.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

  • Mike Huckabee – 61% Vs. 18%
  • Mitt Romney – 60% Vs. 21%
  • Sarah Palin – 58% Vs. 37%
  • Newt Gingrich – 55% Vs. 26%

It is the unfavorability rating that is sinking Sarah Palin and her trajectory is downward.

Palin also is following a different trajectory. She peaked at a remarkable 88 percent favorable among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (known collectively as “leaned Republicans”) after stepping onto the national stage as John McCain’s vice-presidential running mate in September 2008. That’s declined since then to today’s level, 30 points lower.

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone March 10-13, 2011, among a random national sample of 1,005 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. The results among the sample’s 378 leaned Republicans have a 6-point error margin.

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Mike Huckabee

President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Ties Mitt Romney Without Huckabee and Palin in the Race

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When asked who they want to take on President Obama next year, Republican primary voters nationwide could not be less clear—the usual top four are in a statistical tie, each with less than 20% of the vote and just as many undecided. Mike Huckabee leads with 18%, followed by Mitt Romney’s 17%, Sarah Palin’s 16%, Newt Gingrich’s 14%, Ron Paul’s 9%, Tim Pawlenty’s 5%, Mitch Daniels’ 4%, and Haley Barbour’s 1%. 15% are undecided or favor someone unnamed. Last month, the candidate order was the same, and the proportions a similar 20-17-15-12-8-4-4.

But the longer these candidates hesitate to jump into the race, the more it appears a few of them may not run at all. Without Huckabee in the field, Romney edges Palin and
Gingrich, 20-19-18, with Paul at 12% and the others further back. In the absence of Palin, Huckabee tops Gingrich and Romney, 22-20-18. With neither Palin nor Huckabee making a bid, Gingrich and Romney tie at 24%, with Paul at 12%. Palin’s voters go more heavily to Gingrich than to Romney.

An interesting poll, for what it is worth, being that it is in the early GOP primary states where candidates will win or lose the nomination – not national polls.

The only question is who will NOT run first?

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