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President 2102 GOP Poll Watch: Rick Perry Leads But Mitt Romney Gaining in Favorability
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Mitt Romney is the only announced candidate whose Positive Intensity Score has improved significantly in recent weeks. His current 16 is up from 11 in late August and is his highest rating since mid-July, thus narrowing the gap with Perry. Rudy Giuliani, who has yet to decide if he will run, still edges out Romney with an 18.
Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann have seen significant declines in their Positive Intensity Scores since late August. Palin, who has also not decided whether to run, is down six points, from 16 to 10, and Bachmann is down three points, from 13 to 10. Both women are now at new lows for the year, with Bachmann’s score cut in half since early August.
Of course, this poll was taken before last night, but shows some movement since the Reagan Presidential Library debate the week prior where the Social Security – Ponzi Scheme Flap reared its ugly head. Interesting that Rudy Giuliani continues to poll better than Mitt Romney.
With just under five months remaining before Republican primary voters start casting ballots for the 2012 Republican nomination, Perry continues to generate more positive intensity from Republicans who know him than any other announced or potential candidate Gallup tracks. This is particularly notable because Perry has managed to maintain a strong Positive Intensity Score as his recognition among Republicans has expanded from 55% in July to 75% today. Romney, however, remains better known, and has recently seen his sagging Positive Intensity Score rebound, although he still lags significantly behind Perry on this measure.
The news is not as good for Bachmann, who has lost much of the passionate support she generated as recently as early August. Positive intensity for Palin among national Republicans has also slipped to a new low for the year.
Republicans’ views of Paul, Gingrich, Santorum, and Huntsman all seem to be in a holding pattern at levels seemingly keeping these men out of serious contention for the nomination. Huntsman does particularly poorly in Republicans’ eyes, and is the only candidate tracked whose Positive Intensity Score is a net negative, meaning that more Republicans who know him have a strongly unfavorable opinion than have a strongly favorable opinion.
Cain continues to be an anomaly, scoring high in positive intensity among those who know him, yet unable to push his recognition above the 50% level, and scoring low in trial-heat ballot measures.
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Video: Rudy Strikes Back – Calls Joe Biden Obama’s Puppet
View more videos at: http://nbcnewyork.com.
Rudy strikes back for Slow Joe’s 9/11 comment.
Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani insists he doesn’t want to be a vice-presidential pick on a GOP ticket in 2012, suggesting that Vice President Joe Biden looked like a puppet during President Obama’s jobs speech.
In an interview with NBC New York Friday, the one-time Republican presidential candidate said the no. 2 job is not for him.
“I think Biden must have a sore neck by now,” Giuliani said. “He was shaking his head so much it looked like he was on a string. It would be hard to sit there and shake your head all the time.”
America’s Mayor has never been one to mince his words.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Perry 27% Vs. Romney 14% Vs. Palin 10% Vs. Bachmann and Giuliani 9%
According to the latest CNN Poll.
The survey, released Monday, indicates that 27 percent of Republicans nationwide support Perry for their party’s nomination, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who’s making his second bid for the White House, at 14 percent. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin follows at ten percent, with Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani at nine percent, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who’s making his third bid for the presidency, at six percent. Every one else listed on the questionnaire registered in the low single digits.
Another national poll, like Gallup, last week that shows Texas Governor Rick Perry as the front-runner.
The momentum has been clear and it is all Perry.
Wonder what Sarah Palin is thinking now?
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President 2012: Rick Perry Will Have to Explain Why Rudy Giuliani Cannot Be His Attorney General
In 2008 Texas Governor Rick Perry endorses Rudy GiulianiI am pro-life but like and supported Rudy Giuliani in 2008. You don’t always agree with a POL on all issues.
Now, Jen Rubin points out a contradiction for the now front-running GOP Presidential candidate Texas Governor Rick Perry.
As other Republican contenders did before him, Texas Gov. Rick Perry signed the Susan B. Anthony List’s antiabortion pledge. That pledge includes this: “Select pro-life appointees for relevant Cabinet and Executive Branch positions, in particular the head of National Institutes of Health, the Department of Justice, and the Department of Health & Human Services.” This would exclude people such as Rudy Giuliani as attorney general. That might be fine for some Republicans, but Perry endorsed Giuliani for president in 2008. Good enough for the Oval Office but not the Justice Department? I asked the Perry campaign to explain but no answer was forthcoming.
What say you Governor?
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Perry 29% Vs. Romney 17% Paul 13% Bachmann 10% – Perry Now the Front-Runner
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Shortly after announcing his official candidacy, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has emerged as rank-and-file Republicans’ current favorite for their party’s 2012 presidential nomination. Twenty-nine percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide say they are most likely to support Perry, with Mitt Romney next, at 17%.
These results are based on an Aug. 17-21 Gallup poll, the first conducted after several important events in the Republican nomination campaign, including the second candidate debate, the Iowa Straw Poll, and Perry’s official entry into the race after months of speculation.
Romney and Perry essentially tied for the lead in late July, based on re-computed preferences that include the current field of announced candidates. Gallup’s official July report, based on the announced field at the time and thus excluding Perry, showed Romney with a 27% to 18% lead over Michele Bachmann. Romney enjoyed an even wider, 17-point lead in June over Herman Cain among the field of announced candidates (Gallup did not include Perry among the nominee choices before July).
Perry’s official announcement may have overshadowed the Aug. 13 Iowa Straw Poll, which Bachmann won narrowly over Ron Paul. Neither candidate appears to have gotten a big boost from the straw poll results; Paul’s support was up slightly from July and Bachmann’s down slightly.
What about the GOP demographics?
Perry is a strong contender among key Republican subgroups. Older Republicans and those living in the South show especially strong support for him, at or near 40%. Conservative Republicans strongly favor Perry over Romney, but liberal and moderate Republicans support the two about equally. Perry’s support is also above average among religious Republicans.
The chart:
What is most interesting to me is the weakness of Perry and Romney in the East. Is there room in the field for an Eastern based candidate like former New York Governor George Pataki or former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani? And, who would that hurt the most?
While the eight announced candidates continue to campaign in key early primary and caucus states, Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani are two prominent Republican politicians who have indicated they are still contemplating getting into the race. Palin and Giuliani each receive about 10% of the vote when included in the nomination preference question, with Perry still holding a significant lead over Romney, 25% to 14%, on this measure.
With them in the race, Perry jumps to an 11 point lead over Romney. Also, remember that Rudy was endorsed by Perry in 2008 and that they are friends.
The chart:
So, what does this all mean?
Texas Governor Rick Perry has vaulted into being the front-runner for the GOP Presidential nomination.
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President 2012: President George Pataki?
New York Governor George Pataki addresses the final night of the 2004 Republican National Convention at Madison Square Garden in New York, September 2, 2004
GOP Operative/pundit Mike Murphy discusses the possible path to the Presidency for former New York Governor George Pataki.While most of the media have gone ridiculously aflutter over Sarah Palin’s latest diesel-powered tourist outing slash fan dance, a far more interesting caper is quietly unfolding in New Hampshire. Former New York governor George Pataki is airing a new ad on a Granite State TV station, WMUR. The ad comes from a Pataki-sponsored group called No American Debt and is perfectly attuned to New Hampshire’s flinty primary electorate. So while others are playing cat and mouse with reporters, inspecting farms in Iowa with more hogs than people and pleading with legions of self-appointed Tea Party generalissimos, Pataki is running a very effective spot in New Hampshire.
I saw it and had to smile. My bet? Pataki is going to try to steal the New Hampshire primary: First, ignore all the silly inside games and get on television pronto with a good message. Move up quietly in the polls — with Mitt Romney sitting at a third of the vote, Palin unelectable and Tim Pawlenty drifting near the margin of error, Pataki could televise his way into second or third place in Granite State polls by midsummer. Then let the national media discover the Pataki surge and get bonkers about it. With that national attention, reboot the once massive Pataki money machine in New York State and start attracting more national money and support. Light the right match, and if it combusts correctly, stand back and watch the fire grow.
If Pataki generates real heat in New Hampshire, it will create an enormous headache for Romney. The last thing Romney needs is another can-do Northeastern governor in the race. It’s even worse for the ideologically murky Jon Huntsman, who is banking on a very similar formula of independents and mainline Republicans to sore his own New Hampshire upset. In a final Shakespearean twist, Pataki’s old home-state rival Rudy Giuliani will be watching all this carefully and thinking dark thoughts about the idea of President Pataki. He too is hinting at a possible run.
I think Rudy Giuliani is waiting for Sarah Palin and will run if she gets in. Maybe Pataki has done the same political calculus.
But, there is room for only one of them and Pataki is already running ads and has no debt like Rudy.
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President 2012: Former New York Governor George Pataki to Run for President?
Former New York Gov. George Pataki, center right, is greeted as he leaves St. Patrick’s Cathedral after the funeral of former Gov. Hugh Carey Thursday, Aug. 11, 2011 in New York. The Brooklyn-born Carey served two terms as New York governor from 1975 to 1982 after seven terms as a congressman representing his home borough
I guess the more the merrier.A spokesman has confirmed that former Governor George Pataki is strongly considering entering the crowded race for the Republican presidential nomination.
Sources say Pataki, who left office in 2007, could make an announcement as early as next week.
If he were to run, Pataki would face several major obstacles including launching an operation with little campaign cash and facing several opponents who have been meeting voters in Iowa and New Hampshire for months.
Pataki has been a vocal critic of President Barack Obama’s health care plan.
There is a path to the GOP Presidential nomination for Rudy Giuliani but I do not know if Pataki will do particularly well. But, if and when Sarah Palin enters the race, in a multi-candidate field for GOP delegates, Pataki who is very experienced, may be a player.
But, can he raise sufficient campaign cash to run in New Hampshire and Florida?
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President 2012 Video: Sarah Palin Organizer Confident She Will Run?
“Iowa Passion” Sarah Palin at the Iowa State Fair last weekNobody really knows what Sarah Palin will do but there is a lot of speculation and buzz today.
Sarah Palin’s Sept. 3 event has been relocated from Waukee to Indianola to better accommodate a larger crowd, organizers said.
Palin is the keynote speaker at the Tea Party of America’s “Restoring America” event, which is free and open to the public.
The event was originally scheduled at Hawkeye Antique Acres in Waukee. The event is now scheduled from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. at the National Balloon Classic field, east of Indianola.
There has been speculation that Palin, a former governor of Alaska and 2008 Republican vice presidential candidate, could use the event as an opportunity to announce whether she plans to run for president in 2012.
“I don’t know if she’s going to announce or not,” said Charlie Gruschow, co-founder of Tea Party of America. “But whether or not she announces, we’re going to have a huge event.”
I think she will run.
With Rick Perry in the race, a multi-candidate field with two other conservatives and one moderate (Mitt Romney) is a “perfect” storm for her.
But, I. also, think that Rudy Giuliani may then run or endorse Rick Perry and tie up the delegates in Florida, East and Far West.
The next few weeks will prove to be a very interesting time.
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President 2012 GOP California Poll Watch: Romney 22% Vs. Perry 15% Vs. Palin 10% Vs. Bachmann 8.5%
According to the latest Probolsky Research Poll.
An interesting poll with a small sample size, includes Sarah Palin and does NOT include Rudy Giuliani who is very popular in California.So, I say take it as – meh……
It is likely, but NOT highly likely that with a crowded GOP field, the California Presidential Primary Election which will be held in June 2012 will actually matter. Most candidates in the GOP field and certainly the party would like the nomination contest to be over long before then.
Why?
California is a very large state and the media markets extremely expensive. Plus, California is going for Obama no matter what and any cross-over campaigning for the general election will not matter.
Also, remember, the California Primary has historically been “winner take all” and having the election so late will allow the party to set the rules in this manner
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Perry 29% Vs. Romney 18% Vs. Bachmann 13%
According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.
Texas Governor Rick Perry, the new face in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, has jumped to a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann with the other announced candidates trailing even further behind.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters, taken Monday night, finds Perry with 29% support. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who ran unsuccessfully for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008, earns 18% of the vote, while Bachmann, the Minnesota congresswoman who won the high-profile Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on Saturday, picks up 13%.
Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who was a close second to Bachmann on Saturday, has the support of nine percent (9%) of Likely Primary Voters, followed by Georgia businessman Herman Cain at six percent (6%) and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with five percent (5%). Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, and ex-Utah Governor Jon Huntsman each get one percent (1%) support, while Michigan Congressman Thaddeus McCotter comes in statistically at zero.
Sixteen percent (16%) of primary voters remain undecided.
An Uh Oh moment for the presumed front-runner Mitt Romney.
Is there any wonder why Karl Rove said last night that he exepcted others to enter the race? In fact, rumors have been plentiful today that Representative Paul Ryan is now considering the race.
Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan is strongly considering a run for president. Ryan, who has been quietly meeting with political strategists to discuss a bid over the past three months, is on vacation in Colorado discussing a prospective run with his family. Ryan’s concerns about the effects of a presidential campaign – and perhaps a presidency – on his family have been his primary focus as he thinks through his political future.
Then, there continues to be the real wild card candidate, Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani who likely would run, if Palin does.
Stay tuned…….