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President 2012: Why Rudy Giuliani Continues to Consider a Presidential Race
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been quietly but steadily traveling to New Hampshire discussing his long shot Presidential ambitions. But, is this a Quixotic attempt to stay relevant or is there something more?Looking at the GOP nomination calendar, it may indeed be something more.
Now, Texas Governor Rick Perry and Rudy are friends. Perry endorsed Rudy’s Presidential race in 2008 and I do not know how this calculus works. Nor, do I know whether Sarah Palin will actually enter the Presidential arena.
But, let us assume that Sarah Palin runs and Rudy enters the race as a moderate alternative to Sarah and Michele Bachmann.
Can Rudy Giuliani win the nomination? Or, at least have a shot?
The short answer is: Rudy Giuliani can either win or determine who the 2012 Presidential nominee will be.
Let’s look at the GOP primary nomination calendar.
Here are the early states.There are two things you really need to pay attention to here. First, note the states with asterisks. The RNC has decided to strip half of the delegates from any state that holds a primary or caucus before March 1, other than Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada. Some states are considering pushing their primaries back, although these also tend to be the more moderate states, like Wisconsin and New Jersey. The more conservative states seem to be hanging tough, for now. In other words, you could end up with some of the more conservative states in the GOP electorate losing clout at the convention.
Please note the states of New Hampshire, Florida and New Jersey in the early state category where Rudy Giuliani will definitely win some delegates (remember these races are proportional contests – not winner take all).
I can see a scenario where the more conservative candidates of Perry, Bachmann, and Palin split the conservative wing of the party and Giuliani beats or remains a close second to Mitt Romney after the early contests.
Next, come the next tier of elections in March:
Here there are sufficient large and moderate GOP states to provide delegates to a Giuliani candidacy – Illinois, Michigan, Massachusetts and Vermont. Remember again, that the Republican National Committee has ruled that states who conduct primaries prior to April 1 must allocate their delegates proportionately.
Again, a Giuliani candidacy can remain credible with maybe not the plurality of delegates, but a sufficient amount leading into the post-April primaries:
Note that these post-April primary contests are considerably more moderate on political orientation and include New York and California. These are both states that Giuliani could win all of the delegates since they might become winner take all contests. Rudy would also do well in the other Eastern and Far West states, including Oregon, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Washington.
Giuliani could either gather a plurality of delegates by the end of the primary season and unite with a conservative candidate (namely Rick Perry, his friend) as his Vice President selection and go into the Florida GOP Convention with a majority of delegates.
Or, Rudy could broker his delegates to the “will” of the convention and accept the Vice Presidency.
Sean Trende over at Real Clear Politics begins his piece with the meme of how well Romney will do against Rick Perry.I think Sean has it a little wrong.
He has just made the case for a Rudy Giuliani candidacy.
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President 2012: Karl Rove Expects Sarah Palin, Chris Christie and/or Paul Ryan to Enter Presidential Race?
GOP Political operative Karl Rove on Fox News Channel last nightTexas Governor is the candidate of the hour, but Karl Rove makes the case that more may enter the Presidential arena.
ROVE: We’ve got a good field. I don’t think that’s the end, though, of the field. I think we’re likely to see several other candidates think seriously about getting in, and frankly, they have time to do so.
November 22 is the first deadline to file papers to get on a ballot — that’s the last day somebody could get in without starting to lose their place in some of the early primaries or caucuses.
I suspect we’re likely to see an early September, late August — people taking it seriously.
SEAN HANNITY: All right, who are these people you suspect might get in?
ROVE: I think Palin.
HANNITY: You do think Palin?
ROVE: Well, I think she’s going to look seriously at it. I don’t know if any of these are going to actually get in, but I think that the nature of the field, and the fact that we’ve now got three candidates when we could have had four, five, or six major candidates is going to lead people to say “Well, I could be in that contest.”
Palin has got a pretty active schedule in early September. I think Chris Christie and Paul Ryan are going to look at it again, and I wouldn’t be surprised if all three of them gave serious consideration to it….
HANNITY: I’ve talked to Governor Christie a lot and he says “No way”.
I was more convinced Gov. Palin after I saw her and interviewed her Friday night at the Iowa state fair that she might get in now.
Paul Ryan, I don’t think has given any indication. What makes you think those two will get in — meaning Ryan and Christie.
ROVE: Well, two things. There was an event in New York — [co-founder of Home Depot] Ken Langone pulled together some big moneyraisers and met with Christie and said “you need to think seriously about this.”
And it’s not just the meeting. What happened afterwards — from what I picked up around the country — I talked to a number of people who had picked up the phone and called Christie to tell him they thought that he ought to run. These are Republican activists, Republican donors, movers and shakers, activists around the country.
And the same on Paul Ryan, and I’m starting to pick up some sort of vibrations that these kinds of conversations are causing Christie and Ryan to tell the people who are calling them “Well, you know what, I owe it to you. I think I will take a look at it.”
Whether or not that happens or not, I don’t know, but I’m just picking that up that people have some sense, some belief that these two guys are going to take a look at it.
I agree that Sarah Palin is a wild card in the race fro 2012 and should Sarah enter the race, the conservative field would be scattered all over the map. I, also, predict that should Palin run, so would Rudy Giuliani which would really divide the GOP Presidential delegate distribution.
I can foresee a scenario where the GOP nomination comes down to the California GOP primary election in June (likely, a winner take all election) or a “brokered” convention – much like Ford Vs. Reagan in 1976.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Rick Perry is Leading in the South While Mitt Romney Leads in the West
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the favorite among southern Republicans when they are asked to say who they are most likely to support for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination, with a 22% to 13% advantage over Sarah Palin in that region. Mitt Romney has a similar edge, 24% to 12%, over Michele Bachmann in the West. Romney and Rudy Giuliani essentially tie for first in the East, with Romney holding a slight advantage among midwestern Republicans.
These results are based on a July 20-24 Gallup poll that shows Romney (17%) and Perry (15%) in a statistical tie as the preferred nominee among Republicans nationwide. However, Romney has a more significant lead among the more limited set of announced GOP candidates, which excludes Perry, Palin, and Giuliani.
This is a good poll for Rick Perry who has NOT even anounced an official candidacy. When he does in late August he will zoom past Michele Bachmann into second place.
With regards to Sarah Palin, she remains a “wild card” in this race. I have written for weeks now that should she run, then Rudy Giuliani would run. Rudy figures his strength in the East and somewhat in California might propel him to a place at the table at a “brokered” GOP Convention.
But, remember Rick Perry and Rudy are friends. Perry endorsed Rudy in 2008 and it would not be surprising that should Palin not decide to run, that Rudy would endorse Perry which would swing support to him in the East and West.
So, we wait for a few weeks and see what Sarah Palin announces at a Tea Party rally in Iowa on September 3rd.
Given Romney’s positioning among southern Republicans, a candidate like Perry could pose the most significant threat to him. One key would be whether Perry, as he became better known (currently 56% of Republicans are familiar with him), would expand his appeal in other regions, or if his core support would remain limited to the South. If the latter, Romney may still be able to hold onto his status as the front-runner even if his support in the South drops. If the former, Perry could emerge as the new GOP front-runner should he become an official candidate.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 17% Vs. Perry 15% Vs. Palin 12% Vs. Giuliani 11% Vs. Bachmann 11%
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Mitt Romney is the leader for the GOP nomination among the current field of official candidates, supported by 27% of Republicans, compared with 18% for Michele Bachmann. However, Rick Perry would essentially tie Romney, with Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani close behind, in a scenario in which all three of these undecided candidates entered the race.
The results are based on a July 20-24 Gallup poll. Eight of the 11 Republicans included in the poll have announced their official candidacies. Giuliani, Palin, and Perry are not official candidates but are still actively considering becoming candidates even though the first nominating contests are less than seven months away. Any of the three would start from a relatively strong national position, with all registering at least double-digit support in the poll.
Nothing really has changed on this national poll. We continue to have an unsettled GOP field with Sarah Palin playing the “Wild Card.”
Texas Governor looks like the most likely unannounced candidate actually throwing his hat in the ring. Sarah and Rudy – well, not so much.
But, who knows?
I continue to maintain that if Sarah Palin runs, then so will Rudy Giuliani. If she doesn’t, then Rudy supports Rick Perry and Bachmann fades as the anti-Romney candidate.
Romney is the nominal front-runner for the Republican nomination, though his status is weaker now than a month ago and could be weakened further by the entry of a candidate like Perry, Palin, or Giuliani. Still, none of those potential candidates’ support exceeds Romney’s at the moment.
The time for any other candidates to enter the race is running short, though there is a precedent for candidates jumping in after Labor Day, as in 2003 (Democrat Wesley Clark) and 2007 (Republican Fred Thompson), though neither candidate fared well in the early primaries and caucuses.
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Rudy Giuliani and Rick Perry Would Enter Race as Credible Candidates
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani would enter as credible players in the 2012 GOP presidential race, should they decide to run. Perry is recognized by 55% of Republicans and has a Positive Intensity Score of 21, while Giuliani is recognized by 86% and has a Positive Intensity Score of 20. Both Positive Intensity Scores are among the highest of any candidate or potential candidate Gallup measures.
Neither Perry nor Giuliani has made an official announcement about running for president, although both have indicated that they are seriously considering it. Perry, governor of Texas since 2000, told an Iowa newspaper that he felt “called” to run. Giuliani, who was the front-runner for the GOP nomination through much of 2007 before losing out to John McCain, has traveled frequently to New Hampshire in recent weeks.
Despite intense media speculation about his presidential plans, far fewer Republicans recognize Perry (55%) than recognize Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, and Ron Paul. Perry, however, is already known by as many Republicans nationally as announced candidate Tim Pawlenty, and has higher name recognition than several other candidates who have been hard at work campaigning in recent weeks, including Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, and Jon Huntsman.
I doubt Rudy will enter the race unless Sarah Palin does and who knows about Sarah at this point. Rudy would rely on a split in the conservative vote to allow him the power to either win late primary contests in the East and Far West (where he is most popular) or broker the GOP convention.
But, remember that Texas Governor Rick Perry endorsed Rudy in 2008 and they continue to be good friends. It is likely that Rudy would defer a run for his friend, in order to thwart Mitt Romney, who Giuliani does not care so much about.
Of course, Rudy would be an immediate front-runner for the Vice Presidential spot with Perry. A Perry-Giuliani ticket would be very formidable against Obama-Biden.
In their inaugural appearance in Gallup’s weekly GOP candidate tracking, Perry and Giuliani have strongly positive images among Republicans nationwide, with Positive Intensity Scores in the top tier of all candidates and potential candidates Gallup measures. Both men generate slightly more intensely positive responses than Romney, and considerably more positive reactions than several other announced candidates who have been campaigning actively, including Pawlenty and Huntsman.
Perry does have relatively low name recognition among Republicans nationwide, roughly on par with where Bachmann was at the beginning of this year. Bachmann’s name recognition has increased significantly since then, however, in contrast to the situations of Pawlenty, Huntsman, Santorum, and Cain, who have not been able to move the needle on name recognition despite vigorous campaigning. It remains to be seen how quickly Perry’s name recognition will increase if he officially jumps into the race.
Giuliani does not have a name ID problem; he is as well-known as any candidate or potential candidate tested except for Palin. Giuliani also scores well on Gallup’s Positive Intensity measure, meaning that both he and Perry would be formidable factors in the race for the GOP nomination should they make the decision to run.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Sarah Palin Still a Formidable Presence Among Republicans
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Sarah Palin — who has not yet announced whether she will run for president — remains a formidable presence among Republicans nationwide. She is almost universally recognized, and her current Positive Intensity Score ties her with Mitt Romney, trailing only Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann.
A Newsweek cover story on the former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate quoted Palin as saying, “I believe that I can win a national election,” and that she is still thinking about running.
Palin’s high 95% name recognition — the highest of any candidate or potential candidate Gallup is tracking — is one of her major political attributes. Her Positive Intensity Score, currently 15, has been in the 13 to 19 range throughout the year so far. This puts her behind Cain and Bachmann, but in roughly the same range as Romney. At the same time, Palin generates stronger emotions — both positive and negative — than Romney does. His Positive Intensity Score is based on the difference between the 18% of those who recognize him who have a strongly favorable opinion and the 3% who have a strongly unfavorable opinion. A significantly higher 25% of Republicans who recognize Palin have a strongly favorable opinion of her and a higher 9% have a strongly unfavorable opinion (Palin’s net Positive Intensity Score is 15 because of rounding when precise numbers are calculated).
Palin’s 25% strongly favorable rating is the highest of any candidate tested in the latest two-week average, from June 27-July 10, one percentage point ahead of Cain’s 24% and five points ahead of Bachmann’s 20%.
But, Sarah will have to do more than give interviews to Newsweek. She will have to run and run against Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney. At least two candidates are waiting for Sarah to fish or cut bait in this race: Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani.
I continue to doubt she will run and if she does, Palin will hope that Perry and Giuliani jump in as well.
Sarah will do well in a multi-way race in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.
The GOP field to some degree is in a holding pattern, with candidates such as Palin, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani sitting on the sidelines while pondering their decisions on whether to officially get into the race. If any or all of these politicians do decide to run, the nature of Republicans’ sentiments about the candidates and whom they favor for their party’s nomination may change. At the moment, Cain and Bachmann generate the highest levels of enthusiasm among rank-and-file Republicans who recognize them, with Palin and Romney trailing them. Of the remaining announced candidates, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul do best, while Jon Huntsman, Gingrich, and Gary Johnson are lagging behind in terms of Positive Intensity.
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President 2012: Texas Governor Rick Perry Buying Space for the Ames Iowa Straw Poll
Texas Gov. Rick Perry speaks at the Lincoln Dinner, an annual fundraising event for the New York GOP, Tuesday, June 14, 2011 in New York. Perry stirred speculation Tuesday that he would seek the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, championing his state’s economy before a packed GOP gathering in New York and telling a television interviewer he would engage in a “thought process” before deciding whether to join the field
Well, it is the Draft Perry folks since the Texas Governor has not officially made up his mind on whether to enter the Presidential race.An advocacy group that wants Texas Republican Rick Perry to run for president is seeking a presence at the Iowa straw poll this summer.
Americans for Rick Perry is taking steps to purchase a vendor spot, organizer Bob Schuman told The Des Moines Register today.
“We intend to have some kind of impact at the straw poll,” Schuman said. “We just don’t know what that is yet, but we’re working on it.”
The straw poll is a test of campaign strength and candidate popularity. It’s also a fundraiser for the Republican Party of Iowa.
Campaigns had one opportunity, on June 23, to buy a physical space on the straw poll campus, which guaranteed a right to address the audience from the main stage and locked in a line on the ballot.
Party rules don’t allow campaigns to buy spaces after that date.
Vendors and advocacy groups still can, but the purchase doesn’t mean a candidate will be allowed to speak or get a slot on the ballot.
Perry’s name has circulated as someone Republicans would like to see jump into the race.
Americans for Rick Perry, a 527 independent expenditure group that’s unaffiliated with Perry, is raising money on Perry’s behalf while he contemplates a presidential bid.
Schuman flew to Iowa Wednesday and has met with Jenifer Bowen of Iowa Right to Life, Bob Vander Plaats of the Family Leader, Steve Scheffler of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition and others, he said.
The Texas governor is keeping his options open and the Team Sarah Palin is keeping a close eye on Perry.
If Perry runs, then there will be a happy dance in Wasilla because Perry undoubtedly will draw from the same base as Michele Bachmann. Sarah could then enter the fray and capture a plurality in Iowa, lose in New Hampshire and then test Romney in South Carolina and Florida.
Just as an aside, should Sarah Palin run, I think Rudy Giuliani enters the race maybe almost guaranteeing a long, protracted primary season and/or a “brokered” GOP convention.
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Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Poll Watch: Michele Bachmann Now in Second Place to Mitt Romney
According to the latest Suffolk University Poll.
While former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains a front-runner in New Hampshire, Michele Bachmann climbed 8 points since May, to 11 percent, according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WHDH TV) poll of likely voters in New Hampshire’s GOP presidential primary.
Bachmann’s gain was more than that of any other candidate. Romney, with 36 percent support, gained 1 point since Suffolk University’s last Granite State poll was released nearly two months ago.
GOP Primary election:
- Mitt Romney – 36%
- Michele Bachmann – 11%
- Ron Paul – 8%
- Rudy Giuliani – 5%
- Sarah Paln – 4%
- Jon Huntsman – 4%
- Tim Pawlenty – 2%
- Newt Gingrich – 2%
Michele Bachmann distinguished herself in he Manchester, New Hampshire debate a few weeks ago and it is paying her dividends in the polls.
Among those who watched the Republican Presidential debate in Manchester earlier this month, 33 percent said Romney won the debate, while 31 percent gave the win to Bachmann.
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California, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Rick Perry, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin
President 2012 California GOP Poll Watch: Romney 25% Giuliani 17% Palin 10% Paul 7%
According to the latest Field Poll.
California Republicans favor presidential candidate Mitt Romney by a comfortable margin over other Republicans, a Field Poll released today shows.
When stacked up against 11 other announced or potential Republican candidates, Romney is the first choice of an eye-catching 25 percent of GOP voters in the state. If former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is excluded, Romney’s share jumps to 30 percent.
“He’s got a commanding lead in the early going,” pollster Mark DiCamillo said. “Romney has the formula of both being well-known and being positively perceived.”
Though the former Massachusetts governor announced his formal candidacy only June 2, Romney has long been beating the bushes for support. He spent $107 million seeking the 2008 Republican nomination, including $8.4 million that he raised from California donors.
The Los Angeles region was the third-leading source of campaign donations for Romney’s 2008 campaign, behind the Boston and Salt Lake City areas, figures compiled by the Center for
Responsive Politics show.
“He’s just a well-known figure,” DiCamillo noted. “He has tremendous name (identification), and that converts to preferences.”
Romney is viewed favorably by 56 percent of California Republicans and unfavorably by only 25 percent.
Perhaps this polling is why Mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to flirt with getting into the race.
But, if Rudy does not, Mitt Romney looks like a winner in California although Michele Bachmann who is a late entrant and is not known near as much – 42% have no impression of her candidacy may play here; as may Texas Governor Rick Perry, if he decides to run.
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President 2012: Rudy Giuliani to Meet with Chris Christie and Rick Perry Today
Rudy Giuliani when he endorsed soon to be elected New Jersey Governor Chris Christie in 2009
Well, Rudy endorsed Chris Christie when he ran for New Jersey Governor and Texas Governor Rick Perry endorsed Rudy in 2008 when Giuliani ran for President. So, hence the meetings since Rudy continues to show interest in a 2012 Presidential race.Rudy Giuliani and Chris Christie, two former federal prosecutors and two similar political models, are set to have lunch Wednesday, sources confirmed.
The meeting will be on the heels of a Giuliani meeting with Rick Perry. Both men are considering a presidential run.
Christie has said repeatedly that he isn’t.
But the Giuliani and Christie meeting comes at a time when the former mayor has said he is seriously looking at his political future, and as some national Republicans are still hoping to lure the New Jersey governor into the race.
I would love to be a fly on the wall during these meetings.
But, my guess is Rudy is lining up support should Sarah Palin decide to throw her hat in the ring and divide the conservative vote in the GOP primaries. Otherwise, Rudy will be on board with either Perry or Christie should one of them decide to run and Rudy doesn’t.
Rudy would go on the stump in Florida for Rick Perry and would definitely hurt Mitt Romney there. And, could deliver a goodly number of East Coast and California GOP delegates for the Texas Governor.
Giuliani will make a terrific Attorney General or Vice President.