• Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012: Daniels is Out – So Who is Left?

    Jennifer Rubin who never liked Mitch Daniels calls him names, but the GOP base has to ponder – who is left?

    Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels’s pre-campaign effort was odd from the get-go. He antagonized key blocs of the Republican Party, evidenced a tin ear and seemed to take no counsel from anyone. Now he’s out, citing family concerns. Donald Trump never intended to run, and his exit was no surprise. But to Daniels’s supporters this “tease” may leave a bad taste in their mouths (as Daniels conceded in his letter to supporters). In any event, his departure confirms that he is, bluntly speaking, an odd duck.


    Meanwhile, former Utah governor and ambassador to China Jon Huntsman — who served in the Obama administration, previously backed cap-and-trade, is viewed warily by social conservatives and has no perceptible grass-roots support — has made his candidacy even less credible…

    Maybe it will be the Bob Dole, boring boys, campaign after all – with Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty.

    Wow, with that duo Obama will really cruise to a victory. 

    But, on the bright side, the GOP donors will redirect their money to U.S. Senate races where they might actually be able to elect someone.

    The only candidates that can enter this race now and make it half-way competitive will be New Jersey Governor Chris Christie or former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. If not, the race for 2012 will be a snorer.

    But, wait…..I bet Sarah Palin runs, if no other GOP Establishment type ponies up to the bar.

    So, maybe the race wont be boring – just hopeless lost.

  • Barack Obama,  Eliot Abrams,  Israel,  John McCain,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012: Obama’s Speech on Middle East and North Africa – The Reaction

    U.S. President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talk with invited guests after his speech about the United States policy on the Middle East and North Africa at the State Department in Washington, May 19, 2011. Obama on Thursday invoked the killing of Osama bin Laden as a chance to recast relations with the Arab world and said the top U.S. priority was to promote democratic change across the region. Obama, in his much-anticipated “Arab spring” speech, also ratcheted up pressure on Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, saying for the first time that he must stop a crackdown on protests and lead a democratic transition “or get out of the way”

    The reaction to President Obama’s speech (transcript) yesterday (video) was swift and certain from his potential 2012 GOP opponents. Here is a sampling.

    • Mitt Romney – “President Obama has thrown Israel under the bus. He has disrespected Israel and undermined its ability to negotiate peace.”
    • Tim Pawlenty – “To send a signal to the Palestinians that America will increase its demands on our ally Israel, on the heels of the Palestinian Authority’s agreement with the Hamas terrorist organization, is a disaster waiting to happen. At this time of upheaval in the Middle East, it’s never been more important for America to stand strong for Israel and for a united Jerusalem.”
    • Mitch Daniels – “What is going on in the Arab world these days has little or nothing to do with Israel or Palestine, it has to do with tyrannical regimes which have really stifled prospects for their people who are now restless for a better life… I don’t think right now it pays very much of a dividend to try to cut the Gordian Knot of Israel and Palestine.”
    • John McCain – This is setting a limitation on the boundaries of the state of Israel without regard to the Israelis having a country that they can defend militarily..” http://bit.ly/m4lMyx
    • Eliot Abrams – “On the whole, the president’s comments about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will lead nowhere. It is striking that he suggested no action: no meeting, no envoy, no Quartet session, no invitations to Washington.” http://on.cfr.org/mxSqsG

    My take on this is that most Americans don’t give a flying flip about this issue. They object to their tax money being used to adjudicate a dispute that has been going on for thousands of years.

    So, this will not hurt Obama (execpt with his left-wing Jewish donors) and certainly not help the GOP candidates (since Jewish voters go about 75% for the Dems and are concentrted in New York and California – states which won’t be in play in the Electoral College.)

  • Donald Trump,  Herman Cain,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Ron Paul,  Rudy Giuliani,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 20% Vs. Palin 12% Vs. Gingrich 9% Vs. Giuliani 7%

    According to the latest Suffolk University Poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Barack Obama – 51% Vs. 42%
    • Mitt Romney –  39% Vs. 32%
    • Mitch Daniels – 10% Vs. 14% Never heard of = 46%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 18% Vs. 16% Never heard of = 38%
    • Newt Gingrich – 29% Vs. 50%
    • Michele Bachmann – 20% vs. 28% Never heard of = 30%
    • Ron Paul – 24% Vs. 34%
    • Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 58%

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 47% Vs. 45%

    Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be re-elected or is it time to give someone else a chance?

    • Deserve Re-election – 43% 
    • Someone else – 48%

    GOP Primary Head to Head:

    • Romney – 20%
    • Palin – 12%
    • Gingrich – 9%
    • Giuliani – 7%
    • Paul – 5%
    • Daniels – 4%
    • Cain – 4%
    • Bachmann – 4%
    • Pawlenty – 3%

    General Election:

    • Obama – 46% vs. Romney – 43%
    • Obama – 47% Vs. Pawlenty – 31%
    • Obama – 50% Vs. Bachmann – 30%
    • Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 38%
    • Obama – 48% Vs. Daniels – 30%

    Is the economy improving or getting worse?

    • Improving – 41%
    • Getting Worse – 46%

    This is again a national poll and it is not certain that Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels or Rudy Giuliani will be candidates. And, the poll was taken before Huckabee and Trump dropped out.

    But, at the present time, it looks like you would have to consider Mitt Romney as the front runner.

    The nationwide survey of 1,070 United States likely voters was conducted May 10-17, 2011, using live telephone interviews. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence.

  • Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012: GOP Elite Favor Mitch Daniels?

    President Barack Obama is greeted by Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels as he steps off Air Force One in Indianapolis, Ind., Friday, May 6, 2011

    Or, see Mitch Daniels as the GOP 2012 Savior?

    Top Republicans are increasingly convinced that President Barack Obama will be easily reelected if stronger GOP contenders do not emerge, and some are virtually begging Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels to add some excitement to the slow-starting nomination race.

    It’s a sign of the GOP’s straits that the party is depending on the bland, wonkish Daniels for an adrenaline boost.

    But interviews this week with longtime party activists and strategists made clear that many in the Republican establishment are unnerved by a field led by Mitt Romney, who could have trouble confronting Obama on health reform; Tim Pawlenty, who has yet to ignite excitement; Jon Huntsman, who may be too moderate to get the nomination; and Newt Gingrich, weighed down by personal baggage and a sense that he is a polarizing figure from the 1990s.

    Despairing Republican lobbyists say their colleagues don’t ask, “Who do you like?” but instead, “Who do we back?”

    “It’s not that they’re up in arms,” said a central player in the GOP money machine. “It’s just that they’re depressed.”

    And a huge swath of operatives, donors and strategists remain uncommitted, in the hope that the field is not yet set.

    The fact is Mitch Daniels is being helped by Jeb Bush and the Karl Rove/Bush family GOP machine. Daniels is the anti-Romney and the GOP field is better with him in the race. He will announce within a few weeks.

    Daniels is an accomplished two-term GOP Governor in a midwestern state that President Barack Obama won in 2008. His political narrative will play well in the key battleground states where the GOP will confront Obama’s re-election juggernaut.

    The field is starting to shape up: Romney, Pawlenty, Daniels – all capable, non-damaged, accomplished Governors. If one of these fails, then the bench includes Chris Christie and/or Paul Ryan.

    Prospects are looking better to beat Barack Obama next year.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Virginia Poll Watch: Obama 51% vs. Romney 44%, Obama 53% Vs. Huckabee 44%

    According to the latest Washington Post poll.

    Presidential Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • Barack Obama – 57% Vs. 40% (49% vs. 46%)

    General Election Head to Head:

    • Obama – 51% vs. Romney – 44% (48% Vs. 46%)
    • Obama – 53% Vs. Huckabee – 44% (50% Vs. 46%)
    • Obama – 55% Vs. Pawlenty – 35% (51% Vs. 38%)
    • Obama – 61% Vs. Trump – 30% (54% Vs. 35%)
    • Obama – 61% Vs. Palin – 30% (55% Vs. 36%)

    Virginia is a key battleground state that the Republican nominee will need to deny President Barack Obama a second term. Undoubtedly, President Obama has received a bounce from the Osama bin Ladin operation and this is somewhat reflected in this poll.

    However, the GOP will either have to nominate someone else or hope that Romney and/or Huckabee will be able to persuade Virginia voters.

    Survey of 1,180 adults in Virginia was conducted April 28 – May 4, 2011; including 677 interviews before the killing of Osama bin Laden, with 503 afterward. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Results from interviews conducted before the announcement of bin Laden’s death are in parentheses.

  • Day By Day,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  President 2012,  Tim Pawlenty

    Day By Day May 6, 2011 – Balls

    Day By Day by Chris Muir

    The South Carolina GOP Presidential debate last night was disappointing. None of the REAL candidates bothered to show up for this Fox News sponsored event.

    I mean REALLY who can take Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson or Ron Paul seriously?

    The GOP Presidential race is getting a late start and it is probably for the best. The REAL candidates will be savaged by an Obama supporitng MSM and why give them a head start prior to the summer.

    So, who do I think will run?

    Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty.

    Who will be the nominee?

    Mike Huckabee or Mitch Daniels.

    But, we will see, since it it not clear at this time whether Huckabee or Daniels will even run.


    The Day by Day Archive

  • Donald Trump,  Jon Huntsman,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee Lead – Palin and Trump = Not So Much

    According to the latest Quinnipiac National Poll.

    By healthy margins, American voters say they would consider or be enthusiastic about backing former governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee for president, but 58 percent would never support Sarah Palin or Donald Trump, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

    No surprise here.

    Sarah Palin and Donald Trump will NOT be candidates, in any case.

    The race will either be Huckabee Vs. Romney Vs. Daniels or Huckabee Vs. Romney Vs. Pawlenty. And, Jon Huntsman will be in the mix somewhere.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: 26 Per Cent Want Someone Else

    According to the latest University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll.

    • Mike Huckabee – 16%
    • Mitt Romney – 15%
    • Sarah Palin – 10%
    • Newt Gingrich – 4%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 5%
    • Someone Else – 26%
    • Don’t Know – 11%

    Another poll indicative of the fact that the GOP Presidential race is wide open. The filed will solidify in a couple of weeks and definitely by mid-June.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Nevada GOP Poll Watch: Romney 24% Trump 16% Gingrich 11% Huckabee 10%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mitt Romney – 64% Vs. 23%
    • Mike Huckabee – 61% Vs. 26%
    • Newt Gingrich – 61% Vs. 21%
    • Sarah Palin – 65% Vs. 26%
    • Donald Trump – 47% Vs. 40%

    But, Mitt Romney’s lead is declining as Donald Trump has entered the field.

    Mitt Romney continues to be the early favorite to win the Republican race in Nevada next year, as he did in 2008. But his support in the state is on the decline, suggesting he may not be able to take a repeat victory for granted.

    This is the fourth look we’ve taken at the GOP contest in Nevada and Romney’s support there has been on a steady decline. Last July he was at 34% in the state and he maintained that 34% standing in an October poll of Republican voters. But in January he dropped to 31% and now he’s at this 24% level. It’s no coincidence that Romney’s loss of support coincides with Pawlenty vaulting from 1% in January to now 8% in the Nevada polling. The two appeal to a similar type of voter and generally any time we’ve seen Pawlenty gain we’ve seen a corresponding Romney fall.

    Mitt Romney has to be considered the favorite in the Nevada caucuses. He is Mormon and there is a large population of LDS voters who WILL march to the caucuses to vote for one of their own. Donald Trump will fade as the weeks meander towards summer.

    The GOP Caucus preference:

    • Romney – 24%
    • Trump – 16%
    • Gingrich – 11%
    • Huckabee 10%
    • Palin – 8%
    • Pawlenty – 8%
    • Bachmann – 7%
    • Paul – 5%

    Yeah, I would be shocked if Romney did not win Nevada. 

    So, let’s see how it breaks out:

    • Iowa = Huckabee (if he runs)
    • New Hampshire = Romney (but by how much?)
    • Nevada = Romney
    • South Carolina = Huckabee (if he runs)
    • Florida (where the real race starts)
    • Super Tuesday – ?

    The entire poll is here.