-
Chris Christie, Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 Poll Watch: 65% will Not Vote for Sarah Palin, 64% Will Not Vote for Donald Trump
According to the latest Gallup Poll.More than 6 in 10 registered voters nationwide say they would definitely not vote for Donald Trump or Sarah Palin for president in 2012, significantly more than say the same about possible Republican candidates Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, or about President Barack Obama.
This is not really surprising but I doubt it means much. I doubt Sarah Palin or Donald Trump will be candidates for the GOP nomination for President.
What is most interesting to me is that 46% of Americans polled say they will NOT vote for President Obama which is about the same for Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney.
While the Donald Trump show has been amuzing the past few weeks, it has served as an outlet for Americans who have decided that they do not wish to re-elect President Obama. There are sufficient Republican canddates in Huckabee and Romney who can make a credible run against the President. I, also believe, there will be other candidates who will emerge within the next 30-60 days who have accomplished records that can also be viewed as viable candidates, including Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie and Paul Ryan.
Trump’s attention-grabbing, high-visibility statements and his ability to generate large amounts of news coverage cut two ways. On the one hand, Trump has undeniably dominated news coverage of the Republican race in the last several weeks, vaulting him into the middle of political and election news discussion and coverage. On the other hand, Trump’s ability to generate publicity apparently has its costs, as his image has turned more negative and as more than 6 in 10 voters across the country already say they would definitely not vote for him.
Trump also faces apparent obstacles in his efforts to gain the Republican nomination, should he decide to run. Almost half of Republican registered voters at this point say they would definitely not vote for him, the highest of any of the four possible GOP candidates measured in this survey.
-
Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee 43% Vs. Barack Obama 43%
According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.
Job Approval Vs. Disapproval
President Barack Obama – 46% Vs. 54%Head to Head:
- Huckabee – 43% Vs. Obama – 43%
- Obama – 45% Vs. Romney – 40%
- Obama – 48% Vs. Palin – 38%
- Obama – 49% Vs. Gingrich – 37%
- Obama – 45% Vs. Pawlenty – 35%
- Obama – 45% Vs. Daniels 32%
For a non-candidate candidate, Mike Huckabee continues to poll well against President Obama. The ONLY announced candidate Tim Pawlenty is behind by 10 points and Mitt Romney who has announced a Presidential Exploratory Committee is behind by 5.
But, it is still very early although President Obama looks, at least now, vulnerable.
-
President 2012: Tim Pawlenty Announces His Race for the Presidency
Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty said today that he is in the race to become the Republican Nominee for President in 2012.Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty said on Tuesday he was entering the race to be the Republican candidate for the White House in 2012 against Democratic President Barack Obama.
“I’m running for President,” Pawlenty said in an excerpt of a CNN interview taped for broadcast on Tuesday evening. “I’m not putting my hat in the ring rhetorically or ultimately for vice president. I’m focused on running for president.”
I wish Governor Pawlenty the best of luck but his polling numbers at this time do not look especially favorable as compared to the rest of the potential GOP field. Frankly, not many people know him and he is not the most dynamic speaker.
But, the race is early and there is always the Vice Presidency.
-
Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Trump 19% Huckabee 19% Palin 12% Romney 11% Gingrich 11%
According to the latest CNN/Opinion Research Poll.
The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted by telephone, with 824 people questioned. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
- Donald Trump – 19%
- Mike Huckabee – 19%
- Sarah Palin – 12%
- Mitt Romney – 11%
- Newt Gingrich – 11%
- Ron Paul – 7%
- Michele Bachmann – 5%
So, where are Donald Trump’s votes coming from – meaning at whose expense?
Trump jumped from 10 percent in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted last month, with Romney dropping from 18 percent to 11 percent.
“Are Republicans switching from Romney to Trump? Some are, but it’s a lot more complicated than that, as you would expect with 11 potential hats in the ring,” adds Holland. “Only one in five Trump supporters say that Romney would be their second choice. It looks like Trump pulls as much support from Gingrich and Palin as from Romney, and Romney’s support would go down even if Trump were not in the list of potential candidates.”
Not necessarily a good poll for Mitt Romney who earlier announced a Presidential exploratory committee, Tim Pawlenty who has already announced and Newt Gingrich who has been pseudo-running for over a year. Sarah Palin will likely not run and has been making no moves to do so.
But, who do Republican voters really want?
According to the survey, more than seven in ten Republicans say that regardless of whom they would support, they’d like to see Huckabee run for the party’s presidential nomination, with two-thirds saying the same thing about Romney.
But that figure drops to 56 percent for Trump, with 43 percent saying they don’t want to see him run. By a narrower 53 to 47 percent margin, they would like to see Palin make a bid for the White House, and by a 51 to 45 percent margin, they would like to see Gingrich run.
I would say a fresh face but if that is not available, then MIke Huckabee – if he runs.
-
Barack Obama, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 Florida Poll Watch: Romney 48% Vs. Obama 43% and Huckabee 49% Vs. Obama 44%
According to the latest Sachs/Mason-Dixon Poll.
President Obama Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:
- Approve – 43%
- Disapprove – 56%
President Obama Job Approval Vs. Disapproval among Independent Voters:
- Approve – 34%
- Disapprove – 56%
For the Republican Nomination:
- Mitt Romney – 23%
- Mike Huckabee – 18%
- Donald Trump – 13%
- Newt Gingrich – 11%
- Tim Pawlenty – 8%
- Sarah Palin – 5%
- Mitch Daniels – 4%
- Ron Paul – 3%
- Michele Bachmann – 1%
Most interesting here is that Tim Pawlenty is polling better than Sarah Palin and so is Donald Trump.
Head to Head:- Romney 48% Vs. Obama 43%
- Huckabee 49% Vs. Obama 44%
- Trump 40% Vs. Obama 48%
- Palin 39% Vs. Obama 51%
So, what does this all mean?
Looks like Mitt Romney who announced his exploratory Presidential committee today has a leg up in this race, especially if Mike Huckabee does not run.
President Obama who won Florida by 3 points in 2008 may have a tough time in 2012 unless the GOP were to nominate someone like Sarah Palin or Donald Trump.
The GOP needs to win Florida and its 29 electoral votes in order to beat the incumbent President Obama and chances look good that they will.
-
Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 Florida GOP Poll Watch: Romney 18% Huckabee 18% Gingrich 18% Palin 15% Bachmann 7%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
- Mitt Romney – 18%
- Mike Huckabee – 18%
- Newt Gingrich – 18%
- Sarah Palin – 15%
- Michele Bachmann – 7%
- Ron Paul – 6%
- Tim Pawlenty – 6%
- Haley Barbour – 3%
But, Romney was thought of as the front runner in Florida since he won 31% of the vote in 2008 vs. only 13% for Mike Huckabee. So, Romney has fallen and Huckabee has increased some.
The reason Romney isn’t really proving to be the favorite in Florida is a lack of support from voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative,’ who at 40% constitute the largest share of the primary electorate in the state. Romney’s favorability with them is only 59%, placing him well behind Huckabee’s 81%, Gingrich’s 73%, Palin’s 71%, and even Ron Paul’s 60%. Only 12% of those voters say he’s their choice for the nomination, putting him firmly in fourth place.
Then, there are some other scenarios, should Huckabee and/or Palin not run. And, even with Rudy Giuliani in the field.
Testing a scenario in which Huckabee chose not to run, Gingrich leads Romney 24-23 with Palin at 19%. Testing a scenario in which Palin chose not to run, Huckabee leads with 24% to 22% for both Romney and Gingrich. In a scenario where both Huckabee and Palin sat the race out, Gingrich leads with 30% to 28% for Romney, 11% for Bachmann, and 10% for Pawlenty. Throwing Rudy Giuliani in the mix as a potential candidate you get basically a four way tie at the top with Huckabee, Gingrich, and Romney at 17%, Giuliani at 16%, and Palin at 11%.
So, what does this all mean?
Florida is up for grabs – no front runner.
-
President 2012 Video: GOP Uses Social Media to Respond to Obama Campaign Launch
Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s Response to Obama Campaign Announcement. April 4, 2011Quite a difference from the 2008 campaign.
If the Republicans’ response to President Barack Obama’s campaign launch Monday is any indication, social media will play a major role in the 2012 election.
Shortly after Obama’s first video for the campaign went up, Tim Pawlenty, the former Minnesota governor and potential GOP candidate for the 2012 presidential race, released a YouTube retort. The video (below), which has the urgent music of an action film, features Pawlenty responding to an Obama sound bite, by asking, “How can America win the future when we’re losing the present?” Pawlenty concludes, “In order for America to take a new direction, it’s going to take a new president.”
Since its release Monday, the video has gotten about 53,000 views, compared with 168,000 for Obama’s. Pawlenty also released the video on his Facebook Page, which has 81,000 fans. Obama has close to 19 million Facebook fans.
Thanks to Twitter and Facebook, the GOP has made great strides in technological aided communication since the 2008 campaign. This was evident in the 2010 midterm elections and will be expanded during the coming election cycle.
-
President 2012 New Jersey Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Running Even with President Obama
According to the latest Farleigh Dickinson Poll.
For the GOP Nomination:
- Mike Huckabee – 21%
- Mitt Romney – 20%
- Sarah Palin – 12%
- Chris Christie – 10%
- Newt Gingrich – 10%
- Tim Pawlenty – 5%
Head to Head with the President:
- Obama – 46% Vs. Huckabee – 46%
- Obama – 44% Vs. Romney – 43%
- Obama – 46% Vs. Christie – 40%
- Obama – 54% Vs. Palin – 34%
- Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 37%
- Obama – 48% Vs. Pawlenty – 34%
Among independent voters:
Christie also shows appeal among independent voters. While Palin runs behind Obama 34%-52% among independents, Christie runs ahead of Obama with independents 43%-40%. Similarly, Gingrich loses to the president 40%-45% among independents, and Pawlenty comes in behind by 33%-41%. “Christie can appeal to voters beyond the party base in a way that some other big-name Republicans can’t and won’t,” Woolley added.
An interesting poilling result in what is generally considered a deep blue state. Mike Huckabee again is polling well whereas Sarah Palin is NOT.
I wonder if Mike Huckabee might be reconsidering his seeming ambivalence to running for the Presidency?
Exit question: How well would Mike Huckabee poll if Sarah Palin declared she was NOT a canddate?
-
Herman Cain, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Continues to Lead in Positive Intensity Tracking
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Mike Huckabee continues to generate the strongest favorable reactions from Republicans who recognize him, with a Positive Intensity Score of 26. Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann follow, with Positive Intensity Scores of 20. Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain are at 19, and Sarah Palin is at 18.
Isn’t it interesting the two relative new candidates in Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain are polling so well? Also, Mitch Daniels scores rose. Seems Republicans like the prospect of a new group of candidates.
Although Tim Pawlenty announced the formation of a presidential exploratory committee last week, there was no change in his positioning in Gallup’s March 14-27 polling compared with the previous two-week rolling average.
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels’ and Romney’s Positive Intensity Scores each rose by five points from two weeks ago — Daniels’ from 10 to 15, and Romney’s from 15 to 20. This week’s update puts Romney in a tie for second place behind Huckabee for the first time.
This marks the first report on Republicans’ views of Herman Cain, a former restaurant association executive from Georgia, who has formed a presidential exploratory committee. Cain is not well known among Republicans — 21% recognize his name — but generates enthusiasm among those who do know him, giving him an overall Positive Intensity Score of 19.
-
GOP Presidential Poll Watch: Pawlenty Begins Race for 2012 with Only 41% Name Recognition
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who this week became the first major Republican to announce the formation of a presidential exploratory committee, has 41% name recognition among Republicans nationwide. He trails a number of other potential GOP presidential candidates on this measure.
Let’s face it, former Minnesota Governor tim Pawlenty will NOT be the 2012 Presidential nominee. Pawlenty is really running for either the 2012 Vice Presidential nomination or for 2016 when there will not be an incumbent President running for re-election.
Here is a chart on intensity scores:
Here, Tim Pawlenty is tied with Mitt Romney, but Romney will spend Pawlenty under the table. Plus, Romney is assured a primary victory in New Hampshire early on.The bottom line:
Name recognition is a necessary ingredient in a politician’s race to win his or her party’s nomination for president. The last eight Republicans who won their party’s presidential nomination — John McCain, George W. Bush, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, and Barry Goldwater — were well-known and well-established politicians. Even George W. Bush, who was a state governor with no national experience in the year before he won the Republican nomination, had a recognition score of over 80% when Gallup first measured him in February 1999, albeit aided in part by his famous last name.
Additionally, Barack Obama, who stands as an example of an individual who came from relative obscurity to national prominence, had a name recognition score of over 75% by March 2007, the year before he gained the Democratic nomination.
Pawlenty and Barbour thus face a serious challenge as they begin their quests to gain their party’s nomination. Well under half of their party’s rank-and-file members across the country at this point, less than a year before the first primaries and caucuses take place, know who they are. Both Pawlenty and Barbour, as well as other Republicans who are expected to formally announce their candidacies over the next few months, will be crisscrossing the country for the remainder of the year in an effort to make themselves known — and liked — by potential GOP primary voters. Gallup’s weekly tracking and reporting on the name recognition and Positive Intensity Scores of potential Republican presidential candidates will gauge how successful the candidates are in these endeavors.