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President 2012: Obama = President Zero
I think the moniker will stick.It took the Republican National Committee exactly 94 minutes to coin a new, demeaning title for Barack Obama: President Zero.
In an e-mail to reporters, the committee took note of the worst jobs report in nearly a year, saying that there has been “two and a half years of Obamanomics and nothing to show for it.”
The monthly report, which showed a 17,000-job gain among private employers but no growth over all, provides Mr. Obama’s Republican rivals with the perfect opportunity to criticize him as they prepare to gather for another nationally televised debate next week.
And it gives Mr. Obama an even more gloomy backdrop for the jobs speech he will give to a joint session of Congress next Thursday. In the speech, Mr. Obama is expected to call for a renewed national effort to put people back to work and trim the nation’s deficit.
In the meantime, the Republicans competing for their party’s nomination used the latest jobs numbers to slam the president for his stewardship of the nation’s economy.
Obama certainly has NO record on the economy on which to run for re-election. This bankruptcy of a California company which was propped up by American taxpayer stimulus funds is a case in point.
But, more on point are today’s economic numbers:
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Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Increases in August – Underemployment Worsens
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is at 9.1% at the end of August — up from 8.8% at the end of July.
This data further confirm Gallup’s mid-month prediction that the August unemployment rate that the government will report Friday will be higher than the 9.1% it reported in July — barring another sizable decline in the U.S. workforce or an unusual seasonal adjustment.
The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work is at 9.4% at the end of August — up from 9.2% in mid-August and at the end of July.
Underemployment Worsens
Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is 18.5% at the end of August — up from 18.0% at the end of July.
The chart:
Remember no American President has been re-elected with an unemployment rate above 8 per cent, except for ronald Reagan where the trend was markedly toward more employment. Hence, this is why President Obama is giving a “JOBS” speech next Thursday.
While the dismal job situation is a negative for the economic outlook, unemployment is generally seen as a lagging indicator. Americans’ worries about potentially being laid off are much more of a leading indicator, and Americans are now worried about losing their jobs to the same degree they were in 2009. People are likely worried about their job situation both because their Economic Confidence is low, and because they fear their companies may be scaling back on hiring. When a large percentage of Americans are worried about their jobs, it does not bode well for consumer spending or the prospects for another recession.
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Poll Watch: American Unemployment Rate Up to 9.1% in Mid-August
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 9.0% in mid-August — compared with 8.8% at the end of July and 9.1% in mid-August 2010.
In the meantime, underemployment as measured by Gallup shows some modest improvement.
Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is 18.2% in mid-August — compared with 18.0% at the end of July and 18.3% in mid-August 2010.
The chart:
The youngest and oldest workers continue to struggle in the economy. Also, the less educated.
One worrisome aspect of the current situation is that the U.S. economy simply has not been growing fast enough — as reflected in first half GDP — to create the number of new jobs necessary to meet population growth, let alone significantly reduce the unemployment rate. This is consistent with Gallup’s finding that unemployment now is essentially no better than it was at this time in 2010.
In particular, it appears Americans 65 or older who want to continue to work are having more of a problem finding a job than they did a year ago. Unemployment among this group increased to 8.2% this year from 6.7% a year ago. It may be that more baby boomers want to or need to keep working as they reach retirement age. Or, the losses on Wall Street over the past couple of years may be making many older Americans postpone retirement. Whatever the reasons, the job situation facing older Americans seems to be deteriorating.
At the other end of the age spectrum, unemployment hovers around the 12% level among those aged 18 to 29 (at 12.4% in mid-August, up from 11.9% a year ago) and among those with a high school education or less (11.9%, vs. 12.0%). Continued high unemployment among these two groups supports the notion that the prolonged and historically high unemployment rates of the past several years signify a serious structural unemployment problem in the U.S.
And, regionally employment in the Eastern part of the United states appears to have deteriorated from a year ago. It is unchanged in the South while unemployment has declined in the West and Midwest.
So, what are the implications?
President Obama and incumbent Members of Congress are looking for improving employment numbers. They are not and remember NO incumbent President has been re-elected with a national unemployment figure above 8 per cent, unless the trend like in the Reagan years is demonstrably improving.
The economy is stagnant and unemployment is NOT improving.
A danger sign for incumbent POLS, particularly with Senior Citizen voters who DO turn out and VOTE.
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Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Rate Unchanged in July – 8.8%
According to the latest Gallup Poll.U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is at 8.8% at the end of July, showing essentially no change from June 2011 (8.7%) or July a year ago (8.9%).
Underemployment Shows Modest Improvement
Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is at 18.0% at the end of July. This improvement from 18.3% at the end of last month and 18.4% at the end of July 2010 is largely the result of the July decline in the number of part-time workers wanting full-time work.
The chart:
I find it interesting that Chicago Mayor and former Obama Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel this morning is attacking Mitt Romney for his jobs record in Massachusetts while he was governor. With this jobs record, President Obama could not be re-elected to any office. Voters simply don’t care what Romney did or did not do years ago, but want to know what Obama is doing NOW.
The Gallup Poll unemployment rate is measured differently than the government’s which will be released tomorrow. Stay tuned for that number.
The lack of improvement in year-over-year U.S. unemployment is consistent with the revised GDP results showing anemic economic growth at best during the first half of 2011. The U.S. economy simply has not been growing fast enough to create the number of new jobs necessary to significantly reduce the unemployment rate.
However, there are some bright spots in the jobs arena. Gallup finds unemployment improved among those aged 50 to 64 and among college graduates when compared with a year ago. Similarly, the unemployment situation in the East, West, and Midwest shows modest improvement over last year, while that in the South has deteriorated.
In the more immediate term, the decrease in the number of people working part-time but looking for full-time work suggests employers may be putting more part-time employees in full-time jobs, at least for the back-to-school sales period. This good news is by comparison not only to last month, but also to last year.
Overall, Gallup’s most recent modeling of the jobs situation, including unemployment and job creation, suggests that the government on Friday is likely to report no change in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in July from June. While this modeling is based on the government’s mid-month reference week, Gallup’s data show that the weak jobs trend continued even during the last half of the month. If the government report picks up some of these late-month results, the official U.S. unemployment rate could actually increase, depending on how the government applies its seasonal adjustments.
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American Unemployment Increases in 28 States in June
The unemployment rate increased in 28 states in June, reflecting the nationwide increase to 9.2% from 9.1% over the month, the Labor Department said. Some 14 states saw their unemployment rate hold steady while eight logged decreases.
The U.S. economy added a paltry 18,000 jobs in June, as measured by a separate national survey, and an average of just 21,500 over the past two months – a disappointing result that has raised big questions about the sustainability of the nation’s economic recovery. The regional unemployment data show that the states that were hardest hit by the recession continue to have the toughest road in recovery.
For instance, California, Florida and Nevada — all three of which were hit hard by the housing bust — all had unemployment rates well over 10%. Nevada, at 12.4%, continues to have the nation’s highest unemployment rate, as the near-halt in homebuilding activity and steep drop in construction jobs continues to weigh heavily on the state’s economy.
Meantime, states that are rich in natural resources continue to outperform the nation. The lowest unemployment rate, 3.2%, was in oil-rich North Dakota, followed by Nebraska (4.1%) and South Dakota (4.8%) – both big farming states.
The Obama Administration must be extremely worried with these results.
Hope is not on the way and President Obama’s re-election prospects will dim, should unemployment NOT dramatically improve.
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Poll Watch: American Unemployment at 8.9% Mid-July With Underemployment at 18.3%
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is at 8.9% in the middle of July — up from 8.7% at the end of June. Unemployment was at 9.3% at this same time a year ago.
The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work is 9.4% in mid-July — down from 9.6% at the end of June. However, more Americans are working part time but seeking full-time work in mid-July 2011 than was the case in mid-July 2010 (9.0%).
Underemployment Shows No Improvement
Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is at 18.3% in mid-July — precisely the same as at the end of June and in mid-July 2010.
The chart:
So, what does this all mean?
American unemployment will continue to dog the Obama administration throughout the summer. The job situation is about the same as last year and there appear to be no help on the way.
Gallup’s modeling of its most recent unemployment results suggests an early July deterioration in the U.S. jobs situation. This may be partly a lagged effect of the economic soft patch during the first two quarters of 2011. It may also be a sign that many employers are pulling back on their hiring intentions, as slower-than-expected economic growth has reduced their sales and revenue expectations for the second half of the year.
Company hiring may also be suffering from the political rhetoric surrounding the debate over raising the federal debt limit. There seems to be a lack of clarity about exactly what would happen if the federal government is temporarily unable to pay its obligations — although everyone knows such an outcome would not be good. In addition, there are uncertainties on Wall Street, financial problems in Europe, and a sharp drop in economic confidence on Main Street. It is hard to hire when business prospects become so much more uncertain than usual.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in his testimony before the Congress last week, repeated his view that the weakness in today’s economy is temporary and that economic activity will pick up in the second half of 2011. At this point, the lack of job growth as reflected by Gallup’s unemployment, underemployment, and job creation data does not support that assessment. Instead, Gallup’s survey results tend to imply that the current economic soft patch may be somewhat less transitory than the Fed chief hopes.
The chart as to how Gallup’s unemployment rate differs from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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President 2012: Romney Slams Obama for Poor Employment Numbers
Hope and changey will be coming from the GOP. Help is on the way, no doubt.Republican White House hopefuls on Friday charged that dismal new jobs figures reflected President Barack Obama’s botched handling of the economy, US voters’ top grievance ahead of the 2012 elections.
“Today’s abysmal jobs report confirms what we all know — that President Obama has failed to get this economy moving again,” thundered the field’s frontrunner, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.
“With their cavalier attitude about the economy, the White House has turned the audacity of hope into the audacity of indifference,” he said, playing off one of the key slogans of Obama’s historic 2008 presidential campaign.
Romney’s broadside came after the US Labor Department said that the ailing US economy, still digging out from the 2008 global meltdown, had generated a paltry 18,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate had ticked up to 9.2 percent.
“Today?s unemployment report is another stark reminder of the failure of President Obama?s economic policies,” charged Republican Representative Michele Bachmann, who has surged in recent polls.
Bachmann, who is close the archconservative “Tea Party” movement, cited news reports that US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner aimed to step down pending a deal to raise the US debt ceiling and avert an early August default.
“We can only hope that the president will be right behind him after the next election,” said the Minnesota lawmaker, who accused Obama of putting the US economy into “freefall.”
There you go. Romney and Bachmann will be tag teaming against Obama.
And, there is your potential GOP ticket in 2012.
Did you see the poll numbers in Pennsylvania today? Obama is sinking like a stone and sinking fast. -
Poll Watch: Job Creation Index Edges Higher But Employers Still NOT Eager to Hire
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Gallup’s Job Creation Index was at +15 in June. While this does not differ much from the +14 of May or the +13 of April, it is the highest since September 2008’s +16.
The Job Creation Index has increased steadily if marginally in 2011. This continues a pattern that began after the Index matched its low point of -5 in April 2009, and is consistent with the improvement in the overall U.S. job situation over the past couple of years.
Hiring has increased moderately in 2011.
The Job Creation Index score of +15 in June is based on 33% of workers nationwide saying their employers are hiring and 18% saying their employers are letting workers go. Between 18% and 19% of workers have said their employers are reducing staff size throughout the first half of 2011. However, there has been a slight increase in the percentage saying their companies are hiring employees and expanding their workforces, from 29% in January to 33% in June.
Here is the graph.
And, what about regional job creation? Hiring patterns are similar.
So, what does this all mean?
Job creation is slow and has remained so. With vast numbers of unemployed Americans, it is doubtful that robust job growth will be realized before the Presidential race for 2012 begins after this summer.
President Obama will have to run on this record of anemic job growth and high unemployment.
Gallup’s Job Creation Index, at +15 for June 2011, is much improved over June 2010’s +8 and June 2009’s -3 readings. One reason for this improvement, according to employee reports, is that the nation’s employers are holding on to their workers; the percentage currently letting people go is just about where it was in June 2008. Additionally, the percentage reporting their employer is hiring has increased slightly during the first half of 2011.
However, companies are still not in a hurry to hire. The percentage saying their employers were hiring in June is down seven points from January 2008, when the recession was just getting underway. New jobs are being created at an anemic pace compared with what is needed to lower the U.S. unemployment and underemployment rates. These job creation trends are consistent with Gallup’s recent unemployment report that shows the current job situation has seen little year-over-year improvement.
These job creation findings are also consistent with the recent trend in jobless claims, whose four-week average is currently 426,750. This is better than the year-ago numbers, but — like the job creation trend — is not enough of an improvement to support a decline in the unemployment rate. In this regard, the modest improvement in Gallup’s Job Creation Index over recent months is also consistent with the consensus among economists that there will be essentially no change when the government reports the June unemployment rate on Friday.
Right now, Gallup’s job data suggest that job market conditions are slightly more positive than the government’s numbers show. Although economists declared the recession over two years ago, job growth has a long way to go, with the current Job Creation Index nowhere near the +26 seen just as the recession was beginning in January 2008. -
President 2012: In Key Battleground States Unemployment Has Increased Since October 2008
Electoral College vote map of Larry Sabato
Chris illizza over at the Washington Post looks at key battleground states for the Presidential race of 2012 and gives the data. You know the question in one of the Presidential debates to President Obama will be (like GOP challenger Ronald Reagan asked President Jimmy Carter in 1980): “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”Well, with the regards to unemployment the news is not good for President Obama.
And that raw political reality could put President Obama in a difficult spot as he prepares to seek another four years in the White House amid conflicting signs about the relative health of the economy.
The state-by-state unemployment numbers released late last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics tell the story.
In every one of the 14 swing states heading into 2012 — Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — the unemployment rate has risen since October 2008.
The increases range from the tiny — just a 0.7-point jump in Minnesota and New Hampshire — to the titanic in places like Nevada (up 4.4 points) and Florida (up 3.6).
And, Obama’s only response will be: “You should have seen how bad it would have been.”
I don’t know if this is going to wash in Nevada and Florida.
But, on the other hand of these 14 swing states that Cillizza mentions only 4 have May unemployment above the national average. But, you know that is spin and unemployment generally is worse since President Obama has been in office.
President Reagan beat Jimmy Carter on the answer to the “better off” question. He won re-election because while unemployment was high, it was improving.
That “trend line” vote is why the late President Ronald Reagan won a second term overwhelmingly in 1984 despite the fact that the unemployment rate was at 7.3 percent in October of the election year. (It had been at 10.3 percent as recently as March 1983.)
The best way for Obama to counteract the “are you better off” question is to have evidence to point to that things are turning around — that whether or not you believe the country was on the brink of an economic catastrophe you see signs that your financial situation is improving and have reason to hope the future will be brighter.
The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll suggests he’s not there yet.
No, President Obama is not there yet and unless the economy improves very quickly, he will go the way of Jimmy Carter.
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Poll Watch: Unemployment Remains at 2010 Levels – Underemployment Remains High
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is at 8.9% in mid-June — down from 9.2% at the end of May and 9.1% in mid-June a year ago.
The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work is 9.7%.
And, underemployment is down slightly but still as high as in mid-June 2010. Underemployment is a measure that combines the percentage of unemployed with the percentage working part-time but want full-time work.
So, what does this all mean?Although there is a small improvement in American unemployment, the unemployment rate remains high – around 2010 levels. Underemployment has not improved since last year. And, since last year’s rates were improving like 2011, this may be due to seasonal employment, which means the job market is flat.
Not a good report for the Obama Administration and the President’s re-election campaign.
Gallup’s U.S. unemployment and underemployment data indicate a modest improvement in job market conditions in mid-June compared with the end of May. This may partly result from a seasonal increase in employer hiring; Gallup’s data do not adjust for such changes. Still, underemployment remains at 2010 levels.
However, unemployment and underemployment tend to lag economic activity. Gallup’s employment data from the second quarter of the year are consistent with the modest 1.8% U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2011. But Gallup’s measures did not show the improvement suggested by the government’s unemployment numbers earlier this year or the deterioration during April and May. Instead, they have shown the 2011 unemployment situation to be similar to that of 2010.
